''Why die for Danzig'' (1)

[Sire Brenshar]

warning - contains complex information and large bodies of text. Do not read if you dont want spoilers for what is happening in the world and just want to enjoy life without the 90% rest of the world interfering with it.*

******** Does nobody else see this trend of authoritanism along Russia's border? Hungary, Turkey, and recently Poland have all essentially Putinized – they’ve had their respective governments centralize power through media control. (I do believe that without more internal protests and added external Western pressure, Poland will become an unofficially authoritarian state. Though it is true that at the moment external pressure might actually strengthen pro-government sentiment)2

2) http://geopolitika.lt/?artc=7734

Yes, there is a similar trend in other places, but I am choosing to focus on one thing here. Fairly recently, the media is finally picking up on something I wrote about over a year ago: the possibility of another European war over the Baltics that nobody will care about and that will quickly be forgotten. To everyone’s detriment, forgetting that the two most commonly known world wars were fought for control over of Eastern Europe (Ukraine specifically). And if it isn’t forgotten it’s because the worst case has indeed happened and involved a nuclear weapon or two. 3

3) http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...than-you-think

One of the important problems of this war is the speed at which it will take place - the Baltics can be occupied within 2 days, during which an intense social media campaign will be taking place convincing people of how the Baltics are really just Russian historically and how a quarter of their population speaks Russian and of course how oppressed those people are (I believe the first time Russia used the ''opressed minorities'' argument was in 1772 to justify invading and helping conquer the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth - though I do also get it confused with when they used that excuse on september 17th 1939 to again co-invaded Poland and the Baltics with Germany). ''Oh'', says the average westerner, until now clueless to the existance of these places, ''thats sounds pretty legit''. In the meantime the equally clueless politicians will be waiting for the public to decide what position is popular enough to support, while by this point weeks will have past and NATO countries still have not agreed on how to respond to this attack on their foundamental values. And thats the point, the strategic goal, of disinformation campaigns.

As a quick example, observe this article Atlantic Council released recently:

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/publi...for-deterrence

Note how sites like RT and Global very soon afterwards (this was the first atlantic council report to receive widespread media attention) begin to attack the report.

https://www.rt.com/op-edge/354751-us...cil-moscow-rt/

http://www.globalresearch.ca/natos-a...omplex/5537797

While all that stuff is explanative and all, lets not forget Russia has invaded Ukraine - Europes second largest country, that Putin in a 130 minute video to the Russian population celebrating his 15th year of rule (even though he has only been president for 12) exaplained that actually ''Russia voluntarily [...] gave up its own territory'',(4) after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and between the ease at which he speaks of using nuclear weapons, make this a very very realistic scenario - which RT and GR try to deflect away as much as possibly by pointing at the US's military-industrial complexes warmongering machine. Only, the US up until last month didnt even have any combat troops stationed in Poland and still doesnt in the Baltics - meaning if they want to start a war they probably wouldnt be winning it - as Russia has over 80 000 well equipped (easily increased to 150 000) troops stationed on the Baltic borders and NATO has less than 30 000, again not including any US troops just cannon fodder like lightly armed Canadian, German, and UK soldiers, in addition to the Baltics own militaries. So yeah we can dismiss that its the US ''pushing'' for a war.

4) http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/04/2...ssr-is-russia/

Oh and I forgot to add that Russia practiced an invasion of the Baltics in its Zapad2009 and Zapad2012 exercises, and also practiced the use of nuclear weapons. But I think the point of how pathetic RT is should have sunk in by now. As if Ukraine wasnt already a lesson learnt by now.

* * *

This all matters, because the EU and possibly NATO are collapsing as international institutions (read: international-country laws - the important stuff like the UN that are trying to prevent wars and lessen climate change. And no, NATO is not a big, bad, tool of warfare and invasion. NATO has never acted without Security Council approval (oh which Russia and China are permanently part of) and even more shockingly, Sweden, a country that has an openly FEMINIST FOREIGN POLICY [bet nobody even knew that], is actively considering joining it.

And honestly people need to learn to talk about world issues not just act shocked by them. Yes, of course people are dying. Theres literally tens of thousands of people dying everyday, we dont need to pretend to care about random groups of a few of those deaths we need to understand why they happen, what needs to be done to prevent more of it happening.

1) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_Die_for_Danzig%3F

*

[Sire Brenshar]

Ill update OP as I finish my real article ln the subject - that delves into the Beginning of time of why Russia even wants the Baltics in the first place (in brief, for geographical and historical reasons). But that will have to wait. This is just my late night rant that has consumed many hours now.

I encourage actual discussion, and will respond only to meaningful questions and challanges. Hopefully the situation here is one we can all eventually agree with is a possibility. Take note that while I do think Russia is pushing for this to happen, it is to a lage extent from NATO's and the US's own faults, as well as the fault of what Russia itself defines itself as. Remember, that democracy in Russia was a complete failure and between the national shame that was Yeltsin, the murders, the thefts, and the general collapse of law, Russia has had a very different road from what people in the West imagined.

[Condottiere 40K]

I think Putin wants to enjoy his palaces and die of natural causes, old and in his bed, not risk getting evaporated in a nuclear strike.

One reason putting a tripwire force near the border changes the the nuclear escalation calculation.

[Heathen Hammer]

Oh, more fearmongering with Russian boogeyman.
Poland and other Central/Eastern European countries aren't being "putinized", they just realize the dangers of globalization and don't want to go through the same crap Germany and France are going right now. Not to mention that politicians like Merkel resemble Putin far more then Orban does.
Also OP failed to mention that Russian "invasion" was following a coup staged by Western powers, which overthrew the democratically elected president, not to mention that post-Soviet borders are entirely artificial. Not surprised, that the source is "euromaidanpress", which is Ukrainian version of Pravda.
It is important to understand that the biggest threat to peace are globalist elites: individuals and institutions that seek to erode national sovereignty of countries. UN and NATO helped start more wars then they stopped or pretended to attempt to stop.

[Dragus]

One reason putting a tripwire force near the border changes the the nuclear escalation calculation.

Those have definitely played an important role in reinforcing the Baltic, even if their deployment was a bit low-key. We should also be seeing a more sternly-reinforced NATO in eastern Europe over the next few years given the current way political gears across Europe and North America have been turning.

Also, even if one can have concerns of Poland flirting with authoritarianism, one can't deny that they are firmly anti-Russian in their position. Furthermore, NATO's primary role is to prevent Russian reach from expanding westward, and it will be continuing to accomplish that goal. With stronger leadership reinforcing (and probably even expanding) its role in the near future, NATO won't be going anywhere any time soon and thankfully we won't be having the Danzig-style appeasement type of situation that the author fears.

[tadeo.ziu]

Well the only possible way to prevent a Russian invasion of the Baltics is the permanent creation of NATO bases in those countries.


Inviato dal mio iPad utilizzando Tapatalk

[Tango12345]

As this isn't about a specific event so much as a wider trend, its better in the Political Academy rather than the Mudpit, so moved.

[Caelifer_1991]

Russia is indeed one of the few remaining credible threats in the world, that is actively attempting to expand its borders at the expense of its neighbours, and its ironic that the nationalists of the various countries of the west are the most cowardly when it comes to accepting this, and the most willing to adopt an appeasement strategy instead of taking steps to ensure the sovereignty and security of our allies. They'd rather bury their heads in the sand at the overt attempts of Russia to break down our unified lines of defence, and the underlying political and military structures that support them, preferring instead to apologise for it and pretend that its outright invasion of its neighbours is morally justified. Perhaps, while ironic, it is not so surprising, given Russian funding for the various nationalist groups within the West who are actively seeking to splinter our economic, political and military solidarity, and that those who so often complain of dangerous internal elements, are those very same internal threats themselves.

[Sire Brenshar]

I think Putin wants to enjoy his palaces and die of natural causes, old and in his bed, not risk getting evaporated in a nuclear strike.

One reason putting a tripwire force near the border changes the the nuclear escalation calculation.

There is no risk of nuclear retaliation.

Firstly for technical reasons. Russia has developed tactical nuclear weapons who's range are small and cannot be mistaken for mass nuclear assault. This is also why US AEGIS Ashore is to be stationed in Poland and why the for last decade Poland's number one military modernization program has been anti- missile defence - as these allow small ballisitc weapons to be shot down, but are not actually capable of destroying strategic nuclear weapons - again the weapons that might be mistaken for a mass nuclear assault. Furthermore the west only has strategic weapons, that would force Russia into firing back. In other words MAD, and the thing about MAD is you literally do not go there.

Second, the scenario is where Russia uses nuclear weapons to DEESCALATE the situation - they escalate the conflict with limited nuclear weapon strikes, which forces the west to deescalate as lets be honest nobody is going to mess with that, especially not over some countries nobody had even heard of until that point.

Lastly, we are talking about capabilites here. Nobody is saying Russia will use nuclear weapons the fear is they will to get what they want - meaning if they take the Baltics, and NATO somehow manages to pick itself up, it will have to INVADE RUSSIA to retake the Baltics (Because the Baltics are and always have been Russia). This allows Russia to legally use nuclear weapons in its defence. And you can be sure there will a very vocal group of RT readers (1 million in the States alone is it?) who will argue that this was warranted.

The tripwire is literally meaningless, notice how after the Warsaw summit the US did not deploy troops to the Baltics - only to Poland. They know theres no point. Now Russia is free to individually manipulate German Uk and Canadian forces there by avoiding real combat and showing to the west how they dont seel a greater NATO war - which OF COURSE they do not. Why on earth would they want that.

Oh, more fearmongering with Russian boogeyman.
Poland and other Central/Eastern European countries aren't being "putinized", they just realize the dangers of globalization and don't want to go through the same crap Germany and France are going right now. Not to mention that politicians like Merkel resemble Putin far more then Orban does.
Also OP failed to mention that Russian "invasion" was following a coup staged by Western powers, which overthrew the democratically elected president, not to mention that post-Soviet borders are entirely artificial. Not surprised, that the source is "euromaidanpress", which is Ukrainian version of Pravda.
It is important to understand that the biggest threat to peace are globalist elites: individuals and institutions that seek to erode national sovereignty of countries. UN and NATO helped start more wars then they stopped or pretended to attempt to stop.

A) You dont know what Putinization means. If you want I have an excellent book on how Putin rose to power through television, and how all these neighboring states have taken note. Its so very easy to prove see.

B) It has nothing to do with globalization its about people wanting to grab power.

C) I by all means will link to you the video in which Putin explains that the territory of the former Soviet States was ''voluntarily given up''. Im surprised though you being Russia you havent even watched the film? What do you mean post-Soviet borders are artificial? What makes borders artifical or unartificial? Im getting this weird fascist vibe from that statement.

D) By all means prove that the UN and NATO started more wars than they prevented, as if you can actually 'demonstrate' that what they did did or did not lead to another outcome lol.

[Condottiere 40K]

Putin's agenda to to ensure Putin remains in power and gets to enjoy it's perquisites; he's not going to risk that with taking back the Balkans, unless there's a threat to his his position, and he needs to shore up his popularity ratings.

Current speculation is that he bit off more than he could chew in the Ukraine. The current sabotage claim may be his repetition of the German casus belli prior to their invasion of Poland, though his war aims may be limited to a sweep through East Ukraine and a land connection to the Crimea.

[Sire Brenshar]

Putin's agenda to to ensure Putin remains in power and gets to enjoy it's perquisites; he's not going to risk that with taking back the Balkans, unless there's a threat to his his position, and he needs to shore up his popularity ratings.

Current speculation is that he bit off more than he could chew in the Ukraine. The current sabotage claim may be his repetition of the German casus belli prior to their invasion of Poland, though his war aims may be limited to a sweep through East Ukraine and a land connection to the Crimea.

I dont think so.

When Putin was elected he was so on the promise of leaving Russia a great power. To be exact, this is what was shown on television:

‘Russia was and will remain a great
power,’

‘This is preconditioned by the
inseparable characteristics of its geopolitical,
economic and cultural existence. They have
determined the mentality of the Russian people and
the policy of the government throughout the history
of Russia and they cannot but do so at present.’

‘Russia is in the middle of one of the most
difficult periods in its history. For the first time in
the past 200–300 years, it is facing a real threat of
sliding to the second, possibly even the third,
echelon of states. We are running out of time left to
remove this threat.’

Judah, Ben. Fragile Empire: How Russia fell in and out of love with Putin, 122, 123.)

So far those goals are not really complete, not with Ukraine still indepedent and the Baltics (who are the closest foreign border to Moscow, also not the Balkans people need to stop making that mistake).

Some people are speculting that Putin is acting so strongly against the west because of the completely hopeless geopolitical situation to the East with China - he's desperate for a victory where one might be achieved. And desperate is the right word I think, considering the growing number of conflicts Russia is becoming involved in and such ballsy actions like hacking a US political party during elections. He needs his legacy, he needs some proof of his promises, otherwise his ratings are the only thing keeping him in power. And those wont stay high forever not while the economy remains in .

Im sure he has many options though. Thats what Russia has been creating for itself all this time. The army is mobile, and can redeploy anywhere it is needed very quickly.

Ukraine for sure is resource intensive but not overly so. The problem is Russia needs constant high readiness troops across the border to intervene im case Ukraine makes a major assault. A large scale war in both the Baltics and Ukraine would probably be a disaster.

But Russia has time. Theres no need to invade the Baltics right now, not when Trump may be elected. And he already stated he wouldnt defend them without ''revision''. The scenario where Putin invades the Baltics only for Trump to announce they do not meet NATO criteria including over their GDP spending on military seems very likely to me. Oh yeah and lets not forget the EU might not even exist at that point, Germany has elections next year too and those are being watched very very intently by Russia.

[Condottiere 40K]

With Trump, foreign policy is unpredictable, since the story from Kasich is that he has no interest in governing, and will outsource all policy decisions, just being available for photo opportunities, and walking up to the Presidential podium.

May be the first time an American President will get impeached for incompetence.

Under Hillary, Putin knows he will be sockblocked for the next four to eight years.

As regards to his Far Eastern comrades, they outnumber, out produce, out innovate and will outlive him; the fact that he's already sold them the crown jewels of the Russian military equipment ensures that the best Russia can hope for with the Chinese is a Special Relationship that the British enjoy with the Americans.

[fkizz]

Putin in general is highly skilled in foreign affairs and gaming would be foreign opponents, but he can't improve Russia and its inner social fiber. I mean he's a vast improvement compared to Yeltsin (maybe that's why he manages to stay in power), but Russia is huge, full of resources, and under its potential.

West demonizing Putin has the ironic effect of increasing his popularity inside Russia, many Russsians or people in Russiansphere don't trust West much by default, so if they see it fearing Putin, must mean in such logic Putin will keep them safe.

Regardless, in Syrian Civil War, Putin and his staff are playing their cards amazingly well, but Ukraine was very meh in comparison.

Under Hillary, Putin knows he will be sockblocked for the next four to eight years.

Obama is losing to Putin in Syria civil war, and not only in Warfare. Should Hillary be another Obama...

[Condottiere 40K]

But Obama's agenda isn't Hillary's, at least in foreign policy; the legacy he wants her to preserve is the domestic gains he's been able to make.

[Sire Brenshar]

May be the first time an American President will get impeached for incompetence.

Could it? I would love that.

But I do see huge huge problems arising from that. Imagine how Trump supporters would respond and how RT would drum up their 1 million American viewers.

Under Hillary, Putin knows he will be sockblocked for the next four to eight years.

This honestly makes me think that Trump might invade Latvia and Estonja right before the elections, causing Trump to instantly win as Hillary announces her intention to go to war with Russia alongside Obama.

[Condottiere 40K]

He did invade Scotland.

[Sire Brenshar]

Meant to write Russia there whoops.

[Adar]

The only thing that truly worries me is developments in USA and Britain. Politicians like Donald Trump and Boris Johnson believe that they are smart and dealing with a businessman. In reality dealing with Putin is much more like dealing with a crocodile which wait for his prey to make a mistake and then strikes. As long as NATO members are committed to defending the Baltics, then Putin will not be stupid enough to attack the Baltic states. But if Trump or Johnson believe that they can make economical gains by appeasement politics, then all hell may break lose as they suddenly realized that they have handed themselves and their allies an extremely bad deal. This is especially true for the Baltic countries which have significant armies that I doubt will fold in two days as some claim. They do however lack their own air support and if Trumpists decide to withhold air power or allows Russia to envelop the front by a naval invasion, then they will sooner or later fall.

From a Swedish perspective this get even worse with the current trend in Eastern Europe where increasingly authoritarian leaders are taking control. Supporting democracy is an important part of the self image of western countries and it is therefore much easier for Russia to exploit weaknesses in countries which are not perceived as properly democratic by western populations.

[Mayer]

An interesting question, I should ask Poland.

On a serious note, the OP believes that authoritarianism in Europe is a russian export product only. I would like to remind you, that Merkel disregarded EU treaties to have her way with the Euro rescue packages and broke several german laws with her refugee policy, that the austrian presidential election was rigged and the pretender Van der Bellen said he would prevent a FPÖ government regardless of election results by dissolving the parliament, that there was a small coup d'état in greece before Varoufakis could introduce a parallel currency, collusion of republicans and socialists in France to prevent the Front National from taking any departments and not to mention the left-leaning bias of virtually all media outlets, left hecklers on rallies, destruction of property of persons with controverse opinions and real proposals of imprisonment for writing certain things on social media.. the list goes on

[Sire Brenshar]

^ I do not believe that. For the second time people fail to understand what Putinization means. It means copying what works - in this case in a 'loose' democracy, which Poland Turkey Hungary all are and as are pretty much all democracies except for those part of NATO since before 1990 give or take a few, you use the media to stay in power and to turn the executive into the dominate power within the country. Thats all. Putin is literally not even Russia.

But what came here to post: (Another late night essay)

There is no such thing as right and wrong in international security, unfortunately. That would be history. *

Two things need to be established about the Baltic States:
1. Russia wants them, needs them.
2. They are running out of time to do this. NATO is gradually building military capability there and at some point it will be too difficult to take by force - currently, it is very weak.

And I base this off:

1. Russia's sudden need to invade Ukraine after the possibility of it become a more liberal (meaning ''Western''. Or ''Trans-Atlantic'', to be precise) state (a 'state' meaning a 'country').
2. Their constant mentioning of the desire be a ''great power'', meaning militarily secure, which means holding lots of territory.
3. There are less than 30 000 NATO soldiers in the region. Russia has access to 150 000 at least. NATO forces there have the capability to shoot down small recon drones with two weapons - Anti-Ballistic-Missile missiles like Patriot missiles, or using M4 rifles.

Does it mean the Baltic States will be invaded? No. People who are also experts in international affairs say so at least.
But what is being missed is that international systems are being dismembered. The EU is being shaken, though Brexit is actually responsible for the AfD party in Germany having collapsed - which is tremendous news! But less joyful is Hungary is still no longer a real democracy. Austria has elected a far-right party. Poland, the EU's number 6, is probably also becoming authoritarian. There is serious economic disparity between north and south Europe, made far far worse by a huuge immigration crises.
More importantly - NATO, the defensive alliance between all these places and North America (except for Southern North America), is also at risk. During the recent Anakonda NATO exercise, the largest in Central Europe since the collapse of the Soviet Union, France was not present. Neither was Italy. Turkey (NATO's second largest army) recently began threatening the USA and Germany - and besides is also jailing thousands of people for not being PC enough. And of course Donald Trump, would like to make America Great Again, meaning who knows what, but what it does mean is he would take NATOs most important article - the need to take appropriate measures against anyone invading NATO members, commonly accepted to mean to declare war, and make it a question of alliance $$$ contribution (mainly, or so he seems to say), but probably also other things like whatever Putin says it should be.

What Im saying, is the situation is grim. The global trend is that war is becoming more likely by all the world powers - including China, which recently had its major territorial claims overruled by the UN's Hague court and has since been acting very aggressively. There is a lot of tension everywhere.

Some other things I want to say:

Feel free to ask for the source on any claims I have made. I will gladly provide it.

Despite how it might seem Russia is not causing all this. They are merely taking advantage of what is essentially the sheer stupidity of the people. All the lessons the past century taught us are being forgotten. Exactly 100 years ago the Battle of Somme was taking place, and today the EU, the grand European plan to put that all behind us, is falling apart.

* Obviously some things are moral and immoral, kinda. But thats another debate entirely. I think simply put liberalism is the best thing to ever exist for humans since humans started harvesting the very earth to their advantage - which is probably why we need to find a way to colonize other planets.