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Thread: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

  1. #1401
    caratacus's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Elmetiacos View Post
    It isn't the EU calling for a second referendum, it's Remainers. However, I'd suggest the other group which should be is the ERG: the only way they'll get No Deal is to sell it to the people ─ they sure as Hell won't ever sell it to Parliament.
    If government elected with a Brexit mandate, can no longer implement it, we no longer have a functioning government and new elections must be called. The people have had enough of all this, MPs must be made answersable to the electorate. Moves to have May relaced with an interim PM solves nothing and the idea of allowing opposition MPs on Monday who are not part of the Government, decide the management of the most important events since the end of WW2 is competely inappropriate, in the context of both the referendum vote and that of the last election.

    To have a Chancellor, elected as part of a Government to administer leaving the EU, now be saying that he sees the merits of a sercond referendum, is absolutely disgraceful.
    Brexit: Hammond says campaign for second referendum is 'perfectly coherent' and 'deserves to be considered’
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8837356.html

  2. #1402
    Heinz Guderian's Avatar *takes off trousers
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Which way will you vote caratacus? I'm for staying in. The pound will get stronger and then i'll be able to buy more crap in the Gulf.




  3. #1403
    caratacus's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Quote Originally Posted by Heinz Guderian View Post
    Which way will you vote caratacus? I'm for staying in. The pound will get stronger and then i'll be able to buy more crap in the Gulf.
    If Brexit happens and the pound falls permantly (which it won't) I guess we can sell your Gulf friends a lot more of our stuff, like the Tempest fighter which is set to replace the Typhoon. That should be an incentive for May to get on with it. After all, the Germans have been using an undervalued Euro to boost their exports for years.

    Britain unveils fighter jet model to rival Franco-German programme
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/def...man-programme/
    Britain unveiled a model of a sleek proposed fighter jet named Tempest yesterday (16 July), raising questions about the future of European defence cooperation, given that Germany and France launched their own fighter jet programme a year ago.
    At the Farnborough Airshow, Defence Minister Gavin Williamson said 2 billion pounds ($2.7 billion) had been earmarked to finance the programme out to 2025 and that Britain would seek international partners to provide additional funding.

    The aircraft, meant to eventually replace the Eurofighter Typhoon jet, will be developed and built by BAE Systems Plc , Britain’s biggest defence company, alongside UK engine-maker Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc, Italian defence firm Leonardo, and European missile maker MBDA.
    BAE Systems shares fall over Germany's ban on arms exports to Saudis
    Embargo threatens UK’s pending £10bn deal to sell 48 Typhoon jets to Saudi Arabia
    https://www.theguardian.com/business...orts-to-saudis


  4. #1404
    swabian's Avatar igni ferroque
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Mhh… i'm not sure if that is entirely true. It's simply not in the interest of Germany to drain the markets of her most important customers, which are our fellow Europeans after all. A unified monetary standard and buying capacity, that's rather why the € turned out to be not all that bad for Germany. Well, it could potentially do the same thing for other Europeans as well.

  5. #1405

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Britain unveils fighter jet model to rival Franco-German programme
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/def...man-programme/
    Britain unveiled a model of a sleek proposed fighter jet named Tempest yesterday (16 July), raising questions about the future of European defence cooperation, given that Germany and France launched their own fighter jet programme a year ago.
    At the Farnborough Airshow, Defence Minister Gavin Williamson said 2 billion pounds ($2.7 billion) had been earmarked to finance the programme out to 2025 and that Britain would seek international partners to provide additional funding.
    May will probably put Chris Grayling in charge of defence and all the planes will fall out of the sky accompanied by a comical "phut, phut, phut!" sound.

    But I'm being frivolous now.
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  6. #1406
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    So May just lost a vote that stupidly, she did not have to lose as it was already kind of government policy...but at the last minute she decided to try and whip the Tories...and the shallowness of her authority has been exposed:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi...et9-nBxELns-zs

    Theoretically Parliament and not the government now have control over the order of business on Wedensday (meaning they can decide what is and isn't voted on). This means indicative votes on different outcomes of brexit will be sought to find an option that has a 'proper' majority. Ironically this is something May herself sort of outline (giving parliament options- though not on an indicative voting system)... but she didn't have to try and fight this one at all, she could have accepted it as it kept in with what she said would happen.

    But this is Theresa May of course...so for reasons that make 0 political sense she decided to fight it, whipped the Conservatives and astoundingly still lost it. Now while the government is not practically bound by the outcome of parliaments indicative votes. Its a major blow (as if any more were needed) to the Government, There are potentially future constitutionally implications for this (A Government with no stable majority can now potentially in theory, though not necessarily practice have Parliament seize control on serious and pressing national issues). So well done May..her hubris has effected now more than merely brexit.

    While again theoretical is also will have practical implications for the government going forward. Immediately it means her bringing her vote back is disrupted- she might try and do it tomorrow in a panic, or delay it as far as possible- however now if she tries that Parliament with legitimacy can turn around and say she didn't listen to them (as Wednesday at the end their will probably at least be a option that has a house majority). Her legacy is in tatters thus no matter what she does- ignores parliament and the Conservative government will get blamed for how things turn out, go along with Parliament and she's remembered as the PM who lost her authority and ability to craft policy. Longer-term it means second ref, softer brexit are now all serious options.

    May might try and call that GE after all .
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  7. #1407

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Theresa May has an approval rating of only 29% in the latest poll. That's still higher than Corbyn because he's managed to antangonise Remainers who are the bulk of Labour voters... still going and asking for the public to bail you out when nearly three quarters of them don't like you is a weird choice
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  8. #1408
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    It is rather a dangerous choice for the government. But seems to be seriously on the cards now in Cabinet discussions.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/br...iscussion-mps/

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...continues.html

    I get the reason behind it, as there is artificially or not, the potential for Parliament to create a consensus for something now that is against the governments manifesto and against May's 'red lines'. Which would create the circumstances for a GE to resolve things. Its again the stupidity of the Conservatives making brexit party-political when they have absolutely no stable majority to ensure they can keep it that way, its a hole they've entirely dug themselves by actively avoiding building a consensus that is viable. So i think there's no real choice, May will be behind it as it would if she 'succeeds' (Broad definition here ) at a GE it also means the knives at her back will have to be sheathed and she can go on and be PM for the whole term at least (Much as Corbyn solidified his position after Labours performance at the GE essentially de-legitimized moves to get rid of him, May's is a bit harder of course as she has to keep Office and improve the party position, Corbyn merely had to improve the party position to be able to silence his immediate threats).

    What's more interesting generally- according to the link to the I there, in leaked conversation snippets from that Cabinet meeting it seems May is prepared to now entirely remove 'no deal' as an option herself despite the protests of the ERG and take it off the negotiating table altogether (I.e. make it clear that we do not accept leaving with no-deal, even by default to the EU- i suppose to try and make headway). This is a move that Javid and Hunt are against as they argue the default 'no deal' is the only actual card Britain has.

    If it proves true, it means even the millions wasted on entirely ill-adequate and uncompleted no deal preparations were absolutely pointless. But i suspect there very inadequacy is why the Government is considering removing 'No-deal' altogether. We're in political party mode and their all looking towards the best path forward that does not result in a toxic split/actual break up.
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  9. #1409
    Daruwind's Avatar Citizen
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    What's more interesting generally- according to the link to the I there, in leaked conversation snippets from that Cabinet meeting it seems May is prepared to now entirely remove 'no deal' as an option herself despite the protests of the ERG and take it off the negotiating table altogether (I.e. make it clear that we do not accept leaving with no-deal, even by default to the EU- i suppose to try and make headway). This is a move that Javid and Hunt are against as they argue the default 'no deal' is the only actual card Britain has.
    But it was bluff card whole time, there were never seriously prepared to use it. It is like in poker, UK should folded long time ago, stop calling/raising with such crappy cards..

    Another problem is, with passing time the possible no-deal scenario is less and less problematic. Okay it will be mess anytime, however EU is preparing and no-deal now would be less problem then year ago and in half a year it will be again lesser impact. Plus the idea of no-deal brexit is now in air for two years. So the shock impact is lesser. I think the biggest problem for trading,stocks,...is in sudden changes for which you are not prepared. Panic....herd behavior. Right now, anybody fearing brexit had long time to take at least some precautions.

    But even if biggest impact will be for EU and Germany, look at german goverment budget. Probably one of the best in EU. And quess who will profit most from no-deal brexit...china,USA..
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  10. #1410
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    @Daruwind (sorry is it only my quote box that doens't work? )

    This is true indeed, a no-deal brexit due to lack of time and lack of any real preperation of significant scale was always merely a dream-scape (and then there is the political problems surrounding it, which are huge for the party and individuals that do it and as i've whined about before stem from the nature of the brexit campaign in promising far too much and leaving 'will of the people' as the basis laid it wide open to being undermined very quickly and actually discrediting brexit if it was implemented). But aye even as a card- it would hurt the UK vastly more than the EU. However in terms of political u-turns and strategy this was quite a major admission (in the leak) and begs the question what was thus even the point of the entirely inadequate no-deal preparations and the millions spent on them (Which of course was more a negotiating pitch than an actual plan) if their not even used in negotiations. Arguably the whole thing was more for domestic consumption though, to look like the government were 'ready' and 'in control'...which to anyone who has followed the process closely like us likely chaps- is a joke of course. But i suspect they hoped that many in General public would be lulled into believing they were competently handling things.



    General Comment -So today is indicative vote day, going to get real interesting. Already some major stuff-

    I have long felt we did not have enough factions within parliament? I'm sure you guys felt the same? So it seems the ERG have split. Reese-Moggs is now on board with May, the brexit press are saying he's lost his nerve, the Remain press are crowing that he lacks conviction. He admits that its now likely 'May's deal or no brexit'.

    This is a victory for May that i'm unsure if she is actually worthy of the credit. I suspect it more being a happy accident for her in terms of who blinked first and at this late hour, Moggs has for the first time (as it was May's line for months to no effect) decided that May's threat of 'no brexit' was tangible if her deal did not get through.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ve-see-brexit/
    Disappointingly, a number of pro-Brexit Conservative MPs, including most notably Jacob Rees-Mogg, are now apparently considering switching to backing May’s deal. That won’t make her deal pass. Even if every pro-Brexit MP had switched to backing May’s deal at the second vote, it would still have been defeated by its pro-Remain opponents. And since that time, the pro-Remain Conservative rebels’ ranks have expanded.
    Its indeed as the article said, entirely unlikely even with Moggs and some of the ERG she will get it through.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ve-Brexit.html

    It also has Boris now considering supporting May's deal, with an eye to it forwarding his own ambitions (which is all brexit was for him, especially as i'm personally fairly convinced by the leaks that had him panicked that brexit was happening- originally his opposition being a Me vs Cameron match for leadership candidacy.

    There is a lot of anger i've seen around the press comments at least directed to Moggs and Boris from former supporters. Which i can understand as these are rather large U-turns. Boris for instance actually resigned a cabinet post over this before (Which again in my view was a political stunt to place himself as a leadership contender, which it did somewhat). But if they follow through on this, the ERG whose influence was already not as large as some 'Remain' or 'Soft' factions will essentially for the Withdrawal debates cease to be a political force (And i don't think trade talks will help later- if we brexit at all the way things are going, as they seem to be fundamentally split on these issues too).
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  11. #1411
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    I still can't edit my posts...so i'm afraid this will have to do but-

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...quit-live-news

    May has stated she will resign if her deal passes (whenever it is brought back) in a talk with the 1922 Committee. This has given the gun-shot to the brewing leadership contest and is likely according to many, to mean that Moggs and Boris and co will now support May's withdrawal agreement. Of course its a gamble for all, as its unlikely the Conservative party will end up with Boris, or a brexiteer of the ERG mould. It also essentially means that a GE will follow shortly after a leadership battle, so we're now already looking at an election earlier than 2022 as the new leadership will need the legitimacy of a mandate to essentially do anything in terms of crafting the future relationship.

    What this actually changes on the ground if May does resign? Not much honestly. Same issues stand, it might even make things worse in terms of Conservative party splits as many Tory MP's themselves have stated that any leadership battle in this brexit context will be incredibly toxic, and could see the party indeed officially splinter.
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  12. #1412

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Embrace unelectability or keep May.

    Now thats a tough choice.
    Pity the man with no country or home, revile the one who forsakes his own.

  13. #1413
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Well put indeed .

    Also on tonight's business- All indicative votes have failed to gain a majority. However, several options scored higher than May's deal did on its second time.

    Thus apparently on Monday we're going to 'phase two' of the Indicative voting plan and the three options plus May's deal will potentially be presented and then of those 3 they'll run if i'm getting this right a 'normal' majority vote to get the result.

    The one that scored highest tonight is a second referendum on any deal made, between that deal and remaining. So it looks like if this path is followed there might be a high chance of a second referendum as the 'top' option. Then came a permanent Customs Union with the EU.

    Calls for a customs union with the EU were rejected by 272 to 264 votes while a call for a referendum to endorse any deal was rejected by 295 to 268 votes.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47728333

    So either of these are now essentially the front runners for getting somewhere going forward. That's IF this is followed through of course.

    The other alternatives now are May brings back her deal somehow (despite Bercows ruling) and it somehow wins. She's offered to resign to try and gain support, but that offer collapsed after the DUP have said shortly after that there is no way they'll ever support her deal. So there is currently 0 hope of May's deal winning.

    The other option, and i'd never thought i'd say this, but Politics does not go to plan - is the failure of May's deal and the failure to definitively settle any other option (No deal and Single Market 2.0 were resoundingly rejected) means the ONLY way forward now is a General Election.

    This could get interesting, as it seems likely in such a case the Conservatives would lose seats to the SNP (The Tories and Labour becoming neck and neck) looking at the polls. This could essentially see the Conservatives in quite the spot of bother, especially when you add this to the fact that May will be leading them. Their only in power due to Scottish gains that (not to go too far off-topic) were mooted at the time to merely be temporary, as Scotlands Unionist vs Independence divide was prominent in 2017 GE, and Corbny was predicted to lose badly, thus unionists essentially were left with just the Conservatives as an option to vote against the SNP. So it'll be interesting to see how much that bears out, the next battleground for any General Election will potentially be fought and decided in Scotland.
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  14. #1414
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    There is a forth option (Please merge- edit issues again).

    That being Theresa May brings back her deal, with the offer to resign and with a binding commitment that if her deal passes it goes back to the people for a second referendum on that vs status quo. That would combine the support of her resignation built today (Still not enough though), with the option that has the most support from indicative votes. It might be enough to clear the finish line as i'd expect the Lib-dems and potentially SNP and some Labour to jump for that.

    She might also try and scrap the resigning thing and just do the Second Referendum offer...though i'd have to crunch numbers.
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  15. #1415
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    I find it odd a second referendum was even voted on here. I thought the point was to figure out what kind of deal might find a majority for it in parliament.
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

  16. #1416
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    It wasn't technically a second referendum which is why it was on there as far as i understand it. It was a call for a peoples vote on ANY deal that is decided. The question would be that deal vs remain. So it sort of gets around the oddness of outright having a second referendum as a 'deal'.

    General Note- Seems Monday Parliamentary votes round 2 is going ahead- its apparently very likely that 'ranked voting' will be used. This will force the outcome for a vote- the likely candidates, Second Referendum on any deal, Permanent Customs Union, and potentially May's deal. So by Monday's end there will be at least a mandate for something. Anyone want to place bets? I'm pretty certain, unless the DUP U-turn and May shores up further support that her deal will lose. A Permanent Customs Union- the brexiteers would never agree to that, even if they did support May's deal now(Ala Boris and Moggs). It essentially means the UK will be bound to EU institutions and have no independent trade policy, i can't see that getting through. So my money currently is on the Second Referendum option. That could then mutate into a rerun of May's deal/The ranked vote option that came 2nd vs Remain, or if the timer is running out it would mean that it would be a case of No-deal vs Remain potentially that would be put to the public a few days before the deadline of the extension.

    So yeah- get your popcorn ready Monday, but bear in mind- even after all this, May can essentially just ignore it and do something else (though it would mean the Conservative government shoulder absolutely the blame for what comes next with no real legitimizing factor for their actions in Parliament or with the people).
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  17. #1417

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    Second referendum anyday. People wanted Brexit by a slim margin, now it's happening let they decide the course of action.


  18. #1418

    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    And result of the indicative vote is: EVERYTHING SUCKS! All options have been rejected, even though that ought to be logically impossible. It's like sitting in a restaurant with someone who refuses to leave while not wanting anything on the menu.
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  19. #1419
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    @Elmetiacos- this is true indeed Though in fairness to Parliament it was merely the first stage of this process. The ranked voting Monday on the 'top' options from this will force a majority for something. Without going into my analysis above, it'll probably in the end come to Second Referendum vs Permanent Customs Unions vs May's deal (Or the latter two, with the qualification they will be put in a referendum to the people to appease everyone to pass them).
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  20. #1420
    JP226's Avatar Dux Limitis
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    Default Re: Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

    So when is the do-over vote happening?
    Sure I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is Im not. I honestly feel that America is the best country and all other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism.

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