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Thread: No longer an impossability -- Cobryn becoming prime minister

  1. #61

    Default Re: No longer an impossability -- Cobryn becoming prime minister

    Quote Originally Posted by Sukiyama View Post
    Ending austerity is a positive move. Restricting the economy as of right now is foolish. Low interest rates, high unemployment, and anemic GDP growth. Austerity is literally prolonging the pain while not cutting the deficit.
    We did a small scale of this procedure on Portugal, a sort of timid keyniasism, but was still enough to lower our deficit to ~2% which is the lowest deficit since 1975-4.
    During austerity years we never managed to get deficit below 3%
    It will be seen that, as used, the word ‘Fascism’ is almost entirely meaningless. In conversation, of course, it is used even more wildly than in print. I have heard it applied to farmers, shopkeepers, Social Credit, corporal punishment, fox-hunting, bull-fighting, the 1922 Committee, the 1941 Committee, Kipling, Gandhi, Chiang Kai-Shek, homosexuality, Priestley's broadcasts, Youth Hostels, astrology, women, dogs and I do not know what else.

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  2. #62
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: No longer an impossability -- Cobryn becoming prime minister

    Quote Originally Posted by NorseThing View Post
    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41614820

    I think our Labour Leader is thinking this is like plumber brings a pipe wrench and assorted tools to work. It is nothing like this. Robots will replace repetitive task, dangerous tasks, precision tasks, etc. It is not like a robot can be paired with one worker in some sort of dating episode.

    I have hopes for the man, but this seems to be lacking. Perhaps this is simple politicking.
    Indeed i think this is probably a fundamental problem in UK politics currently, that their is only now tentative steps towards dealing with increasing automation, i guess the bright side if that at least Labour and iirc the SNP are looking into how we might have a debate on what to do. The Conservatives are still in 'stick you head in the sand' mode.

    For instance i'd add to your list of tasks that also ai will take over certain elements of the 'creative' aspects too- its here that the big issue comes as it destroys the idea that we all just need to become artists, poets and the like . For instance the current big story is that Junior lawyers are being phased out in favour of an ai computer program which deals with contracts, agreements, minor civil cases etc- again there was that whole story run about the most popular law firm in the US actually being one that is an ai program. Though of course this isn't quite 'creative' yet- but then there is the fact architects are now also in the firing line due to computer programs increasingly becoming more sophisticated so that the job of building design can be done with cutting out the middle man- i suspect that is indeed what a lot of mid-term automation will be about- removing the middle man between consumers and the end product by replacing them with a program that the consumer can use themselves. The issue of course is the 'service economy' model of the first world is all about 'dat middle man'. So indeed Corbyn's ideas of a 'pair off' aren't quite there yet.


    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Here's the thing - it won't "help" working class. What happens if minimal wage is raised? It becomes more expensive to maintain employees, unless you find a way to replace them - which a lot of companies do? Electronic cashiers are becoming more spread now. If anything, rising minimal wage will make these more prevalent.

    Again, as I pointed out earlier, would this really solve the issue? Some companies will replace employees with electronics where they can, or simply cut down on how many they employ. So first and foremost, this would lead to rising unemployment and even more burden for taxpayer.
    What should be done instead is actually lowering tax rates. Unlike minimal wage, this is more fiscally attainable, as cutting down welfare and being less trigger happy about "spreading democracy" via costly military campaigns in some foreign land could save you a lot of money, while allowing citizens to spend more with the money that is not spent on government.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business...r-donald-trump

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7993476.html

    Some background reading for the framework of my reply.

    Firstly i think the issue is your trying to apply an economic ideology as if it could work anywhere around the globe. Economics does not work like that, its something i'll give Basil his due to here in argument that economics MUST be built around a states individual context. The low-tax, low regulation model for the UK will not work, because we're already half way there and it isn't working. The UK has, and indeed is set to have one of the lowest rates of corporation tax in the first world, its taxes are already relatively lower than average by comparison to its first world competitors.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/20...e-australia-us (bear in mind this is set to fall again for the UK).

    Heck looking at it, even the right-wing 'real free market' Tories poster-boy of Singapore has higher taxes than the UK on incomes.

    Indeed then add that adopting a 'true' low tax regime is beyond the UK's means, our economy is a service economy (So goody bye to the models used by many developing states). We cannot shift everyone into the tech and research market as the UK has a population of 60 million, thus we will always have a predominantly 'working class' based economic regime.

    Lowering UK taxes is not going to work thus- it will have no more affect than now. While as the IMF's recent report shows that actually if you want real wealth redistribution raising taxes is actually the way to go. The UK suffers majorly from a growing disparity between the top earners, and everyone else- as i've said, in real terms wages are not just stagnant for the vast majority of people- but falling. We're at the point now as i've shown where working poverty is a rising concern, the use of foodbanks by those in full time 'skilled' jobs is happening. This is because of the low tax regime arguably.

    Its about to get exacerbated as i've posted by the fact automation is happening, the bank of England report alone was clear at the sweeping consequences... its happening regardless of if minimum wage hikes take place or not, because A) You cannot have a race to the bottom where prices are rising, and wages falling and expect people to 'live', particularly in a first world society (Because for instance in a modern economy access to the internet is a basic necessity- you cannot even get an unskilled retail job without filling out the online form now, so the arguments used by some of 'that's not real poverty' is because it depends on a states economic context) B) automation even without a minimum wage will still be 'cheaper'- factor in the 24/7 use, the ever-cheapening cost of automatizing- the fact too that automation isn't just physical machines, but computer programs and online software, no holiday pay, no sick pay, no cost beyond running and point of purchase (Which arguably will be quite cheap due to the already flooded market of IT techs and software/hardware engineers as government policy has ruthlessly promoted ironically the STEM subjects over and at the expense of all others, training a generation who will literally do themselves out of a career)- a human will never be able to compete with that- heck ironically the third world isn't able to compete with that- as i posted a while back about China's automated factories, or the impact its expected to have on Bangladesh (Its mid-term set to create a greater migratory crisis than we've yet seen as jobs are relocated back to the first world...but not providing any actual 'benefits' i'll try and find the lecture on this as it was both interesting and harrowing).

    In this context the idea of a low-tax, low welfare state on the good old Free trading 'night-watchmen' model is dead. Its unfit for the digital age. I tend to agree (weirdly for me!) with Martin Wolfs point that globalization and automation should have been/should be accompanied by an expansion of welfare provision. In these new contexts that facing You need ironically an increase in the welfare provision- in education so that all can access it free at every point in life to accommodate the impending job flexibility necessary in the mid-term, you could look at UBI- something i think isn't quite the right answer, but is an option, you could look as Kings did at the states provision of broadband, basic bills and food. Regardless some form of increased social democracy is the only way to make not just the domestic market 'work' and viable again, but also to ensure political and social stability during the so-called 'Fourth industrial revolution'. Again your not looking here at the UK context, or indeed at the predicted economic trends, your presenting a short-term solution (One favored by the Conservatives) that just wouldn't work over time- indeed i'd question if it would even work now- as i said taxes are incredibly low, the welfare state has been streamlined quite viciously by an economically destructive and idiotic policy of austerity, and yet we're still sinking into this mess.

    Where i do wholeheartedly agree with you is in the need to stop spending loads on failed foreign interventions for no concrete benefit. The fact the Conservatives are even considering going to war with N.Korea should Trump demand it i find hilariously mind boggling. What's worse though it would appear after brexit, perhaps to try and throw some weight around the globe, it seems that the government plan for Britain to be more and not less active in intervening in foreign entanglements- perhaps because arms exports are really one of the few things the UK has going for and even that the current conservative brexit strategy throws into significant doubt as voiced by the industry. But yeah, a scaling back and recognition that a multipolar world means both greater opportunity, and greater care should be taken in international diplomacy (as i'd argue the west is finding out in Syria where its been 'beaten' by Russia in effect at the geopolitical games).
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; October 15, 2017 at 07:00 PM.
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  3. #63
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: No longer an impossability -- Cobryn becoming prime minister

    Quote Originally Posted by Basil II the B.S View Post
    I have not.
    It's an amazing game. Seriously, try it.

    I watched Terminator...Their logical processor will deem humans not only worthless but detrimental to society
    Terminator? it's an imbecilic film. I recommend Bicentennial Man,based on the well-known novella of the same name by Isaac Asimov. A wonderful film. Can a robot gain all the rights of humanity?I don't want to spoil the movie...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dante Von Hespburg View Post
    In this context the idea of a low-tax, low welfare state on the good old Free trading 'night-watchmen' model is dead. Its unfit for the digital age.
    A worthy discussion.Take a look,
    Automation, Job Loss, and the Welfare State | Council on Foreign ...
    The first source cited is Keynes, to begin at the beginning..."Economic Possibilities For Our Grandchildren", essay written in 1930.
    Last edited by Ludicus; October 15, 2017 at 05:17 PM.
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  4. #64
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: No longer an impossability -- Cobryn becoming prime minister

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    A worthy discussion.Take a look,
    Automation, Job Loss, and the Welfare State | Council on Foreign ...
    The first source cited is Keynes, to begin at the beginning..."Economic Possibilities For Our Grandchildren", essay written in 1930.
    Cheers for that mate, an incredibly interesting discussion there. Its fascinating to see that the US shares some of the problems the UK is/will be facing with automation. While i disagree with some of the panel on the scale of automation's displacement- i lean more towards Andy Haldanes report on it, but again he's talking in a UK context. Its interesting that their is a cross-recognition of needing to do something based around the easy provision of flexible training (Labours National Education Service), the use of the government as an 'employer of last resort' as opposed to straight up UBI (Though i find the Kings College solution currently a wee bit more workable and interesting). Also they have directly i feel hit the nail on the head that its not just job losses, but the fact that the 'safe' jobs and the ever increasing number of jobs created and in demand are in fact incredibly low paid carers, nurses, cleaners, sales assistants- they are not jobs that will provide a salary to build a life around- and this is a key issue, particularly as discussed, eventual automation of those jobs may actually compound the issue.

    The foray into the structure of modern companies had some good points too- the issues attendant with large multinational corporations are i think we all agree plentiful (particularly in how to tax them fairly). I tend to put forward tentatively that the future structure of companies (again to agree with Martin Wolf) should be based upon that of a cooperative if we want fair working conditions and pay for the time worked, its interesting indeed that the UK at least is seeing a revival of this model of business, arguably in the face of so many corporate scandals- their is a 'market' for them to play the co-op card.

    I think this particularly epitomized the necessity of the increased welfare state for the modern age, regardless of UBI etc:

    I think the individuals got to look at say: Here’s what I think I’m good at. Here’s where the market’s going. And here’s the skills I need. And then, you know, I think government should—personally, my point of view—pay for some of this. And it’s not once and done. It may be every few years. I understand college interns now are expected to come in for summer internships with the skills they need for that internship.
    Now apply that in a UK context where adult and further education costs saddle you with significant debt, which is already a huge issue for the country, the state is going to have to step in- and that's where i think Labour hit it spot on with the concept of a National Education Service- cradle to grave free education for all citizens. The private sector either will under-equip as their run for profit (as we've seen with the failure of private academies in the UK) or will exacerbate the private debt crisis. There's no viable option beyond the state stepping in and doing its job which is to safeguard its citizens- here through the provision of education as and when necessary to stay employed somewhere.
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  5. #65

    Default Re: No longer an impossability -- Cobryn becoming prime minister

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    It's an amazing game. Seriously, try it.
    Alright. Though it's from Paradox, they make great games and I haven't even started playing EU4 yet, despite getting it a year ago. I guess the historical timeframe counts; I might be less into futuristic stuff too.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Terminator? it's an imbecilic film.
    Booooo.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    I recommend Bicentennial Man,based on the well-known novella of the same name by Isaac Asimov. A wonderful film. Can a robot gain all the rights of humanity?I don't want to spoil the movie...
    I watched it a few years ago, it's an alright movie. I guess you are more an optimist while I'm a pessimist. Nothing wrong with either.

  6. #66
    Dante Von Hespburg's Avatar Sloth's Inferno
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    Default Re: No longer an impossability -- Cobryn becoming prime minister

    Just to perhaps frame the bigger picture of the current UK issues and why the Conservatives are being rightfully lambasted by their inaction and/or mismanagement (depending on how nice we want to be).

    So the original telegraph article:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...-490bn-poorer/

    And others:
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a8002871.html

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politic...er-brexit-vote (I

    The ONS made a mistake, the UK is not in a 'wealth surplus' in fact we're in deficit, with 'no foreign reserves'.

    Britain is £490billion poorer than thought and no longer has any reserve of net foreign assets to help protect against any damage to the economy from Brexit.The revision to the national accounts in the ONS’s so-called Blue Book means that the UK’s net international investment position has collapsed from a surplus of £469bn to a net deficit of £22bn - equivalent to a quarter of GDP.
    The revised figures show the country owns far fewer international assets and owes far more to foreign investors than previously thought.
    This isn't just brexit and its mismanagement, its more i would argue something that is more the Conservative current economics being fubar- but the Conservative brexit isn't helping things when the UK is at a point of such weakness- its suspected that this is partly why May has gone into panic mode- calling Merkel begging for her intervention and flying over for dinner with Junker and Barnier. The fact is as the new statesmen points out, all the things that the far-right brexiteering Tories said- increased exports, increased foreign investment, a drop in the pound is good etc is total rubbish- none of it proved true.

    I quite enjoy Tax Research UK's articles on economic subjects (strangely i know), so here's there take.
    http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2...has-done-awol/

    Now its not technically disastrous in itself-... we're still stuck with the same old issues remaining unaddressed, the same economic weaknesses and here's why its relevant, because Labour at least are offering a change from current, and frankly we don't exactly have a lot to lose now. This reported weakness in UK exports and investment despite the lower price of sterling, combined with the alternate market of the US going into 'full protectionist' mode does not speak well for the Conservative vision of a right-wing traditional brexit (on top of all the other idiocies that plan had). On top of this no foreign reserves to act as a buffer to shore up post-brexit jitters particularly in the case of 'no deal' is insane- 'no deal' is in effect no longer a viable political option for the Conservatives and i feel this will be used to plug that home against Boris and co. Add to this that the price of goods is up 3% on last year (that arguably is something due to brexit as the weakened pound basically makes the UK's import economy more expensive) and the fact that exports haven't increased, but have fallen (even with a weaker pound) the same for investment (Because there is no confidence and the UK is not an attractive prospect in such political upheaval)- this is the time for the Tories to get their head out of their arses and actually follow the state directed investment needed to pick up the slack, restore investor faith and actually get the economy going again- ten years of failed austerity measures that have increased the UK's economic issues has to end. This is why even a term of Labour would be good, because politically for the Tories to ditch austerity and admit they ed up is impossible.

    It indeed seems that the Confederation of British Industry is backing Labours economic policies by telling the Chancellor in the upcoming budget to take Corbyn's line in essence and ditch austerity in favour of actual state directed investment, particularly as the private sector has failed to invest properly in the UK (They say since brexit, i would argue far far longer in real-terms due to various failings in regulation and how privitization in the UK is dealt with).

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/it-s-time...et-submission/
    Last edited by Dante Von Hespburg; October 17, 2017 at 03:45 AM.
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