Deteriorating Situation in Venezuela

[Heathen Hammer]

Colonial mentality? It's hilarious you saying that considering how many Latin American nation's themselves now recognize Juan Guaido as President. You keep trying to play this off as Western meddling but this issue is backed by more than just Western nation's.

That still doesn't mean anything.

Nor Russians or Chinese, or Cubans, or Turks.

Like I said, it is up to Venezuelans.

[Vanoi]

That still doesn't mean anything.

Oh it does. The crisis is pouring into Venezuela's neighboring countries. What they side the support is incredibly important. They themselves can put some pressure on Maduro.

And if they also support sanctions against Venezuela then Maduro is gone. You seriously act as if the West and Venezuela's neighbors don't have a say or what they say doesn't matter. That just doesn't match up to reality. But hey, go ahead and tell Maduro that none of this matters
We'll see how long he stays in power.

Like I said, it is up to Venezuelans.

Then let's have a UN and internationallly monitored recall referendum. Venezuela's Constitution allows for a recall referendum of the President since they do not allow impeachment.

[Love Mountain]

Juan Guaodo is probably going to be a dead or imprisoned elected official very soon.

So... it begins.

The Bank of England has blocked Nicolas Maduro's officials from withdrawing $1.2 billion worth of gold, Bloomberg reported, dealing a further blow to the embattled Venezuelan President as he tries to salvage his authority.According to the report, which cites unnamed people familiar with the matter, the gold is a significant part of the $8 billion in foreign reserves held by the Venezuelan central bank.
CNN has not been able to independently verify the report and is attempting to get a response from Maduro's officials.

[Vanoi]

If Guaido dies then he'll just become a martry. It would only confirm Western accusations and likley leading to Maduro's downfall.

[conon394]

If Guaido dies then he'll just become a martry. It would only confirm Western accusations and likley leading to Maduro's downfall.

Maybe maybe not it really comes down to who the generals back and who is going to pay them. Sadly enough. I'd be a lot more impressed with Guaido if he was demanding his nation leave OPEC and run its oil industry like Alaska or Norway and fund debit cards for everyone so they could get their yearly oil check... or services based on a long term plan considering the fluctuations in oil prices

[Heathen Hammer]

Oh it does. The crisis is pouring into Venezuela's neighboring countries. What they side the support is incredibly important. They themselves can put some pressure on Maduro.

There are also countries that support him, both in South America and abroad. Unless they plan to directly invade Venezuela or fund some Contra-style insurgency in there, it won't make a difference.

Then let's have a UN and internationallly monitored recall referendum. Venezuela's Constitution allows for a recall referendum of the President since they do not allow impeachment.

And who will monitor it and how would you ensure impartiality?

[Vanoi]

There are also countries that support him, both in South America and abroad.

Cuba, Bolivia, and Mexico are the only ones who support Maduro in some fashion. Coincidentally all leftist governments similar to Venezuela. The rest are just authoritarian governments or governments with geopolitical interests to support Maduro.

Unless they plan to directly invade Venezuela or fund some Contra-style insurgency in there, it won't make a difference.

Sanctions on the last industry they have will. Army isn't going to support you if you can't pay them.

And who will monitor it and how would you ensure impartiality?

Neutral third party observers. They will handle the referendum to ensure impartiality.

[Yayattasa]

Colonial mentality? It's hilarious you saying that considering how many Latin American nation's themselves now recognize Juan Guaido as President. You keep trying to play this off as Western meddling but this issue is backed by more than just Western nation's.

Latin America is Western, I don't get your point.
Regardless, they only followed Tramp around, they want some points with the guy, and have nothing to get from this apart from domestic bravado points. Intervention from Latin Americans will only come if they need to divert media attention from their corruption scandals.

[Heathen Hammer]

Cuba, Bolivia, and Mexico are the only ones who support Maduro in some fashion. Coincidentally all leftist governments similar to Venezuela. The rest are just authoritarian governments or governments with geopolitical interests to support Maduro.

And governments that that oppose him are also authoritarian to a degree or with geopolitical interests to oppose him. I don't see your point here.

Sanctions on the last industry they have will. Army isn't going to support you if you can't pay them.

Unless countries that support you bail you out financially.

Neutral third party observers. They will handle the referendum to ensure impartiality.

And how would you ensure their neutrality?

[Vanoi]

And governments that that oppose him are also authoritarian to a degree or with geopolitical interests to oppose him. I don't see your point here.

All of them? You got proof for that? I would love to see it.

Unless countries that support you bail you out financially.

Venezuela already owes Russia and China billions. You think they bail out a country that no longer makes any form of money? Without the oil industry, Venezuela is nothing.

And how would you ensure their neutrality?

Third party observer obviously. You could easily ask a country not involved in the dispute or an international organization to do so.

You can stop moving the goal posts. A free and fair referendum is possible. It's obvious you don't want one though. Maduro might actually lose right?

[Heathen Hammer]

All of them? You got proof for that? I would love to see it.

I didn't say all of them.

Venezuela already owes Russia and China billions. You think they bail out a country that no longer makes any form of money? Without the oil industry, Venezuela is nothing.

It depends on their geopolitical goals.

Third party observer obviously. You could easily ask a country not involved in the dispute or an international organization to do so.

You can stop moving the goal posts. A free and fair referendum is possible. It's obvious you don't want one though. Maduro might actually lose right?

Where did I say that I support Maduro? I only said I oppose foreign meddling in other countries affairs. You didn't really answer my question: how would you ensure their neutrality?

[Vanoi]

I didn't say all of them.

It depends on their geopolitical goals.

No one will bail out a country forever.

Where did I say that I support Maduro? I only said I oppose foreign meddling in other countries affairs.

That's not true. You've debated with me numerous times. You have no problem with foreign meddling in Syria or Ukraine. I think simply in this situation there isn't a side for you to support.

You didn't really answer my question: how would you ensure their neutrality?

Third party observers by definition wouldn't have anything to gain or lose from who wins and wouldn't be rooting for either side to ensure there isn't bias in favor of one side or the other.

I never said you supported Maduro. I said you don't want a referendum because he will lose.

[Heathen Hammer]

No one will bail out a country forever.

It largely depends on factors outside of Venezuela.

That's not true. You've debated with me numerous times. You have no problem with foreign meddling in Syria or Ukraine. I think simply in this situation there isn't a side for you to support.

No, I support the least of all evils in both cases. In this case specifically, foreign meddling is unnecessary. Maduro will have to change his economic policies, or he simply would be overthrown by his own people. There is no need for foreign intervention.

Third party observers by definition wouldn't have anything to gain or lose from who wins and wouldn't be rooting for either side to ensure there isn't bias in favor of one side or the other.

I never said you supported Maduro. I said you don't want a referendum because he will lose.

No, I said I don't think allowing foreign countries to take control of country's government institutions would produce democratic results. That always backfired terribly.

Like I said, the solution is to negotiate with both sides

[Vanoi]

It largely depends on factors outside of Venezuela.

Such as?

No, I support the least of all evils in both cases. In this case specifically, foreign meddling is unnecessary. Maduro will have to change his economic policies, or he simply would be overthrown by his own people. There is no need for foreign intervention.

There's no indication he is changing his economic policies. Some of us are not content waiting for the humanitarian disaster to get worse before helping. Nor the countries hosting refugees.

No, I said I don't think allowing foreign countries to take control of country's government institutions would produce democratic results.That always backfired terribly.

First off that's a claim with no evidence. Second I said neutral third party observers handling the referendum. Not taking control of government institutions.

Like I said, the solution is to negotiate with both sides[/QUOTE]
Negotiation haven't worked in years. Guaido should do a recall referendum as is their right under their Constitution.

[Heathen Hammer]

Such as?

Oil prices, geopolitical tensions, etc.

There's no indication he is changing his economic policies. Some of us are not content waiting for the humanitarian disaster to get worse before helping. Nor the countries hosting refugees.

There are countries like Saudi Arabia, Israel, Sudan, and others which already caused humanitarian disasters, yet we don't see you calling for invading them as well.

First off that's a claim with no evidence. Second I said neutral third party observers handling the referendum. Not taking control of government institutions.

Yet you still didn't explain how would you ensure that they are neutral.

[Vanoi]

Oil prices, geopolitical tensions, etc.

That's not an explanation of why Russia and China would continually bail out Venezuela since it would effectively not make much money to do anything.

There are countries like Saudi Arabia, Israel, Sudan, and others which already caused humanitarian disasters, yet we don't see you calling for invading them as well.

Quote me supporting an invasion please.

Yet you still didn't explain how would you ensure that they are neutral.

Third party observers aren't part of the dispute. That by definition makes them neutral.

[Heathen Hammer]

That's not an explanation of why Russia and China would continually bail out Venezuela since it would effectively not make much money to do anything.

Thats for Russia and China to decide. Geopolitical goals often outweigh financial ones.

Quote me supporting an invasion please.

"Some of us are not content waiting for the humanitarian disaster to get worse before helping."
"For every time the West has intervened in another country's problems and screwed up I can find times when the West did nothing and it still got worst to the point of dragging other countries into the issue anyways."
You clearly implied it.

Third party observers aren't part of the dispute. That by definition makes them neutral.

How do you know that countries that are not neutral wouldn't negotiation or pressure that neutral country to achieve desired result? I'm surprised I even have to point that out.

[Vanoi]

Thats for Russia and China to decide. Geopolitical goals often outweigh financial ones.

And these goals are? You are claiming China and Russia regardless of their own economies would continually bail out Venezuela every year?

Some of us are not content waiting for the humanitarian disaster to get worse before helping."
"For every time the West has intervened in another country's problems and screwed up I can find times when the West did nothing and it still got worst to the point of dragging other countries into the issue anyways."
You clearly implied it.

So no quotes? Intervention doesn't mean military intervention. I am debating with you right below a very peaceful option.

How do you know that countries that are not neutral wouldn't negotiation or pressure that neutral country to achieve desired result? I'm surprised I even have to point that out.

Back it up by UN Resolution and if necessary have a treaty signed by the disputing parties guaranteeing the results of the referendum.

[Heathen Hammer]

And these goals are? You are claiming China and Russia regardless of their own economies would continually bail out Venezuela every year?

depends on whether economic liability outweighs it being a geopolitical asset.

So no quotes? Intervention doesn't mean military intervention. I am debating with you right below a very peaceful option.

Your peaceful option isn't realistic.

Back it up by UN Resolution and if necessary have a treaty signed by the disputing parties guaranteeing the results of the referendum.

UN resolution? Seriously? I'm yet to see an example of this ever working.

[Vanoi]

depends on whether economic liability outweighs it being a geopolitical asset.

Which are? You just keep avoiding the question and not giving an answer. Probably you won't admit Russia China won't bail anyone out.

Your peaceful option isn't realistic.


UN resolution? Seriously? I'm yet to see an example of this ever working.

Except Sudan where a UN sponsored vote led to the creation of South Sudan. The idea that referendums don't work is at best. And you ignored my suggestion of a treaty.

The best option is for Guaido to declare a recall referendum as the Venezuelan Constitution allows.