The British EU Referendum: In or Out

[Principe Alessandro]

The terms by which Britain and the European Union will trade remain to be seen. It is probable that the next Prime Minister, depending on who it is, will insist on the suspension of the free movement of peoples. That being said, neither the government nor the peoples are naive enough to imagine that the European Union won't make demands in return for any such suspension.

You just have to look at Switzerland as an example:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-br...source=twitter

Simply speaking the EU gives access to the common market only in exchange of free movement of people otherwise it just makes little sense because non EU countries get a better deal than the full EU members.

[Modestus]

I strongly agree with this. Britain should have been the leader of the "Northern Alliance" of competitive nations who strive for an open market and a minimum of subsidies. Instead Britain have pretty much acted like a psychotic girlfriend who constantly threaten to leave the relationship and then get surprised when she is not included in your vacation plans.

With Brexit there are now only two options left:

1) Britain leave and get shafted in the negotiations. I never quite understood how cynical the rules for leaving the EU are but they are essentially designed so that the leaving country either have to agree to the terms set by the EU within two years or end up lacking a huge number of vital agreements. For the UK this most likely mean that they might get free trade but have restricted access to the financial markets. This is effectively a long term death sentence for further growth in the UK financial industry which will have extremely negative long term effects on the UK.

2) Britain remain as no competent politician is willing to lead them out of the EU. This could work out surprisingly well if you have a leader who is daring enough for the Brexiters to make even more fools out of themselves and then state that as it was only an advisory referendum and that it is time for Britain to take a more active role in the EU as it is clear that UK cannot leave it in good shape.

Cynical is the wrong word, it is common enough that any organisation does not allow a member that decides to leave to disrupt the remaining members and it certainly does not allow someone that leaves to retain the exact same privileges that it had as a member otherwise having an organisation in the first place makes no sense.

From what I can gather the negotiations will be extremely complicated and torturous taking years.

https://constitution-unit.com/2016/0...-leave-the-eu/



Logic would dictate that they would stay and ignore the wishes of those that clearly had no idea what they were voting for beyond a belief that Britain is great, a belief not unlike their belief in the greatness of the English football team.

[ShockBlast]

Britain voted to join a trading bloc not a European superstate!

One of those days you will develop the ability to grasp the fact that EU`s goal is to become federation not an unitary state.

I don`t care what you think UK was joining.
There was never a secret in which direction EEC was heading, there was never a hidden agenda for achieving a federation down the road, it was WRITTEN the in FOUNDING act in 1958.

[Iskar]

Except that the 'reformed' EU is likely to be an EU superstate which Britain will never be part of. In fairness we would probably never have been part of it anyway even if it had gone ahead while we were in it. But still, Britain has now left in the most damaging way possible at the worst possible time. I actually am not a huge fan of the EU and I don't think Britain would have remained part of it for long, I voted Remain mainly because I thought voting Remain was the lesser of two evils (also because I didn't want to hand over the UK to a hard right cabal unfettered by the generally centrist EU consensus).

I think that if the EU tries to become less centralised on the other hand, as is also possible, it will not be enough, and will lead to the breakup of the Union, perhaps just a reversion to the EEC. In the short and medium term, that may be fair enough, but in the long term, I think that will make Europe as a whole unable to compete in global power terms with rising developing world great powers, and who knows what that might lead to. Refugees will never destroy Europe - Europeans outnumber Middle Easterners by 2 to 1 and besides, the Middle East problems won't last forever, and many refugees will return there. This is even more the case as regards African migrants: Africa is rising, the time will probably come when young Europeans end up migrating there rather than the other way around in search of jobs (in 100 years or so).

As others have already pointed out, a superstate is not the intended or even necessary endgame of the EU. You can have arbitrarily high levels of regional and national autonomy in a federally constituted entity. You know, Germany, for instance, works like a charm with a federal system in which the regional parliaments (the Landtage) have a rather large amount of freedom in domestic affairs, economy and education, while also having influence on national legislation via the secondary chamber of parliament (the Bundesrat). There is no reason this should not be scalable to the European level.

I strongly agree with this. Britain should have been the leader of the "Northern Alliance" of competitive nations who strive for an open market and a minimum of subsidies. Instead Britain have pretty much acted like a psychotic girlfriend who constantly threaten to leave the relationship and then get surprised when she is not included in your vacation plans.

With Brexit there are now only two options left:

1) Britain leave and get shafted in the negotiations. I never quite understood how cynical the rules for leaving the EU are but they are essentially designed so that the leaving country either have to agree to the terms set by the EU within two years or end up lacking a huge number of vital agreements. For the UK this most likely mean that they might get free trade but have restricted access to the financial markets. This is effectively a long term death sentence for further growth in the UK financial industry which will have extremely negative long term effects on the UK.

2) Britain remain as no competent politician is willing to lead them out of the EU. This could work out surprisingly well if you have a leader who is daring enough for the Brexiters to make even more fools out of themselves and then state that as it was only an advisory referendum and that it is time for Britain to take a more active role in the EU as it is clear that UK cannot leave it in good shape.

Aye, quite so. For the latter point they will need snap elections, though, as only a victory of expressly pro-EU parties would legitimise ignoring the referendum.

[ShockBlast]

Aye, quite so. For the latter point they will need snap elections, though, as only a victory of expressly pro-EU parties would legitimise ignoring the referendum.

EU already activated plan B - push UK out and kickstart the federalisation process.
EU will not wait around 3 months for UK to decide.

Besides, EU accepting UK to stomp over the referendum would bring far more negative effects than UK is worth.

The only viable, and accepted way, is for UK to quit and reapply later and become a member of a federal EU.

[RNV]

I think we have to recap a bit what's happening to put things in perspective:
1) UK is in political chaos, but that doesn't really matter as the stock market is going very well (thanks pound devaluation) and the british economy will be fine. In face to those that "Brexti wil bring grasshoppers" etc. The political situation will be solved after politicians realize things are better than expected.

2) Electoral fraud was committed by the pro-EU field in Austria, leading to new elections (we'll see who wins but it would surprise me if Austrians vote for a guy who frauded the elections). This is fueling eurosceptics throughout europe, don't know if Britain is hearing it under it's internal strife.

3) Czech republic wants a Czechferendum on the EU.

4) Netherlands will be probably asking for a referendum under internal pressure. Polls show a distinct advantage of leave it seems... for what polls are worth.

5) Italy was the first country to use the new EU weakness and asked (and was granted) a special fund to save banks (not the right kind of fund but it's something), eurosceptics in Italy are moving and campaign strongly to quit the euro.

6) There are weak rumors of frauds in Spain, might be a consequence of the Austrian vote: every pro-EU vote is now watched with suspect.

I think what Soros said, "the dissolution of the EU is now irreversible", is manifesting itself. Britain will be fine as its relative position towards the contintent will not change and we will finally be out of this long and tiring stagnation inside a fundamentally neo-feudal project.

The pandora pot was opened by the britons. It's over. A system that risks collapse at every election in any country can't last long. Especially if they have to resolve it through blatant frauds like in Austria. Thank you UK, you truly are the land of courage!

[|Sith|Galvanized Iron]

As the title says. Stock market is doing great in Britain. Meanwhile the EU stock markets haven't recovered. This shows that the Bremainers all lied about some terrible economical crash, which I already of course knew. Anyway debate this if you wish, I am just happy to spread the good word.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business/markets/europe/lse_ukx

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36681794

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mar...injection.html

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/cit...k-after-Brexit

[Vladyvid]

No I meant Europe but to be safe he could get a rocket and leave the planet, I have no time for people who call refugees barbarians.

LOL! So I should leave Europe because I call the barbarians barbarians? They come from the uncivilized parts of the world and that makes them barbarians you know. They come from places where people are stoned to death, where young girls are being mutilated and sold to their "husbands", where religion is the main reason for mischief and suffering of millions, where people still have medieval mindset. So yeah, not barbarians at all? They ARE barbarians! I will stay however, and my country will not accept them in our borders because nobody sane wants them here and nobody will force us!
Let all of them go to your country and it up, you may even accept them into your own house for all I care. Feed them, cloth them and get yourself blasted to pieces when they or their children decide that you are an evil infidel. Perfect end for all barbarian lovers.

[Basil II the B.S]

the remain field relied on fearmongering before the referendum and still insists on that

[ShockBlast]

I don`t know what you people are smoking but article 50 hasn`t been triggered, for all intents and purposes UK is full member of EU.

Of course the market would rebound, you are trying to sell the recovery after the huge fall caused the result of the referendum as real growth ?

The party has yet to start.

[Abdülmecid I]

LOL! So I should leave Europe because I call the barbarians barbarians? They come from the uncivilized parts of the world and that makes them barbarians you know. They come from places where people are stoned to death, where young girls are being mutilated and sold to their "husbands", where religion is the main reason for mischief and suffering of millions, where people still have medieval mindset. So yeah, not barbarians at all? They ARE barbarians! I will stay however, and my country will not accept them in our borders because nobody sane wants them here and nobody will force us!

In reality, however, stoning to death and genital mutilation are non-existent in Syria, by far the largest source of refugees and have a tiny presence in Iraq, not to mention that no refugee has been blamed for a terrorist attack yet. On the other hand, being prejudiced and considering fellow humans, solely based on their ethnicity and religion as barbarians, is definitely an example of medieval mindset.

[Roma_Victrix]

Anyone with a brain knows that stocks go up and down. That's not the point. The point is that in a single day (or rather, a two-day period) about $3 trillion was lost in the global stock market. That's unprecedented; the single biggest loss in history. That's not a point for debate, either, that's a fact.

Yet that's not the entire reason the Remain camp remains wary about the Brexit. You're looking at the short-term gains and losses, and not looking at the long-term ones. The UK may have regained some measure of sovereignty by giving the middle finger to the bureaucrats in Brussels who want to push the EU closer and closer to federalization (of which the UK would have been marginally included at best, seeing how it was not part of Schengen, not part of the Eurozone and monetary union, and had all sorts of exceptions granted to it). In the meantime, however, the economic gravity of London as the financial center of Europe will shift to the continent, to either Paris or Frankfurt. You haven't taken into consideration at all that the financial industry based in London would find it more desirable to move where the much greater single market exists, without the hassle of passport controls and other regulatory laws that make business inconvenient when you throw up a strict border between two countries (or in this case, a single country, the UK, and a huge supranational union of member states).

That means a gradual decline in the importance of London and a financial drain on the rest of the country. That means many large banks and commercial enterprises might close up shop in Britain and move their headquarters to a suitable place in mainland Europe. That means the whole campaign promise about rejuvenating the NHS will instead mean possible cuts for that program as parliament struggles to come up with the funding. That means postgraduate students from around the world who attend universities in the UK might think twice about that decision, because they have no desire to purchase two expensive passports just to live in the UK and visit the EU when their academic degrees require it (to say nothing of professors and researchers who constantly travel to and from the continent from the UK). With less money being injected into the UK from people coming from abroad, even from the United States, how will you make up that loss as well? This is a bigger issue than a stock market rout, even if that stock market loss was the greatest of all time. Does that sound good to you?

[|Sith|Galvanized Iron]

I don`t know what you people are smoking but article 50 hasn`t been triggered, for all intents and purposes UK is full member of EU.

Of course the market would rebound, you are trying to sell the recovery after the huge fall caused the result of the referendum as real growth ?

The party has yet to start.

Highest level in a year. Not just recovery. Growth. We were promised a disaster, this is a good result.

Party has already started. Every setback for the EU is worth celebrating

Anyone with a brain knows that stocks go up and down. That's not the point. The point is that in a single day (or rather, a two-day period) about $3 trillion was lost in the global stock market. That's unprecedented; the single biggest loss in history. That's not a point for debate, either, that's a fact.

Yet that's not the entire reason the Remain camp remains wary about the Brexit. You're looking at the short-term gains and losses, and not looking at the long-term ones. The UK may have regained some measure of sovereignty by giving the middle finger to the bureaucrats in Brussels who want to push the EU closer and closer to federalization (of which the UK would have been marginally included at best, seeing how it was not part of Schengen, not part of the Eurozone and monetary union, and had all sorts of exceptions granted to it). In the meantime, however, the economic gravity of London as the financial center of Europe will shift to the continent, to either Paris or Frankfurt. You haven't taken into consideration at all that the financial industry based in London would find it more desirable to move where the much greater single market exists, without the hassle of passport controls and other regulatory laws that make business inconvenient when you throw up a strict border between two countries (or in this case, a single country, the UK, and a huge supranational union of member states).

That means a gradual decline in the importance of London and a financial drain on the rest of the country. That means many large banks and commercial enterprises might close up shop in Britain and move their headquarters to a suitable place in mainland Europe. That means the whole campaign promise about rejuvenating the NHS will instead mean possible cuts for that program as parliament struggles to come up with the funding. That means postgraduate students from around the world who attend universities in the UK might think twice about that decision, because they have no desire to purchase two expensive passports just to live in the UK and visit the EU when their academic degrees require it (to say nothing of professors and researchers who constantly travel to and from the continent from the UK). With less money being injected into the UK from people coming from abroad, even from the United States, how will you make up that loss as well? This is a bigger issue than a stock market rout, even if that stock market loss was the greatest of all time. Does that sound good to you?

TL;DR

It's back up. EU stock markets stay down.

[ShockBlast]

Highest level in a year. Not just recovery. Growth. We were promised a disaster, this is a good result.

Party has already started. Every setback for the EU is worth celebrating


TL;DR

It's back up. EU stock markets stay down.

Did actually look at the graph ? The additional growth is only a bit larger than the loss.

EU isn`t experiencing any setbacks, the fact that UK will be pushed out opens the road for the federalisation process.

We shall see when UK is forced to officially trigger Article 50.

[Roma_Victrix]

It's back up. EU stock markets stay down.

That's not really a response to the points I made, but okay.

[ShockBlast]

That's not really a response to the points I made, but okay.

Try with drawings, maybe you will get through......neah.

[Roma_Victrix]

Try with drawings, maybe you will get through......neah.

I'm too busy at the moment to waste time drawing a snooty, smug picture of Frankfurt drinking London's milkshake. It drinks it right up!



It would be even snootier if it was Paris instead. Hon, hon, hon, hon!

[ShockBlast]

I'm too busy at the moment to waste time drawing a snooty, smug picture of Frankfurt drinking London's milkshake. It drinks it right up!

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

It would be even snootier if it was Paris instead. Hon, hon, hon, hon!

I think that EU will not have a city that would dominate the financial sector after London`s decline.
Paris, Frankfurt and Milan will be the main beneficiaries with Hamburg, Vienna and maybe other cities snatching some of the business.

Oh....it`s so bitter when people from their home continent don`t know 10% as much you, for example.

If you have the skills you can use PolandBalls in your drawings....when you have the time.

[mongrel]

In reality, however, stoning to death and genital mutilation are non-existent in Syria, by far the largest source of refugees and have a tiny presence in Iraq, not to mention that no refugee has been blamed for a terrorist attack yet. On the other hand, being prejudiced and considering fellow humans, solely based on their ethnicity and religion as barbarians, is definitely an example of medieval mindset.

Indeed . I expect a modern civilised country to have it's citizens educated sufficiently to understand things like this. However, some parts of Europe, on the other side of the Iron Curtain, are more backward than others in this regard. It wasn't that long ago when NATO had to intervene in former Yugoslavia to stop genocide, surprising how this thought process still persists in Europe.

[ShockBlast]

Indeed . I expect a modern civilised country to have it's citizens educated sufficiently to understand things like this. However, some parts of Europe, on the other side of the Iron Curtain, are more backward than others in this regard.

Guilty as charged but if it`s any consolation the young seem to be more accepting and open than the elder people .... just like in UK.