Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

[Elmetiacos]

...with polls showing a 6 point Conservative lead, the possibility of a large number of Conservative Brexiteers voting against their own government to trigger an election, should not be discounted. The closer the PM gets to those who want a watered down Brexit, the more likely this prospect. Likewise if it looked like May was set on a course of no deal Brexit, I am sure those Tories who are in the Remain camp woud also do similar and jump ship. Either way I'd say the outcome is must likely the collapse of the government after a motion of no confidence and an election prior to the UK leave date, despite yesterday's vote.

But bear in mind the Conservatives had a 20 point lead last time and somehow blew it. They will not be confident of holding onto a much smaller lead going into another election. Also, they would have to find a new leader very quickly since May has stated she will not lead them into the next election.

[NorseThing]

France is now making preparations for a 'No Deal' Brexit. Maybe much more probable, but there is also a chance the EU technocrats that mastered the deal with May are having second thoughts on the tough line.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46906046

[Muizer]

Instead none of the parties made it the principle focus of their campaign, with hardly any MPs publically declaring their position on Brexit.

It's not that there aren't any parties with clear positions on Brexit, but the fact that your voting system causes people to vote strategically, in this case for 2 parties that are internally divided on this issue. FPTP makes it very difficult for a democracy to reflect changing attitudes/alignments.

France is now making preparations for a 'No Deal' Brexit. Maybe much more probable, but there is also a chance the EU technocrats that mastered the deal with May are having second thoughts on the tough line.https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46906046

The noises coming from the EU are really not that hard to interpret: further negotiations only are viable if May cuts loose the Brexiteer faction and reaches across party lines, so as to secure a majority for something both sides might agree on. I suppose it's the notion that the EU is seen as 'punishing' the UK that gives rise to the idea that the EU might yet give more concessions. What can I say. One has to live in a British bubble to think that. There is no sense of urgency on the mainland about trying to prevent a no deal brexit, because that's considered to be something only the British themselves can avoid now.

[caratacus]

It's not that there aren't any parties with clear positions on Brexit, but the fact that your voting system causes people to vote strategically, in this case for 2 parties that are internally divided on this issue. FPTP makes it very difficult for a democracy to reflect changing attitudes/alignments.

That's why an election campaign must be on the basis of the position of a local MP on Brexit. This must be made clear and categorical. Only an election can settle this thing constitutionally. This parliament is redundant! this government is redundant! Talk of referendums is a complete cop out and attempt to muddy the waters still further. I heard Gordon Brown in an interview tonight proposing a 12-14 month delay on Article 50 whist a public consultation exercise is done and a referendum vote held afterwards. What would that do to the British economy! What would that achieve if there wasn't an overall majority! It is politicians like him that have created this crisis and loss of faith in the political process.

But bear in mind the Conservatives had a 20 point lead last time and somehow blew it. They will not be confident of holding onto a much smaller lead going into another election. Also, they would have to find a new leader very quickly since May has stated she will not lead them into the next election.

Yes indeed, the problem of May's successor splitting the Tories, is the only reason she is still there. If a large section of the Conservatives bring down their own government would it split the party, it may well do so. But the unity of the Conservative party certainly cannot happen until this crisis is resolved one way or the other. Right now those divisions are only being patched together by uncertainty over which way May will proceed, it will not last. I think whichever faction of the Tories pulls the plug on the government, they would do so with more concern about their own seat from not doing so, than the position of the party in the polls. Brexit means that the voting pattern of the electorate will be fundamentaly different than previous ones and a lot more difficult to predict.

General Election speculation grows as Theresa May faces more Cabinet feuding
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-a4042746.html

[Muizer]

That's why an election campaign must be on the basis of the position of a local MP on Brexit. This must be made clear and categorical. Only an election can settle this thing constitutionally. This parliament is redundant! this government is redundant! Talk of referendums is a complete cop out and attempt to muddy the waters still further. I heard Gordon Brown in an interview tonight proposing a 12-14 month delay on Article 50 whist a public consultation exercise is done and a referendum vote held afterwards. What would that do to the British economy! What would that achieve if there wasn't an overall majority! It is politicians like him that have created this crisis and loss of faith in the political process.

Tbh a second referendum is indeed a lot more about 'getting our (remainer) way by whatever means' than about conducting a proper democratic process. The only justification for it is that people would now have better insight about what it is they vote on, but where is the large swing in public opinion to back up that this would make a difference? I don't see large throngs of people protesting "We were fooled, please save us from our prior ignorance".

Don't get me wrong, I personally think Brexit is a mistake in the sense that the British will be worse off for it, especially if it's the Conservatives' version of it which sounds a lot like a return to a 19th century distopia to me, but the +- 50/50 split of public opinion doesn't suddenly disappear. A victory for remain in a second referendum would just piss off the other half. It's all been too much about 'winning' and 'losing' and trying to claim the referendum result as suporting preexisting agendas/ideologies.

My guess? I suspect the free movement of labour is the single most important reason for people to vote leave (and probably, a lot of remainers share that, but just don't think it outweighs the overall benefits). It would have been much more astute to negotiate on that point alone. Why? Because almost every European nation has to deal with a growing segment of the population who share that sentiment. On the other hand, most Europeans would call you stark raving mad if you proposed to lock yourself out of the single market and start trading with the rest of the world instead. I think it has to be some holdover from British colonial days to think that could even be an option to consider.

[Aexodus]

The EU is very insistent that to join their customs union, you must accept freedom of movement. They’re very insistent on this, apparently it’s crucial to their pan-European project.

However, Turkey has a deal with the EU, which is sort of another customs union between the EU and Turkey. The EU definitely wants to set an example here and punish the UK for leaving in my opinion.

@Aexodus,

I don't recall the Irish border being much of an issue in the run up to the referendum. Would you say that the EU/Ireland are attaching a disproportionate weight to it in the Brexit negotiations, and that this is may be less about having a genuine concern than about finding ways to make life difficult for the UK?

Yes, I do. Prior to the referendum there was talk about a technological solution, involving micro chipping and screening.

Prior to the EU, there was a free movement area between the Republic and the Kingdom that exists to this day. There is zero reason to remove this.

We should do it the way Norway and Sweden do it, an open border but customs checks for goods and services.

Option 1 - Short Term

• No visible change to border, Goods & vehicles are micro chipped and logged when crossing the ROI/NI border for duty /tariff payment. Install border CCTVs for discrete monitoring of people crossing the ROI/NI border. Possible EU/ROI/UK technology investment in discreet monitoring at new artificial “border” at ROI points of entry i.e. Ports and Airports to provide additional screening.

Option 2 - Medium Term

• Again no visible change to border, goods & vehicles microchipped for crossing the ROI/NI border to address any duty/tariffs that need to be paid. No border monitoring of people crossing ROI/NI border. Create an artificial “border” at UK Airport/ Port points of entry to the UK “mainland” to allow monitoring of people travelling from Ireland. Find a technical solution for monitoring NI citizens carrying dual passports.

Option 3 - Long Term - World's first dual Sovereignty Zone.

• No Border, goods & vehicles now microchipped for crossing the NI/UK and NI/ROI borders to address any duty/tariffs that need to be paid. Hard border at UK Airport/ Port points of entry to the UK “mainland” to allow monitoring of allpeople travelling from Ireland. Technical solution in place for monitoring NI citizens carrying dual passports entering UK.

EU idealist pen-pushers in Brussels love rules. They want to legislate everything to an airtight degree. To them, the NI border has to be clean and perfect, whereas realistically the people on the ground don’t want it, north or south. Pretty soon, the EU is going to learn people don’t give a toss what Brussels thinks.

The Irish government want to abuse the border as a method to get their way.

I think the issue is over-emphasised. There is a solution, that involves NI leaving the customs union and the republic remaining. Ultimately it’s down to Dublin if it wants to be closer to Westminster or to Brussels. Currently 40% of their trade is with the UK.

Remainers, the Irish Government and Brussels are exploiting the border, with the combined aim of keeping the UK in the EU, and a United Ireland, which are both democratically opposed to.

Premium article

The poll in this newspaper revealing that support in Northern Ireland for leaving the UK stands at a paltry 21 per cent is a salutary reminder of the facts. Were there signs of majority opposition to the Union, Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley would be required by law to call a border poll. As there are none, she has confirmed that she will not be doing so. Indeed, the Union is markedly more popular in Northern Ireland than it is in Scotland.

It is a myth to say a border poll needs calling, let alone that it is in danger of being lost, least of all “because of Brexit”. The most successful Union in history endures but, unfortunately, so do many other myths about Brexit and the border, and it would be useful to deal with them, too.

First of all, there is a border: it hasn’t gone away. It is a tax, immigration, currency, political, international, excise and security border. It’s also not one of Europe’s weightier ones. Sixty-five per cent of Ulster’s trade is internal to the province, 20 per cent goes to the rest of the UK, and merely 5 per cent goes to the Republic. A miserly 1.6 per cent of the Republic’s exports go north, and only 1.6 per cent of its imports come from Northern Ireland. Furthermore, the bulk of the trade is highly regular, so it is simple to regulate. There are 13,000 border crossings annually solely for the production of Guinness. Likewise, movements in the milk trade are utterly predictable at both ends, and ideal for ease of monitoring.

Smaller traders can be dealt with flexibly, and government can improve its game. “Authorised Economic Operators” are the best way to guarantee frictionless trade. Germany has 6,000 of them, we have 600. The idea that issues cannot be solved is demonstrably untrue. Niall Cody, head of the Irish Revenue, has been clear that vintage border posts from a Tintin illustration aren’t needed – points repeated by Lars Karlsson, ex-director of the World Customs Organisation, for the EU’s report into this, and by the head of our own HMRC. There are no insurmountable technological problems, only, thus far, political ones. Not one new, untried technology is required to make this work.

Opportunities have been let go. Earlier in the Brexit talks, the Irish government asked the EU Commission to consider an agricultural free-trade area for the British Isles. Brussels refused. Dublin, too, has made mistakes. Under their previous prime minister, Enda Kenny, Irish officials cooperated with ours to find solutions. When the current Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, came to office, he ended such cooperation on the grounds that he didn’t want Ireland to be providing solutions to

Any attempt to fully seal up the Irish border would leak like a sieve and have the effectiveness of a knitted condom.

[mongrel]

The EU is very insistent that to join their customs union, you must accept freedom of movement. They’re very insistent on this, apparently it’s crucial to their pan-European project.

However, Turkey has a deal with the EU, which is sort of another customs union between the EU and Turkey. The EU definitely wants to set an example here and punish the UK for leaving in my opinion.

The EU didn't invoke Article 50 prematurely, nor did it fluff up the Brexit implementation, nor wind up Parliament so much it had no choice but to spank May's bottom.....hard....again and again, er.. ahem... Blame can only be laid at one door, the one with number 10 on it.

Loving Finton O'Toole's rant about the process. I suspect he's right, these shenannigans are not about the EU at all, it's the collapse of a system which is utterly unequal, biased towards the wealthy and so-called think tanks and which has for so long been contemptuous of its less well off citizens. I'm fascinated that Parliament has decided there are limits.Now I'm ranting.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...it-for-purpose

France is now making preparations for a 'No Deal' Brexit. Maybe much more probable, but there is also a chance the EU technocrats that mastered the deal with May are having second thoughts on the tough line.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46906046

It makes me sad that other countries are having to build unicorn enclosures.

[Aexodus]

A useful article on the border.

Why the solution to Brexit is not to have one border, but two

Dublin is choosing to be deliberate obstacle towards a solution for a territory outside of their jurisdiction or claim of jurisdiction as of 1998.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...06996?mode=amp

4. Technology and cooperation are used to create a “frictionless” BorderBritain has put forward ideas for using new procedures and technology to make a new Irish Border as free as possible after it leaves the EU trading bloc. For example, big traders might get pre-clearance for goods movements, there might be special allowances for smaller operators and an attempt to keep regulations the same in key areas like agriculture.

Former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, in a UK media interview on Monday, said the most likely option was to “make technology work in most cases and to throw a blind eye to those areas that can’t come in within technology.” His comments won’t have been welcomed by the Government here.

The problem:

This would mean the return of a trade Border on the island, albeit that there is argument about how visible or intrusive it would be. This has been ruled out by the Irish Government, which has pointed to the political dangers of reimposing a Border and the threat it could pose to the Peace Process. It is also far from clear how some checks on good movements could be avoided if the UK does leave the EU trading bloc. Under rules set by the World Trade Organisation, both Britain and the EU would be obliged to have sufficient controls at their borders on goods movements. This route would also seem to provide new opportunities for smuggling and criminality.

This is my preferred solution.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Just to remind everyone (and contribute to why indeed as i think we all agree, this mess is entirely due to the government)- here's Liam Fox, International Trade Minister on why there has been 0 international trade deals pursued (even theoretically):

Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, has said that other countries are to blame for the fact that the UK does not have alternative trade deals ready by 29 March to replace the existing 40 EU ones that will lapse if the UK leaves without a deal. Asked about this revelation in today’s Financial Times (see 10.57am), he said:[The agreements are] not just dependent on the UK. Our side is ready. It is largely dependent on whether other countries believe that there will be no deal, and are willing to put the work into the preparations.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-politics-live

His own words. That's right, its every other countries fault (Not just the EU, but also partners we've tried to seek out).

Jesus ing Christ. If that's not Tory exceptionalism, i don't know what is. Incompetent does not even begin to cut it. Its everyone elses fault, but there's. I can't imagine such a blame approach will play well with prospective partners anyway.

The Conservative vision of 'global Britain' is an absolute giggle-fest. What's more, we now also hear that after their purported commitment to the principles of the Human rights act post-brexit, now its back for being 'up for review' in a post-brexit context. So you can guarantee too that working rights and protections are assuredly up for grabs (Prior to this it was obvious various Conservatives in Cabinet and the wider party wanted to downgrade them, but it now seems to be moving into government policy spheres- So much for May helping the 'average working person'- not that she's done anything remotely like that at all).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...BdlV6NJ8Ano5A4


I don't normally get this annoyed at them- But there's only so much of the blatant bare faced lying and treating the public like idiots i can take. I'll be back to dispassionately commenting soon but my underlying thought currently is genuinely i hope whatever happens with brexit, results at least in these absolute incompetent morons ruining their own party enough to foster a split that is a majority one and whatever rises from the ashes, can stay the out of office for the next few terms while they get their act together again and ditch the idiotic ideology 'at all costs' policies and go back to research-based principles (the kind they used to brag about). At least there's the hope that it would be a right-wing party who actually gives a toss about the general public too (as it would have to under FPTP make some serious adjustments in being 'pro-people' if it wants to survive).

[Basil II the B.S]

Watching Oxford products like David Cameron and Sharia May crash and burn has been a joy for the past three years.

The UK is paying for an electoral system that warrants stability at the expense of competence and has doomed the country into a slow, constant decline with no hope of stirring the course. FPTP has achieved the amazing outcome that a Remain leader now leads the Leave faction, while a Leave leader leads the Remain faction. In this convoluted nonsense, no other party can arise on the basis of useful vote.

Do not despair though, Germany is hitting recession before you.

[Daruwind]

Just to remind everyone (and contribute to why indeed as i think we all agree, this mess is entirely due to the government)- here's Liam Fox, International Trade Minister on why there has been 0 international trade deals pursued (even theoretically):

Completely agree. It is their responsibility to get the deals ready.

However it is probably great opportunity for other countries to sqeeze a lot from UK. All they have to do is wait and them after possible no deal scenario, push Uk with harsh terms, they wil have great advantage due to UK being in time pressure... think of countries like Spain (Gibraltar), Argentina (Falklands)....

[mongrel]

Completely agree. It is their responsibility to get the deals ready.

However it is probably great opportunity for other countries to sqeeze a lot from UK. All they have to do is wait and them after possible no deal scenario, push Uk with harsh terms, they wil have great advantage due to UK being in time pressure... think of countries like Spain (Gibraltar), Argentina (Falklands)....

Why May can't do the sensible thing and extend Article 50 (at the very least) is really a mystery to me.

Sharia May .

No nonsense off topic references please. She's incompetent for sure but is certainly is not an islamophile.

This is a serious thread and I would like it kept that way.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Completely agree. It is their responsibility to get the deals ready.

However it is probably great opportunity for other countries to sqeeze a lot from UK. All they have to do is wait and them after possible no deal scenario, push Uk with harsh terms, they wil have great advantage due to UK being in time pressure... think of countries like Spain (Gibraltar), Argentina (Falklands)....

Exactly right, its something i raised way back- but the bright side of brexit- the ability (and necessity) to create our own trade deals is a two-edged sword. A UK government prepared for brexit (Say the 15 year mark advocated once)- sure you could do some very interesting things.

But given the UK has an incredibly weak and floundering economy (Not to do with brexit), with a huge rise in working poverty that remains unaddressed that is having a direct squeeze on disposable incomes, which morality aside is already having a major impact on spending that's harmful to a developed consumer economy. Add to this the current political context- divided, weak and it would be absolutely necessary for the conservative government to secure trade deals quickly, if they want to justify whatever the type of brexit it is we end up with (and thus try to cling to office)- they will want to expedite things and sign quickly (given that trade deals take years usually... add to this the UK literally does not have enough trained negotiators...still).

So we're going to get absolutely taken to the cleaners by everyone. The USA and China are two particularly to watch out for as both have a highly successful history of imposing their own regulations and conditions in what are unequal agreements, Trump and Xi Jinping merely exacerbate this trend. There's a reason CBI wrote to the PM a while back to make sure she understood the risks to British industry that any agreement with the US has (I.e.we die).

Now sure its fair to argue that brexit itself as a concept would not necessarily lead to this- but that's not what i'm talking about. In THIS current context for brexit its what will happen. Its key benefit is actually a massive risk for the UK's economy because of our current position economically and politically- both of which have been completely ignored. This isn't even indeed taking into account as you've said, states that have a current territorial or geopolitical rivalry with the UK.

Why May can't do the sensible thing and extend Article 50 (at the very least) is really a mystery to me.

It actually reportedly gets worse mate. The EU are apparently baffled as May's 'new' deal...is..

http://fortune.com/2019/01/18/may-re...it-eu-leaders/

Literally the same. She's offering no changes. She's merely been calling to ask them for further concessions.

It doesn’t hurt to ask? That appears to be the philosophy of U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May, who reportedly asked German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other European Union leaders for the same concessions for Britain’s exit from the consortium, or “Brexit,” as she had before her previous plan failed to pass Parliament.The Telegraph reports that May called around to EU leaders after her plan for a negotiated Brexit failed by a historically disastrous 230-vote margin. Under an amendment approved before the vote, she has just days to present a backup measure to MPs.
May reportedly asked leaders for the same accommodations that the EU had previously turned down. May has competing factions within her party and its coalition partner from Northern Ireland with strikingly different demands for Brexit, and has sought the maximum flexibility in crafting an impossible proposal. A source told the Telegraph, “She hasn’t asked for anything new.”

This is the same deal overwhelming rejected by Parliament and the kind of concessions the EU has already said no to. The EU had previously stated it would be more than happy to renegotiate with the UK something new and that was more
'market access' orientated (Ala Corbyn). But May literally has ignored this, is sticking to her position that everyone hated. I'm starting to come round to the idea of a 'Maybot' malfunctioning at this rate. Its insane, even if she succeeds in getting on board some MP's from the opposition like the Lib-dems, and convincing some of her own party....its literally not enough given it was defeated by 230... the entirety of the DUP and Lib-dems even if they all for some reason voted for her would not make a dent to that.

EDIT:

In the wake of this- three Cabinet Ministers and 6 Junior Ministers have told their constituency parties to prepare for a quick General Election.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politic...repare-general

I suspect that either this deal gets defeated, or their looking to topple May (who remember has promised not to lead them into a new GE as part of the deal for her staying). I suspect though an article 50 extension is now certain if this happens (i.e. May attempts to bring back the same deal).

[caratacus]

I don't normally get this annoyed at them- But there's only so much of the blatant bare faced lying and treating the public like idiots i can take. I'll be back to dispassionately commenting soon but my underlying thought currently is genuinely i hope whatever happens with brexit, results at least in these absolute incompetent morons ruining their own party enough to foster a split that is a majority one and whatever rises from the ashes, can stay the out of office for the next few terms while they get their act together again and ditch the idiotic ideology 'at all costs' policies and go back to research-based principles (the kind they used to brag about). At least there's the hope that it would be a right-wing party who actually gives a toss about the general public too (as it would have to under FPTP make some serious adjustments in being 'pro-people' if it wants to survive).

Some would argue that this is not a Conservative party in the traditional mould but has signifiantly moved to the centre ground of politics together with Labour. Both the main parties have become mirror images of one another. Labour is not a Socialist party and hasn't been for years.

It seems to that the EU has been a dividing issue for a considerable time amongst the Tories and Brexit is likey to cause the rupture that is long overdue. The type of party based on free market economics with traditional values that appeals to small businesses and the working classes is not the present Conservative party who's focus is more upon big bsiness and upwardly mobile progressives.This was especially s under David Cameron. If you think a reshaped Conservative party that will emerge from a split will not be popular amongst a large share of the electorate, I think you may be disappointed. However, any emergent party will likely suffer from the same lack of quality pariamentarians that afflict all the parties, as is plain to see by the shambolic implemetation of Brexit.

Seems the UK leaving the EU will not only cause our economy to drop off a cliff but take the Earth's wildlife with it.

How Remain group targeted millennials with Facebook warnings orang-utans and turtles will die if Brexit isn't stopped
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...s-orang-utans/

Facebook is accused of 'pumping out fake news' after running advertisements suggesting Brexit was a threat to endangered animals
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...fake-news.html
Facebook ran adverts claiming orangutans were threatened by Brexit
Two prominent pro-Remain campaign groups paid the US firm to run the ads
The advert claimed they are in danger from Britain’s ‘plans to reverse’ an EU pledge to ban palm oil.

Two prominent pro-Remain campaign groups paid the US firm hundreds of thousands of pounds to run the ads intended to raise support for a second referendum. Data from the social media site shows that People’s Vote UK and Best for Britain spent £373,587 in the run-up to last week’s vote on Theresa May’s Brexit plan, according to the Daily Telegraph. Leave-backing groups spent £93,000.
Facebook reveals who is buying political adverts on the site but groups do not have to reveal how the campaigns are financed.

Makes you wonder where all this money is coming from to undertake a campaign some two years after the referendum and what is the motive. perhaps they pay in Euros?

[Basil II the B.S]

Btw Dante why do you think the UK has a particularly weak economy?

Sure there are relatively big issues, like over the top private debt (and when recessions happens bailouts make it public debt, see the last time) and lack of housing but wages have been improving, unemployment isn't that high and growth is ok compared to the international context.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Some would argue that this is not a Conservative party in the traditional mould but has signifiantly moved to the centre ground of politics together with Labour. Both the main parties have become mirror images of one another. Labour is not a Socialist party and hasn't been for years.

It seems to that the EU has been a dividing issue for a considerable time amongst the Tories and Brexit is likey to cause the rupture that is long overdue. The type of party based on free market economics with traditional values that appeals to small businesses and the working classes is not the present Conservative party who's focus is more upon big bsiness and upwardly mobile progressives.This was especially s under David Cameron. If you think a reshaped Conservative party that will emerge from a split will not be popular amongst a large share of the electorate, I think you may be disappointed. However, any emergent party will likely suffer from the same lack of quality pariamentarians that afflict all the parties, as is plain to see by the shambolic implemetation of Brexit.

I can get that argument as fair- however this is the Conservative party directly forged by Thatcher and the neo-liberal tradition she purported. I would actually like nothing better than the Conservative party to go back to its traditional so-called 'wets' roots. That held indeed the importance of working class and actual liberal-trade policies based upon a pragmatic model. A reshaped Conservative model- i wouldn't even mind if they were popular enough to regain office. However in all seriousness partly due to as you said a lack of talent, but also to get a clear identification of the issues that need to be tackled (which traditionally parties in power cannot do- as they have to defend their 'record' and all aspects of the current economy rather than admit faults) they NEED some time in opposition as indeed has been talked about by some Conservative back-benchers.

Realistically though the chance for a reformed Conservative party is incredibly slim due to the usual FPTP stuff- it would need to be a significant portion of the party that splits, alongside its supporting infrastructure- alas a GE would quickly follow (given the arithmetic) in which it would be a massive mountain for the 'split' version would have to be climbed. Reform certainly will not come from any current potential leadership candidate. But yeah, the dream of a reformed Conservative party that pragmatically tackles nationalism of key infrastructure (which has mass public support from swing voters- indeed this is where i think the Tories need to be worried, if Corbyn is ousted or steps down- his policies are supported across the political spectrum, it literally is just him whose holding Labour back ) as opposed to ideologically sticking to what essentially is a broken model of neo-liberalism in the UK. It would be great.

EDIT: @Basil- sorry it took a while mate, is anyone elses google and Firefox working strangely by the way? I've been trying to get my usual sources and instead its now listing simply a series of web-addresses with no details to their contents. Quite frustrating. Anyway-

Btw Dante why do you think the UK has a particularly weak economy?

Sure there are relatively big issues, like over the top private debt (and when recessions happens bailouts make it public debt, see the last time) and lack of housing but wages have been improving, unemployment isn't that high and growth is ok compared to the international context.

Because the high employment figures are the issue- We have high employment (but not stable employment), but low productivity and wages are still far outstripped by cost of living, in terms of goods and necessities and indeed inflation (Though in the past year this has changed- but that's not yet a sustainable curve as we've seen before, and also has been due to arguably unsustainable moves bade by the BoE to keep inflation down- we're essentially operating in crisis mode, when technically there is no crisis- we're supposedly in a 'boom' period... if this is boom there is something seriously broken in the UK - add to this that wage growth is not seemingly slowing again...when it had barely got moving). Moreover we have steadily rising 'working poverty' and food-bank use from people who are employed. The over-the-top private debt is also a serious issue in the context of the mantra of poorly implemented austerity- its essentially shifted back public deficit gains to private households- the former is essentially benign (public debt can be dealt with in a myriad of ways that are sustainable), the latter is an economy killer where growing numbers of working people are already struggling. The UK economy is still highly imbalanced in terms of weighted sectors and we're about to see post-brexit the removal of worker protections. Politically again austerity hasn't helped, nor achieved its aim- it has though with for instance universal credit and cut backs dangerously damaged UK education (so long-term consequences) sustainable healthcare and areas of potential UK growth drivers that would have contributed to the economy becoming more balanced- i.e. eco-tech, IT and infrastructure (Where the government sure as hell should have been a pathfinder investor). Add to this the fact that literally- the Conservatives have essentially been in stasis on the domestic front for the past two years in terms of addressing any of this and you have the perfect storm, where living standards indeed are falling in real terms. With a government doing absolutely nothing about it. Particularly a key issue is the extreme rising levels of inequality in the UK (As we've discussed sure, its partly due to the persistence of a class system, but its also to do with the structural impact this has on the UK economy and in terms of the extreme profiteering being allowed to take place).

I get that UK growth isn't doing too badly in the international context- but move beyond that to comparative wage growth, living standards and productivity- and the UK is way below the OECD average (iirc we are unlike the rest of western-Europe circling below the EU average significantly). Add to this that indicators seem to say 2019 will be a recession. We are not remotely ready. The UK is going to be hit again having honestly not recovered from the last. So the Conservatives misuse of figures like employment and selective interpretation of stable growth really now pisses me off as its genuinely merely a holding action while they...what, i don't know exactly? Play a really lame version of Game of Thrones for the throne of Conservatism?

[Basil II the B.S]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-poll-suggests

A leaked poll commissioned by the pro-EU Best for Britain campaign suggests that voters would be less likely to back Labour if the party was committed to stopping Brexit.

According to the poll, passed to the Guardian, almost a third of respondents said they would be less likely to vote Labour, a similar number to those who said it would not make a difference. Twenty-five per cent said it would make them more likely to back Labour, with the rest saying they did not know.

They forgot to mention that ''Best for Britain'' is a project by Soros but that's ok.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-poll-suggests


They forgot to mention that ''Best for Britain'' is a project by Soros but that's ok.

Indeed i saw this, its essentially as you described earlier quite aptly in terms of FPTP- a leaver fronting remain, and a remainer fronting leave (though i disagree as i posted earlier that May is trying to sabotage brexit , i think she's more just selfishly following through with regards to protecting her legacy as PM- hence her 'red lines' and even in the face of the biggest parliamentary defeat ever, she's going to come back with the same damn deal). Its why though i think Corbyn is pursuing his 'workers brexit' model- he wants it personally, it'll help labour in terms of any potential (and now there's a serious likelihood of it happening given the Tories preparing for it) general election and is least likely to be controversial as he can hardly be accused of 'betraying brexit'. Again as i said before- regardless of personal opinions- i would actually be a lot happier if it was Corbyn's Labour carrying out brexit- at least then i know that unlike as the Conservatives are attempting now, they would not try to further screw over working protections and sneak in structural changes that they know would not command any mandate at a GE. They would also be serious about offering needed state investment in a post-brexit environment to current and new British industries, instead of leaving it to the 'free market' (which is currently broken and pending another reform) of 'Global Britain' which in said environment would see British industry current and potential absolutely squandered on its alter.

[Basil II the B.S]

I didn't say she's trying to sabotage it btw. I don't think she understands what she's doing at all.

I'm also not sure if Corbyn wants this hot potato at all. In Brussels they have all of a sudden panicked at the idea of Brexit dragging to the European elections in May (the month aha) because the Eurosceptic right is surging in Spain, so he'd have less than 3 months to get a deal likely to pass in the parliament. The times of politics aren't that fast.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

I didn't say she's trying to sabotage it btw. I don't think she understands what she's doing at all.

I'm also not sure if Corbyn wants this hot potato at all. In Brussels they have all of a sudden panicked at the idea of Brexit dragging to the European elections in May (the month aha) because the Eurosceptic right is surging in Spain, so he'd have less than 3 months to get a deal likely to pass in the parliament. The times of politics aren't that fast.

Ahh my apologies mate. My bad with assuming there. But i agree there's clearly a lack of plan (Familiar theme in British politics throughout honestly )

The point about the European elections is a good one. As far as i know Corbyn's plan that he endorsed last week is essentially a 'straight forward' (in theory) customs union- we keep their regulations and working rights, protect jobs etc. There are none of May's 'Red lines' that were the sticking point. So i think he has a better chance of getting us to brexit than the Conservatives do.

The issue here falls down in that while the EU-side will be easier, and he doesn't have a hard-brexiteer wing to pressure him, he does have a mass of remainers who i think would essentially fill that same roll.

The cynic in me also questions (and there is a case to be made) that throughout this process Corbyn has been trying to give the impression of 'holding the Conservatives to account' but has no interest in taking the reigns from them as a Conservative brexit will only benefit him in the subsequent GE- the card 'you ed up the country' is a powerful one and has the potential political capital to be spun in much the same way the Conservatives with resounding success managed to blame 2008 on Labour in such a way that it got them into power. So alas for my feels but the politics perhaps indeed will see Labour reluctant to try and take the lead, and instead watch the Conservatives implode.

Of course none of this is good for the UK- even Corbyn's ardent supporters who claim he will 'make everything right' once in Office is a strech- especially as a no-plan UK will (most likely now) either somehow end up remaining in the EU/extending article 50 while we figure out what to do -the latter being i think the most likely, or we'll go Tory brexit with no trade deals remotely in place, with our WTO schedules blocked by Russia and co (alongside the US and some 'allies), with an inadequate amount of negotiators and experience of negotiating, with a British economy and infrastructure not prepared yet at all for being on WTO terms and a domestic crisis that iwill be exacerbated by the high potential of a global recession in 2019/2020 (Though i feel the recession is more likely to come from the developing world and the issues surrounding massive amounts of formerly cheap loans propping up economic modernization when interest rates are now rising and the exposure this has for banks- or of course from China and its slowing down (though not stagnating iirc consumer base).

So yeah- party politics- i'm sure this is all great stuff- in reality less great .