2018 Turkish Elections

[pchalk]

Exactly. The danger with Erdogan is that Turkey may see itself isolated in the long term. What may help slow that inevitability, however, is that from the NATO side I can see a fear that Turkey will eventually align itself with Russia.

Not exactly. For starters, we'd have much less international embarrassments. Winning international public opinion would be much less hard. It was Erdoğan that made Turkey weaker than what it could be, so that will be a good addition too, since Erdoğan catered to a lot of negative foreign interests. If Turkey is strong today, it's not because of Erdoğan, it's despite him. A stone in his place would do a better job...

Gesendet von meinem A140 mit Tapatalk

[tgoodenow]

I see that the Turkish Lira has been declining lately. Do you think this will have an impact on the elections or will the effects not be felt yet?

[dogukan]

I just want opposition to win for the chaos and AKP consolidation reversal that will ensue.
But the opposition is made up of Islamists, racist nationalists and Kemalists of nationalists and social democrat stock.

There is nothing attractive in the opposition, but such a civil chaos is an opportunity for Turkey to potentially transform for the better. But I doubt it will be a stable period and there'll be a lot of uncertainty if the opposition wins.
I am more interested in the battle for the Turkish "deep state", which is really what matters around here. Both parties have their hands in there. Their inner conflict can be an opportunity to get rid of that evil polity.

I see that the Turkish Lira has been declining lately. Do you think this will have an impact on the elections or will the effects not be felt yet?

Its all over the elections. The reason Erdogan pushed elections to earlier was to handle the economy before things get worse. The extreme uncertainty in Turkey had been making the country open to speculative attacks. Combined with Erdoganomics and his reliance on conservative SME based class which functions on domestic debts, he cannot increase the interests rates, which is what the economy needs. So he talks like the so called "independent central bank" does it behind his back and because we have a ridiculously illiterate public, he manages to sell that what is going on is a product of global banker conspiracies and soros kind of stuff. Which the alt-right bunch in EU loves nowadays.

The idea was to win the elections right away and bring interests back up to stabilize Turkish lira....but it created even more uncertainty now and more dollar and euro is being released to the economy by decreasing capital limits of the banks and by injections from the CB. So it had the opposite effect by causing even more damage by creating more high return high risk environment for speculative behaviour.
At this rate, they ll bring capital controls or something but that would have HUGE ramifications.

Combined with the Current Account deficit Turkey is running, despite extreme amount devaluation, things are looking very grim. Turkey is finally paying the years of forced clientalism-network based unproductive investments and brain drains the country has experienced.
The global trade regionalization trend and protectionism increase when we are ruining our relations with EU, our most valuable partner is also there.

Such rapid rate of devaluation and not raising the interests are driving inflation very high up making savings accounts meaningless in an already unproductive economy.

If Erdogan goes, it ll be because of economy and uncertainty his cling to power is creating.
That being said, opposition would be taking a very volatile economy and the potential ensuing conflict for de-AKP'ing the state would hurt those clientalist relations that made the economy function and create even more uncertainty.
As you can see, there is a huge problem either way for Turkey as our living standards rapidly decline and valuable people run away from Turkey.

[Copperknickers II]

If Erdogan goes, it ll be because of economy and uncertainty his cling to power is creating.
That being said, opposition would be taking a very volatile economy and the potential ensuing conflict for de-AKP'ing the state would hurt those clientalist relations that made the economy function and create even more uncertainty.
As you can see, there is a huge problem either way for Turkey as our living standards rapidly decline and valuable people run away from Turkey.

Are people in Turkey actually worried about this? What are the conversations people are having? I was planning on coming to Turkey in the near future, should I cancel?

[dogukan]

Are people in Turkey actually worried about this? What are the conversations people are having? I was planning on coming to Turkey in the near future, should I cancel?

Political polarization is extremely deep in Turkey, so hate for the other party is way beyond concerns about economy.
You see, Turkish society does not exactly function on "rationalist models" you can apply to western democracies because interests are defined a lot more by norms and identities than materialist variables in Turkey. That is of course my opinion. There are factions in Turkey that are more concerned about economic concerns, certainly not me as my money is in sterlings lol and the student debt I ll be paying will be in a devalued lira when I make money abroad within the next decade
I am such a traitor hahgasdfasdf

Obviously, Turkey is an integrated economy and such volatility really screws import-inputs needed for economy to function but on the other hand it boosts exporters. So it depends on if you have a import-based firm or an export-oriented firm, or it depends on the mix of import-exports you use for your business.
As we have a deficit and have a huge import-demand overall in our economic structure, it is having a huge impact on prices, so the effect of exchange rate is huge on inflation right now(used to be more due to over-heating from credit-driven consumption)


Long story short, majority of people are so concerned about winning the election that they wont care if the country is left burning the next days. Hate defines the politics in Turkey.

I would advise to be careful around elections to see if there is a smooth transition. There might be some civil tension that can be visible on the streets. I mean chances of you getting hurt would be very low but it d be better to wait for June to end.

You are from Scotland, so after that, enjoy a ridiculously cheap Turkey with the queen on your papels There ll be a rush of Brits this year anyways. Our currency devalued ridiculously in such a short time against it.
I came to uk when the rate was 4-1, now it is 6-1. I am seriously glad I bought my sterlings early on.

[Genghis Skahn]

Well, I certainly hope Erdogan loses because he's a filthy Islamo-Fascist whose bodyguards violently beat any foreign citizens who protest against him while he visits foreign countries. It's fairly disgusting to watch Turkey become increasingly less secular thanks to authoritarian mongrels like Erdogan.

Off topic, hopefully evolution will begin to be taught in secondary school again if he loses too:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-official-says

Evolution will no longer be taught in Turkish schools, a senior education official has said, in a move likely to raise the ire of the country’s secular opposition.

Alpaslan Durmuş, who chairs the board of education, said evolution was debatable, controversial and too complicated for students.
“We believe that these subjects are beyond their [students] comprehension,” said Durmuş in a video published on the education ministry’s website.

Durmuş said a chapter on evolution was being removed from ninth grade biology course books, and the subject postponed to the undergraduate period. Another change to the curriculum may reduce the amount of time that students spend studying the legacy of secularism.

Critics of the government believe public life is being increasingly stripped of the secular traditions instilled by the nation’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.
The secular opposition has long argued that the government of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is pursuing a covert Islamist agenda contrary to the republic’s founding values. Education is a particularly contentious avenue, because of its potential in shaping future generations. Small-scale protests by parents in local schools have opposed the way religion is taught.

Controversial? Maybe. Complicated? Not really... Debatable? Well, sorry guys, but we just keep finding more and more evidence of evolution. It's one of the most well-thought out and successful theories EVER to be created. Does the concept of evolution conflict with the idea of god? Well, that really depends on who you ask. In my opinion, you can be religious and still accept that evolution is how life was created on earth--I mean, how could you prove that evolution wasn't "God's plan"? Well, you can't prove or disprove that, just like you can't prove or disprove the existence of god.

Imagine if all of Turkey's microbiologists and doctors stopped believing in evolution and applying it to their daily work lives? Well, I can promise you thousands would die and millions to billions of dollars would be lost(microbiology is a HIGHLY lucrative industry which virtually every modern nation invests in, since microbes often produce low-weight-high-value products. Strain-building is a process which microbiologists world-wide apply to improve a given microbe's ability to produce a given product, it actively uses the principles evolution to achieve this goal).

[tgoodenow]

I just want opposition to win for the chaos and AKP consolidation reversal that will ensue.
But the opposition is made up of Islamists, racist nationalists and Kemalists of nationalists and social democrat stock.

There is nothing attractive in the opposition, but such a civil chaos is an opportunity for Turkey to potentially transform for the better. But I doubt it will be a stable period and there'll be a lot of uncertainty if the opposition wins.
I am more interested in the battle for the Turkish "deep state", which is really what matters around here. Both parties have their hands in there. Their inner conflict can be an opportunity to get rid of that evil polity.





Its all over the elections. The reason Erdogan pushed elections to earlier was to handle the economy before things get worse. The extreme uncertainty in Turkey had been making the country open to speculative attacks. Combined with Erdoganomics and his reliance on conservative SME based class which functions on domestic debts, he cannot increase the interests rates, which is what the economy needs. So he talks like the so called "independent central bank" does it behind his back and because we have a ridiculously illiterate public, he manages to sell that what is going on is a product of global banker conspiracies and soros kind of stuff. Which the alt-right bunch in EU loves nowadays.

The idea was to win the elections right away and bring interests back up to stabilize Turkish lira....but it created even more uncertainty now and more dollar and euro is being released to the economy by decreasing capital limits of the banks and by injections from the CB. So it had the opposite effect by causing even more damage by creating more high return high risk environment for speculative behaviour.
At this rate, they ll bring capital controls or something but that would have HUGE ramifications.

Combined with the Current Account deficit Turkey is running, despite extreme amount devaluation, things are looking very grim. Turkey is finally paying the years of forced clientalism-network based unproductive investments and brain drains the country has experienced.
The global trade regionalization trend and protectionism increase when we are ruining our relations with EU, our most valuable partner is also there.

Such rapid rate of devaluation and not raising the interests are driving inflation very high up making savings accounts meaningless in an already unproductive economy.

If Erdogan goes, it ll be because of economy and uncertainty his cling to power is creating.
That being said, opposition would be taking a very volatile economy and the potential ensuing conflict for de-AKP'ing the state would hurt those clientalist relations that made the economy function and create even more uncertainty.
As you can see, there is a huge problem either way for Turkey as our living standards rapidly decline and valuable people run away from Turkey.

Thank you for the thorough breakdown. So I imagine that worst-case scenario for the country is that Ergodan doesn't win outright and decides to spend even more money to buy votes in the second round? From what you've stated, I would think that Ergodan winning 1st round and allowing the central banks to raise interest rates while he proclaims his hate for it may be the best thing for the country because of the economic effects and the peoples standard of living.

If AKP loses and the new coalition raises interests rates, the economy will cool down some (which is what it needs right now) and AKP will be able to blame the new coalition for these effects. Non-AKP coalition chaos scenario seems worse than the known evils of AKP but that may just be because I'm on the outside looking in.

[Tureuki]

My worst fear about the coalition is the possibility of neglection of military industry and a sudden change on Syrian policy. If they go ahead and try to pull back all soldiers or something that would be disastrous. The other 2 parties are less likely to do such things but today's CHP is tends to follow passive policies. It sucks that closest thing to my ideal is CHP, and not even they are close to my ideal.

[dogukan]

Yeah god forbid they end fascist militarism and make peace with kurds. We might be poor, suffering and causing deaths preventing democratization but at least we get a spectacle of militarist tacticool to make us feel like we matter.

Thank you for the thorough breakdown. So I imagine that worst-case scenario for the country is that Ergodan doesn't win outright and decides to spend even more money to buy votes in the second round? From what you've stated, I would think that Ergodan winning 1st round and allowing the central banks to raise interest rates while he proclaims his hate for it may be the best thing for the country because of the economic effects and the peoples standard of living.

If AKP loses and the new coalition raises interests rates, the economy will cool down some (which is what it needs right now) and AKP will be able to blame the new coalition for these effects. Non-AKP coalition chaos scenario seems worse than the known evils of AKP but that may just be because I'm on the outside looking in.

Thats an accurate take indeed. Somebody will have to pull the strings eventually and will have 5 years to sort things out. But given how polarized turkey is and the structure of the state, the system would likely go into a deadlock under the opposition which will have trouble keeping a unified position anyways.

For the evonomics, best case scenario is for erdogan to win and rule with his stable authoritarianism. But that would simply be delaying a structural adjustment turkey has to make.

The more you delay, the worse the crisis will become the harder the fall will be.

[Tureuki]

Always pissed off about how Kurds are not gifted with everything they want. How dare Turkey tries to break off from its dependency to west, how dare it tries to prevent its borders from taken over by a terrorist organization that sucked its blood for decades. We should have just live rest of our time as losers because thats what we deserve right?

[dogukan]

"Dependence on west"

[emoji4] nationalism is the cancer of this world

[Tureuki]

Many of the recent polls suggest that AKP's votes would be around %42-44(down from 49ish) and Erdo wouldnt be elected president in first turn(but possibly will get elected in second turn). Other 2 candidates are seemingly closer to each other. Its sucks that opposition couldnt find a common candidate.

In the end, Erdo will be still in his chair but parliament domination would end. Wouldnt effect him much though. President already got boosted authority and he would boost it further if he felt like parliament was restraining him.


"We had enough(of Erdo)" liked the tune of this song :p

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Deey...ature=youtu.be

[PointOfViewGun]

I believe the Germany showed its ugly face with an other election tactic. That, or their politicians are highly incompetent. They first banned Turkish election propaganda in Germany. Erdoğan was barred from having a rally there, but then, they allowed a HDP rally to take place, but again then, they barred HDP candidates from making a speech at the last minute. This way, they gave enough ammunition to Erdoğan to beat the drums on how Germany is taking a side in the Turkish elections, while likely they will use the debacle to against their own right leaning voters. Bravo!

Many of the recent polls suggest that AKP's votes would be around %42-44(down from 49ish) and Erdo wouldnt be elected president in first turn(but possibly will get elected in second turn). Other 2 candidates are seemingly closer to each other. Its sucks that opposition couldnt find a common candidate.
In the end, Erdo will be still in his chair but parliament domination would end. Wouldnt effect him much though. President already got boosted authority and he would boost it further if he felt like parliament was restraining him.
"We had enough(of Erdo)" liked the tune of this song :p
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Deey...ature=youtu.be

It's not a good idea to have a common candidate in the first round. Having multiple candidates means that each will get its own potential as well as chip away from Erdoğan. If there was only one candidate that potential is much lower. However, now, each candidate will decrease Erdoğan's votes more and more and showing him as a much weaker candidate. This will help in the second round. Most trustworthy polling agencies puts the second round at a statistical tie at the moment.

[Tureuki]

I find guesses for parliament plausible but I dont think Erdo's own vote can be less than %48-49. He might even won in first turn.

[Muizer]

Good luck to Erdogan. The more he exposes the incompetence and treachery of the European liberal elite, the more Europeans realize who the problem really is.

I kind of doubt he'll leave it to luck. I get the impression betting against Erdogan is about as sensible as it would have been to bet against Putin, for pretty much the same reasons.

[PointOfViewGun]

I find guesses for parliament plausible but I dont think Erdo's own vote can be less than %48-49. He might even won in first turn.

There is no basis for that.

[tgoodenow]

Looks like erdogans gonna do it in the first round. Currently up at 55% with 70% vote counted.
RIP lira

[gastovski]

Another year, another win, time for the party again

[hellheaven1987]

If they go ahead and try to pull back all soldiers or something that would be disastrous.

I doubt that, it is too close to Turkey and no one is crazy to take that bet. In fact I doubt CHP and AKP would have any dramatic difference between their foreign policies.

Anyway it looks like Erdogan is winning, his real concern is getting over 50%.

[tgoodenow]

I doubt that, it is too close to Turkey and no one is crazy to take that bet. In fact I doubt CHP and AKP would have any dramatic difference between their foreign policies.

Anyway it looks like Erdogan is winning, his real concern is getting over 50%.

TRT world already calling it for Erdogan