Armenia and Azerbaijan on the verge of war. Fresh clashes left at least 30 dead.

[Papay]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35949991

Dozens of people have been killed in clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the disputed Caucasus region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Armenia said 18 ethnic-Armenian soldiers had died in the fighting, among the worst in two decades.
Azerbaijan said it had lost 12 troops and there were unconfirmed reports of civilian deaths on both sides.
Nagorno-Karabakh has been in the hands of ethnic-Armenian separatists since a war that ended in 1994.

Russia, which has sold arms to both sides, called for an immediate ceasefire and for both sides to exercise restraint.
Azerbaijan said its armed forces had come under fire first from large-calibre artillery and grenade-launchers, and that it had taken over two strategic hills and a village.
The Armenian government said Azerbaijan had launched a "massive attack" with tanks, artillery and helicopters.
The Armenian-backed defence ministry in Karabakh said a 12-year-old boy had been killed and two other children injured.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has spoken with his Armenian and Azeri counterparts - Seyran Ohanyan and Zakir Hasanov - by phone, Interfax reported, in an effort to calm the situation.
Fighting between the two sides began in the late 1980s and escalated into full-scale war in 1991 as the Soviet Union collapsed, killing about 30,000 people before a ceasefire in 1994.
The region, which lies inside Azerbaijan but is controlled by ethnic Armenians, has since run its own affairs with Armenian military and financial backing, but clashes break out on a regular basis.

Yes because the area did not had already many wars. These clashes are the worst since 1994

[IrishBlood]

This could well be the next big conflict folks!

It seems that fresh fighting erupted on the borders of the Armenian enclave. Of course, both sides at blaming the other, but it appears the Azeris may have gotten the worst of it with an Armenian official claiming that they shot down an Azeri helicopter that was attacking their positions.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/0...084508361.html

This conflict has been bubbling away for decades now, but it seems it may be reaching boiling point.

In recent months there has been a serious arms build up in the region with Russia and Iran supporting Armenia and Turkey and the USA supporting Azerbaijan.

Do you guys think this may just be one more border skirmish or could this be the first shots of a full scale war?

Also, how do you think such a war would influence other conflicts such as the war in Syria and the PKk insurgency in Turkey?

[Mary The Quene]

hmm

Probably just a skirmish :/

I don't think conventional wars between two opposing nations is going to erupt again soon i think.

[Stavroforos]

A war in Europe in 2016? Seems impossible.

[IrishBlood]

Pretty big clash for just a skirmish!

According to this BBC link (which I shamelessly stole from Papays thread as we seem to have created one at basically the same time!) the Azerbaijani military have occupied two villages on high terrain.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35949991

If the Armenians make a concerted effort to retake those villages then this skirmish could well escalated into a full scale battle.

@Stavoforos

Yeah but this is Europe's wild eastern frontier, anything goes!

[Flavius Julius Nepos Augustus]

Why is the US in support of Azeris?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armeni...zerbaijani_War
These guys never loved each other. Some months ago I saw a video of artillary strikes. I don't think they want full scale war but they increase in activity last years is worrying. Also ... maybe the Turks vs Russians not only want to start bullying each other on Crimea and Syria but also here

[athanaric]

Why is the US in support of Azeris?

Because they love repeating their mistakes?

[Abdülmecid I]

Why is the US in support of Azeris?

Frankly, because they are more relevant than the Armenians and their interests are often in accordance with America's. Azerbaijan is filthy rich in natural gas (which also helps, in a similar to a Gulf Monarchy example, the Aliyevid dynasty to remain in power), it's also obviously in very friendly terms with Turkey, a considerable military and economic power, with a long membership in NATO, and has also a sour relationship with Iran, due to the presence of the Azeri minority around Tabriz. Some years ago, there was even a debate of changing its name to "Northern Azerbaijan", in a thinly veiled effort to publicize its expansionist claims on NW Iran. It's a very controversial issue, even Azeri nationalists are divided between these that endorse revisionism and consider the Safavids as an Azeri empire and those that view themselves as Iranians and would even wish for their country to be annexed.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/02/02/...to-annoy-iran/

Additionally, Azerbaijan shares a common border with Russia. Therefore, the alliance between the US and Azerbaijan is a natural product of these factors. The relatively coldness between the US and Armenia is also explained by that, since there's nothing to separate them, apart from the fact that their enemy is America's friend.

Because they love repeating their mistakes?

Why is it a mistake? I personally find that specific part of the US foreign policy very reasonable.

[Heathen Hammer]

One of the main factors behind such conflicts in ex-USSR is that post-Soviet borders are entirely artificial and aren't based on ethnic or cultural divide. Soviet "republics" were drawn up on purely resource-based reasoning, which is why we have conflicts today in Donbass, Nagornyj Karabah, South Osetia and Abkhazia, and so on and so forth. Sometimes, with a huge push form Moscow, they manage to "freeze" those conflicts, but it would only be a temporary measure.
Will there be a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan? I doubt Azeris would have much to gain, since its not hard to predict that Russia would rather side with Armenia. However, we also have Turkey which would most likely back Azeris, so it could go into a full on proxy military conflict.

[Prodromos]

Where do you get that America is on Azerbaijan's side?

In 1992, the U.S. Congress adopted Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, which banned any direct US aid to the government of Azerbaijan. The ban made Azerbaijan the only exception to the Post-Soviet states receiving US government aid for facilitating economic and political stability.[12] Passage of Section 907 was influenced by the powerful Armenian American lobby in the U.S. Congress,[13] in response to the blockade imposed by Azerbaijan on Armenia in the course of the Nagorno-Karabakh War. Azerbaijanis consider this legislation to be unfair as, during the same period of time, Armenian forces took control of the fifth of Azerbaijani territory, including Nagorno-Karabakh.[14] Consecutive George H.W. Bush, Clinton and George W. Bush administrations opposed Section 907,[15] viewing it as an impediment to impartial US foreign policy in the region and an obstacle to the US role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict mediation efforts.

[IrishBlood]

Putin has condemned the violence and has called for both sides to calm the hell down.


https://news.vice.com/article/putin-...rce=vicenewsfb

Russia sells arms and has strong economic links to both sides, so the current situation of them hating each other and constantly building their militaries suites him much better than I they were actually to go to war.

[Linke]

Russians as far as I know have had their influence in Baku increasing for some time now, it's certainly not the next proxy conflict in a new cold war at the moment

[Papay]

Well when USSR collapsed, russians created a series of "holes" in the new independent countries to cancel any annexation from the west. The fact that Moldavia doesnt control transnistria, Georgia doesnt control Abchazia and South Osseta, Azerbaijan doesnt control Nagorno Karambakh and ukraine doesnt control Crimea and Donbass means that these countries cannot enter EU and NATO and these conflicts will only be solved with these countries re-enter Eurasian Union

[tiepilot98]

Post-Soviet territory has many "Frozen Conflicts". Nagorno-Karabakh region is one of them.

Why is the US in support of Azeris?

US don't support them. I didn't hear about US' statement in this conflict.

[snuggans]

Putin has condemned the violence and has called for both sides to calm the hell down.


https://news.vice.com/article/putin-...rce=vicenewsfb

Russia sells arms and has strong economic links to both sides, so the current situation of them hating each other and constantly building their militaries suites him much better than I they were actually to go to war.

it's like a drug dealer telling people to sober up

[sumskilz]

The relatively coldness between the US and Armenia is also explained by that, since there's nothing to separate them, apart from the fact that their enemy is America's friend.

Everything is accurate in your post I think, but because the US has no real issue with Armenia (as you point out), there has been an effort to remain neutral in this conflict (as Dr. Legend pointed out).

[Sire Brenshar]

Europe, providing they can muster any sort of coherent foreign policy, and the US by nature of looking after their allies interests, are natural partners for Azerbaijan since they run gas to Turkey and Europe. And furthermore that pipeline can eventually extend to Uzbekistan and other central Asian countries, which would go some way towards circumventing Russia's gas monopoly and decreasing Russian influence across the region.

Point is contrary to what most people will be assuming this can really be a big deal, though personally I wouldnt expect a major war to break out. Likewise I doubt the involvement of any foreign troops or any kind of direct support from anywhere (if a general war did emerge), at most Russia and Turkey would have advisors or agents closely monitering the situation from the ground and the US and EU would give only token political support.

[Flavius Julius Nepos Augustus]

http://news.az/articles/politics/105863

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet in Ankara on March 15.

Coincidence?

[Roma_Victrix]

http://news.az/articles/politics/105863


Coincidence?

No. There is no coincidence at all. Move along folks. There is nothing to see here.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Hail Hydra.

[Mithridates II the Great]

Maybe returning to the motherland is the solution so that they both have that region in their country and stop killing eachother .