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Thread: Could the American Revolution have happened earlier? When, why - and who would have won?

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    Alwyn's Avatar Frothy Goodness
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    Default Could the American Revolution have happened earlier? When, why - and who would have won?

    Players of Empire Total War often ask how they can play as the United States in the Grand Campaign. People often object to this, saying that Grand Campaign starts in 1700 and that, historically, the American Revolution began in 1775. Hence my question: could the American Revolution have begun earlier - and, if it did, what would have caused that and who would have won?

    Here's my tentative view: to answer this question, we need to think about what caused the American Revolution. I probably know less about this than many people on TWC. My impression is that what triggered the Revolution was a combination of tension over westward expansion of the colonies and conflict over unjust laws and taxes. First, the British defeated the French in the French and Indian War. Before that war, I get the impression that the French, the British and some Native American peoples (including some of the peoples represented by the Iroquois Confederacy in ETW) kept each other in check. One source says that "The Iroquois generally remained independent of both powers by trading with both and playing them off against each other." The defeat of the French colonies in the French and Indian War meant that the Iroquois could not continue their previous strategy. The American colonists wanted to expand their territory westward; now, neither the French nor the Native Americans could stop them. This British government was afraid that this would lead to more conflict with America's native peoples, tried to delay this expansion - this was one source of tension between the Americans and the British government (source).

    Another consequences of the French and Indian War (known in Europe as the Seven Years' War) was that the British government was heavily in debt. The British tried to solve this by imposing laws regulating American trade and new taxes. These, too, were a source of significant tension between the American colonists and the British government (source). Of course, in a fully-functioning democracy, if the government imposes unfair burdens on people living in a particular region, then at the next election, the people can elect new representatives who can negotiate a better deal (if their elected representatives had not done this already). But, famously, the British refused to allow the American colonists to elect representatives to Parliament, leading to the rallying cry 'no taxation without representation!'

    For me, these causes of the American Revolution appear to have something in common. Both the tension over expansion of the colonies and the conflict over unjust laws and taxes go back to one event, the French and Indian War/Seven Years' War. This seems to suggest that, if this war had happened earlier, then its consequences - including the American Revolution - would have happened earlier, as well. Perhaps, if British immigration to the Thirteen Colonies had been higher - or if the earliest attempts at starting colonies had been better equipped and more successful - then this would have escalated the conflict between the French and British in North America earlier, leading to an earlier war and an earlier revolution?

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    Default Re: Could the American Revolution have happened earlier? When, why - and who would have won?

    It was going to happen then or before.
    100% mobile poster so pls forgive grammer

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    IrishBlood's Avatar GIVE THEM BLIZZARDS!
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    Default Re: Could the American Revolution have happened earlier? When, why - and who would have won?

    I think it's feasible, considering that the French colony was often in a weaker position and (if I remember correctly) came close to falling once or twice before the 7 year's war, particularly in King Williams war. If the French hadn't repulsed the British at the Battle of Quebec (1690) that could well have spelled the end of French Canada 60+ years before what happened IRL.

    However, would the American colonies be in the same position to revolt? Lets say for arguments sake that the French are annihilated in King Williams war and a series of related events trigger an earlier American revolution in 1700 or there abouts. I don't think the colonies would have had nearly as big a population, making it hard for the rebels to muster a large enough force to defeat the loyalists/troops sent from Britain. French/Spanish support would probably still be guaranteed, but I think Britain would be in a much better position to crush the revolt.

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    Darkhorse's Avatar Praepositus
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    Default Re: Could the American Revolution have happened earlier? When, why - and who would have won?

    Would I be right in saying that local support for the rebellion at its launch barely equalled a third of the population, with a third being loyalist and the rest indifferent? I accept I may well be wrong, this isn't my area of expertise, but if this was indeed the case, then when things were arguably better, wouldn't there have been an even smaller faction pushing for independence?

    I figure that puts me along the same lines as Irish, had it occurred earlier, it was more likely to be defeated. It was touch and go at points as it was.

    An equally interesting question is what could have been done to prevent the rebellion, so if the OP doesn't mind I'd like to leave that here.

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    IrishBlood's Avatar GIVE THEM BLIZZARDS!
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    Default Re: Could the American Revolution have happened earlier? When, why - and who would have won?

    Quote Originally Posted by Darkhorse View Post
    Would I be right in saying that local support for the rebellion at its launch barely equalled a third of the population, with a third being loyalist and the rest indifferent? I accept I may well be wrong, this isn't my area of expertise, but if this was indeed the case, then when things were arguably better, wouldn't there have been an even smaller faction pushing for independence?

    I figure that puts me along the same lines as Irish, had it occurred earlier, it was more likely to be defeated. It was touch and go at points as it was.

    An equally interesting question is what could have been done to prevent the rebellion, so if the OP doesn't mind I'd like to leave that here.
    I think we're on the right track when it comes to population. According to the population of the 13 colonies on Wikipedia there was a HUGE population jump between 1702 and 1775;

    Year Population


    1625 - 1,980


    1641 - 50,000


    1688 - 200,000


    1702 - 270,000


    1715 - 435,000


    1749 - 1,000,000


    1754 - 1,500,000


    1765 - 2,200,000


    1775 - 2,400,000

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirte...ies#Population

    That's gigantic. The American Revolution broke out only 12 years after the French-Indian war. Assuming we go with the scenario with the French being defeated in 1690 and a revolution breaking out even 20 years later in 1710 the population of the colonies would only have been between 270,000 - 435,000. For argument's sake we'll say 300,000.

    That would mean the population would be EIGHT times smaller than when the actual revolt broke out in 1775 (with a population of 2,400,000). That's a massive difference and would have made crushing the rebellion far easier, especially if we go with the assumption that Darkhorse proposed above with 1 third being supportive to the rebels, 1 third opposed and 1 third neutral.

    I think and earlier rebellion would have been doomed to failure and would have led to a larger British garrison as well addressing some of the colonists concerns as a means of defusing future revolts. Who knows, maybe the USA would have gone the same way as Canada?
    Last edited by IrishBlood; January 27, 2017 at 06:50 AM.

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