Labour Leadership Contest - Private Polls suggest possible Corbyn lead.

[Napoleonic Bonapartism]

According to the New Statesman private polling, said to be from two rival leadership campaigns, puts Corbyn on a possible 15 point lead. Corbyn already has 40 nominations from local parties, only 8 less than Burnham. The original article is here: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics...rship-election

Polls certainly aren't as trusted as they used to be in the wake of the election... I find it possible, but likely inflated - the explanation offered by the New Statesman seems plausible however, because, in addition to his several Trade Union endorsements, including Unite: "It appears as if the Islington North MP's strength is largely coming from new and younger members. One CLP chair believes that "more than two thirds" of new recruits since the election are supporters of Corbyn, a finding mirrored by the leadership campaigns' experience of phoning new members. It also appears as if many members from the party's right have abandoned the party during the years of Ed Miliband, being replaced by what one staffer describes as "true believers"."

There have also been suggestions within the Burnham and Cooper campaigns that Kendall's campaign is responsible for the leak, but Kendall insiders have denied this. Is it all simply a Machiavellian plot by another campaign to scare all the party in Burnham's arms? In any case, the Telegraph has jumped right on board, suggesting, to the savage criticism of its comment section, that readers should sign up to the Labour Party and vote for Corbyn. The whole affair is rife with Machiavellian plots, possibly from both within and without Labour. So, is it to be believed, or is it a plot by either a rival campaign or a Telegraph sleeper agent? Or simply bad polling...

[Azog 150]

I've been meaning to reply to this but never got around to it.

I will be voting Corbyn with my union paying the fee on my behalf.

What I find amusing about the whole debacle is that the Blairites are up in arms and dismissing Corbyn as an 80's socialist throw back while seemingly failing to grasp that it's not the 1990's either. Either way I think there is already something to be said for Corbyn in terms of shifting the Labour debate leftwards, and if he is to win, regardless of whether he goes on to win the 2020 election (I am not convinced that any of the four will bring a 2020 Labour victory- Blairite or not), the national debate will also be shifted leftwards back towards the centre.

I am also loving the hubris displayed by certain Tories. I thought this was a fairly interesting piece on how a 2020 Corbyn general election victory could be possible:

http://wire.novaramedia.com/2015/07/...eral-election/

Fact is times are increasingly unpredictable, and let it not be forgotten that there were Labour supporters cheering when Margaret Thatcher took over the Conservative Party as they also thought it would confine the Tories to the history books. How wrong they were. Then if you look at how close run the Scottish referendum came which had Unionist politicians running scared towards the end when it had previously been dismissed as easily in the bag (on a side note I think only a Corbyn victory will stand a chance of keeping the Union together). Not to mention the complete failure of nearly every single polling company to predict the last General election result.

We have five more years of Tory austerity on a wafer thin majority yet to go, and potentially another economic crisis is in the making. They barley managed to increase their vote share in the last general election (up 0.8% from 2010) and that was under favourable conditions in terms of the wipe-out of the Lib Dems and the fragmentation of opposition votes. So a Tory 2020 victory is far from certain, and a proper opposition is desperately needed which I think only Corbyn can really provide.

One other thing I will say, aside from getting younger generations interested, Corbyn is also reaching out to those who otherwise completely dismiss politics and politicians (I work with a lot of them!!).

[Heinz Guderian]

I think Corbyn is a stand up guy. I like him more since weasel war crim Blair hates him. Would be willing to switch my vote to Labour if he gets the nod.

[Condottiere 40K]

The political landscape may be different four years down the road.

Also, there will be a change of leadership in the Conservative Party.

He may look saner than Boris.
278

[Kyriakos]

So, is Corbyn something close to the cool (RIP) Tony Benn?

[Pielstick]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-10441692.html

Some interesting shenanigans going on. It looks like the old school left are trying to wrest control of the Labour party back from the Blairites.

[Napoleonic Bonapartism]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-10441692.html

Some interesting shenanigans going on. It looks like the old school left are trying to wrest control of the Labour party back from the Blairites.

The Trotskyite wreckers!

To be fair though, the Green Party needs to be won over to Corbyn - it's one of the demographics he'll be going for, and this is evidence he might be winning them over - in the end however, it might boil down to how strong their party loyalty is. Now he needs a way to get back some UKIP voters, something he's mentioned a few times, but that'll be a sterner challenge.

[Pielstick]

If Corbyn wants to win back the "red UKIP" vote he'll have to come out against open borders with the EU.

Now technically speaking, if he really is old school left in the same vein as Bob Crow et al, he should be opposed to both the level and type of immigration the UK has seen since 1997.

[caratacus]

Amazing isn't it! that probably the biggest issue on the political horizon is the EU referendum, and yet it has hardly been mentioned by any of these candidates.

Corbyn is really not that different from any member of Labour's shadow cabinet in that respect. The Party has been lurching to the Left since the defeat of Brown's government but it is far from reinventing itself into something which will win the trust of the British people, whether left or right inclined. Obfuscation on an issue as important as the EU referendum, just demonstrates that whoever becomes leader, its still the same old Labour party.

[Azog 150]

Corbyn has already come out as saying he will be reluctantly pushing to remain in the EU, with an eye on getting properly involved in the EU to push for democratic EU reform. That pretty much chimes with my position. I will admit that the recent Greek crisis had me doubting whether or not I would vote to remain in the EU. But I still look at our position in the EU as much the same way as Scotland within the Union. Voting to leave is irreversible, voting to stay most certainly is not if things don't go our way. We are in the fortunate position to be a major EU economy that is not tied down by the Eurozone.

The fact is though, the EU just doesn't really register that high on the public radar (UKIP or otherwise). Related issues such as immigration certainly do. But the EU itself? It doesn't seem to be talked about that much. You would be hard pressed to find a large number of UKIP supporters who support UKIP because they want out of the EU, compared to the number of UKIP supporters who support UKIP because they want tighter immigration controls.

Austerity meanwhile is in most peoples minds a far more pressing agenda (even if you can draw links with the austerity agenda also being driven by the Eurozone).

[Markas]

So, is Corbyn something close to the cool (RIP) Tony Benn?

They were friends and colleagues, yeah.

Interesting how pretty much everyone I hate is coming out against Corbyn, which makes me more inclined to vote Labour. It's funny how it was initially a three horse race until Margaret Beckett suggested Corbyn to broaden the debate and he ended up making the others look like pale three-legged nags. I think people are surprised to have someone with actual pronounced ethics (no matter if they agree with them or not) and not 'grey man in grey suit#382653'. God knows we need them after the criminal activities of the banks and massive subsequent bailout from the public purse. Regulate the , I say. It's the only way they'll learn.

[Lazzeer]

I think the real question for a Corbyn leadership will be over what policies he keeps and which he ditches (or downplays). Take NATO for instance - I understand he's opposed to continued membership, but this could scare off certain people (like me) who may be attracted to him due to other policies (voting reform, for myself). Ditching certain policies however could mean ditching some voters.

Corbyn has already come out as saying he will be reluctantly pushing to remain in the EU, with an eye on getting properly involved in the EU to push for democratic EU reform. That pretty much chimes with my position. I will admit that the recent Greek crisis had me doubting whether or not I would vote to remain in the EU. But I still look at our position in the EU as much the same way as Scotland within the Union. Voting to leave is irreversible, voting to stay most certainly is not if things don't go our way. We are in the fortunate position to be a major EU economy that is not tied down by the Eurozone.

The fact is though, the EU just doesn't really register that high on the public radar (UKIP or otherwise). Related issues such as immigration certainly do. But the EU itself? It doesn't seem to be talked about that much. You would be hard pressed to find a large number of UKIP supporters who support UKIP because they want out of the EU, compared to the number of UKIP supporters who support UKIP because they want tighter immigration controls.

Austerity meanwhile is in most peoples minds a far more pressing agenda (even if you can draw links with the austerity agenda also being driven by the Eurozone).

A tad off-topic, but I think the democratization of Europe is an interesting, and actually misleadingly tricky business. A core part of the evolution of Europe should naturally be making the role of President of the Commission a directly elected - rather than appointed - position. This, ironically however, can also potentially undermine the legitimacy of the position in certain regards, as countries which don't vote for the President may feel like they are powerless - in the same way many Scots feels their votes ultimately have no impact in Westminster. There's a real chicken-or-the-egg question about whether democratization would create the kind of European demos required to sustain it, or whether we first need a European demos (where people see it as voting as Europe, instead of voting as Spaniards/Germans/etc) before we can have full democratization.

Any idea what Corbyn thinks about this? He more a "democracy now" kinda fella?

[caratacus]

Corbyn has already come out as saying he will be reluctantly pushing to remain in the EU, with an eye on getting properly involved in the EU to push for democratic EU reform. That pretty much chimes with my position. I will admit that the recent Greek crisis had me doubting whether or not I would vote to remain in the EU. But I still look at our position in the EU as much the same way as Scotland within the Union. Voting to leave is irreversible, voting to stay most certainly is not if things don't go our way. We are in the fortunate position to be a major EU economy that is not tied down by the Eurozone.

The fact is though, the EU just doesn't really register that high on the public radar (UKIP or otherwise). Related issues such as immigration certainly do. But the EU itself? It doesn't seem to be talked about that much. You would be hard pressed to find a large number of UKIP supporters who support UKIP because they want out of the EU, compared to the number of UKIP supporters who support UKIP because they want tighter immigration controls.

Austerity meanwhile is in most peoples minds a far more pressing agenda (even if you can draw links with the austerity agenda also being driven by the Eurozone).

You are kidding! the first issue that comes to mind with many folk with regard to the EU is open borders. It is the same issue that has enabled thousands of migrants to cross the Med and be camped at Calais. But those who say anything are placed into the anti immigration camp. UKIP is not anti immigration, it wants Britain to keep controls on its borders, that isn't the same. By distorting the debate to be one of immigration, politicians have actually made the system bias towards low skilled labour and far too restrictive on high skilled labour from outside the EU.

If Corbyn is for a greater level of democracy, as the left claims, he should have a cynical view with regard to the EU. But the Left love big government, they always have and accountability is only an issue supported when they are in opposition.

I'm sorry you think that "will be reluctantly pushing to remain in the EU, with an eye on getting properly involved in the EU to push for democratic EU reform" is a clear policy objective. Its just a non committal wishy washy statement of intent to me.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

You are kidding! the first issue that comes to mind with many folk with regard to the EU is open borders. It is the same issue that has enabled thousands of migrants to cross the Med and be camped at Calais. But those who say anything are placed into the anti immigration camp. UKIP is not anti immigration, it wants Britain to keep controls on its borders, that isn't the same. By distorting the debate to be one of immigration, politicians have actually made the system bias towards low skilled labour and far too restrictive on high skilled labour from outside the EU.

If Corbyn is for a greater level of democracy, as the left claims, he should have a cynical view with regard to the EU. But the Left love big government, they always have and accountability is only an issue supported when they are in opposition.

I'm sorry you think that "will be reluctantly pushing to remain in the EU, with an eye on getting properly involved in the EU to push for democratic EU reform" is a clear policy objective. Its just a non committal wishy washy statement of intent to me.

I don't know here Caratacus. I'd mirror Azog in that the EU isn't really 'important' to your average Brit- as seen in the amount of people either pro-eu now or indifferent to it:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/24...m-record-lead/

45% in favour and rising, compared to 35%- and there are a few other places that seem to share the 'don't give a ' at around 20-25%.

Immigration though is something that's important... but isn't really seen to be seen through the 'EU' lens:

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.a...-level-concern

Though again here we have the strange point that actually Immigration is now only the '3rd' most important political...thing to your average Britain. The main two are the economy (In First place) and the Health Service (Newly made second- and that's quite recently).

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/15...mportant-issu/

I think its interesting too (and probably correlates with what we're discussing here) that immigration and the EU are both factors largely dependent on the 'feel good' factor for your average person- if the British economy is doing well (as its being touted as) or re-building (As is closer to the point probably) then people care less and less about those two subjects. If it goes tits up again, we see a surge in Immigration becoming an issue again (Alongside the EU) as their influence on the economy becomes more of a factor (When we're doing well- there's a surplus of work typically for the majority- thus immigrants become a 'meh').

It's interesting though that Labour seem to be heading towards the Corbyn and his style of traditional leftie experience. In a way i'm glad as it means the political spectrum and center will become well...more 'Central' again as opposed to technically 'Right' as it is now. But also, am i the only one who does totally feel that the Unions (and here they'll i'll argue regain a great degree of influence with Corbyn) will become once more a total protectionist nuisance (again?) and thus set back the UK in terms of a growing modern economy further? I'm beginning to dislike the typically traditional labour touting of 'Britain was once great at manufacturing- we should be competing out there again with Germany and India'- when it doesn't take into account that's when we had the Empire and all the benefits that came with it. 'Getting back to manufacturing' and the expansion of that sector should mean the UK getting more and more into R&D of high-tech and future tech industries...something which the more powerful Trade Union lobbies seem not to really care much about, and indeed obstruct. I'm talking about here the development of Green Tech (Which Cameron is effectively destroying the UK's potential lead in for a growing market...well done Tories...), or Aerospace (Which again Cameron to be fair has also had a slash at hampering what could be a very lucrative market for the UK).

So not sure how i feel about this. I'd also be worried that we'll see a polarized 'Two-Party' system potentially re-emerge here- with Tories for the Right and Labour for the Left that will dominate and prevent the modernization of British politics to reflect better the variety of policies and beliefs the average populace has. The rise of the smaller parties like SNP, Greens, and UKIP reflect the opportunity for a move towards a better form of direct democracy (If we get the damn voting reforms debated) with larger accountability than the former two parties who effectively didn't have to try, because they knew they could rely on a captive percentage of the population.

[Lazzeer]

It's interesting though that Labour seem to be heading towards the Corbyn and his style of traditional leftie experience. In a way i'm glad as it means the political spectrum and center will become well...more 'Central' again as opposed to technically 'Right' as it is now. But also, am i the only one who does totally feel that the Unions (and here they'll i'll argue regain a great degree of influence with Corbyn) will become once more a total protectionist nuisance (again?) and thus set back the UK in terms of a growing modern economy further? I'm beginning to dislike the typically traditional labour touting of 'Britain was once great at manufacturing- we should be competing out there again with Germany and India'- when it doesn't take into account that's when we had the Empire and all the benefits that came with it. 'Getting back to manufacturing' and the expansion of that sector should mean the UK getting more and more into R&D of high-tech and future tech industries...something which the more powerful Trade Union lobbies seem not to really care much about, and indeed obstruct. I'm talking about here the development of Green Tech (Which Cameron is effectively destroying the UK's potential lead in for a growing market...well done Tories...), or Aerospace (Which again Cameron to be fair has also had a slash at hampering what could be a very lucrative market for the UK).

Yeah I made this point over in the Academy (great minds). There's this assumption that a Corbyn win would automatically ensure a 1983 style win for the Tories, but broadening the center would likely make the Tories look far more right-wing as a result, which may not be in their interests.

So not sure how i feel about this. I'd also be worried that we'll see a polarized 'Two-Party' system potentially re-emerge here- with Tories for the Right and Labour for the Left that will dominate and prevent the modernization of British politics to reflect better the variety of policies and beliefs the average populace has. The rise of the smaller parties like SNP, Greens, and UKIP reflect the opportunity for a move towards a better form of direct democracy (If we get the damn voting reforms debated) with larger accountability than the former two parties who effectively didn't have to try, because they knew they could rely on a captive percentage of the population.

Agreed. I did a bit of searching though and found a clip of Corbyn being asked about electoral reform on Youtube (guy sounds like Phillip from Terrance and Phillip though), where Corbyn advocates holding a constitutional convention which would include discussion of voting reform (which sounds good to me).

[Kyriakos]

Seems like an interesting and soft-spoken person. I am quite impressed



(btw, journalists are crap everywhere)

[Shaun]

A Corbyn victory would be a bit of a disaster for British politics. It's not that this politics are vile, but they simply do not represent enough of the populace for a party under his leadership to be able to represent enough of the country to form a genuine opposition. There'd be no-one to keep the Tories in check, something very dangerous given that we're steering closer towards two-party politics (see: the demise of the Lib Dems). In fact, given what we're hearing about who wouldn't serve in a Corbyn cabinet, and his own voting record, it seems like he might have trouble keeping his own party in check.

I could actually envisage the Labour party splitting in two, regardless of who wins this contest. I just don't see enough common ground between the Blairites and those who are more Old Labour to remain in the same party any more.

[Kyriakos]

A Corbyn victory would be a bit of a disaster for British politics. It's not that this politics are vile, but they simply do not represent enough of the populace for a party under his leadership to be able to represent enough of the country to form a genuine opposition. There'd be no-one to keep the Tories in check, something very dangerous given that we're steering closer towards two-party politics (see: the demise of the Lib Dems). In fact, given what we're hearing about who wouldn't serve in a Corbyn cabinet, and his own voting record, it seems like he might have trouble keeping his own party in check.

I could actually envisage the Labour party splitting in two, regardless of who wins this contest. I just don't see enough common ground between the Blairites and those who are more Old Labour to remain in the same party any more.

On the other hand Corbyn would likely be able to form a coalition with SNP and/or take some votes from there.

[Shaun]

On the other hand Corbyn would likely be able to form a coalition with SNP and/or take some votes from there.

No he wouldn't. He still represents the Union - an anathema to the SNP.

[Azog 150]

A Corbyn victory would be a bit of a disaster for British politics. It's not that this politics are vile, but they simply do not represent enough of the populace for a party under his leadership to be able to represent enough of the country to form a genuine opposition. There'd be no-one to keep the Tories in check, something very dangerous given that we're steering closer towards two-party politics (see: the demise of the Lib Dems). In fact, given what we're hearing about who wouldn't serve in a Corbyn cabinet, and his own voting record, it seems like he might have trouble keeping his own party in check.

I could actually envisage the Labour party splitting in two, regardless of who wins this contest. I just don't see enough common ground between the Blairites and those who are more Old Labour to remain in the same party any more.

The way I see it is Corbyn is the only candidate who would lead a proper opposition. You only have to look at the farce that was the Labour abstention from the welfare bill to see this. I think he would certainly provide a better opposition then the wet flannels that are Burnham and Cooper and the not-quite-a-Tory Kendall.

The issue is with, as you say, how the Blairite wing of the party will react. But if history tells us anything, it's that most of these career politicians are too gutless to break the party whip. I know my local MP has never once broken the whip since she was floated into her safe seat in 1997. I don't know how they would justify to their constituents (many of whom will be favourable to Corbyn) beginning to break the whip under Corbyn. However he has shown he is more then willing to extend his hand to the Blairites, so the ball is really in their court.

However I am interested by your comment that the party under his leadership would not represent enough of the country to form a genuine opposition. What do you mean by this? Polls show that many of Corbyns policies (e.g. rail renationalisation, utilities renationalisation etc) hold majority support, even among Conservative voters, and in particular his staunch opposition to privatization of the NHS will be increasingly important and popular.

Of course most of the opposition provided by Corbyn will be on the subject of austerity. That is trickier as it involves changing current dogma, but I think it's a debate that is vitally important we have.

If Corbyn is for a greater level of democracy, as the left claims, he should have a cynical view with regard to the EU. But the Left love big government, they always have and accountability is only an issue supported when they are in opposition.

I'm sorry you think that "will be reluctantly pushing to remain in the EU, with an eye on getting properly involved in the EU to push for democratic EU reform" is a clear policy objective. Its just a non committal wishy washy statement of intent to me.

From what I have seen he most definitely is cynical of the EU.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhl6AoaBZwA