The 2018 Midterm Elections

[Pontifex Maximus]

Well, I am sorry to say, I do not see a way for Republicans to maintain the House of Representatives in 2018. After the resignation of multiple Republican congressmen (and by this I also mean those congressman unwilling to run for another term including Paul Ryan), I think the GOP will lose control of Congress in 2018 in a spectacular way. In articles by CNN and FoxNews, both outlets theorize that Republicans will not maintain a majority in Congress in 2018. At this point I must say that I agree, although it pains me to say so. The Republicans have, sadly, squandered these 18 months of control of the government by failing in large part to deliver on campaign promises of 2016. There were some marked successes with regards to the Obamacare Mandate and tax reforms, but I would say that the GOP delivered on barely 50% of its promises.

The prognosis for the midterm elections for the Republicans is bad and worse. I would like to believe that Republicans could hold onto things but this increasingly seems to be a pipe dream. I am not an expert on Congress at all, or even Trump. I am way more comfortable commenting on law, but that doesn't come into play much in this determination so...

1) Will the GOP lose control of Congress?
2) If so, what will that mean for the future of Trump's campaign promises?
3) What will this mean for the propensity for Trump's re-election?
4) If successful, what will a democrat controlled Congress pursue in terms of policies in the Trump era?

[Derpy Hooves]

1. Likely no.
2. Unless the Dems change their approach to Trump, nothing. If they do, and compliment him a bunch, then he'll turn to the left.
3. He shouldn't be reelected. While he has done some good, his public image is extremely toxic, and is damaging to the GOP.
4. They've already said they're going to get rid of the tax cuts. The only monetary difference between the two parties is that the Dems are consistent, they raise taxes so they can spend more. The Reps lower taxes and increase spending.
It's a shame Ryan is stepping down and not McConnell.

[Prodromos]

A lot can happen in seven months. Remember that in 2016 every one was predicting a Blue Wave. How did that turn out?

[Pontifex Maximus]

2. Unless the Dems change their approach to Trump, nothing. If they do, and compliment him a bunch, then he'll turn to the left.

This is what I'm the most afraid of, actually. The televised meeting where he said he would consider raising the gun purchase age to 21 based on the pleas of democrats in the room makes me nervous. Trump still has this streak of yearning for the approval of who he considers to be the elites.

3. He shouldn't be reelected. While he has done some good, his public image is extremely toxic, and is damaging to the GOP.

I don't think there's an alternative, but I also disagree with your contentions. The democrats used the same tactics they're using against Trump on Bush and Romney. It doesn't matter who the GOP sends into the presidential race, he will be a racist, misogynst, homophobe etc who must be defeated because he will be so bad for x, y, or z group. Remember Romney's "binders full of women"? The democrats cried wolf. (warning for video: adult language). Now when they have an actual slime ball in their sights, nobody cares except them.

It's a shame Ryan is stepping down and not McConnell.

Agreed

A lot can happen in seven months. Remember that in 2016 every one was predicting a Blue Wave. How did that turn out?

This is true, I hope you're right.

[alhoon]

Well, I am sorry to say, I do not see a way for Republicans to maintain the House of Representatives in 2018. After the resignation of multiple Republican congressmen (and by this I also mean those congressman unwilling to run for another term including Paul Ryan), I think the GOP will lose control of Congress in 2018 in a spectacular way. In articles by CNN and FoxNews, both outlets theorize that Republicans will not maintain a majority in Congress in 2018. At this point I must say that I agree, although it pains me to say so. The Republicans have, sadly, squandered these 18 months of control of the government by failing in large part to deliver on campaign promises of 2016. There were some marked successes with regards to the Obamacare Mandate and tax reforms, but I would say that the GOP delivered on barely 50% of its promises.

The prognosis for the midterm elections for the Republicans is bad and worse. I would like to believe that Republicans could hold onto things but this increasingly seems to be a pipe dream. I am not an expert on Congress at all, or even Trump. I am way more comfortable commenting on law, but that doesn't come into play much in this determination so...

1) Will the GOP lose control of Congress?
2) If so, what will that mean for the future of Trump's campaign promises?
3) What will this mean for the propensity for Trump's re-election?
4) If successful, what will a democrat controlled Congress pursue in terms of policies in the Trump era?

1) I believe GOP will retain control of senate and congress because there are more Democrat seats in play and gerrymandering and the simplistic win\lose races benefit the Republicans. A system of "Ohio has 16 representatives. How many each party gets depends on the results of the whole state" would be better and would put the GOP at a greater risk.
2) If the Republicans botch the elections really bad and lose either Senate or House, it would put a big dent to Trump's campaign promises.
3) This would mean that Trump's already slim chances to be re-elected would further decrease.
4) They will take a good look at what their "enemies" suggest and would propose the opposite. If Trump wants to pass a wall, all he has to do is propose defunding every and all plans for walls at the border future and current and even the tearing down of the fences where they now are. This will prompt the "Automatically oppose what the other side suggests regardless of arguments!" congress to pass huge walls in all borders of USA, even with the sea. You can never trust the sea. Climate change will raise it. Sea is an illegal immigrant.

[Derpy Hooves]

This is what I'm the most afraid of, actually. The televised meeting where he said he would consider raising the gun purchase age to 21 based on the pleas of democrats in the room makes me nervous. Trump still has this streak of yearning for the approval of who he considers to be the elites.



I don't think there's an alternative, but I also disagree with your contentions. The democrats used the same tactics they're using against Trump on Bush and Romney. It doesn't matter who the GOP sends into the presidential race, he will be a racist, misogynst, homophobe etc who must be defeated because he will be so bad for x, y, or z group. Remember Romney's "binders full of women"? The democrats cried wolf. (warning for video: adult language). Now when they have an actual slime ball in their sights, nobody cares except them.


Agreed



This is true, I hope you're right.

It's not because of how the Dems are painting Trump, its because of how Trump paints himself on twitter. He comes across as a petulant child.

[Pontifex Maximus]

3) This would mean that Trump's already slim chances to be re-elected would further decrease.

Why do you think his chances of reelection are slim at this point?

4) They will take a good look at what their "enemies" suggest and would propose the opposite. If Trump wants to pass a wall, all he has to do is propose defunding every and all plans for walls at the border future and current and even the tearing down of the fences where they now are. This will prompt the "Automatically oppose what the other side suggests regardless of arguments!" congress to pass huge walls in all borders of USA, even with the sea. You can never trust the sea. Climate change will raise it. Sea is an illegal immigrant.

I think even with a failure to deliver on the wall will be seen mainly as the fault of the machinations of Trump's enemies, democrats, turncoat Republicans, and other sources. I think Trump will effectively dodge blame for it. He should beware, since his list of Republican scapegoats is thinning.

It's not because of how the Dems are painting Trump, its because of how Trump paints himself on twitter. He comes across as a petulant child.

That's certainly one interpretation, but not one widely held by his base I think. It can also be interpreted as transparency. I disagree with both of these interpretations or at least find them both half true. As for me I think every politician should be banned from twitter the moment they announce their candidacy and be forced to engage professionally with the public, but apparently this makes me an out of touch elitist.

[antaeus]

I'm not sure what difference having the GOP control both houses or not really makes. Fringe Republicans are doing just as good an opposition job as the Democrats lately anyway.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Wouldn't be surprised if the republicans did lose their majority, but it also doesn't mean much. Under Obama the democrats lost the majority in the mid terms aswell, yet he still got re-elected.

[Greyblades]

I sometimes suspect that much of trumps supporters do not read trumps twitter often, not only because based on the facts that his twitter posts seem to exclusively accrue negative replies but that most of the actual major hits to trump's core approval usually come from actions outside the twitter sphere such as passing the omnibus spending bill and bombing syria.

[Pontifex Maximus]

I sometimes suspect that much of trumps supporters do not read trumps twitter often, not only because based on the facts that his twitter posts seem to exclusively accrue negative replies but that most of the actual major hits to trump's core approval usually come from actions outside the twitter sphere such as passing the omnibus spending bill and bombing syria.

I disagree, I think the majority of them do follow him on Twitter and read his posts. I think they are very forgiving of his behavior either because his policies are directly impacting them in a positive way or he is still seen as very much the lesser of two evils. I don't have any evidence to prove this though

[Derpy Hooves]

Everyone on the right I talk to wishes he would keep his mouth shut

[Pontifex Maximus]

I certainly fall into that category, but I thought i fell into a minority of people who think that as soon as someone announces candidacy for the Presidency, they should be banned from all social media outlets and rely on tried and true methods of disseminating information. Perhaps they wish he would keep his mouth shut just so the media couldn't smear him. Maybe there's some guilt over supporting him in spite of his ridiculous tweets. I'd say this still belies an overall feeling that while the man himself is obviously extremely flawed, his policies are not.

[antaeus]

Both my father, and father in law like Trump for the same stated reason... Because he doesn't self censor, he 'straight talks' and 'doesn't care about being PC'

Of course, when quizzed on specific things he says without mentioning that he said them, neither likes what he says. So I think trump probably benefits from a lot of forgiveness because people like the idea of him rather than the actual him.

But we're a little off topic now.

[Gaidin]

I certainly fall into that category, but I thought i fell into a minority of people who think that as soon as someone announces candidacy for the Presidency, they should be banned from all social media outlets and rely on tried and true methods of disseminating information. Perhaps they wish he would keep his mouth shut just so the media couldn't smear him. Maybe there's some guilt over supporting him in spite of his ridiculous tweets. I'd say this still belies an overall feeling that while the man himself is obviously extremely flawed, his policies are not.

Is it smearing when they don’t have to do a hack job between what he says and then the bs he says does a good enough job painting this picture of himself?

[L'Afrique]

Is it smearing when they don’t have to do a hack job between what he says and then the bs he says does a good enough job painting this picture of himself?

You're talking about the party who cries "slander" when a politician who openly opposes equal rights for lgbtq people is called "anti-lgbtq"

If you criticize a GOP candiate's words and actions it's a smear campaign. The only legitimate reasons to support or oppose are candidate are gut feelings.

[alhoon]

Why do you think his chances of reelection are slim at this point?

I think even with a failure to deliver on the wall will be seen mainly as the fault of the machinations of Trump's enemies, democrats, turncoat Republicans, and other sources. I think Trump will effectively dodge blame for it. He should beware, since his list of Republican scapegoats is thinning.

I believe his chances are slim because he got elected by slim majorities against the most unpopular democratic candidate and since then he has been governing in confrontational and controversial manner. His ratings are among the worst, if not the worst of any recorded president.
Some that is not a toxic candidate (Like Hilary was) would defeat him. Say... pick a democrat governor or megacity mayor that didn't do a bad job. No need to have done a good job, as long as he hasn't done a bad job he or she can win against Trump.

I agree on where the failure of a wall would be blamed by Trump. However, the answer was to the question on how a democratic Congress would affect Trump's agenda nor how he would react on that.
Keep in mind that I don't think Republicans would lose their majorities yet. Kinda too early. It usually happens in the 6th year of a POTUS, not the 2nd.

Wouldn't be surprised if the republicans did lose their majority, but it also doesn't mean much. Under Obama the democrats lost the majority in the mid terms aswell, yet he still got re-elected.

And his power was insanely limited in 2014, leaving him only executive orders that Trump now overturns. If Trump presidency showed me anything is that the Founding Fathers were very smart people that put tons of safety valves to limit the power of the President. A POTUS without political allies can't do much.

[Love Mountain]

Republicans can lose control of Congress for sure. The nature of House districts is that the elections have been less and less competitive as decades have gone by. Out of the 8 seats Republicans have to defend, something like 5-6 of them are fairly safe. Considering the current breakdown of the Senate, it seems likely that Democrats will seize control of the Senate. Midterms favor the party out of power and Trump has been a PR disaster. Not that this really matters. Republicans haven't been able to accomplish any major domestic agenda even with having control of all three branches. Whether Democrats or Republicans control Congress is honestly irrelevant. Democrats are however in position to retake several governor seats that are up in the coming elections which imo, is the bigger story.

[Gaidin]

You're talking about the party who cries "slander" when a politician who openly opposes equal rights for lgbtq people is called "anti-lgbtq"

If you criticize a GOP candiate's words and actions it's a smear campaign. The only legitimate reasons to support or oppose are candidate are gut feelings.

"You're not allowed to criticize a GOP candidate's words because I say so"

Right.

Maybe if Trump did a better job.

[Magister Militum Flavius Aetius]

Some analysis of polling is saying that Nuclear energy policy will actually be a big player in this year's elections.

http://dailycaller.com/2018/04/20/nu..._medium=Social

The California Govenor's race and SC's Governor's race are both swirling around nuclear power (one planned shut down, one abandoned construction). Ohio, Pennsylvania, and a myriad of other states are facing closures. Nuclear counties tend to be conservative, so candidates promising to save plants and thousands of jobs are going to have a lot of sway.