Pence warns Turkey over its purchase of the S400

[ioannis76]

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/03/p...ing/index.html

Interesting bit here:

"Turkey must choose. Does it want to remain a critical partner of the most successful military alliance in the history of the world? Or does it want to risk the security of that partnership by making reckless decisions that undermine our alliance?" Pence said Wednesday.

How do you view that? Is it a thinly disguised threat that Turkey may be kicked out of NATO? Turkey has a critical geographic position. We are not talking about the development of the F 35 here, where Turkey can easily be removed from the program with a couple of months setback, removing Turkey from NATO could have serious repercussions for the capabilities of the alliance (and I am by no means positively disposed toward the country).
What do you believe will happen? Will Turkey back down (and lose face) on the S400 issue? Will there be other, less severe consequences for Turkey? Or will the US back down?

[Daruwind]

Erdogan is typical populist leader. He is trying to play both sides to get any advantage possible.

He is playing USA vs Russia, Russia vs USA, anybody ve Germany/Eu but his goal is mostly return Turkey to older glory. Right now middle-east is meddling ground for foreign powers but mostly power struggle between Iran and Saudi Araby. Turkey wants to become thrid major player or maybe even the leader or arabic world once again. But in order to achieve this, he must remain on edge balancing all big powers thus from time to time Russia (shooting down plane..) or USA (getting S400)

Turkey will not be kicked from NATO just for that, it is just one step in wrong direction. But if Turkey takes like dozens of small steps in next decade, who knows. On other hands, loosing NATO coverage will make Turkey troops and supporters yet another practise target for USA bombs in Syria...

[Daruwind]

Cannot edit

Anyway. Erdogan is trying to get cheap points for playing nationalism. You see how often he is trying to play other states...Germany, Russia, EU, USA. His home economical problems or even loosing support in recent election....It is same the with any populist leader anywhere. Like Putin, scoring cheap points for invading some land somewhere..the more desperate leader means more desperate solutions. Blaming USA for being enemy is just easy way. Erdogan will buy S400 so getting + points from Russia and thus alienating USA and then blaming USA for being unfriedly to get cheap + points home because those naughty evil Americanos without honour will not fullfill their trades....

[NorseThing]

From the original post:

The US believes that the Russian-system is incompatible with the F-35 jet, saying that Moscow could use it to gather intelligence on the aircraft.
"To me the incompatibility is that you have an S-400 in close proximity and an S-400 likely to have Russians connected to it," Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, the head of US European Command, told a small group of reporters at the Pentagon Tuesday.

It is not just the fighter deal at stake here. With Russian technicians working close with the military defense of Turkey, all systems can be observed on how they react to the Russian missile system on an active and on going basis. To be honest, if this goes thru I think it is Turkey's desire to leave NATO and not the USA's desire to remove Turkey fro NATO.

And it is not as if Turkey has been a solid supporter of western military operations in the region, though I do not know much about the current cooperation between Israel and Turkey.

[PointOfViewGun]

This is a story that started right that turned ugly. Turkey's initial bid was to buy a defense system that would also transfer technology. The bidders were USA, Russia and China. The bid have been active since 1990s, however, the Syrian civil war expedited the process. Initially, Turkey was going to buy the Chinese FD-2000 but the company that produces the system was in the black list by USA and with the objections from NATO that agreement was dropped. Patriot systems were eliminated from the bid as the price tag was too high and no technology transfer was allowed. Now, the extent of technology transfer with S-400 is a little bit vague. Turkey suggests that the system will not integrated into the NATO system and that they will be used using a Turkish software. They also suggest a technical team to verify that the operation of the defense system will not interfere with the F-35s.

S-300 version is already deployed in Crete, Greece, another NATO country. Bulgaria has some as well. Some non-NATO allies that are scheduled to use the S-400s include Saudi Arabia which is in talks with USA to buy F-35s. Somehow its only Turkey that is a concern...

[Daruwind]

Problem is more likely in Erdogan´s behavior as of lately. He was on multiple occasions acting against USA in Syria etc. and he is not far from using strong words or even threats.

Turkey under him is just not completelly reliable ally. That´s all probably.

Like what assurances does USA have that one day after some heated discussion Erdogan will not allow russians to have close look at F-35?

[alhoon]

S-300 version is already deployed in Crete, Greece, another NATO country.

Yes, but we are the good guys.
Not scary Muslims next to Russia with Imperialistic imagery and a recent inclination to oppose NATO interests in the Middle East.


Turkey will of course not be kicked out of NATO for this. USA is just whining a bit because they are afraid Russians will get a bigger share of Turkish weapons-deal budget. They also have to wave the flag for their own internal consumption* and to signal other countries to not buy Russian when American is ... well, not better but they should still get American.

*Talking about bad Russia while promoting USA's weapon manufacturing company is easy points for everyone, democrat or republican.

[Tureuki]

@Daruwind

Are you serious? Do you also blame the bullied in high schools for standing up againts their bullies? I have no love for any detail of Erdogan's thinking and policies, but this particular case is solely a reaction, it's US' own doing. If they actually acted like allies instead of acting like a man walking his leashed dog Erdogan would have never considered another option.

First it was Brits, now the US, the rest of the world had enough of this tyranny, but the worldwide corruption and US pressure prevents them from uniting and getting rid of this yoke.

[Daruwind]

@Tureuki

I´m not judging who is right and who is not, who is good guy and who is bully, who was first to fire shot and who is just defending... We would have very long discussion almost up to biblical times due to activities in Middle-east alone. :-)

Yes, you are right USA and Trump especially are behaving like Elephant in room however Turkey wants to get F-35 which is very expensive piece of hi-tech. Yes this is power play between big players like USA, Russia and many others bigger or smallers...Iran,Saudi,Izrael..yes there are many reasons,problems and question from purely economical to geo-political, religious ones....but all this is jsut context in which right now Turkey is not the best boy in class. Erdogan has problems with EU, USA, NATO and this rejection of getting F-35 is just another step. It is not signal just to erdogal but even to others around the world.

It is mature gesture, is it right or not? That is up to debate....

We all know the Izrael is already using F-35 over Syria and there are many russian technicians and piece of hardware. So Russia already has some info and experience with F-35 as Izrael and USA have about Russian POV.

[PointOfViewGun]

Problem is more likely in Erdogan´s behavior as of lately. He was on multiple occasions acting against USA in Syria etc. and he is not far from using strong words or even threats.
Turkey under him is just not completelly reliable ally. That´s all probably.
Like what assurances does USA have that one day after some heated discussion Erdogan will not allow russians to have close look at F-35?

USA is in no position to ponder about Turkey's value as an ally. Especially when they've been harboring Gülen for decades and helping YPG get weapons and training. Long before Syria USA have been acting against Turkey. What assurances does USA have against any country that it considers selling F-35s to?

[Daruwind]

What assurances does USA have against any country that it considers selling F-35s to?

We do not know. But looks like USA lost confidence in Turkey...

Or it is yet another step in longer history. If you consider just YPG and Gulen, yes, USA are meddling in Turkey´s internal affair. If you consider Turkey meddling in Syria in Kurd´s question which is ing USA vision for region....action and reaction, we can be here very long time listing all possible faults in long history ;-) Anyway it is falling back to whomever has better cards in hands. And due to economy and military it is usually USA who is holding upper hands...sorry, that is hard fact about current situation.

And guys, I´m not saying it in defense of USA. Trump is big child especially in relation to complicated matters and Middle-east is complicated area. And be assure that Trump/Congress relation is also projecting into that as many other areas..

[PointOfViewGun]

We do not know. But looks like USA lost confidence in Turkey...

Or it is yet another step in longer history. If you consider just YPG and Gulen, yes, USA are meddling in Turkey´s internal affair. If you consider Turkey meddling in Syria in Kurd´s question which is ing USA vision for region....action and reaction, we can be here very long time listing all possible faults in long history ;-) Anyway it is falling back to whomever has better cards in hands. And due to economy and military it is usually USA who is holding upper hands...sorry, that is hard fact about current situation.

And guys, I´m not saying it in defense of USA. Trump is big child especially in relation to complicated matters and Middle-east is complicated area. And be assure that Trump/Congress relation is also projecting into that as many other areas..

So, you consider Turkey's clash against USA in Syria, a country on the border of Turkey, not USA, as more valuable to USA's clash with Turkey with direct effects in Turkey's own borders? Erdoğan is partly USA's own making as well. Hence, USA is in no position to even vaguely refer to Turkey as an unreliable ally.

[Daruwind]

So, you consider Turkey's clash against USA in Syria, a country on the border of Turkey, not USA, as more valuable to USA's clash with Turkey with direct effects in Turkey's own borders? Erdoğan is partly USA's own making as well. Hence, USA is in no position to even vaguely refer to Turkey as an unreliable ally.

Stop looking on things from such narrowed perspective. You are missing context. ;-) Of course for Turkey the Syria,Kurds and such are close proximity, just across borders....Now look at things from USA perspective. Bigger clash with Russia as proxy war in Syria, power struggle between Saudi/Iran in many different layers like economical, religious leading..

Is Erdogan result of USA meddling? Yup. USA meddling usually bites USA in the ass. However USA still has many ways to influence things on opposite side of world. Hence it is world superpower. ;-) If that is good or bad, well that for philosophical debate. Political/trade dealing isi usually much more cynical without emotions...

So if Trump/USA decides to act, you can talk them but that is as much as you can do about it....even if their acting is often in bad direction.

Anyway I´m not here to defend USA. I´m saying it again so stop asking me to do it via responding. ;-) I said what I wanted.

[Vanoi]

T

S-300 version is already deployed in Crete, Greece, another NATO country. Bulgaria has some as well.

Greece only got an S-300 because Turkey complained Cyprus had one and had to give it away. Bulgaria has S-300s left-over from its Cold War arsenal just like Slovakia.

None of these countries tried to buy these systems while in NATO. Greece itself wnet on to get Patriot missile systems.

Some non-NATO allies that are scheduled to use the S-400s include Saudi Arabia which is in talks with USA to buy F-35s. Somehow its only Turkey that is a concern...

Saudis are in talks. Thats it. And with the current incident that happened, Congress will deny any sales of the F-35 to the Saudis. The American government is more than just the Trump Administration.]


If the Turks want the S-400s so bad, let them have them. The US will keep the F-35s. Sounds like a good deal to me.

[PointOfViewGun]

Stop looking on things from such narrowed perspective. You are missing context. ;-) Of course for Turkey the Syria,Kurds and such are close proximity, just across borders....Now look at things from USA perspective. Bigger clash with Russia as proxy war in Syria, power struggle between Saudi/Iran in many different layers like economical, religious leading..
Is Erdogan result of USA meddling? Yup. USA meddling usually bites USA in the ass. However USA still has many ways to influence things on opposite side of world. Hence it is world superpower. ;-) If that is good or bad, well that for philosophical debate. Political/trade dealing isi usually much more cynical without emotions...
So if Trump/USA decides to act, you can talk them but that is as much as you can do about it....even if their acting is often in bad direction.
Anyway I´m not here to defend USA. I´m saying it again so stop asking me to do it via responding. ;-) I said what I wanted.

You seem to be confusing your own narrow position, which is solely focused on USA, with my position that puts things in context...

Greece only got an S-300 because Turkey complained Cyprus had one and had to give it away. Bulgaria has S-300s left-over from its Cold War arsenal just like Slovakia.
None of these countries tried to buy these systems while in NATO. Greece itself wnet on to get Patriot missile systems.

How those states acquired S-300 systems doesn't really matter. Were they forced to simply get rid of those systems? Not that we can see. There is no evidence of the fuss made over Turkey for those states.

Saudis are in talks. Thats it. And with the current incident that happened, Congress will deny any sales of the F-35 to the Saudis. The American government is more than just the Trump Administration.
If the Turks want the S-400s so bad, let them have them. The US will keep the F-35s. Sounds like a good deal to me.

What do you depend your claim that the Congress will deny any sale of F-35 to the Saudis? We haven't seen any fuss over their talks to buy F-35s.
The good that would come out of this would be Turks not getting the F-35s as the plane is one problematic engineering feat. I wouldn't want an unreliable and expensive fighter in service in my air force.

[Odenat]

Turkey needs an air defence system and USA refuse to sell Patriots. What will we do, not buy anything and open our country to an air attack? Of course we'll try to find other choices. Even now, USA says Turkey must not buy S-400s and still, they say they can not guarantee that they will sell Patriots. Can you believe that?

As PointofViewGun already mentioned, Greece have S300's installed but strangely, that is not a problem with NATO's security. And if i remember right, F-35's are a joint project with 12 countries involvement. How can USA decide to kick Turkey out without the support of the other countries? And Turkey is producing very important parts of these planes.

USA's attitude once again shows how untrustable this country is. And Turkey needs to increase R&D of defence technology. We are currently producing many things including high-tech drones, tanks, ships and working for our warplanes. We need to do more, we need to find more customers for our defence equipment and use every method used by the West to secure new contracts.

Turkey defence industry exports hit 2 billion dollars at 2018 but there is still room for much improvement.

By the way, if we must choose between F-35s and S-400s, we'll get S-400s because having warplanes without an air-defence system have no meaning at all. Incoming enemy airplanes will catch your warplanes on the ground and destroy them. That is exactly what happened to Egyptian air force during Israel attack at 7 days war.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/tur...in-2018-138106

[Daruwind]

You seem to be confusing your own narrow position, which is solely focused on USA, with my position that puts things in context...

Come on, your best defense is to revert argument and throw it back at me? That´s cheap and not true simply...

The good that would come out of this would be Turks not getting the F-35s as the plane is one problematic engineering feat. I wouldn't want an unreliable and expensive fighter in service in my air force.

Well then perhaps buy SU-57. They might be build upon older plane but they are superb to any 6th generation plane already...and wait after russia will finish new engines and other stuff. Hell yeah!

[tgoodenow]

Trump will just take a sledgehammer to the Turkish currency if Erdogan doesn’t listen to the shot callers.

[PointOfViewGun]

Come on, your best defense is to revert argument and throw it back at me? That´s cheap and not true simply...

What could I say given that what I said was true?

Well then perhaps buy SU-57. They might be build upon older plane but they are superb to any 6th generation plane already...and wait after russia will finish new engines and other stuff. Hell yeah!

Well, yes, Russians are very good at it too but I wouldn't want them to go that path right away either.

[Vanoi]

How those states acquired S-300 systems doesn't really matter. Were they forced to simply get rid of those systems? Not that we can see. There is no evidence of the fuss made over Turkey for those states.

Its very relevant. They are inherited arsenals. Greece again only got an S-300 because of Turkey itself. And they aren't actively seeking more S-300s, nor looking to upgrade it and continue to use it. They use Patriots now.

Greece also isn't unlike Turkey trying to buy F-35s with sensitive military technology. A major difference between these two situations.

What do you depend your claim that the Congress will deny any sale of F-35 to the Saudis? We haven't seen any fuss over their talks to buy F-35s.

US Congress just voted to end support to the Saudi War in Yemen. The massive backlash over the recent incident with the murdered journalist alone guarantees the US Congress won't sell f-35s to the Saudis. I haven't seen one indication the US is planning on selling the Saudis anything.

The good that would come out of this would be Turks not getting the F-35s as the plane is one problematic engineering feat. I wouldn't want an unreliable and expensive fighter in service in my air force.

Go ask israel. They love it. Singapore is now looking to get some. Its Turkey who spent how much money to help develop it? Its solely and only their loss. The F-35 isn't that problematic. US aircraft from the F-15 to the F-22 have had problems when first introduced but were later fixed.

The F-35 has is reliable enough for Israel to use it in Syria and the US to use it in Afghanistan. There is not one single 5th generation aircraft right now that cna compare.

Su-57? Its complete . Not very stealthy and full of problems. India doesn't even want the plane anymore and they were supposed to be a big customer for the Su-57.

You can buy China's J-20. But its only good for shooting down oil tankers and AWACS. Uses technology form the obsolete F-117 Nighthawk.

Turkey does not have much choice.