AI - The catalyst for the next Great Depression?

[z3n]

Will AI and robotics contribute towards a self imposed Great Depression?

Or will society progress and compensate in time.

[betto]

Tw games ai's will impose a greater and greater depression over time...and no hope for open code or good tools to solve it...

now serious... we are already infantile by tech...we cant wait ,we want what we want now... no wait no comprimises just what we want and how we want... with robotics and good Ai we will become damn worse... if we dont disappear for lack of search for mate having a android 100% real look and feel with any desired appearance and personality ...no i dont think about sex 24h...just pointing thats sex is the last spot that tech will fill and when it does...we are doomed...as a species....

[Iskar]

...or evolution will select those with an innate aversion to technology.

[z3n]

Companies are already replacing entire production lines of workers with just robotics in manufacturing and even lawyers could see significant decreases in very specific areas of workload thanks to AI productivity.

[Ἀπολλόδοτος Α΄ ὁ Σωτήρ]

This was discussed few months ago in this thread.

[z3n]

I was more interested in the economic and financial aspect than the political or job sector part.

[Ἀπολλόδοτος Α΄ ὁ Σωτήρ]

It should provide a significant rise in terms of stock prices and an overall economic boom due to increased production efficiency and decreased manufacturing costs.
A temporary effect because of consumer base being reduced due to automation. A more permanent effect will be greater concentration of capital among fewer entities or individuals due to increase in size of larger, more capable of investing in automation, businesses at the expense of smaller ones.

[Himster]

...or evolution will select those with an innate aversion to technology.

Yeah, selected to be slaves to their cyborg overlords.
The age of transhumanism is upon us, the first immortal has already been born. Rejoice for the time of true Gods will soon be upon us.

[Iskar]

To be frank, the more I dabbled in mathematics the less I understood how our brain does it. Yes, robots/computers are much better at finite calculations and discrete objects, but I don't see how they would cope with continua, infinities, principles of proof, etc. In the end, it might well be the bloody Real Numbers and Goedel's theorems that save us from robot domination.

[Himster]

To be frank, the more I dabbled in mathematics the less I understood how our brain does it. Yes, robots/computers are much better at finite calculations and discrete objects, but I don't see how they would cope with continua, infinities, principles of proof, etc. In the end, it might well be the bloody Real Numbers and Goedel's theorems that save us from robot domination.

Using neurologically controlled prosthetic is among the steps needed to overcome this, not to mention the brain implants that already work.
Theseus' ship and Locke's socks: here we come.

[Magister Militum Flavius Aetius]

In some of the states where they raised the minimum wage to $15 an hour, fast food companies have already experimented with replacing the entire staff with robots, and left two people: a face to take orders and bring food, and a technician in case something breaks.

We could soon see first world societies begin suffering because there are more people than there are jobs.

[John Doe]

It's hardly a new issue: hundreds of thousand people lost their job to washing machine, photocopier or computers.

The pret-a-porter revolution made clothes cheap for everyone, but destroy dressmaking industry.

Similar revolution happened with the mechanisation of agriculture, leading to an exodus of workers from countryside to cities, society adapted to it.

Software already took away a huge amount of direct jobs, but they indirectly created more then was lost.

I can buy can of drink and snacks from vending machines, download a movie instead of renting a DVD from a shop, get my finances sorted without going to the bank, scan my own shopping at the supermarket, wash my car automatically, book holidays online without going to a travel agent, I can have some of my veg and meat bought and delivered directly from a farm, etc.... Don't get me started with mobile phone apps either. I don't see no crises though.

Ai induces doom is over rated, sure some sector of activity will be hard hit, it will depend on how fast the changes happen.

The 2008 financial crisis is blamed on Greenspan keeping interest rate too low for too long and creating huge amount of debt. It was "solved" by lowering rates even further and for longer (go figure!!), printing money and increasing the amount of debt. They are already sign of a bursting bubble in the car leasing business, and trouble in the debt EM market (increase in US federal fund rate due to rising US inflation will make EM debts very difficult to service) . Once again, the next depression will be due to financial mismanagement.

[Himster]

We could soon see first world societies begin suffering because there are more people than there are jobs.

Suffering? Ultimately/ideally there would/should be no jobs that enslave humans. That sounds like an ideal society, everyone would be free to be what matters: artists, dancers, poets, philosophers, writers and creators of beauty. Finally a society that can have real values rather than a shallow and vapid plutocracy.

[ByzantinePowerGame]

In some of the states where they raised the minimum wage to $15 an hour, fast food companies have already experimented with replacing the entire staff with robots, and left two people: a face to take orders and bring food, and a technician in case something breaks.

We could soon see first world societies begin suffering because there are more people than there are jobs.

Yet almost every industrial nation has an open or semi-open borders policy.

The industrial nations should eliminate all provisions for "asylum seekers," "refugees," etc., as categories of acceptable migrants.

While machines are poised to take over almost all aspects of unskilled labor in the next 5-10 years, it makes absolutely no sense to allow millions and millions of unskilled people [who will never have any prospects of gainful employment] enter into the industrial world, a world that is fast becoming automated.

[RedGuard]

Yet almost every industrial nation has an open or semi-open borders policy.

The industrial nations should eliminate all provisions for "asylum seekers," "refugees," etc., as categories of acceptable migrants.

While machines are poised to take over almost all aspects of unskilled labor in the next 5-10 years, it makes absolutely no sense to allow millions and millions of unskilled people [who will never have any prospects of gainful employment] enter into the industrial world, a world that is fast becoming automated.

billion dollar conglomerates own the government,(with backing by trillion dollar banks) the billion dollar conglomerates want lower labor costs therefore the semi-open borders are staying unless there is some communist style takeover of the government.

I dont think that ai will be like we see in movies. I dont think ai will ever have human feelings at least not in the near future. We dont even really understand the brain right now so the idea that we could magically replicate it with wires is absurd at the moment.

However the answer to deal with the short term implications of this depression that is coming on the horizon for the working 99% is obviously a universal wage.

[Gaidin]

Robotics and automation will in turn open up new job opportunities as it gets implemented more and more. Just like, and here's a shocker, industrialization. And Miniaturization. And computation. And many other things. The question is what those opportunities will be as it is used more and more and if people are willing to put the work into the training they need and move if they have to.

AI. Good mystery there. Define it first.

[Ἀπολλόδοτος Α΄ ὁ Σωτήρ]

Robotics and automation will in turn open up new job opportunities as it gets implemented more and more. Just like, and here's a shocker, industrialization. And Miniaturization. And computation. And many other things.

As someone who closely follows technological, and especially developments in engineering, I find this a fairly optimistic view. Eventually any job that doesn't involve scientific or creative thinking will become obsolete. The only "manual" labour that is to remain will be hand-crafted art objects, clothes and luxurious utensils made by high-payed designers and butlers/servants employed by the decadent rich.

The question is what those opportunities will be as it is used more and more and if people are willing to put the work into the training they need and move if they have to.

People working manual labour in most cases retrain for other forms of manual work, often at the same workplace, that work will be replaced with time as well.
People working in services follow the same path, since their work requires human contact and some thinking and creativity they'll require a fairly advanced AI and robotics to replace them, with time that'll occur as well, although never in full extent. Engineers, scientists, artists/entertainers and administrative workers are all that remains. All of these form a small segment of society.

If I was a truck driver strugling with above average learning or lacking creative skills I would found it really hard to retrain to graphics designer or public relations officer. Most jobs I could work at would be either similar, ie. operating a device, or manual work such as construction work all of which will eventually become obsolete.

I could be wrong of course, and a plethora of new jobs such as assistant director for artistic beautification of coffee cups by using solely flower motifs at Starbucks might open to employ former Starbucks baristas who lost their jobs to a holo-interface AI and a machine that fills up the coffee cups. It might seem as a joke but this is a possibility, but I find it hard to imagine there'll be that many new non-manual labour jobs and a lot of people are capable of doing those only.

AI. Good mystery there. Define it first.

For the purpose of this thread I would define it as computer decision-making system required for a particular task, one currently done largely by humans. What does a self-driving vehicle need? - An AI that can decide how to reach its destination based on current traffic conditions and other parameters. Does such an AI exist? - To a extent, it needs more development.

[Gaidin]

As someone who closely follows technological, and especially developments in engineering, I find this a fairly optimistic view. Eventually any job that doesn't involve scientific or creative thinking will become obsolete. The only "manual" labour that is to remain will be hand-crafted art objects, clothes and luxurious utensils made by high-payed designers and butlers/servants employed by the decadent rich.

It's happened literally every time a massive overhaul in the system has happened in history. Picture what would've happened at industrialization if new opportunities hadn't presented themselves. How about mass manufacturing. How about wireless communications. The job styles change. What the workers do change. If the workers don't adapt, they'll get thrown out on their ass. Not my problem.

For the purpose of this thread I would define it as computer decision-making system required for a particular task, one currently done largely by humans. What does a self-driving vehicle need? - An AI that can decide how to reach its destination based on current traffic conditions and other parameters. Does such an AI exist? - To a extent, it needs more development.

That's not AI. That's a focused system automation. In the case of what you're describing, automated driving. Literally an algorithm defines how it's run. An AI doesn't run the system with it's own independent decision making process. It was a system Uber couldn't safely get off the ground and took it off the roads.

[z3n]

That's not AI. That's a focused system automation. In the case of what you're describing, automated driving. Literally an algorithm defines how it's run. An AI doesn't run the system with it's own independent decision making process. It was a system Uber couldn't safely get off the ground and took it off the roads.

At my school in the AI class I took, the official stance is that anything that was previously took a human mind to do but can be automated is considered AI.

The problem with defining it in other ways is that an AI in essence is an algorithm (a way of solving a problem), thus far it is always programmatically constructed and in the foreseeable future will always be programmatically constructed whether reliant on self-maintainable and updating code or otherwise.

[Ἀπολλόδοτος Α΄ ὁ Σωτήρ]

It's happened literally every time a massive overhaul in the system has happened in history. Picture what would've happened at industrialization if new opportunities hadn't presented themselves. How about mass manufacturing. How about wireless communications. The job styles change. What the workers do change.

True, throughout history mankind adapts, however repetition must cease eventually. Most low-skill jobs require tools, when tool becomes capable of replacing its operator then there's an option of changing jobs. Since no machine can, at least safely and effectively, replace any vehicle operating, construction, loading/unloading, retail and waiting service jobs, workers can retrain for other jobs. By the end of this century machines should be advanced enough for this replacement to occur.

If the workers don't adapt, they'll get thrown out on their ass. Not my problem.

I never implied it's anyones problem in particular, only that it will happen.

That's not AI. That's a focused system automation. In the case of what you're describing, automated driving. Literally an algorithm defines how it's run. An AI doesn't run the system with it's own independent decision making process. It was a system Uber couldn't safely get off the ground and took it off the roads.

You got me there on semantics... It's true that what I've described as AI isn't a system utilized by a self-aware and self-motivated entity capable of learning and metacognition, however I don't find such AI particularly relevant for this thread because one doesn't need it for most, if not all, manual labour and even large segment of service jobs.