Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.

[PointOfViewGun]

Well, while we're discussing holes...if a depression will happen with or without wide government restrictions, then what's the harm of lifting all the restrictions and just allowing people the freedom to choose to stay indoors?

The harm of lifting the restrictions with a full-blown pandemic in play is causing many unnecessary deaths. We're not dealing with a personal problem here. People who choose to go out would still put people who choose to stay home in danger as those people or someone in their household still needs to go out for supplies. Moreover, people who choose to go out pretty much prolong the pandemic, which in turn would prolong the effects of the depression. Depending on how many people choose to go out if the healthcare system cannot handle the load you'd also start seeing deaths unrelated to COVID19 due to shortage of supplies.

[Pontifex Maximus]

Ask those who are dying on the streets or in their homes in Brasil because local healthcare system is overwhelmed.

If the Americans can't follow basic precautions from spreading the virus too quickly, and so far it seems obvious that they can't, that is how it would go down.

You're confusing Brazil with the US, the difference is the striking lack of favelas. The US =/= Brazil, and our healthcare system is notably underwhelmed. If you want to make an actual plausible comparison to a country that has been more lax in lock down measures on a whole than the US, look the Sweden and Finland.

[Infidel144]

Covid Patients Testing Positive After Recovery Aren’t Infectious, Study Shows

Researchers are finding evidence that patients who test positive for the coronavirus after recovering aren’t capable of transmitting the infection, and could have the antibodies that prevent them from falling sick again.

Scientists from the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention studied 285 Covid-19 survivors who had tested positive for the coronavirus after their illness had apparently resolved, as indicated by a previous negative test result. The so-called re-positive patients weren’t found to have spread any lingering infection, and virus samples collected from them couldn’t be grown in culture, indicating the patients were shedding non-infectious or dead virus particles.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n-t-infectious

[Infidel144]

Although it would be interesting to see how Germany is counting victims since that could explain some of the disparity between the two countries.

I was able to get into the Australian article that I had quoted from earlier, and that then went behind a paywall. What it said for Germany:

"In Germany, on the other hand, any underlying health conditions – often heart disease – are usually noted as the cause of death, rather than the coronavirus.
Germany has also tested a broader spectrum of the population – including children and those who showed the mildest of symptoms at the earliest stages, including contacts of known infections – rather than the Italian and British methods of mainly testing the very sick who have been hospitalised.
Germany says they have found 63,000 infections, of which there have been 545 deaths, a death rate of 7 per 1m population."
In Germany, on the other hand, any underlying health conditions – often heart disease – are usually noted as the cause of death, rather than the coronavirus.
Germany has also tested a broader spectrum of the population – including children and those who showed the mildest of symptoms at the earliest stages, including contacts of known infections – rather than the Italian and British methods of mainly testing the very sick who have been hospitalised."
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/wor...522be679fa63c7

(Article was from over a month and a half ago, so numbers are not current)

[sumskilz]

Covid Patients Testing Positive After Recovery Aren’t Infectious, Study Shows

Researchers are finding evidence that patients who test positive for the coronavirus after recovering aren’t capable of transmitting the infection, and could have the antibodies that prevent them from falling sick again.

Scientists from the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention studied 285 Covid-19 survivors who had tested positive for the coronavirus after their illness had apparently resolved, as indicated by a previous negative test result. The so-called re-positive patients weren’t found to have spread any lingering infection, and virus samples collected from them couldn’t be grown in culture, indicating the patients were shedding non-infectious or dead virus particles.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n-t-infectious

This is good news, but kind of expected. Those tests detect the presence of virus RNA even if the RNA has been completely deactivated, in other words even if it's dead (if you consider viruses to be alive). It's also expected, based on other coronaviruses, that those recovered should be immune for some period of time, maybe two years on average if it's like SARS-CoV-1.

I was able to get into the Australian article that I had quoted from earlier, and that then went behind a paywall. What it said for Germany:

"In Germany, on the other hand, any underlying health conditions – often heart disease – are usually noted as the cause of death, rather than the coronavirus.
Germany has also tested a broader spectrum of the population – including children and those who showed the mildest of symptoms at the earliest stages, including contacts of known infections – rather than the Italian and British methods of mainly testing the very sick who have been hospitalised.
Germany says they have found 63,000 infections, of which there have been 545 deaths, a death rate of 7 per 1m population."
In Germany, on the other hand, any underlying health conditions – often heart disease – are usually noted as the cause of death, rather than the coronavirus.
Germany has also tested a broader spectrum of the population – including children and those who showed the mildest of symptoms at the earliest stages, including contacts of known infections – rather than the Italian and British methods of mainly testing the very sick who have been hospitalised."
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/wor...522be679fa63c7

If that's the case, their numbers now don't look very good.

[PointOfViewGun]

You're confusing Brazil with the US, the difference is the striking lack of favelas. The US =/= Brazil, and our healthcare system is notably underwhelmed. If you want to make an actual plausible comparison to a country that has been more lax in lock down measures on a whole than the US, look the Sweden and Finland.

Sweden has a quite better healthcare system than USA. Nonetheless, their death rates per capita is quite higher than USA. In addition to Sweden having better healthcare its culture is also quite different than that of USA. There prevalence of obesity is much higher in USA for example. If Sweden taken the measure USA states have taken their death rates would be much lower. Even then we know that Sweden had to change its relaxed stance midway to keep the cases lower.

Finland had quite strict lock down measures. I'm not sure why you'd include them int he more relaxed countries.

[Gaidin]

You're confusing Brazil with the US, the difference is the striking lack of favelas. The US =/= Brazil, and our healthcare system is notably underwhelmed. If you want to make an actual plausible comparison to a country that has been more lax in lock down measures on a whole than the US, look the Sweden and Finland.

Forget Brazil, look at the US.

Look at Wisconsin. State Supreme Court said the state had to lift lockdown. So they did. Milwaukee and Madison said "nuh-uh, we're not ready," and put in place local lockdowns. Maryland is in phase 1 and part of its phase 1 is letting counties open at their own pace. Montgomery County and Prince George's County, two of Marylands's highest GDP counties are still in full lockdown. Every other county are stepping into phase 1 and opening up services and restaurants of some sort. Texas is going full speed ahead, but Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio kept local lockdowns in place. Atlanta, Georgia warned local citizens to shelter-in-place as Georgia rushed their opening.

The thing is, most of the people hit by COVID, most of the people outright killed by COVID in America, happened in urban America. Where people live packed close together. People aren't going to listen to Governors more interested in cooking the numbers(Kemp, DeSantis) before they listen to their mayors that were managing the local systems in place. They're not going to listen to the Courts that say the State has no right to say shelter-in-place when the legislature forced them to stand in line in a disease ridden city in Wisconsin. And as a Maryland resident, well, county by county is sort of a thing for us.

Maryland actually is cooperating with its governor though because it was a plan formulated between its Executive and its Counties.

Wisconsin is limping along at 2/5 strength because its Legislature fought its Governor to the Courts and now the Red Counties are the only economy they have and the people hardest hit aren't willing to put their lives at risk for the farmland. Same for Georgia. Texas.

One fact you better pay attention to. This is about more than dollar signs. The Red Counties need the Blue Cities for the economy to work. And if the only thing they can see fit is to try to put a leash on them and drag them into the streets with a whip in the middle of this mess to force them to work, they will literally tell them to screw right the frak off. In fact, in many states that have tried to rush opening, they already have.

[Phier]

Sweden has a quite better healthcare system than USA

Sometimes I just log in for the luz.

Anyways while the death rate was slightly higher for Sweden than the US per capita (something like by .005% depending on which numbers you use) lets not forget that exposure matters too. By sheltering in place you are also prolonging exposures. Sweden will most likely bottom out faster in the long run. I expect deaths to be similar with the US having deaths for a longer period of time.

[tgoodenow]

. This is about more than dollar signs. The Red Counties need the Blue Cities for the economy to work.

Is that why California is begging for a bailout?

[Gaidin]

Is that why California is begging for a bailout?

https://www.newsreview.com/sacrament...tent?oid=10287

Northern California would like to have a word with you.

[PointOfViewGun]

Sometimes I just log in for the luz.

Anyways while the death rate was slightly higher for Sweden than the US per capita (something like by .005% depending on which numbers you use) lets not forget that exposure matters too. By sheltering in place you are also prolonging exposures. Sweden will most likely bottom out faster in the long run. I expect deaths to be similar with the US having deaths for a longer period of time.

Sheltering in place prolongs exposure? In what universe is that true? Sweden does have a better healthcare system. Their population is healthier. Yet, they had 30% more deaths compared to USA when we normalize the populations. If the number ever gets down to the same that still means Sweden did something worse than USA. Of course, they still had to enact a number of lock down measures as well as the death numbers were increasing.

[Genava]

Sheltering in place prolongs exposure? In what universe is that true? Sweden does have a better healthcare system. Their population is healthier. Yet, they had 30% more deaths compared to USA when we normalize the populations. If the number ever gets down to the same that still means Sweden did something worse than USA. Of course, they still had to enact a number of lock down measures as well as the death numbers were increasing.

And anyway they are getting a recession because the world is in a recession so they did that for nothing.

[antaeus]

Sheltering in place prolongs exposure? In what universe is that true? Sweden does have a better healthcare system. Their population is healthier. Yet, they had 30% more deaths compared to USA when we normalize the populations. If the number ever gets down to the same that still means Sweden did something worse than USA. Of course, they still had to enact a number of lock down measures as well as the death numbers were increasing.

More accurately, shelter-in-place postpones exposure if done poorly or unevenly or if it is lifted at different rates in neighbouring areas before infections have trailed off. Prolonging the infection period.

[PointOfViewGun]

More accurately, shelter-in-place postpones exposure if done poorly or unevenly or if it is lifted at different rates in neighbouring areas before infections have trailed off. Prolonging the infection period.

Sure, poorly doing anything is a bad idea. Phier specifically pointed at sheltering in place, not opening up. Sheltering in place doesn't postpone exposure by itself anyways. You could bring down exposure to a manageable level that exposure risk is not postponed but greatly minimized.

[B. W.]

Here's an an idea: why don't we put Covid-19 patients in nursing homes...oh wait, several Democrat governors have already tried that.

[Ludicus]

Let's look at Iceland. Iceland has a tiny population: 340,994
Iceland, tests/1M pop: 169,000
Iceland has confirmed +- 1800 cases of the virus, but just 10 people have died. Iceland has tested +- 13% of its entire population. What they did? they used an early policy of testing ,tracking to find and isolate infected people, even when they had no symptoms.
Meanwhile in UK, Boris is now scrambling to resume testing and tracing, Boris Johnson pledges UK-wide coronavirus tracing by 1 June ...

Boris Johnson has pledged to have a UK-wide tracing operation to tackle coronavirus in place by 1 June run by 25,000 contact tracers.
His commitment at prime minister’s questions in the Commons came as the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, said there had been no effective tracing in the country for 10 weeks, since since 12 March when the government decided to drop the strategy.

The mortality rate of a country depends of several factors, for example, capability to test, trace, contain/ isolate and treat; number of available ICU beds, doctors, nurses; demographic factors of the country ex Italy, the share of elderly population is high; literacy rate; other factors, and above all, the breaking point of sustainability (lack of beds,ventilators ex, Brazil).

[Phier]

. Iceland has tested +- 13% of its entire population.

Oh god, did you compare Iceland to the UK?

My midsize American town has the population of Iceland (364,134) if you count the near by unincorporated areas.

The UK has 66.5 million.

The city of LA has enough unused tests to test 13% of Iceland.

Ok wait this gets better! I just did math.

The death rate for the US with Trump screwing everything up right?!

.028%

Death rate for Iceland, you know the tiny homogeneous nation isolated and not very visited?

.027%

Wow but they did a fantastic job!

[PointOfViewGun]

Oh god, did you compare Iceland to the UK?
My midsize American town has the population of Iceland (364,134) if you count the near by unincorporated areas.
The UK has 66.5 million.
The city of LA has enough unused tests to test 13% of Iceland.
Ok wait this gets better! I just did math.
The death rate for the US with Trump screwing everything up right?!
.028%
Death rate for Iceland, you know the tiny homogeneous nation isolated and not very visited?
.027%
Wow but they did a fantastic job!

Interesting math you got there. Let's normalize that. Iceland has 27.5 deaths per one million, meanwhile, USA has 283.6 deaths per one million. You can do the math for that too.

By the way, there are 1,562,714 cases in USA with 93,863 deaths (though apparently people that died in their homes or nursing homes are not counted yet) which puts the mortality rate at 6%. Iceland, on the other hand, has 1,803 cases with 10 deaths which puts the mortality rate at 0,55%.

How did you manage to get things so damn wrong?

[sumskilz]

At this point, I'd be careful around any member of the weasel family with a dry cough:

A person who worked on a farm where mink are bred to export their fur contracted the coronavirus from the animals, the Dutch Agriculture Minister said in a letter to parliament on Wednesday.

Outbreaks on mink farms in the Netherlands were first reported in April, when keepers noticed some animals having difficulty breathing, prompting a wider investigation.

In her letter, Carola Schouten acknowledged that earlier advisories from her office that people could infect animals, but not the other way around, was wrong. But she said the Netherlands’ Institute for Public Health still assesses as minimal the chance of transmission outside of the animals’ stalls.

Actually her letter before was stupid. If the animals are sick, they're definitely shedding the virus, and if the virus is now adapted to humans, which it obviously is, it should be easier to spread to humans than the other way around. It's just that people tend not to spend as much time caged together with mink as the mink themselves do.

EDIT: Dutch farm worker contracted coronavirus from mink: agriculture minister

[Infidel144]

Per this NBC anchor:
"JPMorgan has a devastating piece arguing that infection rates have declined — not increased — in states where lockdowns have ended, “even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.”"
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/...70459450978314
Per the Daily Mail:
"Coronavirus lockdowns have failed to alter the course of the pandemic but have instead 'destroyed millions of livelihoods', a JP Morgan study has claimed.

Falling infection rates since lockdowns were lifted suggest that the virus 'likely has its own dynamics' which are 'unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures', a report published by the financial services giant said."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...dy-claims.html

And per this site:
"Coronavirus infection rates have declined (not increased) in states where lockdowns have ended, JP Morgan Study shows"
https://techstartups.com/2020/05/20/...n-study-shows/

I cant find a link to the study itself.
Has anyone seen it?