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Thread: IPCC special report - Global Warming of 1.5 C

  1. #41
    Daruwind's Avatar Senator
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    Default Re: IPCC special report - Global Warming of 1.5 C

    Point is, in history of Earth there were periods with higher temperatures and periods with lower temperatures. We know climate will change one one or another, question is how fast and how much people are affecting it.

    If you want, go and read about Ice Ages, about positive,negative feedbacks.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age
    It is not that temperatures drop supernaturally to low and you have ice Age, nope. It is slow (in human term) process where one step leads to another. Like if you have a lot snow, it will reflect more sun instead of absorbing and thus lower tempretures again and again....

    I have just two questions, do you really think think that the ammount of gases and other crap humanity produce is not affecting Earth at all? And do you think the earth ecosystem especially concerning humans (food etc.) wont be affected? The problem for humanity is not necesarry the climate but the social problems it will cause like migration, wars for resources..

    I would add for example Late Bronze Age Collapse, just look for possible reasons. The actual problem was probably combination of factors which resulted in nice Dark Age https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Bronze_Age_collapse

  2. #42

    Default Re: IPCC special report - Global Warming of 1.5 C

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    Like if you have a lot snow, it will reflect more sun instead of absorbing and thus lower tempretures again and again....
    The developed world needs to paint their streets, parking lots, and rooftops white.

    Quote Originally Posted by Daruwind View Post
    I would add for example Late Bronze Age Collapse, just look for possible reasons. The actual problem was probably combination of factors which resulted in nice Dark Age https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Bronze_Age_collapse
    This is a good example of how complicated all the variables are.

    Greenland Ice Sheet temperatures:



    Notice they are much colder today, but rising. The climate in the Middle East during the Bronze Age Collapse was characterized by long dry spells leading to crop failures, but then during the Roman Warm Period and the centuries that followed, the climate was uncharacteristically wet. What is the Negev Desert today was all grasslands and vineyards.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  3. #43
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    Default Re: IPCC special report - Global Warming of 1.5 C

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    ...
    Notice they are much colder today, but rising. The climate in the Middle East during the Bronze Age Collapse was characterized by long dry spells leading to crop failures, but then during the Roman Warm Period and the centuries that followed, the climate was uncharacteristically wet. What is the Negev Desert today was all grasslands and vineyards.
    Yes regional variables are fascinating. I have great hopes for the monsoon belt moving south over Australia's northern mountain fringe, we have a large arid basin in the centre of our country that has in the past been watered by monsoon falls flowing south.

    Hopefully this will offset some areas on the southern fringe that will see their rain bands slip south into the ocean (eg the productive and beautiful SW regions of Western Australia).

    Of course it will take many decades to develop any new breadbaskets (either in the Victoria Desert or Siberia) so rapid climate change will definitely lead to the deaths of billions if it happens quickly. I get the sense that Africa is in real trouble as things already stand, its more a question of how bad things get elsewhere. A famine in Syria and some political problems in Africa has seen a tide of refugees in Europe which has shaken a lot of people, its literally a drop in the ocean that is coming.

    I think the difference between the current climate wobble and past ones is the amount of carbon contributing to the increase in temperatures. That's a larger than normal factor variable in an already highly complex system. I mean we are adding a whole new layer of persistent heat retaining atmospheric carbon, so changes are likely to be skewed outside any past patterns driven by orbital eccentricity and other factors, so the entire pattern shifts in an upward direction.

    The only similar event I know of is the Permian extinction where volcanic carbon dioxide shot temperatures up way past normal ranges. Human activity is nowhere near those levels and I think we'd choke to death before we got there (it was one of the worst mass extinction events and I doubt humanity has the power to generate such events), but its an example of how the addition of extra carbon is a very unsettling element in our normal climate oscillation.

    Its looking more and more like rational decision making for the good of the majority has lost out to selfish greed on this issue: I guess we see this in other extreme climate events eg the medieval warming peak coincides with the enserfment of much of Western Europe's peasantry,the Late Bronze collapse entailed a catastrophic population collapse etc. I guess the Roman example is encouraging, sometimes climate change can be positive for human populations, but I suspect its a one-off in a otherwise pretty harsh pattern.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  4. #44

    Default Re: IPCC special report - Global Warming of 1.5 C

    Seriously...what do we have to lose by cutting back on emissions?
    You'd be surprised. You should ask the Ontarians who can't afford to pay heat and light during the winter about irresponsible attempts to go green too fast. Those skyrocketing bills were a direct result of two policies of the Ontario Liberals: carbon tax and the closing down of local coal factories:

    https://globalnews.ca/news/2937977/w...g-hydro-bills/

    The Liberals have maintained hydro rates increased as the province shut down its coal-burning power plants and invested in infrastructure to make the electricity system more reliable than it was a decade ago
    By the way, this hot-button issue is almost certainly one of the main reasons why Wynne's Liberals received, what was it? 12% of the vote or something when Doug Ford won the recent provincial election? A populace that can't pay for it's power bills just isn't going to vote for you when your political policies are one of the direct causes of their woes... At any rate, attempts to go green should be responsibly implemented, such that problems like the Ontario heating crisis should never happen. So that, my friend, is what we have to lose by cutting back on emissions, assuming it's done irresponsibly like in the case of Ontario.

    On a separate note, let's take a step back from the "greenhouse gases increasing global temperature" and talk about some issues which climate change deniers can't really refute IMO, and which are still more reasons why we should try to lower our emissions. Those would be: acid rain, poor air quality and ocean acidity levels. Does anyone dispute these points or the fact that CO2 emissions are suggested to be a direct cause of these problems? As early as 1852 it was determined that there was evidence that atmospheric pollution helped to cause acid rain:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acid_rain

    Obviously, emissions are noxious to breathe as well(I really shouldn't have to cite anything to convince anyone of that...). Please see the New Dehli example for what happens when emissions reach intolerable levels(hope you like wearing a gas mask):

    https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/asia/...ion/index.html

    Finally, ocean acidification, while also naturally occurring to a degree, is generally thought in scientific circles to have been sped on by increased CO2 emissions:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification

    Particularly, this idea is theoretically supported by the following chemical equation:

    Dissolving CO2 in seawater increases the hydrogen ion (H+) concentration in the ocean, and thus decreases ocean pH, as follows:[32]

    CO2 (aq) + H2O ⇌ H2CO3 ⇌ HCO3 + H+ ⇌ CO32− + 2 H+.
    https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/fu....010908.163834

    Abstract quote:

    Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily from human fossil fuel combustion, reduces ocean pH and causes wholesale shifts in seawater carbonate chemistry. The process of ocean acidification is well documented in field data, and the rate will accelerate over this century unless future CO2 emissions are curbed dramatically. Acidification alters seawater chemical speciation and biogeochemical cycles of many elements and compounds. One well-known effect is the lowering of calcium carbonate saturation states, which impacts shell-forming marine organisms from plankton to benthic molluscs, echinoderms, and corals. Many calcifying species exhibit reduced calcification and growth rates in laboratory experiments under high-CO2 conditions...
    So, even if you are suggesting that climate change isn't athropogenic in nature(and whether we can actually halt it's progress) there are still many reasons to reduce our overall emissions, such as that of reducing acid rain(assuming you like limestone monuments, freshwater fish and etc.) and that invaluable and increasingly rare commodity, which our ancestors took for granted, clean air.

  5. #45

    Default Re: IPCC special report - Global Warming of 1.5 C

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    The developed world needs to paint their streets, parking lots, and rooftops white.

    This is a good example of how complicated all the variables are.

    Greenland Ice Sheet temperatures:



    Notice they are much colder today, but rising. The climate in the Middle East during the Bronze Age Collapse was characterized by long dry spells leading to crop failures, but then during the Roman Warm Period and the centuries that followed, the climate was uncharacteristically wet. What is the Negev Desert today was all grasslands and vineyards.
    A small remark, the data from this ice core doesn't go earlier than 1855. It is said on the webpage that the first data is 95 years before present which is by convention 1950.
    ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/pal..._alley2000.txt

    You can't see the actual warming.

  6. #46

    Default Re: IPCC special report - Global Warming of 1.5 C

    Quote Originally Posted by Genava View Post
    A small remark, the data from this ice core doesn't go earlier than 1855. It is said on the webpage that the first data is 95 years before present which is by convention 1950.
    ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/pal..._alley2000.txt

    You can't see the actual warming.
    I'm not sure I follow what you're saying. According to the reference you linked, same as cited in the study I posted:

    Well-preserved annual layers can be counted confidently, with only 1% errors for the age of the end of the Younger Dryas 11,500 years before present. Ice-flow corrections allow reconstruction of snow accumulation rates over tens of thousands of years with little additional uncertainty.
    They list temperature estimates going back to 49,981 years before present.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  7. #47

    Default Re: IPCC special report - Global Warming of 1.5 C

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    I'm not sure I follow what you're saying. According to the reference you linked, same as cited in the study I posted:

    They list temperature estimates going back to 49,981 years before present.
    I'm saying the ice core data from the GISP2 project has this range: 1855 AD - 48031 BC. You can't see the actual warming trend from the human induced climate change. Today temperature at this point seems to be higher than during the bronze age collapsus.

    The graphic you posted quote exactly this GISP2 project. The graph is only about a small part of the data because it is the subject.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Before_Present
    https://www.skepticalscience.com/10000-years-warmer.htm
    Last edited by Genava; October 11, 2018 at 03:37 AM.

  8. #48

    Default Re: IPCC special report - Global Warming of 1.5 C

    Quote Originally Posted by Genava View Post
    I'm saying the ice core data from the GISP2 project has this range: 1855 AD - 48031 BC. You can't see the actual warming trend from the human induced climate change. Today temperature at this point are higher than during the bronze age collapsus.
    Ah, okay. I didn't catch that. I actually know next to nothing about the science surrounding the current debate outside of when it happens to overlap with paleoclimatology.
    Last edited by sumskilz; October 11, 2018 at 04:02 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  9. #49
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    Default Re: IPCC special report - Global Warming of 1.5 C

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    Ah, okay. I didn't catch that. I actually know next to nothing about the science surrounding the current debate outside of when it happens to overlap with paleoclimatology.
    ...which would still make you about the most qualified person to comment ITT.

    The academics I've spoken to tell me the simple version is we're digging up sequestered carbon, so the usual spike in CO2 we see in recent interglacial (and other periods) is steeper. Usually to get this amount of underground carbon into the air takes massive volcanic activity. The exact historic levels of non-sequestered (total above ground, not just atmospheric) carbon are unclear, but the most popular theory is that Permian spike aside, the levels were highest during first atmosphere formation and have gradually subsided.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  10. #50
    AqD's Avatar (~‾▿‾)~
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    Default Re: IPCC special report - Global Warming of 1.5 C

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDarkKnight View Post
    I have yet to see anyone actually say we need to deindustrialize EVERYTHING. Talk about a doomsday scenario.

    And even if that WERE the case (which it is not), would it not worth it for the survival of our species? Because once the effects of it are beyond an actual breaking point pointing fingers will not do anything to help, it will already be too late.

    Stop thinking selfishly about short term sacrifices. No amount of money or "liberty" is worth our extinction. Maybe you don't care about what happens to your descendants but I kind of do.
    Eh, there won't be an extinction even if the Antarctica becomes the only habitable area to people of present technological level. It'll be huge enough for our top scientists and best professionals of all fields. In short our civilization will remain intact, the average IQs of humans will explode and humans as a species will actually grow exponentially.

    And I'm pretty sure the world can't be worse without me or my descendants, or like 99% of people. So who's the selfish one?

  11. #51

    Default Re: IPCC special report - Global Warming of 1.5 C

    Quote Originally Posted by AqD View Post
    Eh, there won't be an extinction even if the Antarctica becomes the only habitable area to people of present technological level. It'll be huge enough for our top scientists and best professionals of all fields. In short our civilization will remain intact, the average IQs of humans will explode and humans as a species will actually grow exponentially.

    And I'm pretty sure the world can't be worse without me or my descendants, or like 99% of people. So who's the selfish one?
    The death of billions and the extinction of millions of species seem to be something normal for you.

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