Kurdistan Independence Referendum

[NorseThing]

I would be wary of using the word 'right' involving anything about what people have a 'right' for representation when it comes to slicing and dicing a country up. The advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice does not make anything 'legal'. As to Sudan -- this proves my point why slicing and dicing is a process to be wary of. The Sudan situation is not really more settled now than before the separation. The Kurdistan 'referendum' is simply another attempt for a faction to get it's way by some means other than working within the larger nation. Rights will be lessened if this is successful. The chaos that exists will be made worse and not better.

[tgoodenow]

By what right do countries hold unrepresented groups under heel? The disenfranchisement of the Kurdish people is little different than the subjugation during colonialism era.

[hellheaven1987]

but if all neighbouring countries cut off the oil trade they will die off, doesnt matter how much support they get from those countries.

Yes, except their neighbours do not like eachothers too.

[Tureuki]

They all agree on this matter though.

[Nebaki]

The last 48h now are very important and very dangerous for Turkey which can led to internal unrest.

[ioannis76]

but if all neighbouring countries cut off the oil trade they will die off, doesnt matter how much support they get from those countries.

They would, but why would neighboring countries want to do that? There's money to be made off being a transit country for oil. Money talks, politics walks.

[Tureuki]

For Turkey this is an issue way more important than money. Thats a fact.

Iraq literally loses their own oil, if they were so eager to let those usurpers sell their own oil through their lands, they would do that and KRG would not apply to Turkey in the first place. Iraq has plenty of oil and gas in the areas they control anyway, they do not need KRG's stuff. Same for Iran, not only they got their own oil and gas, they also have no one to sell KRG's stuff, geographically unfit, plus they are allied with Iraqi government and KRG poses a threat through their own Kurdish minority. Zero reason to establish any friendly relationship with KRG.

[Nebaki]

Let´s hope that Erdogan&Co. will not betray Iran in this case, otherwise when the things turn around the damage that will came towards to Turkey will be huge.

[Yayattasa]

Iran started some wargames on their side of the frontier today and halted all flights to KRG.

[Nebaki]

I don´think that Barzani is so stupid to hold an Kurdistan Independence Referendum without any support atleast one of the Regional Powers on his Borders.

If we just look at the past then Turkey has always supported him with any difficulties that he has faced - in exchange Turkey has build some Military Bases and got Oil and other economic cooperation.

Actually this seems be more an Secret War between Turkey and Iran then a Independence Referendum.

[hellheaven1987]

Let´s hope that Erdogan&Co. will not betray Iran in this case, otherwise when the things turn around the damage that will came towards to Turkey will be huge.

Well buddy, I have bad news for you in Syria...

[Nebaki]

Well buddy, I have bad news for you in Syria...

Those are?

[dogukan]

Alright, why should we care about the interests of a tribal oligarchy, then? The referendum is a clear political manœuvre from Barzani to boost his popularity, before the upcoming elections in November, in order to remain in power, which he holds unconstitutionally since 2015, after having silenced the Iraqi Kurdish Parliament. The entire affair is a typical case of a tribal elite manipulating the nationalist feelings of the people for their personal gain, so I'm really perplexed that you support Barzani's initiative.

Because it is an opening.
It isn't just the interests of a tribal elite. It means a ton to the Kurdish people and for their struggle for official recognition. It is a REFERANDUM btw. You realize that?

Barzani won't be forever. That free kurdistan might one day be won by another political movement. Barzani's legitimacy is a long term tool for what might come afterwards. If PKK was to hold this referandum, Turkey would haven't left a stone in the region. When Barzani does it.....oh man, you should see the dissapointment of the Turkish Kurds that voted for AKP. Do you realize how much material we are getting for the next election? The only political movement that the growing Kurdish demography was about to accept has betrayed them deeply. This is a would that won't close trust me.
And for agitators like us, its a huge opportunity.

Even from the perspective of YPG, PKK or HDP, such a move will only benefit the reactionary elements of Kurdistan, which will present themselves as the defendants of freedom, to the expense of the social-democratic wing, which managed to expel the Salafists, when Peshmerga was fleeing. Meanwhile, all this is happening when ISIL is still occupying parts of Iraq, while the Iraqi Kurdish economy is in a very precarious position.

We got the Kurdish youth. The old will die off.

How exactly? I have already sourced the violence the Assyrians, Turkmens, Yazidis and Arabs have suffered from the Erbil authorities, so I think it is obvious the interests of Barzani's regime and those of the minorities definitely collide. Again, I still don't understand why Erbil is compared so favourably with Damascus, Baghdad, Ankara or Tehran. It's also a state marked by authoritarianism, corruption, mismanagement and initial disasters when facing jihadists, which led directly to the genocide of Yazidis in Sinjar.

I am not denying that KRG is as corrupt as it gets, but I am not sure you understand the identity crisis of the Kurds. These people have been seen as the lowest caste of the region for decades. The very people that went through horrible times in all 4 countries are still alive.
This election will send shockwaves among the Kurdish populations in the region and will start an irreversible national awakening.

If it is smashed? Again, it is a win as Kurds will build a legacy towards their national awakening.
The whole process in Turkey where AKP is losing Kurds to extreme extends is just...mmmm, I don't know how to tell you how great an opportunity this is to rally the "backwards" elements of the Kurdish society.
They have seen that when push comes the shove, the Turkish state is not their ally.

-----------------------

And for whatever happens tomorrow, here comes one of my favorite songs of Ciwan Haco sang by Xece. I wish the Kurds good luck:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXVcGn0L_6E

[Abdülmecid I]

It isn't just the interests of a tribal elite. It means a ton to the Kurdish people and for their struggle for official recognition. It is a REFERANDUM btw. You realize that?

A referendum doesn't necessarily promote the interests of the participants. Historically, popular will has been very easily manipulated, by emotional appeal to traditional and reactionary concepts, such as nationalism, a condition that by definition matches perfectly with an independence referendum. From a Marxist perspective, the proliferation of random nation-statelets contradicts the fundamental concept of internationalism. Based on that, a referendum conducted by an authoritarian, ultra-conservative, tribal oligarchy seems like the perfect example of exploiting the people's maybe legitimate concerns for personal profit, ultimately against the voters themselves.

Barzani won't be forever. That free kurdistan might one day be won by another political movement. Barzani's legitimacy is a long term tool for what might come afterwards. If PKK was to hold this referandum, Turkey would haven't left a stone in the region. When Barzani does it.....oh man, you should see the dissapointment of the Turkish Kurds that voted for AKP. Do you realize how much material we are getting for the next election? The only political movement that the growing Kurdish demography was about to accept has betrayed them deeply. This is a would that won't close trust me. And for agitators like us, its a huge opportunity.

Well, I suspect that Barzani totally agrees that this referendum is a huge opportunity for saving his fragile popularity and political power and is also equally optimist of managing to use leftist nationalists (very paradoxical description, but I can't find anything more accurate) for his own benefit. Predictions about which faction will eventually prevail would be nothing but assumptions and wishful thinking, so I don't understand your certainty and enthusiasm. In my opinion, Barzani and his allies are much likelier winners, but still a skeptical approach would be the best. I don't see though how Kurdish Muslims abandoning an Islamist party (AKP) and joining a social-democratic one (HDP) would contribute to the struggle of PKK and YPG. Such a membership would simply strengthen the already augmenting moderate tendency inside it, turning it more quickly into a Kurdish nationalist party, with perhaps a radical position on ecology local autonomy, favouring the faction of Barzani and not of Rojava.

We got the Kurdish youth. The old will die off.

?! Come on, we both know that political affiliation is mainly determined by social class, personal wealth and upbringing, not age. Even if the sentimental youth is less compromising than the elder, they will inevitably grow up, too, so the future domination of social-democracy is not guaranteed only by its unsurprising bigger popularity among the younger. Hippies did integrate themselves very well in the establishment they once so strongly despised. On the other hand, the dangerous initiative of the independence referendum adopted by the Barzani regime is carefully designed to target the emotions of the youth, in order to reverse the momentum of the increasing trendiness of the Rojava model.

[Admiral Piett]

A referendum doesn't necessarily promote the interests of the participants. Historically, popular will has been very easily manipulated, by emotional appeal to traditional and reactionary concepts, such as nationalism, a condition that by definition matches perfectly with an independence referendum. From a Marxist perspective, the proliferation of random nation-statelets contradicts the fundamental concept of internationalism. Based on that, a referendum conducted by an authoritarian, ultra-conservative, tribal oligarchy seems like the perfect example of exploiting the people's maybe legitimate concerns for personal profit, ultimately against the voters themselves.

Well, I suspect that Barzani totally agrees that this referendum is a huge opportunity for saving his fragile popularity and political power and is also equally optimist of managing to use leftist nationalists (very paradoxical description, but I can't find anything more accurate) for his own benefit. Predictions about which faction will eventually prevail would be nothing but assumptions and wishful thinking, so I don't understand your certainty and enthusiasm. In my opinion, Barzani and his allies are much likelier winners, but still a skeptical approach would be the best. I don't see though how Kurdish Muslims abandoning an Islamist party (AKP) and joining a social-democratic one (HDP) would contribute to the struggle of PKK and YPG. Such a membership would simply strengthen the already augmenting moderate tendency inside it, turning it more quickly into a Kurdish nationalist party, with perhaps a radical position on ecology local autonomy, favouring the faction of Barzani and not of Rojava.

?! Come on, we both know that political affiliation is mainly determined by social class, personal wealth and upbringing, not age. Even if the sentimental youth is less compromising than the elder, they will inevitably grow up, too, so the future domination of social-democracy is not guaranteed only by its unsurprising bigger popularity among the younger. Hippies did integrate themselves very well in the establishment they once so strongly despised. On the other hand, the dangerous initiative of the independence referendum adopted by the Barzani regime is carefully designed to target the emotions of the youth, in order to reverse the momentum of the increasing trendiness of the Rojava model.

You cannot assume to know what the interests of the Kurdish people are with entirely different interests from yours. Anymore than mine. You have a nation with insitutions that represent their interests. The Kurds of Turkey and Iraq do not and never had that. So do not think that your views and mindset can be indicative of the majority of Kurds, especially those that fought a war of literal survival against the Islamic State. Something your state likely never partook in. Imagine your entire ethnic group, language, or way of life had no representation and was hated by all the nations in the region. On top of that, imagine your fathers, mothers, and grandparents and uncles were gassed by a leader of your country. That's the Kurds of Iraq.

[Nebaki]

especially those that fought a war of literal survival against the Islamic State.

Which of those had really fight against the Islamic State? Did you mean that ones that first cryed and then grabbed in Syria Land after the Islamic State retreated to combine his own forces against Assad?

There was not a single notable fight between the Kurds and the Islamic State, without any support of USA which even sended his own Soldiers to the ground they would not hold any one City against the Islamic State.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

There was not a single notable fight between the Kurds and the Islamic State, without any support of USA which even sended his own Soldiers to the ground they would not hold any one City against the Islamic State.

That's bull. Siege of Kobani and battle of Raqqa, which isn't yet finished were both bigger and each caused more casualties to IS than the entire Turkish offensive in northern Syria did, and the Manbij offensive was a little smaller, but still ended with the conquest of Manbij, a town significantly bigger than any captured in the Turkish offensive (50% bigger than Al-Bab itself).
Those battles and campaigns also killed a lot more IS fighters than any of the SAA campaigns did. The 2017 battle of Palmyra, for example, ended with just 283 KIA on IS's side, less than the SDF led battle for Tabqa.
Infact, the 3 year siege of Deir-ez-zour inflicted on IS only 200-600 more KIA than the 3 month long battle of Raqqa.
SDF has killed more IS in battle than any other faction in Syria.

The argument about air-strikes and foreign support holds little ground when you consider that without support from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah Syria would have fallen a few years ago.

[Muizer]

I'd be inclined to say that if any of the countries fearing for their territorial integrity ever had any moral right to impose it on the Kurds they have quite lost it by now. I'm usually suspect of separatism, as it's often largely based on atavistic nationalistic BS, but under the present circumstances I find it really hard to say "sorry Kurds, but you're wantonly destabilizing the lovely democratic, peaceful harmony guaranteed by Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran.

[Vanoi]

Arguably the YPG had done more than anyone to beat back the IS. Siege of Kobani, stopping the IS offensive in Hashaka, taking Tell Abyad, the main entry point for IS fighters going to Syria and Iraq, Manbij, Raqqa, Tabaq, and the list goes on. The KRG have helped too, but honestly the Iraqi Army has done more.

[ioannis76]

Historically, popular will has been very easily manipulated, by emotional appeal to traditional and reactionary concepts, such as nationalism, a condition that by definition matches perfectly with an independence referendum. From a Marxist perspective, the proliferation of random nation-statelets contradicts the fundamental concept of internationalism. Based on that, a referendum conducted by an authoritarian, ultra-conservative, tribal oligarchy seems like the perfect example of exploiting the people's maybe legitimate concerns for personal profit, ultimately against the voters themselves.

lol, interesting perspective. authoritarian and ultra conservative as compared to what? A state that uses chemical weapons on its own citizens? (Iraq). Or maybe a state that uses its army to eradicate their villages? (Turkey). From a Marxist perspective, how does that fare?

nationalism

Define nationalism. Is the desire to not have one's village burned to the ground or have chemical weapons used on one's family nationalism? Because if that's the case, then yes, I guess you can call the whole referendum concept nationalist.

turning it more quickly into a Kurdish nationalist party

Again, define nationalism. Is the desire to identify oneself as a Kurd, without suffering any consequences nationalism? Is the desire to have one's children learn the Kurdish language at school nationalism? And if so, is this flavour of "nationalism" bad? I think not. Interesting way of trying to twist things around, though.