ISIL War in Iraq and Syria II

[FireElemental]

TFSA captured Al-Bab. I guess Manbij and Afrin are next.

[Nikitn]

Apparently the US led coalition are now killing more civilians than Russia.

What's the opinion on this study by any resident US militarists? Is it disingenuous since the US is leveling two countries as opposed to just one for Russia? Is the scale and complexity of the US air war greater than the Russian one, leading to a higher civilian toll?

https://airwars.org/news/for-the-fir...s-than-russia/

What makes you think the statistics behind this "study" aren't based on completely unverified data (that's probably invented by the guy running "SOHR")? As they say, if you put garbage in, you get garbage out...

[Copperknickers II]

TFSA captured Al-Bab. I guess Manbij and Afrin are next.

The primary mission of Euphrates Shield was to prevent the unification of Rojava with SDF forces in Efrin cutting off Turkey from Assad regime territory, and to steal their glory in the fight against IS. It wasn't to start a war with the Kurds. It's pretty much finished now, I imagine once they've cleaned up Tadif they'll be breaking out the beers and going home to celebrate a job well done. Of course who knows what will happen after Raqqa is captured, but I don't think immediate action against Manbij is likely. Although on the other hand the Turks have been sabre rattling about clearing Manbij of Kurdish forces for a while, but I think that was the plan from before, when the Turks were supposed to carry out the main assault on Raqqa and had been threatening to attack Assad as well. That plan has been abandoned within the last couple of months, and it seems the Turks have been persuaded to quiet things down after the current round of operations around Al-Bab has been completed. I don't know of any threats against Manbij more recently than December, correct me if I'm wrong.

[Condottiere 40K]

I think the Turks will get to have a go at Raqqa, in order to placate them.

Of course, once they get bogged down, who will bail them out?

[Love Mountain]

What makes you think the statistics behind this "study" aren't based on completely unverified data (that's probably invented by the guy running "SOHR")? As they say, if you put garbage in, you get garbage out...

Their methodology is on their website and their data specifically says whether it's a "fair" or "weak" estimate as well as pointing out the actual confirmed deaths.

[Copperknickers II]

I think the Turks will get to have a go at Raqqa, in order to placate them.

Of course, once they get bogged down, who will bail them out?

Tbh I think Raqqa is not going to be as difficult a fight as was suspected. It will be rigged to the gills with mines and bombs and there will be a welcoming committee which will dig in hard and surround themselves with human shields. But the main command centre, and presumably al-Baghdadi along with it, has already been moved to Al Qa'im and I think that is where the final showdown will take place. Perhaps they're banking on the fact that by buying themselves more time they can perhaps try to precipitate conflict between Assad, the Turks and the Kurds. Or at least that most of those won't be willing to cross the Iraqi border to chase after them, and so they will only really have to defend themselves from one direction- the Iraqi forces coming up the Euphrates. It is unlikely to be Deir Ez-Zor since there is a major SAA exclave which controls half of the city, and besides the SAA are on the cusp of retaking Palmyra so they could then mount a pincer attack up the M20 road from Palmyra to Deir Ez-Zor once Raqqa is taken.

[Nikitn]

Their methodology is on their website and their data specifically says whether it's a "fair" or "weak" estimate as well as pointing out the actual confirmed deaths.

Oh, you mean they aggregated all the "data" from the Syrian "rebel" twitter accounts? Hey, by the way, did anyone ever figure out where the 30 "last children's hospital of Aleppo" were?

[The Gurkhan]

Are you rustled because the website also bad mouths the Motherland as well as Uncle Sam?

[Love Mountain]

Oh, you mean they aggregated all the "data" from the Syrian "rebel" twitter accounts? Hey, by the way, did anyone ever figure out where the 30 "last children's hospital of Aleppo" were?

I'm sorry, should I be angry that someone specifically pointed out what numbers are "guesses" and what numbers are "confirmed"? The cool thing about data is that it can be interpreted in whichever way you want since it takes out the context. The thing about being a cynic is that it's self imposed blindness.

[Nikitn]

I'm sorry, should I be angry that someone specifically pointed out what numbers are "guesses" and what numbers are "confirmed"? The cool thing about data is that it can be interpreted in whichever way you want since it takes out the context. The thing about being a cynic is that it's self imposed blindness.

Nah I'm just saying there is zero reason to trust any of their charts or conclusions, because the sources they use to infer the data are literally unverified rumours. It's fake news, basically.

[Marcus Aemilius Lepidus]

Tbh I think Raqqa is not going to be as difficult a fight as was suspected. It will be rigged to the gills with mines and bombs and there will be a welcoming committee which will dig in hard and surround themselves with human shields. But the main command centre, and presumably al-Baghdadi along with it, has already been moved to Al Qa'im and I think that is where the final showdown will take place. Perhaps they're banking on the fact that by buying themselves more time they can perhaps try to precipitate conflict between Assad, the Turks and the Kurds. Or at least that most of those won't be willing to cross the Iraqi border to chase after them, and so they will only really have to defend themselves from one direction- the Iraqi forces coming up the Euphrates. It is unlikely to be Deir Ez-Zor since there is a major SAA exclave which controls half of the city, and besides the SAA are on the cusp of retaking Palmyra so they could then mount a pincer attack up the M20 road from Palmyra to Deir Ez-Zor once Raqqa is taken.

I personally think the last stand will be Deir Ez-Zor. Their last offensive in Palmyra was to make it incredible more to get their and their last offensives in Deir Ez-Zor show a serious commitment to take that city. The situation on the ground for the SAA is far worse than people tend to think and IS would actually gain another 100k civilians they could exploit and use as human shields. Its not that utopical that they think they could take that city and with it a lot of equipment. The soldiers there are exhausted and under siege for years.

[Love Mountain]

Nah I'm just saying there is zero reason to trust any of their charts or conclusions, because the sources they use to infer the data are literally unverified rumours. It's fake news, basically.

So... what, you don't believe any reports of casualties in the Middle East? That's fair I guess, if an overtly cynical approach to take.

[Flavius Julius Nepos Augustus]

The only way ISIS can hold on its territory (not their main goal, they think on the (very) long term) is to help provoke a major conflict between the Kurdish factions and Turkey. This would weaken the enemies, stop their offensives, make their dark project viable again on the long term etc. + SAA is not going to be able to advance against them in a meaningful way during such a conflict.

That said. ISIS is using drones, I and others were sceptical at first...but it seems to be a major terror weapon (and effective) now.
Warning: war video (no blood) + propaganda!

[Nikitn]

So... what, you don't believe any reports of casualties in the Middle East? That's fair I guess, if an overtly cynical approach to take.

Not unless they are counted and estimated fairly, instead of being simply invented to serve political purposes.

It's better to have an unanswered question than a wrongly answered one.

[Heathen Hammer]

SAA is going to re-take Palmyra.
The big problem that SAA is experiencing, which is kinda similar to the same mistake Russians were making in early 1990s in their Chechnyan province, was assuming they are fighting conventional warfare, while facing a non-conventional enemy.
terrorists sneak behind the front lines, the stash weapons and equipment and strike from behind. After a certain area is cleared of terrorists, SAA just moves on, leaving minimal amount of personnel to watch over that area. That is a huge problem.

[Love Mountain]

Not unless they are counted and estimated fairly, instead of being simply invented to serve political purposes.

It's better to have an unanswered question than a wrongly answered one.

And what would you consider fair?

[Nikitn]

And what would you consider fair?

Proper procedure. Ie, confirmed to be deceased by a proper health system and brought for burial. Not random rebel groups tweeting photos of a body with caption "air strike"

[Marcus Aemilius Lepidus]

So the race to Al-Bab is over, but who actually gains something out of it? Turkey and its allies lost quite some manpower in a months long fight. Now their further path is blocked. The Syrian Government made some landgains with little or no fight against IS. Right now they reached the border to the Kurds. After the Turks stupidly attacked both, the Kurds, without holding the terretory actually have a lifeline between their terretories. Seems without wanting it, the Turks made SAA and the Kurds allies again, after a while of tension between them.

[Almogaver]

Is Erdogan stupid enough to attack Manbij?

[Vanoi]

Already clashes between ES rebels and the SDF in Manbij. Turls are going to have a real fight on their hands considering the SDF is a much stronger foe than the Is especially since the US has been continually supplying the SDF with more heavy weapons and equipment.