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Thread: Kurdistan Independence Referendum

  1. #181

    Default Re: Kurdistan Independence Referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by Admiral Piett View Post
    Breaking: Hashd al-Shaab, an Iranian backed militia of Shia Iraqi origin (accused of warcrimes in the war against ISIS), has launched the first blow against Kurdish forces near Taza. Four raids so far have been repelled.
    Hashd al-Shaabi is not a militia, but the entirety of the militias (known as Popular Mobilization Units) controlled by the Iraqi government, whose forces also include several thousands of Sunnis. Some elements belonging to them have indeed been blamed for abuses against civilians, but we don't even know whether these accused groups are participating in the current operation. According to most reports, the majority of Peshmerga soldiers (mainly coming from PUK, which has endorsed a more conciliatory attitude and is opposed to Barzani's authoritarian regime) have withdrawn from their positions around Kirkuk, which they surrendered to the Iraqi Army without a fight. Some sporadic clashes have been mentioned, mainly in Turkmeni neighborhoods, but also in various streets of Kirkuk. It's probably the result of confusion and chaos, rather than an organised resistance from the Kurdish. Most probably, it is assumed that a deal had been agreed between Baghdad and at least PUK, but not every fighter had been informed, either due to leadership failures or because the commanders were afraid of their soldiers reacting negatively to such an initiative.

    It's not certain yet if the zone of control of Iraq will be expanded over the city, too, or it will simply be limited to the oilfields and the military base located in the suburbs. Normally, I would have guessed the latter, but according to several tweets from the most trustworthy and objective correspondents, several shootings and high tensions have been noticed inside Kirkuk. Perhaps, it's the consequence of discipline and law collapsing in Kirkuk and PKK terrorists replacing the "regular army" in the defense. I suppose that all relevant foreign powers had been informed before. For what it matters, America's cold response to the unilateral provocations of Barzani had already been made crystal clear, when the payment of Peshmerga's salaries was denied. Generally, I remain rather optimist, as most sides seem to have adopted the most rational and mature approach, but the danger of the situation deteriorating rapidly remains. It's too early, unfortunately, to rely on something more concrete and convincing than online videos or images.

  2. #182

    Default Re: Kurdistan Independence Referendum

    Does the PUK peshmergas really flee via an agreement with the government or they are just forced to do so? I mean what they expect from such deal? They will be declared traitors by most Iraqi Kurds, probably become targets of attacks.

    More reports of fleeings is coming. Tuz Khurmatu is said to be fully taken. They left Qara Tappah. Kifri might be taken(not confirmed). Saw a report about them burning down their own hq and flee in Daquq area. Government has almost reached Erbil-Kirkuk main road if the reports about capture of air base north west of Kirkuk is legit.
    Last edited by Tureuki; Today at 06:01 AM.

  3. #183
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    Default Re: Kurdistan Independence Referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by athanaric View Post
    Well, my stance is that Kurdish independence makes sense whereas Catalan independence doesn't. The Kurds have ten times the numbers of the Catalans, as well as more territory, and, as you've detailed yourself, a recent history of extremely violent persecution (very much unlike Catalonia...). Even if only the Iraqi portion of Kurdistan were to materialize as independent, it would still be bigger than Catalonia.
    I would like to claim this opportunity to agree with athanaric. We usually are on opposing sides, but here i see truth. I say let them have a country. They fought ISIS - they earned it.

  4. #184

    Default Re: Kurdistan Independence Referendum

    Iraqi government probably thinks the same ; take back Kirkuk and Nineveh then let them have their country on leftovers.

    Edit: I cant believe I previously said that Iraqi government could not take Kirkuk. They took it in less than a day lol.
    Last edited by Tureuki; Today at 09:12 AM.

  5. #185
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    Default Re: ISIL War in Iraq and Syria II

    Kirkuk has fallen almost without a battle in the hands of Baghdad. US denies to condemn this attack which is rather ominous for Kurds

  6. #186

    Default Re: Kurdistan Independence Referendum

    Uhm, no?
    http://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/151020177

    fighting is now going on, south of Kirkuk.
    Iraq did not capture anything by force, they just negotiated the removal of some kurdish forces which belonged to the kurdish opposition. This definitely weakens PUK and bands people under Barzani.
    And as for the US:
    US Senator McCain warns of ‘severe consequences’ for ‘misuse’ of American arms against Kurds
    Last edited by ioannis76; Today at 10:57 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Abdülmecid I View Post
    despite any possible revisionist dreams and nationalist prophecies to the contrary, the Kurdish referendum in Iraq and YPG's domination in Syria can hardly affect the fate of Turkish Kurdistan, whose majority doesn't even aspire to independence (only 23%, 33% for autonomy, 31% for democratic reforms inside Turkey). Perfectly understandable, considering how poor their landlocked, arid and mountainous homeland is and the massive immigration of young Kurds to Turkish cities, where they form communities similar to the disenfranchised proletariat of the French suburbs.
    The depopulation of Kurdish villages is euphemised as "internal immigration": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdis...ated_by_Turkey

  7. #187

    Default Re: Kurdistan Independence Referendum

    Nope, city is entirely taken. Last reported clash was few hours ago, outside of the city, near Mulla Abdullah. Dont know if it still continues.

    KRG shows no sign of military response. They are purely focused on "Iranian backed militias" propaganda. They want to get US involved.

    https://twitter.com/DefenseBaron/sta...51778631864320

    https://twitter.com/DefenseBaron/sta...50948075819009

    https://twitter.com/DefenseBaron/sta...51170881359872

    https://twitter.com/DefenseBaron/sta...51555029340160

    US military intervention seems unlikely though. Time to put themselves as human shields has passed anyway. They could only do that before attack on Kirkuk has started.

  8. #188
    Anna_Gein's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Kurdistan Independence Referendum

    That was quick :

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



    Quote Originally Posted by ioannis76 View Post
    And as for the US:
    It has been a while since McCain lost all semblance of influence on US policy.
    Last edited by Anna_Gein; Today at 11:46 AM.

  9. #189

    Default Re: Kurdistan Independence Referendum

    Rudaw is not taken seriously even by Kurdish nationalists. Anyway, even the channel of Nechirvan Barzani admitted, using the obligatorily romantic vocabulary, that Kirkuk is currently under the control of the Iraqi Army. Meanwhile, there are many rumours that the operations of the Iraqis will involve the rest of the disputed areas, like Sinjar and the portion of the Nineveh Plains held by the Kurdish, where many ethnic and religious minorities disapprove of Kurdistan's independence. Hopefully, the same scenario will be repeated also in these regions, which were officially under the authority of the Iraqi government, before the emergence of ISIL and the land-grabbing that followed, without much bloodshed. I doubt that PKK will however retreat very easily, although its members quickly abandoned Kirkuk according to several sources (some of them a bit controversial though, so take it with a pinch of salt), when it became evident that resistance would be stupid, because they have integrated themselves better in the local population and are somewhat less dependent on foreign pressure. By the way, the American embassy in Baghdad has already stated that it supports the imposition of the federal law in the disputed provinces of Northern Iraq, which essentially means the redrawing of the borders as they were before the summer of 2014. I guess that the United States will refrain from actively intervening in the conflict, unless one side decides to escalate unilateral, an action that would probably prompt Washington to take financial measures against the offenders.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tureuki View Post
    Edit: I cant believe I previously said that Iraqi government could not take Kirkuk. They took it in less than a day lol.
    I didn't expect such a quick surrender either. Of course, everyone rather familiar with Middle Eastern affairs knew that the claims about the martial prowess of the Peshmerga militia was just propaganda coming from the usual suspects, but such a peaceful occupation is still weird, which is why I believe that a deal had taken place. However, I suppose that the prospect of military threat, because the superiority of the Iraqi Army in a conventional battle is undeniable, was also included in the negotiations or otherwise Peshmerga wouldn't have performed such an embarrassing withdrawal. Twitter is full of Arabs laughing at the hypocrisy of warlords and governors who boasted of defending Kirkuk until the end, but managed to abandon their posts at the first sight of an explosion.

  10. #190
    dogukan's Avatar Tribunus
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    Default Re: Kurdistan Independence Referendum

    Peshmerga is an old rotten divided and corrupt organization. They are literally old family people.

    The whole reason they were boasted so much wad because westerners cannot distinguish between kurdish factions in the middle east.


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    "Therefore I am not in favour of raising any dogmatic banner. On the contrary, we must try to help the dogmatists to clarify their propositions for themselves. Thus, communism, in particular, is a dogmatic abstraction; in which connection, however, I am not thinking of some imaginary and possible communism, but actually existing communism as taught by Cabet, Dézamy, Weitling, etc. This communism is itself only a special expression of the humanistic principle, an expression which is still infected by its antithesis – the private system. Hence the abolition of private property and communism are by no means identical, and it is not accidental but inevitable that communism has seen other socialist doctrines – such as those of Fourier, Proudhon, etc. – arising to confront it because it is itself only a special, one-sided realisation of the socialist principle."
    Marx to A.Ruge

  11. #191

    Default Re: Kurdistan Independence Referendum

    I dunno, Iraq does not have such a good reputation for putting up fights. We'll see.
    Quote Originally Posted by Abdülmecid I View Post
    despite any possible revisionist dreams and nationalist prophecies to the contrary, the Kurdish referendum in Iraq and YPG's domination in Syria can hardly affect the fate of Turkish Kurdistan, whose majority doesn't even aspire to independence (only 23%, 33% for autonomy, 31% for democratic reforms inside Turkey). Perfectly understandable, considering how poor their landlocked, arid and mountainous homeland is and the massive immigration of young Kurds to Turkish cities, where they form communities similar to the disenfranchised proletariat of the French suburbs.
    The depopulation of Kurdish villages is euphemised as "internal immigration": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdis...ated_by_Turkey

  12. #192
    dogukan's Avatar Tribunus
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    Default Re: Kurdistan Independence Referendum

    Current Iraqi army is not the one 5 years ago. These are battle-hardened troops supported by ideological militias.
    5 years ago when peshmerga stopped ISIS in Mosul and Kirkuk they were in a relatively better shape.

    Regardless of the intent or the "inside factors" of the political establishment in KRG, this was a huge humiliation. I still think everyone is better off by keeping Kirkuk intact and not starting a huge and bloody hostility with this iraq.
    Furthermore, USA wants Abadi to win to not lose what remains of Iraq to Iran.
    PUK and KDP are the losers of the day, but perhaps the biggest loser is Barzani because this will be his legacy.

    Kurds of Kirkuk will still be there and referandum results are still there. I think this will be an opportunity for the PKK in Iraq where they had been tradtionally weak as Kurds will become seriously disillusioned with the establishment after today.
    Barzani's power play to establish his authority will cost him a lot more in his legitimacy.

    While this is the mathematics of the situation if you will, this is the middle east and there are a ton more variables that can refute my claims.
    "Therefore I am not in favour of raising any dogmatic banner. On the contrary, we must try to help the dogmatists to clarify their propositions for themselves. Thus, communism, in particular, is a dogmatic abstraction; in which connection, however, I am not thinking of some imaginary and possible communism, but actually existing communism as taught by Cabet, Dézamy, Weitling, etc. This communism is itself only a special expression of the humanistic principle, an expression which is still infected by its antithesis – the private system. Hence the abolition of private property and communism are by no means identical, and it is not accidental but inevitable that communism has seen other socialist doctrines – such as those of Fourier, Proudhon, etc. – arising to confront it because it is itself only a special, one-sided realisation of the socialist principle."
    Marx to A.Ruge

  13. #193
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    Default Re: Kurdistan Independence Referendum

    I still believe that there was no fight for Kirkuk rather a retreat by the Kurds. The question is what will happen if Baghdad tries to invade the official autonomous Kurdish areas

  14. #194
    dogukan's Avatar Tribunus
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    Default Re: Kurdistan Independence Referendum

    Why would they do that?

    If they are to take it to the next level, they'd go for Shingal and surroundings of Mosul.
    "Therefore I am not in favour of raising any dogmatic banner. On the contrary, we must try to help the dogmatists to clarify their propositions for themselves. Thus, communism, in particular, is a dogmatic abstraction; in which connection, however, I am not thinking of some imaginary and possible communism, but actually existing communism as taught by Cabet, Dézamy, Weitling, etc. This communism is itself only a special expression of the humanistic principle, an expression which is still infected by its antithesis – the private system. Hence the abolition of private property and communism are by no means identical, and it is not accidental but inevitable that communism has seen other socialist doctrines – such as those of Fourier, Proudhon, etc. – arising to confront it because it is itself only a special, one-sided realisation of the socialist principle."
    Marx to A.Ruge

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