Ukraine and Russia Developments, Thread 3

[Papay]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeASYIs8cdk

In the "liberated" from the Ukrainian army Konstyantynivka Ukraine soldiers are shooting to disperse protesters. Meanwhile clashes continue despite the ceasefire

[Carach]

While you guys debate over justification and what not Poroshenko is playing with fire.

He's put forward a draft bill in the Ukrainian parliament about the Special Status for Donetsk and Luhansk that would only give them said status if there's no more armed groups, and only after local elections monitored by the OSCE and after the Ukrainian border is retaken. Essentially he's saying: If you want your special status you will have to submit completely and fully and then we promise to give it.

The rebels and Russia will never accept that arrangement. Sure all those points brought up are in Minsk II but they are not tied to the requirement about the special status law but rather to the overall ceasefire as a whole.

I'm sure some people will argue over justification and what not, irrelevant argument, you can argue all you want but the facts remain: If Ukraine will push this as the only way they'll give the rebels special status then except the war to go on and this time Russia might take the gloves off and go all in.

no more armed groups is kind of an essential point in making such a massive concession (essentially what Putin has been demanding since day 1).

The border is Ukraine's and it was part of the terms during the last ceasefire that fell apart almost immediately as well as a condition included within the Minsk 2, that the rebels signed to. It's part of the same timetable.

You cant take it all and have nothing in return, especially when Ukraine arguably shouldn't be forced into any of these terms in the first place (being a state invaded by a neighbour and continuously destabilised by aforementioned neighbour, they should be defended in full force by the UN.. but alas this isn't an ideal world). If Ukraine fail to uphold their end of the bargain it's quite simple; russia will just continue to flood the region with their troops, which is why this whole debacle started in the first place, has continued for a year, and is still a problem today.

Ukraine are not going to go the way of Georgia and just wave goodbye to their territories by allowing masses of armed men to sit in these regions.

[Derpy Hooves]

While you guys debate over justification and what not Poroshenko is playing with fire.

He's put forward a draft bill in the Ukrainian parliament about the Special Status for Donetsk and Luhansk that would only give them said status if there's no more armed groups, and only after local elections monitored by the OSCE and after the Ukrainian border is retaken. Essentially he's saying: If you want your special status you will have to submit completely and fully and then we promise to give it.

The rebels and Russia will never accept that arrangement. Sure all those points brought up are in Minsk II but they are not tied to the requirement about the special status law but rather to the overall ceasefire as a whole.

I'm sure some people will argue over justification and what not, irrelevant argument, you can argue all you want but the facts remain: If Ukraine will push this as the only way they'll give the rebels special status then except the war to go on and this time Russia might take the gloves off and go all in.

​What's the problem? Ukraine gets what it wants (reunification other rebel regions) and the separatists get what they want (special status). Or are you saying that the Donbass should become another South Ossetia and Abkhazia?

[Col. Tartleton]

The U.S.S.R. is going to be back. It's just a matter of time.

[Costin_Razvan]

What's the problem? Ukraine gets what it wants (reunification other rebel regions) and the separatists get what they want (special status). Or are you saying that the Donbass should become another South Ossetia and Abkhazia?

The problem lies in the fact that the pre-condition for the rebels getting their special status is for them to disarm...somehow assuming the rebels are that stupid to trust Ukraine to keep their end of the bargain once there are no more forces to oppose their army in Donbass.

As I said it's not going to happen like this. Yes Putin wants the special status.

[Sire Brenshar]

The U.S.S.R. is going to be back. It's just a matter of time.

Nah come on what does that even mean? Communism will return?

On the other hand, I fully expect Belarus, Latvia, and Lithuania to be part of or under de facto Russian control within two decades.

[Dromikaites]

The problem lies in the fact that the pre-condition for the rebels getting their special status is for them to disarm...somehow assuming the rebels are that stupid to trust Ukraine to keep their end of the bargain once there are no more forces to oppose their army in Donbass.

As I said it's not going to happen like this. Yes Putin wants the special status.

Out of curiosity, what bad things are the evil Ukrainians going to do in the terrorist-occupied territory once they regain control?

[Costin_Razvan]

That's completely irrelevant and beyond my point. The rebels will never accept that condition nor will Putin. If anyone believes otherwise then I'll be here to bark: I told you so, when the rebel tanks march in Mariupol.

War does not determine who is right - only who is left.

[Alastor]

On the other hand, I fully expect Belarus, Latvia, and Lithuania to be part of or under de facto Russian control within two decades.

So you expect the EU to collapse within two decades? Not that unlikely the way things are going I guess, but still...

[StarDreamer]

The problem lies in the fact that the pre-condition for the rebels getting their special status is for them to disarm...somehow assuming the rebels are that stupid to trust Ukraine to keep their end of the bargain once there are no more forces to oppose their army in Donbass.

As I said it's not going to happen like this. Yes Putin wants the special status.

You do know that armed groups disarming is sort of a prerequisite for any sort of lasting peace? And elections can't be held in the area for as long as the armed groups are there. And the special status IS hollow if the actual people of the region can't vote for their representation first. At some point the armed groups would have to disarm anyways, otherwise it would be quite the lawless area.

[Costin_Razvan]

With the exception that Minsk II requires Ukraine to allow the rebels to be able to create their own militias in that special status bill. Just a point since that's the agreement both sides signed so like it or not elections will have to be held there with militias present.

Tying the special status to only be granted AFTER elections in the actual bill itself will ensure the rebels won't accept it, same with the disarming armed groups part. Essentially Ukraine is telling the rebels: If you want your special status you will bend the knee and do exactly what we want you to. Anyone expecting the rebels to accept that is living on another planet.

People have mentioned how Russia might collapse into several smaller countries the more this goes on I wonder though if that's not going to happen to Ukraine sooner rather then later. I'm not talking about large parts of Ukraine wishing to join Russia but as the central government continues a costly war and as the economic situation gets worse and worse every day how does Poroshenko imagine he will even finish his full first term?

Mariupol is quite important for Ukraine. Apparently 20% of Ukraine's foreign currency comes from exports from that city's local industry, or it used to but now it's dropped. VICE News did a video on this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mfj1eLebNo

[SPECTREtm]

Nah come on what does that even mean? Communism will return?

On the other hand, I fully expect Belarus, Latvia, and Lithuania to be part of or under de facto Russian control within two decades.

The last two implying a war with NATO I suspect - one that Russia for some unexplainable reason wins.

[Adar]

With the exception that Minsk II requires Ukraine to allow the rebels to be able to create their own militias in that special status bill. Just a point since that's the agreement both sides signed so like it or not elections will have to be held there with militias present.

Tying the special status to only be granted AFTER elections in the actual bill itself will ensure the rebels won't accept it, same with the disarming armed groups part. Essentially Ukraine is telling the rebels: If you want your special status you will bend the knee and do exactly what we want you to. Anyone expecting the rebels to accept that is living on another planet.

People have mentioned how Russia might collapse into several smaller countries the more this goes on I wonder though if that's not going to happen to Ukraine sooner rather then later. I'm not talking about large parts of Ukraine wishing to join Russia but as the central government continues a costly war and as the economic situation gets worse and worse every day how does Poroshenko imagine he will even finish his full first term?

Mariupol is quite important for Ukraine. Apparently 20% of Ukraine's foreign currency comes from exports from that city's local industry, or it used to but now it's dropped. VICE News did a video on this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mfj1eLebNo

The simple fact is that the separatists and volunteers failed in August. What we now have is a Russian invasion with a "rebel" meat shield. What you are saying pretty much only summarize as an argument that Russia will never actually live up to it's bargains.

And I actually agree about that, it is just the pretension that "the rebels" are somehow the ones stopping the Minsk II agreement from happening.

[Costin_Razvan]

The simple fact is that the separatists and volunteers failed in August.

I keep hearing about how the rebels were near defeat before the Russian intervention, such fantasy. We were all here back then so let's cut through the media bilge that's been thrown around: The rebels were desperately outnumbered and outgunned but they where able to resist Ukraine's military advances quite well despite losing some territory. These rebels were able to encircle Ukrainian troops time and time again BEFORE the August offensive.

Maybe in the long run the rebels would have potentially lost, but not in 2014 and certainly not in August. The Ukrainians weren't even able to encircle Sloviansk and they would never have been able to encircle Donetsk completely given their lack of manpower. The Russian intervention in August forced a few in Ukraine to accept they couldn't win or even if they could win it would be so incredibly costly as to leave their country a complete ruin.

What you are saying pretty much only summarize as an argument that Russia will never actually live up to it's bargains.

The bargain Ukraine struck at Minsk is quite different then what they are offering with that bill. You can argue over Russia's credibility on the issue but Russia would be more then happy to get it over with it at this stage and gain Luhanks and Donetsk with a special status since that's Putin goal.

Ukraine however is unwilling to accept it, because it would mean accepting defeat, even Poroshenko who may be in favor of peace is under heavy domestic pressure to continue the war with a good number of politicians and people in Ukraine not accepting Minsk II which Ukraine signed.

Ukraine lives under delusion that Russia can be defeated through military force, living under some fantasy that the west will save their asses if something bad happens to them, so they want to drag is into their war when for us the gain is minimal when talking about aiding Ukraine. I don't particular fancy that scenario and anyone who does and lives close to Russia is a bloody lunatic.

[Marcus Aemilius Lepidus]

The simple fact is that the separatists and volunteers failed in August. What we now have is a Russian invasion with a "rebel" meat shield. What you are saying pretty much only summarize as an argument that Russia will never actually live up to it's bargains.

And I actually agree about that, it is just the pretension that "the rebels" are somehow the ones stopping the Minsk II agreement from happening.

That is wishfull thinking. It is clear that there are Russian in Donbass but they are a few hundrets and not thousends like Kiev is claiming. They are probably advisors and some FSB guys doing the same as the Americans with their advisors and the CIA in the west. Yes there were pretty sure Russian divisions in Donbass, but technically as intervention forces and not invasion forces. They stopped Augusts the Ukrainian Army but than returned. There are no permanent Russian Troops in Donbass, neither the OSCE, the US, EU or any other organisations/state besides Ukraine is claiming that because they can't prove it.

Further there are over 100 Germans fighting in the ranks of the Seps as i already wrote on Monday. Together with a larger number of Russian volunteers and the people from the Seperatist areas itself the numbers actually add up. Further people tent to forget that there is also a small cossak republic besides Lukhansk and Doneszk.

http://www.dw.de/more-than-100-germa...ine/a-18316900
http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...ov-112420.html

As for the Seperatists to dissarm to solve the conflict. This demand is of course rediclious, especially as long as Kiev doesn't dissarm their private militias and the volunteer units. Already amnesty international and other human rights organisation presentet reports that those bataillions commited warcrimes and you can deny it, but the people in the east actually fear them enough to not give up their arms. Even if they would be in reality harmless, the russian media presented them that way which is one of the main reasons for the high acceptence of the Seps in the east. And in the paticular case the Russian Media didn't had to do much because Odessa was the perfect example. It is in the interest of Kiev to dissarm those bataillions because they are the more dangerous threat to Ukraine. Since the beginning the "government" had no real controll over those guys who constantly ignore orders and which broke truces in ignoring them. They are the reason why the east is revolting and why the people there have fear.

Here is a very good private german documentation which you can watch with english or russian subtitles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXRIuVNGmds
The creators belong rather to the left political field and produce a lot against nationalsocialism etc. but they try to be objectiv. They don't show corpses and don't use judging terms like Junta or Terrorists. It is really worth the watch if you want to know about the Odessa accident which triggert the resistence in the east.

[Principe Alessandro]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...h-their-choice

Meanwhile Crimeans are feeling the pain of economic hardship, the annexation is revealing itself much more costly than they originally thought.

[Vanoi]

No no Crimea is doing great right now under Russian rule. No problems at all

[Sire Brenshar]

So you expect the EU to collapse within two decades? Not that unlikely the way things are going I guess, but still...

Maybe a collapse of the Euro as a currency, but I doubt even that.

The EU cant really 'collapse', as its an institution not necessarily an organization or state. Some members might leave in the future most notably and importantly France, but I dont see a large number of states doing so. This is keeping in mind Russia actively supports anti-EU parties.

So at worst a reduction in funding a rise in panic levels and maybe the loss of continental bonuses.

The last two implying a war with NATO I suspect

I dont think so, speaking realistically at most war might get declared but nothing get done, as a phoney war 2.0. The best possible scenario would be NATO countries universally mobilize large numbers of troops and coordinate a strategy to retaking those places in a very high risk conflict - and how likely does that sound.

And as Ive mentioned before, article 5 of NATO does not explicitly mention any declaration of war just of 'adopting appropriate measures', which could just mean sanctions being applied. You'd have a lot of resistance and fear of adopting more serious measures in Western states and within NATO itself (maybe, if this risks the failure of the organization Id expect its secretariat to at least not want to lose their jobs and as such be rather vocal), and likewise Russia would be doing its best - and Im sure they have some clever strategies, to not give us reasons to respond military or in any costly ways.

The most likely scenario I think in which Russia invades and occupies the Baltic states we would see a delayed reaction as the west debates what to do for months, before some punitive measures are taken that does lead to a declaration of war and major economic sanctions, but that unfortunately will not see actual military action besides Cold War style proxy wars and containment, which leads to my next point:

- one that Russia for some unexplainable reason wins.

Russia is invulnerable to direct military actions so long as they have a nuclear umbrella. Anything east of Germany including and especially Sweden and Poland are at risk of nuclear attacks even merely as a demonstration of Russia's assertiveness.

They would eventually lose however, no doubt about that. Their future is one where they either change their entire society to become normal, peace inclined, and above all stable, which is obviously very unlikely, where the other is their current 'strong man' course which will lead to major confrontation with the west, major internal disturbances and them performing yet another disappearing act. And perhaps, that might be for the best though the issue of loose nuclear weapons will be a huge deal.

[Carach]

I keep hearing about how the rebels were near defeat before the Russian intervention, such fantasy.

'fantasy' backed up by the fact that the rebels had been pushed back to very few strongholds until a massive offensive spearheaded by the russian army took place at the end of August last year. which has been proven time and again with images, satellite photographs and people on the ground.

sure know who's living the fantasy here.. Like, where have u got the idea that Ukraine thinks it can beat russia militarily? when has that ever been the case?

the maps here can show how the rebels were far reduced by august, and then suddenly a front previously untouched by 'rebels' is opened up http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27308526

so obvious its painful. and yet here we are still debating what is already a fact (whether or not the russians are fully involved in this)

That is wishfull thinking. It is clear that there are Russian in Donbass but they are a few hundrets and not thousends like Kiev is claiming.

i really wish u lot would stop pasting it as either "its the western media" or "its kiev propaganda" - every independent observer in the region has stated it as a fact, not just Kiev.

That includes NATO - but the military intelligence of half the western world is apparently bias ( ) so we will drop that one and satisfy ourselves with the wealth of other pre-existing evidence that has been on display during the course of hundreds of pages of debate here.

[StarDreamer]

Maybe a collapse of the Euro as a currency, but I doubt even that.

The EU cant really 'collapse', as its an institution not necessarily an organization or state. Some members might leave in the future most notably and importantly France, but I dont see a large number of states doing so. This is keeping in mind Russia actively supports anti-EU parties.

So at worst a reduction in funding a rise in panic levels and maybe the loss of continental bonuses.



I dont think so, speaking realistically at most war might get declared but nothing get done, as a phoney war 2.0. The best possible scenario would be NATO countries universally mobilize large numbers of troops and coordinate a strategy to retaking those places in a very high risk conflict - and how likely does that sound.

And as Ive mentioned before, article 5 of NATO does not explicitly mention any declaration of war just of 'adopting appropriate measures', which could just mean sanctions being applied. You'd have a lot of resistance and fear of adopting more serious measures in Western states and within NATO itself (maybe, if this risks the failure of the organization Id expect its secretariat to at least not want to lose their jobs and as such be rather vocal), and likewise Russia would be doing its best - and Im sure they have some clever strategies, to not give us reasons to respond military or in any costly ways.

The most likely scenario I think in which Russia invades and occupies the Baltic states we would see a delayed reaction as the west debates what to do for months, before some punitive measures are taken that does lead to a declaration of war and major economic sanctions, but that unfortunately will not see actual military action besides Cold War style proxy wars and containment, which leads to my next point:



Russia is invulnerable to direct military actions so long as they have a nuclear umbrella. Anything east of Germany including and especially Sweden and Poland are at risk of nuclear attacks even merely as a demonstration of Russia's assertiveness.

They would eventually lose however, no doubt about that. Their future is one where they either change their entire society to become normal, peace inclined, and above all stable, which is obviously very unlikely, where the other is their current 'strong man' course which will lead to major confrontation with the west, major internal disturbances and them performing yet another disappearing act. And perhaps, that might be for the best though the issue of loose nuclear weapons will be a huge deal.

The day NATO fails to defend its own members is the day NATO disbands, it would lose its purpose and infact shatter all trust between its members, if it didn't defend all its members. Even Russia wouldn't be stupid enough to use nuclear weapons for some Baltic territory. Opening that can of worms might lead to Moscow and surroundings being nuclear wasteland, hardly a price worth paying for territory with quite a hostile population. Use of nuclear weapons inevitably leads to retalitory strikes with nuclear weapons.
Putin flashing the nuclear card is just one more reason he is completely nuts and I have a hard time understanding anyone supporting a guy that insane. Why threathen to use something that devastating for petty imperialism?