The Polish-Soviet War: A world changing victory over Communism or merely a delay in the inevitable?

[IrishBlood]

I've recently read up on Poland in the interwar years, namely the wars/conflicts they had with virtually all of their neighbors, bar Romania, while attempting to secure as much Polish land (or land they considered Polish) as they possibly could in the aftermath of the collapse of the Austrian-Hungarian, German and Russian empires.

Here's the list;

• Polish Uprising/Silesian uprising against the Wiemar Republic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greate...18%E2%80%9319)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silesian_Uprisings

• War with Ukraine over eastern Poland/Western Ukraine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish...3Ukrainian_War

• War with Lithuania, mainly to claim Vilnius.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish...Lithuanian_War

• War with Czechoslovakia over some border territory with important rail hubs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish...echoslovak_War

• And most importantly, war with the Soviet Union, initially over western Ukraine, but eventually for Poland's very survival.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Soviet_War

While the other wars were pretty short, sharp affairs (with the notable exception if the war with Ukraine which was pretty vicious) the Polish-Soviet war was a winner take all clash of titans in comparison.

The war basically unfolded as follows,

• Poles crush Western Ukrainian nationalist forces, taking large swaths of territory, bringing them into conflict with Bolshevik forces advancing from the East

• The Poles launch a pre-emptive strike against the Bolsheviks as a major conflict seemed inevitable as Polish forces occupied large swaths of land claimed by the Soviets. The strike was initially successful and the Soviets fell back in disarray

• The Poles over extend themselves and the Soviets reorganize their forces and launch a massive counter attack that pushes the Poles all the way back to Warsaw.

• The Polish manage to pull off a massive encirclement and win a crushing victory at Warsaw, which combined with other important victories caused the soviet forces to collapse and retreat en mass.

• Both sides agree to peace as they are both exhausted, leaving Poland intact and retaining most of the territory they held before the outbreak of the Polish Soviet War.

Here are a few pictures to give you an idea of the size of territory being fought over.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Many consider the war to merely be an extension of the Russian Civil war, with the initial Polish invasion viewed as being orchestrated by the western powers. This is only partially true however as the Polish did not receive nearly as much help from the West as they would have liked and they also came into direct conflict with White Russian forces, who the West were backing in the Civil war. To the leaders of the Whites, Polish independence was anathema and they had every intention of conquering Poland if they were to win the civil war. The biggest reason for the war was a combination of the Polish leaderships desire to expand the ethnic borders of Poland to its maximum possible extent, while at the same time correctly assuming that war with the Soviets was inevitable.

The above is all background info, the purpose of this thread is to discuss just how important the Polish victory actually was.

There is a belief that had Poland lost, then Eastern Europe would basically have fallen to Communism. The Soviets under Lenin and Trotsky were very much focused on spreading revolution and Eastern and Central Europe was very fertile ground at the time. There were numerous communist/socialist/anarchist uprisings, particularly the pretty large scale Hungarian- Romanian war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungar...93Romanian_War) and the Spartacist uprising in Germany ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spartacist_uprising).

If the Soviets were to continue to invade other Eastern European countries after the potential fall of Poland, then they would have found plenty of supporters and a potential domino effect could have occurred.

However, in reality, this all happened twenty odd years later anyway in the aftermath of WW2 with the creation of the Warsaw Pact. So my question is, did the Polish victory actually achieve anything lasting, or was it merely delaying the inevitable?

[Abdülmecid I]

I personally doubt that a Soviet victory in Warsaw would have changed much outside Poland. The revolution in Germany had already been crushed by the Freikorps and the Social-Democrats, while any serious threat against the state's political stability had been eliminated, after the failure of the Kapp Putsch. In Hungary, the communists had also been overthrown after the Romanian invasion, although there's a strong chance that their regime would have imploded anyway. Considering all these recent blows the communist movement received in Poland's neighbors, the revolutionaries had no time to recover, to make any Soviet intervention worthwhile. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union was simply too exhausted, after years of fighting off the Whites and foreign armies, to effectively invade other countries and install friendly new governments. That is apparent by how easily the Soviets were defeated in Poland, despite their early successes. In that war, the Soviets had initially high morale, due to the fact that many regions, where Poles were an ethnic minority were included in the Polish state, while the alliance with reactionaries, like Peltura, threatened even the existence of the communist establishment.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Given the bias of the Czarist authorities, the map is definitely not 100% accurate, but the fact remains that Poland had annexed some clearly not very Polish territories.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

However, the leadership, influenced by her triumph, became greedy and continued to push for advance, despite Polish peace proposals, which resulted in the battle of Warsaw. However, as I said, the war was initially of defensive nature, which might be what encouraged the Soviets to attack, in order to expand their sphere of influence. Inevitably, the outcome of the war didn't change much, but even if the opposite happened, still nothing really important would have changed, in my opinion. Even the Jewish community, which was in danger of extinction, in case of Peltura prevailing in the conflict, since his factions was mainly busy with pogroms and massacres, eventually evaporated, during World War II, "thanks" to the efforts of the German occupiers and their Ukrainian collaborators.

[The Noble Lord]

I personally doubt that a Soviet victory in Warsaw would have changed much outside Poland. The revolution in Germany had already been crushed by the Freikorps and the Social-Democrats, while any serious threat against the state's political stability had been eliminated, after the failure of the Kapp Putsch. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union was simply too exhausted, after years of fighting off the Whites and foreign armies, to effectively invade other countries and install friendly new governments.

That pretty much explains it succinctly and correctly. If Soviets won at Warsaw they would't be able to continue forward and press on despite the excitement of their leadership.
They were exhausted and their supply lines were already breaking, and no way that they would've been even able to subdue Poland completely and let alone to push westward
and to threaten Germany and France!

If you read great Soviet writer Isaac Babel you will get the clear picture of the Soviet advance into Poland. He was advancing with the First Cavalry Army of Semyon Budyoni
and even before the battle of Warsaw the Red Army was at its breaking point!

[Salvo]

For me the answer is clear here. Poland stopped the Soviet march to the West – Period! There’s no even reason to discuss this statement.

The other thing is that it’s impossible to say if Poland saved Western Europe from Soviet domination, here we enter the area of guesses. Soviet’s could be for example unable to hold such large territory or would collapse after sudden internal fights etc, etc.

I think it was too early for Soviets to take over the Europe, but who knows, worker riots could start again, what would be a big issue here. But personally I don’t like guesses, because alternative history is limited only by our imagination and certain factors can be valued differently and depend too strong on Your point of view.

The above is all background info, the purpose of this thread is to discuss just how important the Polish victory actually was.

Battle of Warsaw stopped Soviet march on West. And it was a big deal, but here facts end

[Cyclops]

I think the victory had great meaning as it established a Polish state in a volatile region. The role of Poland in the lead up and opening of WWII in eastern Europe was critical.

I do agree with Abdulmecid (as usual, stop making sense please) the tide of post-war communist power-grabbing had exhausted itself in most of central Europe. Poland wasn't a the big domino that would topple capitalism from Vienna to Madrid, and the big doorstop was Germany which had a firmly established state system that survived WWI and the fall of the monarchy. I agree it is highly unlikely Germany would let the red tide sweep further west, and the Entente powers had shown a willingness to attack the Soviets on their home soil so they would surely have bolstered Germany. Everyone was scared of the Communists and revolution.

One nitpick, while the areas claimed by Poland were not very Polish, they were areas Polish states had ruled in the past, so there's a Kosovo/Istanbul effect in play.

That said the Communist state in Russia came to be squarely based around Great Russia and Moscow. Every large ethnic group west of Moscow shook loose of the old Tsarist Empire in the course of the civil war and only Ukraine was reconquered. In the crisis of WWII Stalin explicitly turned to the Great Russians as the core of his regime, and the "second class" status of Ukraine resulted in the horror of the Holomdor: we see this injustice played out among many ethnic minorities under Stalin.

I think the Soviet state had an opportunity to become more than a vehicle for Great Russian hegemony. It had a diverse leadership (some of whom suffered because of involvement in the losing attack on Poland). A victory in Poland might bring to the fore a different constellation of leaders, surely Trotsky's talent would have been there as it was IRL but perhaps Stalin's star might have been eclipsed. If The central Soviet had based its power across elites in Moscow, Kiev and Warsaw you might see a more powerful Soviet state. As I write this I find I doubt such a state would hang together, but a victory at Warsaw for the Reds would at least see the question asked and answered.

Fantasies about a less evil Soviet union aside, had a satellite Soviet regime been established in Poland (as it was in 1945) the Germany finds itself on the shore of a sea of red. The disarmed Weimar republic simply could not last. Germany would have to re-arm (perhaps with French and British consent) in 1924 not 1934, or die. Left right and centre might not dance around the constitution until their exhausted cynicism allowed an Austrian psychopath to storm to power, Germany would have a sharp focus of survival to spur them to unity.

If Germany was bordered by the "nice" Soviet Union there would a temptation to do a Bismarck and shake hands with the Bear/Eagle/whatever the national animal of Ukraine is, horse I guess? Bad news for France then.

However more likely they face the cruel Muscovite imperialist reds looking to Tsar it up on the Oder. I think in this case Germany is in for a Polish Deluge type conflict, domestic red insurgents and regular invasions from the east while receiving some support from her western neighbours.

WWII starts early in this case, as the Balkans is still not properly sorted out and there are scattered populations of Germans and others ripe for a nationalist appeal in war wearied Germany. maybe the horrible little Austrian storms to power anyway, and wrecks Germany even worse than IIRL.

I think the establishment of Poland put off the inevitable German Soviet war for ten or even twenty years. It was super important for Poland to win that battle, it hurt Lithuania and Germany somewhat (they stood to pick up some pieces I suppose) and gave the Soviets a blood nose and the patience to build up for a really big war.

One could argue the existence of Poland as a buffer in the east allowed a huge head of steam to build up, and make the war really catastrophic? Not sure about that though, and the Polish regime was not trying to create those conditions in any case.

[The Noble Lord]

For me the answer is clear here. Poland stopped the Soviet march to the West – Period! There’s no even reason to discuss this statement.

It did, but it was not a world changing victory. It was a mere delay in their march westward. In this case, after mere 24 years they steamrolled into heart of Europe anyway.

[Salvo]

24 years... well this is how old I am and despite the fact I think this time passed just way to fast...it's still an average generation shift. And one generation shift of peace is a huge thing for me.

Besides, look at Cyclop’s post. This victory allowed to stabilize the region. Polish defeat, even without Soviet march on West would result in chaos on the other side.
So even in these terms it was a big deal here.

It’s not anybody’s fault that this time allowed to grow a nazi cancer in Germany, while Soviets patiently prepared for another strike.
Still look what leviathan USSR was. Stopping it for 24 years doesn’t seem to be an ordinary action

And let’s remember that nobody said that Soviet victory wouldn’t spread revolution to other countries. It didn’t have to happen, but it surely could