Russian-Ukrainian naval incident

[The spartan]

Well that makes justifying annexation easy:

"Most of the population aren't your people"
"Wrong numbers"

[Love Mountain]

Well that makes justifying annexation easy:

"Most of the population aren't your people"
"Wrong numbers"

The cognitive dissonance is unreal. Well you know how it goes. Step 1 of selling is buying into it yourself. The funny thing is, Putin himself knows these aren't legitimate reasons for annexation, occupation, or otherwise. I'd wager most Russians are aware that this is simply done for strategic and political reasons. Amazing how so many people outside of Russia can't see the simple reality. This isn't about rights or legitimacy, this is about giving all about people to achieve your political aims.

[Heathen Hammer]

Well that makes justifying annexation easy:

"Most of the population aren't your people"
"Wrong numbers"

"Claims made by the side I support are infallible, if you disagree with me then you are biased". Excellent point, bro.

[The spartan]

I wasn't even close to saying that, I was just pointing out the dangerous flaw in your "there is no objectivity" ideology. I didn't even mention sides or infallibility.

[Heathen Hammer]

That's not my ideology and I have no idea where you got that from. Maybe you should stick to addressing what is said in actual posts instead of implying that someone has "dangerous ideology" by just pointing out the faultiness in logic of the side you support.

[The spartan]

That's not my ideology and I have no idea where you got that from. Maybe you should stick to addressing what is said in actual posts instead of implying that someone has "dangerous ideology" by just pointing out the faultiness in logic of the side you support.

Estimations may vary depending on source, not to mention that you can identify as pro-Russian Ukrainian or Malorussian.

It sure is your ideology. You deny any and all authoritative sources if they don't give you your desired result; writing them off as if part of a conspiracy (that damn Establishment Media™). Therefor, if a country (Russia) were so inclined to annex a place, they can claim to be doing so for their Ethnic interests and, when someone points out Russian ethnicity isn't the majority in that place, say those dissenting stats are just "According to the US and Ukrainian apologists" and annex anyway. There is, after all, no "trustworthy" source, right? So just do whatever you want and claim it is ok.

And Russia has a lot of practice annexing.

[Heathen Hammer]

It sure is your ideology. You deny any and all authoritative sources if they don't give you your desired result; writing them off as if part of a conspiracy (that damn Establishment Media™). Therefor, if a country (Russia) were so inclined to annex a place, they can claim to be doing so for their Ethnic interests and, when someone points out Russian ethnicity isn't the majority in that place, say those dissenting stats are just "According to the US and Ukrainian apologists" and annex anyway. There is, after all, no "trustworthy" source, right? So just do whatever you want and claim it is ok.

And Russia has a lot of practice annexing.

No, clearly I've said that estimations may vary depending on source. Because they do. For both sides, which I was clear about and you totally ignored to make up your wacky argument. On this note I don't feel like replying to you any further, since you clearly refuse to address what I'm saying.

[Derpy Hooves]

Russia making clear its hostilities towards Ukraine

Hundreds of Russian tanks spotted near the border
https://defence-blog.com/army/satell...h-ukraine.html

Video shows tanks being transported across the Kerch Strait Bridge to Crimea

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/sta...36038478934017

[Heathen Hammer]

It isn't a bad thing. The conflict will de-escalate once remaining Ukrainian troops are removed from Donbass.

[Derpy Hooves]

It’ll deescalate when Russian troops are pulled from the area and Putin forces his puppets to the negotiation table

[Heathen Hammer]

It’ll deescalate when Russian troops are pulled from the area and Putin forces his puppets to the negotiation table

Which area? Crimea is de-facto Russian territory and troops in Donbass are mostly volunteers and locals, although there are probably Russian advisors doing training or maybe some spec ops stuff. Also they tried to negotiate with Kiev several times, all to no avail.
I'm sure they could compromise, if Poroshenko pulls his troops out of Donbass, Putin could throw in a trade deal or two, which would help Ukraine's stagnating economy.

[Love Mountain]

Russia making clear its hostilities towards Ukraine

Hundreds of Russian tanks spotted near the border
https://defence-blog.com/army/satell...h-ukraine.html

Video shows tanks being transported across the Kerch Strait Bridge to Crimea

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/sta...36038478934017

What you're missing is that Russia has created new military divisions and expanded existing brigades near Ukraine all the way back in 2014. Considering the political posture and the fact that most Russian military units are concentrated in the Western and Southern military districts, this isn't particularly "alarming". Nor is it indicative of an invasion. Those forces have to be there regardless, and nobody can say whether they are there for an invasion or as a reactive force. However, considering that Russia's "reaction" is to invade the enemy, it's most likely they are there for contingency, not because there's a "schedule" of invading Ukraine.

The latest State Armaments Program 2018-2027 has focused heavily on Ground Forces, whereas the previous one was overly generous to the Air Force and Navy. The Navy was actually unable to spend all of their money on time. Considering Russian corruption (even though it's been substantially reduced), that's an impressive feat. The article you linked shows that this armor base is near Yelnya, Russia. Yelnya was once the home of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division, and will be the home of a new Motorized Rifle Division (which will retake the 144th legacy), as part of the 1st Tank Guards Army. The plans were announced in July, 2015. The work on the actual base was finished in Summer, 2017, at which point the 144th was severely undermanned with only 6,000 men for 6 Regiments. Normally 6 Regiments would be 10,000+ men. it looks like they are starting to receive more armor from Moscow.

This is in addition to two other Divisions being formed near Ukraine's border, 1st Armored Brigade is being expanded to the 10th Armor Division in Boguchar. As well as 150th Division near Novocherkassk. In addition to the Divisions, two Brigades are also being moved from Central MD to the front line in Ukraine. An airbase has recently been finishing or finished construction if I remember correctly. So if you wanted to ring alarm bells, that should've been 4 years ago. On the other hand, these pictures merely look like transporting the last elements of the S-400 battalion they transferred to Crimea (beefing it up from 3 to 4). In addition to finishing up building the units they already transferred back in 2016. I don't really see anything alarming here, this is just "mainstream media" not being experts in this subject matter. Military analysts have followed these developments for a while, and yes, some have been ringing the alarm bells about a Russian invasion of Ukraine considering all of the heavy forces being created near their borders.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

I'm really sure, Russia invasion spearhead wouldn't consist of T 62 and T 64 tanks...

[Love Mountain]

Russian invasion could take many forms. There are a lot of surplus tanks. The Ukrainian Army mainly uses T-62s, and T-64s. One could make the case that Russia is bringing in older modernized tanks to give themselves more deniability as they operate in Eastern Ukraine. Otherwise these may just be simply "interim" tanks. Tanks that the newly formed divisions will train on until newer tanks are available. It's better to have older, modernized, tanks than no tanks at all.

[The spartan]

No, clearly I've said that estimations may vary depending on source. Because they do. For both sides, which I was clear about and you totally ignored to make up your wacky argument. On this note I don't feel like replying to you any further, since you clearly refuse to address what I'm saying.

Of course estimations vary, but that one probably doesn't vary as much as you seem to be implying, at least enough to make annexation seem plausible. You play your game far too often for it to go unnoticed; casting doubt against the legitimacy of information if it doesn't suit your preconceptions (i.e. Hillary is still out there killing), and then strawman your opponents with such gems:

"Claims made by the side I support are infallible, if you disagree with me then you are biased". Excellent point, bro.

Which I have never said or implied anything of the like on these forums. And if you don't want to respond, more power to you. It isn't like we have actual discussions anyways, you just want to play political tetherball, not come to a consensus. It a lot of ways, it is very reminiscent of actual negotions with Russia:
"Russia, we know, all of us know you have soldiers stationed on Ukrainian soil in the Donbass region."
"No we don't. Who tells you this, western propaganda?"
"No, look, we have all seen the evidence, we know that you know you have soldiers there. We need to handle this international issue, we need a solution."
"Solution to what? Western propaganda? You should try RT"

And then this very serious issue never gets addressed because Russia had no actual interest in addressing the issue and are willing to boldface lie about it.

[Heathen Hammer]

I'm really sure, Russia invasion spearhead wouldn't consist of T 62 and T 64 tanks...

Depends on the situation. If Poroshenko decides to start another offensive (which he might do as a desperate gamble due to his low popularity), Russians might respond. It will most likely be similar to 2008 war, when Russian helped South Ossetians and Abkhazians fight off a Georgian invasion. For the past 4 years Russians were throwing Poroshenko carrots, but to no avail. Might be the time to use the stick.

[babay11]

Russia will never allow Ukraine to become, like, once Cuba ... Who wants to have a clan sideways military bases of the alleged enemy?

[Love Mountain]

Because the alleged enemy doesn't have to be an enemy. Especially when Ukraine wanted to become part of Europe, not America's 52nd state.

[95thrifleman]

Russian invasion could take many forms. There are a lot of surplus tanks. The Ukrainian Army mainly uses T-62s, and T-64s. One could make the case that Russia is bringing in older modernized tanks to give themselves more deniability as they operate in Eastern Ukraine. Otherwise these may just be simply "interim" tanks. Tanks that the newly formed divisions will train on until newer tanks are available. It's better to have older, modernized, tanks than no tanks at all.

That case could be made, provided you wan't to abandon reality and facts.

The Russians got rid of the T62's and T64's in Russian service, either sold off or used as targets on firing ranges or scrapped. This is becase they made so many T72's which they have been supplying to the rebels (while claiming they are Ukrainian).

Ukrainie however is the only place in the world (kharkiv) that still produces and modernises T62's and T64's.

[Love Mountain]

That case could be made, provided you wan't to abandon reality and facts.

The Russians got rid of the T62's and T64's in Russian service, either sold off or used as targets on firing ranges or scrapped. This is becase they made so many T72's which they have been supplying to the rebels (while claiming they are Ukrainian).

Ukrainie however is the only place in the world (kharkiv) that still produces and modernises T62's and T64's.

Russia supplies mostly older, T-62 and T-64s, to Eastern Ukrainian rebels. Russia still has hundreds in their inventory. Plus, modernizing all of these tanks isn't actually that hard. Russia already has a lot of diesel engines that they themselves manufacture, and the T-64 isn't exactly a heavy tank. Plus, there's hundreds if not thousands of T-64s and T-62s in their inventory, Russia probably doesn't even know how many exactly they have. To demonstrate the issue, one of Russia's newer tank modernizations that are due to enter service in 2019-2020, is the T-80BVM. Now the T-80 uses Gas Turbine engines which were produced by Ukraine. What happened was, someone in Russia found a storage unit with a thousand of these spare engines, and that's why Russia decided to modernize the T-80. So... yeah, there's a ton of excess inventory that Russia can use. Especially in a limited conflict like Ukraine.

More than that, despite the fact that the upgraded T-72 variants will be the primary Russian tank for the next decade or so... the demand for T-72s and their upgraded variants is actually really high. Russia sold a lot of these tanks. I'm actually very sure that they don't have enough production capacity to rearm all of their divisions fast, which means they might have to send older tanks to their units for training. Russia's arms industry is improving every year, they are quickly retooling all of their factories, so I wouldn't be surprised to see more and more transitions towards more advanced equipment. Recently the air-defense component for Gorshkov frigates was finished, in another 5 years a turbine will be designed for them as well. I think Adar was pretty spot-on with his analysis a couple years ago when he predicted that Russia is quickly rearming and becoming a very dangerous force.