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Thread: Calexit starts gathering signatures

  1. #61

    Default Re: Calexit starts gathering signatures

    Quote Originally Posted by Basil II the B.S View Post
    The chances of a successful California secession are zero.

    Let's look at how badly the recent Catalonia experience went, California has even less chances. They got rid of weapons to begin with and guess what, if you want to secede, you might actually need them. They can't leave legally, thus civil war is their best chance and they'd lose.

    Also, let's look at what California really is:

    Dead last in quality of living among US states.
    https://www.usnews.com/news/best-sta...uality-of-life
    Just like it's at the bottom of high school education.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...nal_attainment
    4th in inequality
    http://www.businessinsider.com/incom...T#5-florida-46
    4th in outbound US states migration, meaning people are leaving.
    https://www.northamerican.com/migration-map
    The last one hints what's wrong with the country. The top 5 outbound states are Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey, California and Michigan. All Democrat bulwarks where immigration and excessive environmental legislation destroy the standard of living of the middle class, along with rampant crime, widespread homelessness, high taxation, corruption.
    The top inbound states are Idaho, the two Carolinas, Tenneesee and Arizona, so you have the counter proof that it's liberals destroying their states.

    Ultimately the best option for California would be splitting it.
    The last conservatives before moving out are indeed attempting this option, which would be legal and far less complicated than secession:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...r-billionaire/
    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics...t-12833111.php
    All of this is true. As alhoo's pointed out, Calexit is a temper tantrum of the liberal political elite.

    But one I think they should be allowed to indulge in. I seriously doubt that even the majority of the people in the movement would support it if they thought it had even a 5% chance of morphing into something serious. The example of Catalonia you brought up was grade-a example of how not to handle theses sorts of things. Most Catalonians were likely to vote against it and the percentage of voters would have been low anyways. Yes, the vote was illegal, but so would have been any result. Spain could just have let it happen, hold the result of the illegal vote as a proof of the Spanish mandate and maybe wag their finger a little bit. What they ended up doing was to remind all Catalonians why some still consider the Spanish government illegetimate.

  2. #62
    alhoon's Avatar Moderator
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    Default Re: Catalonia Independence Referendum

    California is now considered to be the 5th largest economy in the world, surpassing UK. Not that failed economy after all...

  3. #63
    Aexodus's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Catalonia Independence Referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    California is now considered to be the 5th largest economy in the world, surpassing UK. Not that failed economy after all...
    What do you expect from the home of Hollywood, and Silicon Valley.

    It also happens to have the worst living conditions in the US. Wonder why.

    Almost like the middle classes are leaving, and are replaced courtesy of non-existent border laws by another class of people.

    He that will not reason is a bigot, He that cannot reason is a fool, He that dares not reason is a slave.

  4. #64

    Default Re: Catalonia Independence Referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by alhoon View Post
    California is now considered to be the 5th largest economy in the world, surpassing UK. Not that failed economy after all...
    Only if you measure prosperity exclusively using GDP as indicator.

    At the height of colonialism and its partitioning, China alone had 40% of the world GDP. You see how much that means.

  5. #65

    Default Re: Calexit starts gathering signatures

    Having high GDP doesn't make a state self-sufficient.
    For example, Cascadia and Texas could secede and exist independently. They do possess necessary resources and infrastructure to secede from US.
    California, on the other hand, does not. At best, it would be basically a banana republic, with a small rich elite and rest of the population impoverished. After Hollywood, CV and other major corporate assets are evacuated, and welfare buget runs out, we would literally see hordes of immigrants and just poor people rioting, maybe even storming gated neighborhoods where rich virtue-signalling liberals live. California would literally collapse on itself economically, especially if its northern republican part will probably become something like Ulster in Ireland.
    By means of ever more effective methods of mind-manipulation, the democracies will change their nature; the quaint old forms -- elections, parliaments, Supreme Courts and all the rest -- will remain. The underlying substance will be a new kind of non-violent totalitarianism. All the traditional names, all the hallowed slogans will remain exactly what they were in the good old days. Democracy and freedom will be the theme of every broadcast and editorial [...]. Meanwhile the ruling oligarchy and its highly trained elite of soldiers, policemen, thought-manufacturers and mind-manipulators will quietly run the show as they see fit.
    -
    Aldous Huxley, Brave New World Revisited, 1958

  6. #66

    Default Re: Calexit starts gathering signatures

    The funny thing about the 'California' boom is that it's an unintended effect of Trump's election.
    From Nov 8 2016 to February 2018, the only strategy when it comes to US tech stocks was long, long, long. Anyone that shorted at any point was sent packing and that's because venture capitalists for some reason fell in love with Trump and poured investments into start ups.
    It's great if you are a Jeff Bezos, Jack Dorsey or less known yet ultra rich Silicon Valley company owner. If you are the average Josč, life sucks as usual.
    Obama had pretty good growth rate on national level as well, see how Hillary ended.

    Even the Economist and the Financial Times in the past week, occasion of Marx's birthday, are admitting it's time to read it up. I'm no supporter of Marxist systems, but wealth distribution is going to be one of the key drivers in Western politics for the next decade, not GDP growth. Political leaders who brag about the latter and forget the former are bound to annihilation.
    Last edited by Basil II the B.S; May 06, 2018 at 02:00 PM.

  7. #67
    NorseThing's Avatar Moderator
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    Default Re: Calexit starts gathering signatures

    NY Times Article on California boom and bust
    SAN FRANCISCO — The United States is on track to achieve the second-longest economic expansion in its history. Unemployment is at a 17-year low. And California’s state budget has a multibillion-dollar surplus.

    So why is its longtime governor, Jerry Brown, issuing prophecies of doom?

    “What’s out there is darkness, uncertainty, decline and recession,” Mr. Brown said recently after presenting his final budget to legislators.
    California has accounted for about 20 percent of the nation’s economic growth since 2010, significantly more than its share of the population or overall output. But Mr. Brown, in his final year in office, has raised the question on the minds of those paid to think about the economy: How long can this last?

    For California and the nation, there is a long list of things that could go wrong. A surging budget deficit could stoke higher interest rates. And if the recent upheaval in stocks signals a longer-term decline, it would hurt California in particular because its budget relies heavily on high earners whose incomes rise and fall with the market. President Trump’s moves to upend longstanding trade arrangements could be a setback for the state, home of the country’s biggest port complex. And because the growth of the technology industry has played a huge role in California’s recent boom, a drop in company valuations or in venture capital investments would reverberate swiftly through the state’s economy and tax receipts.

    “I don’t think there’s any reason to believe we are going to have a recession this year or the next year,” said Christopher Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics, a consulting firm in Los Angeles, referring to Mr. Brown’s grim forecast. “He’s just pointing out the obvious, which is that things feel good now but there is going to come a time when all hell is going to break loose — and we better be ready for it.”

    Mr. Brown’s statements highlight California’s distinction as a state of high highs and low lows. From the recession of the early 1990s to the 2001 dot-com crash to the housing collapse of a decade ago, downturns often end up being more pronounced in the state than elsewhere. The next recession, whenever it comes, will almost certainly land harder here than it does in the rest of the country. And that boom-bust pattern is especially tough on California’s budget — something that Mr. Brown, who was first elected governor more than four decades ago, knows well.

    In 2009, as the last recession took hold, California state revenue fell 19 percent, versus 8 percent for state revenues nationwide, according to Moody’s Analytics. There has been a strong rebound since then, but the gains are unlikely to last. That is because California’s government relies on a heavily progressive income tax that generates most of its revenue from a relatively small number of wealthy taxpayers whose incomes are erratic.
    Even a blip in the stock market can punch holes in the state’s budget. And because stock prices have more than doubled during Mr. Brown’s term, it seems like a good bet that whoever succeeds him will face challenges. If and when that day comes, any proposal to increase taxes will probably be unpopular. Mr. Brown already raised income taxes to address the state’s last budget mess, and California taxpayers took a further hit as a result of the new tax bill, which curbed the deductibility of state and local taxes on federal returns.

    “His successor gets a world in which revenues are more volatile,” without the option of raising taxes, said David Crane, a lecturer in public policy at Stanford University and a former adviser to Mr. Brown’s predecessor, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. “That’s a really tough world to operate in.”


    Big Swings

    The economy and job market are more volatile in California than in the nation as a whole. The state’s job losses are more severe in bad times, and the gains are more pronounced in good times.
    California’s employment volatility,
    relative to the U.S. average

    INDEX: U.S. = 100

    170

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    120

    110

    100

    ’80

    ’85

    ’90

    ’95

    ’00

    ’05

    ’10

    ’15


    California’s employment volatility, relative to the U.S. average

    INDEX: U.S. = 100

    170

    160

    150

    140

    130

    120

    110

    100

    ’80

    ’85

    ’90

    ’95

    ’00

    ’05

    ’10

    ’15




    FEB. 13, 2018
    By The New York Times | Source: Moody’s Analytics

    A recession would also further expose problems that have festered for decades. Across California, cities and school districts are having trouble keeping up with ballooning pension obligations, squeezing teacher salaries and state services. In warning about budget troubles to come, Mr. Brown was making a case for adding more of today’s surplus to the state’s rainy day fund to cushion the blow of the next downturn.

    Mr. Brown’s final State of the State speech also included plenty of optimistic notes and pushes for big spending in the future on items mostly outside the state’s general fund. He talked about “setting the pace for the entire nation” and embracing big infrastructure projects like a high-speed rail line despite doubts about its viability as costs mount.

    “You have all of these projects that he wants to do,” said Stephen Levy, the director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, an independent research organization. “He’s saying, this year may be rosy, but watch out, it ain’t going to continue. And I agree.”

    Even in prosperity, California has plenty of problems. The bulk of its recent gains have flowed to wealthier coastal cities, leaving inland areas behind, and a severe housing shortage has led to punishing rent increases and rising homelessness.


    Still, economists generally agree that the state’s long-term prospects are bright. It is home to many of the world’s most valuable and innovative companies, and it attracts an outsize portion of the skilled work force and venture capital financing, helping it create new industries as old ones slow down or fade away.

    And recession forecasting is a tough business even for those whose livelihoods depend on it, like Ed Del Beccaro, a senior managing director in the Walnut Creek office of Transwestern, a commercial real estate brokerage. He manages a team of brokers and travels around the Bay Area giving speeches and forecasts to chambers of commerce and other business groups.

    “Two years ago I was predicting a recession in September of 2017, and in October I said we were going to have a recession at the end of 2018,” he said. “Today I think that unless we get bombed by North Korea, we will have a pretty amazing two years of growth.”

    With a sudden spurt in demand for office space, Mr. Del Beccaro said, he is hiring new workers and spending more on marketing to prospective clients. “I was just authorized to go out and get more brokers and offer them incentives to hopefully get them to switch over from other companies,” he said.

    But winter will come eventually, and when it does, Mr. Brown’s counsel about planning ahead may help shape how California weathers it.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/b...recession.html


    Sorry about the graph, but the article is worth a read. Go to the link if you really want to see the graph -- it is not worth it though. California has a history of bigger swings of both boom and bust than the general USA economy. An economist will tell you that that the required compensation thus needs to be larger to compensate for the volatility. This is in part why you read about the big gains and big busts in California businesses. Nothing to get too excited about, really.

    There has been mention in the thread about how California is less suited to be self sufficient than Texas and other areas. I would disagree but then self sufficiency is a bit of a delusion in all cases since the open economy can sell surpluses and purchase to compensate for shortages just as is done today as a state within the union. The same goes for the water allocations and other worries. It all has been worked out with or without California being a state within the USA or a state separating from the rest of the USA.

    I am not advocating succession, but such is not cataclysmic to either California nor to the rest of the USA if it were to come about. These separation stories are not new though.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ni..._North_America is on my bookshelf as a classic of the genre with about a half a dozen similar titles.

  8. #68

    Default Re: Calexit starts gathering signatures

    Quote Originally Posted by swabian View Post
    Charlemagne didn't found the HRE, that was 250-300 years later.

    That's not why i'm interrupting though. Please forgive me.

    I would suggest that the current talk is about historical societies and their survivability in light of the undeniable success of urbanized "societies". Can people who grew up without roots, who are urbane and semi-nomadic understand the feelings of a Greek, a Macedonian, a Switzerlander, etc. when Mexico City alone has twice their population?

    No, of course they can't. Don't even try, it's all wasted. They will allways think of you as some primitive who dwells in caves or rural hamlets.
    +1 go with what swabian says from what I remember his opifex is for making arthurian total war which was set exactly in that time period. So I'd assume he knows what he's talking about :p
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