US Presidential Election 2016: Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump

[snuggans]

now that we are officially in the general election phase it is time for a new thread with a poll!


here's the current status:







relevant links:

Hillary Clinton on the issues

Donald Trump on the issues

The Trump Memos, the American Civil Liberties Union's PDF on just how unconstitutional the Donald is

Gary Johnson on the issues

Jill Stein on the issues




with only 81 days left until election, most people have already made up their minds, who do you support TWC?

[alhoon]

There should have been options "I am outside of USA but I want X to win" for the not-few foreigners that take an interest in these elections.

And now, back to mudpit stuff:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/democrati...004426528.html

A Republican tried to infiltrate a senate campaign in Wisconsin.

It's not that interesting that she tried to infiltrate. What I find most interesting is what she did last year in Clinton campaign:
"Voter registration information shows Maass is a registered Republican in Yonkers, N.Y., matching the phone area code."
"One scheme including attempting to pass potentially illegal cash donations onto the campaign."


It's nice that the Republicans are so convinced that Hillary gets illegal donations that are trying to plant some in her campaign.

[snuggans]

that's why i used the term 'support' and not 'vote'. support applies to anyone, making a separate category for non-US citizens would have complicated the poll too much

[Enros]

that's why i used the term 'support' and not 'vote'. support applies to anyone, making a separate category for non-US citizens would have complicated the poll too much

Ferrets did it for the Brexit poll. I think it would have been interesting to see if foreigners are further left or right (I imagine left) than US voters.

[B. W.]

now that we are officially in the general election phase it is time for a new thread with a poll!


here's the current status:







relevant links:

Hillary Clinton on the issues

Donald Trump on the issues

The Trump Memos, the American Civil Liberties Union's PDF on just how unconstitutional the Donald is

Gary Johnson on the issues

Jill Stein on the issues




with only 81 days left until election, most people have already made up their minds, who do you support TWC?

That poll is over a week old. The latest poll shows a two point difference, which obviously means most people haven't made their minds up:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...te_house_watch


This must be particularly troubling for the Hillary camp as they have spent nearly $100 million on TV adds since the convention. Meanwhile Trump continues to sit on nearly $100 million he raised in July. He hasn't spent a penny on TV advertisement.

This combined with the fact that CNN was in a full court press fabricating false stories about Trump must be particularly troubling for Hillary's folks. CNN came out with a story that Trump had given out information he received in a security briefing, Unfortunately for them he didn't receive his first briefing until yesterday. They also said he was questioned by the Secret Service about his Second Amendment comments. It was a lie, completely fabricated. CNN's rating have dropped below those of MSNBC because of it (who watches MSNBC?)

Hillary is going to need the support that CNN can lead voters her way, but unfortunately they have been discredited before she even hits the third turn in the track.

Meanwhile trump continues his unconventional campaign drawing massive crowds while Hillary is taking off until next week to "rest up".

[snuggans]

That poll is over a week old. The latest poll shows a two point difference, which obviously means most people haven't made their minds up:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...te_house_watch

what poll is over a week old? i didn't link to any polls, the maps i linked to are averages of ALL polls

you then linked to a single measly poll (where Hillary is still ahead anyway) to compare and contrast, but i don't think you know what it is you're talking about

Meanwhile trump continues his unconventional campaign drawing massive crowds

that sure worked for Bernie, i'm having a laugh at how both Bernie and Trump campaigns keep exaggerating the amount of attendees at their rallies by thousands

Ferrets did it for the Brexit poll. I think it would have been interesting to see if foreigners are further left or right (I imagine left) than US voters.

then click on the numbers to display who voted for what, then you can see where foreigners on TWC stand

[alhoon]

Ferrets did it for the Brexit poll. I think it would have been interesting to see if foreigners are further left or right (I imagine left) than US voters.

I am not sure left-right cuts it anymore. Progressives - conservatives seems better.

then click on the numbers to display who voted for what, then you can see where foreigners on TWC stand

That assumes we know who's from USA and who is not.

[B. W.]

what poll is over a week old? i didn't link to any polls, the maps i linked to are averages of ALL polls

you then linked to a single measly poll (where Hillary is still ahead anyway) to compare and contrast, but i don't think you know what it is you're talking about

That page was posted on Nate Silver's 538 a week ago. I look for it to be updated in the next day or so. Silver's polls have literally been all over the place which is to be expected in an unconventional race as this one is.

[snuggans]

538's forecast is updated every few hours, so is RealClearPolitic's

[Acco]

That page was posted on Nate Silver's 538 a week ago. I look for it to be updated in the next day or so. Silver's polls have literally been all over the place which is to be expected in an unconventional race as this one is.

538 constantly updates their forecast. Whenever a new poll is released, they update it. In fact, it was updated 10 minutes ago (they added the latest Nevada poll). Look at the top of the page, it'll say when it was last updated, and click on the "Updates" tab on the left to see which new polls have been added.

They're not "Silver's polls" either, he aggregates them but doesn't conduct them.

[VINC.XXIII]

"Baraka described the vigil for the victims of the Charlie Hebdo shooting as a "white power march" and Je suis Charlie as an "arrogant rallying cry for white supremacy" because of France's colonial history, the caricature at issue, French support for American policy in Syria and Libya, and the disproportionate interest in this particular act of war.^[33]
In January 2016, Baraka's "Je suis Charlie" article was republished in an anthology about the November 2015 Paris attacks, ANOTHER French False Flag? Bloody Tracks from Paris to San Bernadino, edited by Kevin Barrett, a Holocaust denier and 9/11 conspiracy theorist.^[18] Baraka also has appeared at least twice on Barrett's radio show.^[18] Other contributors to the anthology (including controversial figures such as Gilad Atzmon and Alain Soral)^[18] posited "that the Charlie Hebdo attacks and many others were perpetrated by the CIA and Mossad" as "false flags."^[34] In "Friends Don't Let Friends Vote for Jill Stein", Yair Rosenberg of Tablet described the work as a "veritable who's who of bigots and conspiracy theorists."^[34]
In August 2016, Baraka said that he had been unaware both of Barrett's Holocaust beliefs and of the views of some of the book's other contributors.^[18] In a statement, Baraka said that he would be "happy to discuss the details" of his own writing:

If others want to imply other motivations or positions not stated in my article related to the subject of the book or any of the authors, I cannot control that. But all who know me and my 40-year history of fighting for the rights of all people who have experienced the indignity of oppression will share my confidence that any smear campaign against my life of human rights activism will not succeed.^[18]

Baraka also released a statement disavowing Holocaust denial.^[18]"

[snuggans]

if there's one thing we can agree on, VINC, is that i don't know what Jill Stein was thinking when she chose Ajamu Baraka as her running mate

Jill Stein has been trying to get the Bernie tribe to migrate her way, but she forgot one important fact: during the Democratic primary, Bernie gained a huge following in white, rural states, and most of his supporters were white

so when Ajamu Baraka talks about Bernie's campaign reinforcing white supremacy, it's going to create a conflict with majority of Bernie's rural white supporters, not what Jill Stein wanted

[Roma_Victrix]

Sigh. I like Jill Stein and her stance on several issues, but her running mate Ajamu Baraka is too much of a nutter and cannot be trusted within an inch of the oval office. We can't have a Vice President who openly insults an important NATO ally like France, since the president of France Hollande even participated in that march. Is he a white supremacist too? His comments about Bernie Sanders was the last straw really. Looks like I'm throwing my weight behind Gary Johnson, even though we disagree on stuff like leaving abortion as a state's rights issue to be handled by the individual States of the Union (an idea that could have some consequence on the appointment of new justices to the Supreme Court, filling not just one but perhaps two new seats during the next presidential term after Obam leaves office). It's more of a protest vote anyway, since I can't bring myself to support Hillary Clinton and her various policy stances, especially foreign policy. It looks as if she's going to beat Trump handily, so long as she doesn't continue to alienate her liberal base and so long as Trump keeps putting his foot in his mouth and saying things that get him into trouble (even pushing away some military veterans as potential voters with comments about McCain and that Khan guy).

[empr guy]

Yeah, the green party isn't a real option, no name recognition, isn't on the ballot in most states, and is competitive in none of them (thank god). Still polling better among black people then trump funnily enough.

Sigh. I like Jill Stein and her stance on several issues, but her running mate Ajamu Baraka is too much of a nutter and cannot be trusted within an inch of the oval office. We can't have a Vice President who openly insults an important NATO ally like France, since the president of France Hollande even participated in that march. Is he a white supremacist too? His comments about Bernie Sanders was the last straw really. Looks like I'm throwing my weight behind Gary Johnson, even though we disagree on stuff like leaving abortion as a state's rights issue to be handled by the individual States of the Union (an idea that could have some consequence on the appointment of new justices to the Supreme Court, filling not just one but perhaps two new seats during the next presidential term after Obam leaves office). It's more of a protest vote anyway, since I can't bring myself to support Hillary Clinton and her various policy stances, especially foreign policy. It looks as if she's going to beat Trump handily, so long as she doesn't continue to alienate her liberal base and so long as Trump keeps putting his foot in his mouth and saying things that get him into trouble (even pushing away some military veterans as potential voters with comments about McCain and that Khan guy).

Jill stein is an anti science loon, unfit to run a McDonalds let alone the country. Her running mate is just more honest about his idiocy.


I'm curious though, can you describe what about Johnson appeals to you as an ex bernie guy? Their policies aren't anything alike.

[Acco]

Sigh. I like Jill Stein and her stance on several issues, but her running mate Ajamu Baraka is too much of a nutter and cannot be trusted within an inch of the oval office. We can't have a Vice President who openly insults an important NATO ally like France, since the president of France Hollande even participated in that march. Is he a white supremacist too? His comments about Bernie Sanders was the last straw really. Looks like I'm throwing my weight behind Gary Johnson, even though we disagree on stuff like leaving abortion as a state's rights issue to be handled by the individual States of the Union (an idea that could have some consequence on the appointment of new justices to the Supreme Court, filling not just one but perhaps two new seats during the next presidential term after Obam leaves office). It's more of a protest vote anyway, since I can't bring myself to support Hillary Clinton and her various policy stances, especially foreign policy. It looks as if she's going to beat Trump handily, so long as she doesn't continue to alienate her liberal base and so long as Trump keeps putting his foot in his mouth and saying things that get him into trouble (even pushing away some military veterans as potential voters with comments about McCain and that Khan guy).

Stein's running mate is a more obvious nutter, but Stein herself is too. And she's not even remotely qualified to be president. Her highest political position was what, town council in a small place in Massachusetts?

At least the Libertarians have a ticket with veritable executive experience. Still, if you liked Sanders and his platform, it's honestly hilarious that you would support a Libertarian candidate. Especially because Johnson's running mate is much more of a typical Republican than a libertarian anyway. Protest votes are so meaningless and I'm shocked you'd risk Trump to make such a useless point. Not my vote though.

[Abdülmecid I]

Well, to be honest, he's not much worse than the presidential candidate herself, whose unscientific views about medical issues, like vaccines and homeopathy are really weird, to say the least. Anyway, I wouldn't be so sure about Clinton's victory, as it's still too early to reach definitive conclusions. As November approaches, party polarization will intensify and Trump will probably realize that his fascistoid edginess, despite being invaluable during the Republican primaries, is not going to help him in the presidential elections. Gary Johnson does indeed look like the most acceptable candidate, although I am no fan of many of his policies and opinions, like his paranoia about the potentially tyrannical central authorities, but protest vote is against my principles, so I am not going to participate in the poll.

[snuggans]

I'm curious though, can you describe what about Johnson appeals to you as an ex bernie guy?

he's not Hillary

Anyway, I wouldn't be so sure about Clinton's victory, as it's still too early to reach definitive conclusions. As November approaches, party polarization will intensify and Trump will probably realize that his fascistoid edginess, despite being invaluable during the Republican primaries, is not going to help him in the presidential elections.

with Breitbart CEO taking over chief executive duties of Trump's campaign and Paul Manafort demoted, Trump is going all in on fascistoid edginess. his only form of "pivoting" was in making his Muslim ban more constitutional by toning down on banning Muslim and instead targeting Muslim countries or countries with political instability

unfortunately for Trump, the current administration has already increased visa restrictions for Syrians and Iraqis, the current administration has already been vetting refugees. the current administration is and always had been 10 steps ahead of Trump, which is why Trump has been trying all this time to paint them like a bunch of ineffective terrorist sympathizers

[Roma_Victrix]

I'm curious though, can you describe what about Johnson appeals to you as an ex bernie guy? Their policies aren't anything alike.

Stein's running mate is a more obvious nutter, but Stein herself is too. And she's not even remotely qualified to be president. Her highest political position was what, town council in a small place in Massachusetts?

At least the Libertarians have a ticket with veritable executive experience. Still, if you liked Sanders and his platform, it's honestly hilarious that you would support a Libertarian candidate. Especially because Johnson's running mate is much more of a typical Republican than a libertarian anyway. Protest votes are so meaningless and I'm shocked you'd risk Trump to make such a useless point. Not my vote though.

Don't let Hillary Clinton off the hook so easily, even as her ardent supporters. There are a good number of positions where Johnson is actual to the left of Hillary, not the right. Take for instance capital punishment. He unequivocally opposes it. Quoting Wiki: "He believes government inevitably 'makes mistakes with regard to the death penalty,' and does not 'want to put one innocent person to death to punish 99 who are guilty'."

He's also in favor of ending the War on Drugs and mass incarceration of non-violent drug offenders. Compare his stance there to Hillary Clinton's stance.

In fact, instead of cheerleading her constantly, why don't you hold Hillary's feet to the fire on certian positions? I honestly doubt you agree with her 100% on every issue. That would be weird, like the mentality of a cultist. Isn't that what you guys say about Trump supporters all the time? The rabid ones who agree with Trump no matter what? Perhaps you should apply the same standard to Hillary.

[Acco]

Trump will probably realize that his fascistoid edginess, despite being invaluable during the Republican primaries, is not going to help him in the presidential elections.

Won't happen. Trump just hired the CEO of Breitbart (far-right, almost tabloid-like media organization) to lead his campaign. Believe it or not, Trump has felt boxed in lately, so he wants to be himself again. It's going to be a fun ride for the rest of the way.

Don't let Hillary Clinton off the hook so easily, even as her ardent supporters. There are a good number of positions where Johnson is actual to the left of Hillary, not the right. Take for instance capital punishment. He unequivocally opposes it. Quoting Wiki: "He believes government inevitably 'makes mistakes with regard to the death penalty,' and does not 'want to put one innocent person to death to punish 99 who are guilty'."

In fact, instead of cheerleading her constantly, why don't you hold Hillary's feet to the fire on certian positions? I honestly doubt you agree with her 100% on every issue. That would be weird, like the mentality of a cultist. Isn't that what you guys say about Trump supporters all the time? The rabid ones who agree with Trump no matter what? Perhaps you should apply the same standard to Hillary.

That's a tortuous response to a normal observation (that Johnson and Sanders are on clear opposite sides of the political spectrum).

I disagree with Clinton on a few things. For example, I think marijuana should be legal, Clinton just wants to reschedule it. But Trump would probably hire an AG (Christie) who will pursue to enforce federal law in Colorado and other states. I'll support Clinton on this issue because incremental progress is better than sinking the whole boat. And if Clinton realizes that a majority of people support legalization, she's in a better position to change her stance during her term (in fact, I think the Democrats probably will be the first to push for legalization).

Beyond Clinton, the Democratic platform is the most progressive it has been in decades, partially influenced by Sanders, so I'll support that rather than help enable one of the most regressive platforms that the GOP has ever pushed (with that nice little pro-Russian addendum that Trump added). You'd think 2000 would have convinced a few people.

[empr guy]

Well, to be honest, he's not much worse than the presidential candidate herself, whose unscientific views about medical issues, like vaccines and homeopathy are really weird, to say the least. Anyway, I wouldn't be so sure about Clinton's victory, as it's still too early to reach definitive conclusions. As November approaches, party polarization will intensify and Trump will probably realize that his fascistoid edginess, despite being invaluable during the Republican primaries, is not going to help him in the presidential elections. Gary Johnson does indeed look like the most acceptable candidate, although I am no fan of many of his policies and opinions, like his paranoia about the potentially tyrannical central authorities, but protest vote is against my principles, so I am not going to participate in the poll.

On the contrary, he demoted his campaign executive Paul Manafort (the one on Putins payroll) so that he could hire brietbart news/Trump fan fic website exec Steve Bannon so that the campaign would "let trump be trump" and he could double down on his primary strategy. If anything he's going to go even more off the deep end. His campaign has fully embraced the "skewed" polls logic, because otherwise the campaign is dead in the water. (Have we heard anything significant from clinton since the convention? There's a reason why, after trump was given some rope to hang himself with he's been more then happy.)

Note this video of a senior trump campaign staffer not admitting the campaign is losing currently. http://www.vox.com/2016/8/17/1252511...mp-polls-video

Spoiler for transcript: 

KEILAR: You say it’s not a shake-up, but you guys are down—
COHEN: Says who? Says who?
KEILAR: Polls. Most of them. [confused] All of them?
COHEN: Says who?
KEILAR: [as if speaking to a small child] Polls. I just told you. I answered your question!
COHEN: Okay. Which polls?
KEILAR: All of them.
COHEN: Okay. And your question is?