The messages and stated intentions in recent weeks and months are central to understanding what these territorial losses mean for ISIS.
A comparison of the group’s propaganda over the past two years suggests a shift in tone and rhetoric. Spokesperson Abu Mohammed al-Adnani recently stressed that the
losses of strategic cities, such as Raqqa and Mosul, does not mean the end for ISIS. In May 2016, al-Adnani called on supporters worldwide to carry out lone wolf attacks on civilians during the month of Ramadan, with an emphasis on Europe and the United States.
Dabiq, the English speaking ISIS magazine, has also called for retaliatory attacks in response to U.S.-led coalition attacks in Syria and Iraq. This rhetoric is different compared to earlier propaganda from 2014 and 2015, when emphasis lay on the importance of capturing and holding territory in Iraq and Syria and of establishing the Caliphate.
Terrorist attacks in Brussels, Paris, Istanbul, Baghdad, and Orlando by ISIS operatives and supporters indicate that it is resorting to this type of strategy to compensate for territorial losses. Retribution in the form of attacks on soft targets and civilians is an
attempt by ISIS leadership to convince its passive and active supporters, as well as its enemies, that the group is resilient and has the resolve to continue the fight despite current setbacks. Terrorist attacks can also restore perceived prestige and credibility to ISIS leadership.