UK 2015 General Election - Conservative Victory

[Shankbot de Bodemloze]

Reading an article on the BBC about the parties' manifestos made me think perhaps it is an okay time to start discussing the election here on TWC - who do you think will win/make the most gains, will it be hung, people's views on the parties main policies, even how you think you'll vote if you wish to divulge that (although no saying "i'm voting labour because anything else just increase the Tories chances of getting in" - I despise tactical voting, it defeats the point) etc. Later on I'll see about getting a poll up on this thread to see which party is most popular on TWC. I would prefer it if people didn't criticise a persons view on such a policy, but that policy itself; we are all after all entitled to our views.

This site is also quite good if you have the time to sift through it - post your results here! The BBC article I linked above does a good job of summarising the parties stances towards major policy areas, and is a great read if you are unsure on their stances, or don't want to have to read through huge manifesto's when they are released.

All welcome; if you are outside the UK please feel free to share your thoughts on the parties polices as well.

(If someone has already posted a thread about this that eluded me please feel free to close/move this)

[Azog 150]

I was wandering when a thread would get posted on what is shaping up to be the most interesting general election for probably 30-40 years. I'll give a proper reply soon!!

[Jom]

Osbourne is already buying the grey vote with this fairly cynical move.

[General Retreat]

I can see UKIP faring in much the same way as the Lib Dems last general election. Lots and lots of pre-election hype that fails to solidify into the expected gains. I don't doubt they'll get a few seats, but not to the extent they'll have been hoping for. Perhaps unfairly, the media have been crucifying them - not that they've needed to with the party's internal organisation and management being a shambles lately.

My prediction: much of the same as last time: hung parliament with a coalition required to get stuff done. The precise ratios of the composition will change a little though. Large blocs will be watered down by smaller parties making gains; Greens, UKIP etc, probably to the detriment especially of the Lib Dems.

[Shaun]

In Scotland I predict that Labour will lose a huge amount of seats, as will the Lib Dems. The SNP will likely make huge gains, and may possibly even be a coalition partner with Labour if they don't get an overall majority. As a result, they will try their best to fracture the relationship between Scotland and England further throughout the duration of the parliament.

[Shankbot de Bodemloze]

Osbourne is already buying the grey vote with this fairly cynical move.

I thought the exact same when I heard he was extending the bond buying period... sneaky.

I can see UKIP faring in much the same way as the Lib Dems last general election. Lots and lots of pre-election hype that fails to solidify into the expected gains. I don't doubt they'll get a few seats, but not to the extent they'll have been hoping for. Perhaps unfairly, the media have been crucifying them - not that they've needed to with the party's internal organisation and management being a shambles lately.

My prediction: much of the same as last time: hung parliament with a coalition required to get stuff done. The precise ratios of the composition will change a little though. Large blocs will be watered down by smaller parties making gains; Greens, UKIP etc, probably to the detriment especially of the Lib Dems.

I agree with your thoughts on UKIP, I don't think they'll get as many seats as people think. However I am annoyed that the Tories got scared by UKIP and are promising an EU referendum though... a really bad mistake I feel.

@Azog, you are right, it is going to be a very interesting election... and the 7(?) leader debates I can only see as being chaos.

@Shaun, it is interesting that the SNP didn't get the referendum but by the majority of indicators are going to extremely well in Scotland.

[6th Vigil]

If the media sees fit to begin repeatedly smacking us in the face with election campaigning then we can certainly have a thread discussing our upcoming Parliamentary elections. We owe it to our international TWC members who are no doubt holding their collective breaths in wonder at who will guide the British people and therefore the world after the next few months.

Here are some polls that can give those of us who aren't in the know some indications of the electoral results:

Lord Ashcroft poll:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02...ip-15-green-9/

Labour and the Conservatives are once again tied in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll. Both parties are down a point at 31%, with UKIP on 15% for the third consecutive week and the Greens unchanged on 9%. The Lib Dems are up two points at 8%.The SNP are up a point at 4%, but Britain-wide polls are not the best measure of the party’s impact. My constituency research, covering individual Scottish seats, will provide a better guide when it is published on Wednesday. (Sign up for news alerts to get the results straight to your inbox).
This week I found swing voters – who either say they don’t know how they will vote or that they may change their mind from their current party – closely divided over whether “the country is heading in the right direction and we need to stay on the same path” (47%) or “the policies of the last few years have failed and it is time for a change” (49%). Labour voters (70%) and UKIP supporters (63%) were the most likely to say it was time for a change, and overall the electorate opted for change by 51% to 45%.

Corrections to above poll: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02...uth/#more-7536

Lord Ashcroft Scottish constituency survey:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02...und/#more-7456

What are the implications for the wider general election battleground? If a swing to the SNP of 21%, the smallest in this range, were to be repeated across the board next May it would endanger 35 of Labour’s 41 seats in Scotland. But we cannot assume such a uniform swing. Most of the seats in this survey are in areas which returned a particularly strong yes vote in September, where the SNP attraction will naturally be greater; in future rounds of research we may find a different pattern where support for independence was lower. Even so, the prospect of losing heartland seats will be a blow to Labour’s hopes: every seat they lose in Scotland means another they have to win from the Conservatives in England, while the national polls could not be much narrower.

YouGov/Sunday Times poll:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...lts-060215.pdf

And these two websites have a good collection of all the polls to date:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk

http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspo...-polls_25.html

Like other posters here I agree that a Labour/SNP coalition seems to be one of the more likely combinations that will result from this election but it is still early days. Although, I will say that having been reading about Irish partition lately, due to an abomination of a thread, I must say I find some of the parallels, limited though they are, a little concerning in regards to Scottish independence.

I used to be adamant in support of a referendum on EU membership because I wanted the issue over Europe settled as it has been debated long enough. Although I would rather the debate be framed in clear terms of leaving the EU or committing to the project in full knowledge of its political ramifications rather than this obscure renegotiation promise which will just confuse the issue, no doubt intentionally. However, having seen the referendum in Scotland and how the debate there has not been settled at all but merely postponed I feel I was rather naive in my belief that referenda can solve any issue for a long period of time.

[mongrel]

Osbourne is already buying the grey vote with this fairly cynical move.

Throwing £300million of taxpayer's at rich people who no longer have to work for a living. At yet we still have a bedroom tax.

[ShockBlast]

So what are the predictions regarding the anti-EU feelings ?

Will UK keep pissing against the wind ?

[Shankbot de Bodemloze]

I hope they don't, it is such a bad idea to leave the Euro its unbelievable.

[TASS07]

I can see UKIP faring in much the same way as the Lib Dems last general election. Lots and lots of pre-election hype that fails to solidify into the expected gains. I don't doubt they'll get a few seats, but not to the extent they'll have been hoping for. Perhaps unfairly, the media have been crucifying them - not that they've needed to with the party's internal organisation and management being a shambles lately.

My prediction: much of the same as last time: hung parliament with a coalition required to get stuff done. The precise ratios of the composition will change a little though. Large blocs will be watered down by smaller parties making gains; Greens, UKIP etc, probably to the detriment especially of the Lib Dems.

That's an interesting prediction, and a likely one too if you're asking me. I am likely not as privy to the internal workings over there as is a politicially interested Brit, but I try to keep up as good as I can. So thanks for the resumee!

@Shaun, it is interesting that the SNP didn't get the referendum but by the majority of indicators are going to extremely well in Scotland.

Well, at first that may seem interesting but essentially the referendum was a victory for the SNP to begin with, right? I mean the very fact that it took place, that Scots voted on their future (one could say against Westminster resistance) was an achievement.

If you want my personal opinion I agree with Shankbot: I do hope the British don't go full-on anti-European (to be fair I should say anti-EU). We'd loose a lot of mutual gain if we started fracturing like that. Now the EU certainly has its flaws, but I'd rather see an honest effort to fix them rather than a slow fracturing. That said the issue with that is that it requires an honest committent to the cause, which is difficult when the EU is viewed as sceptical as is (not only in Britain).

[Napoleonic Bonapartism]

I hope for a Labour Government, I'd rather be undemocratic and not vote on the EU; let this rightist populism die down (I'm sure it will). Then give the Populists a chance.

[Bobz]

I see a Labour minority government the most likely outcome. There is very little appetite for another formal coalition in either the Labour or Tory parties, and at present polls are indicating Labour won't be that far from a majority - close enough at least to create a confidence and supply agreement with some minor party MPs.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

I'm genuinely expecting to see an SNP/Labour coalition government this time around. We'll see how things develop, but that's just my thoughts off the bat.

I can't at this point see the Tories getting in again, UKIP i feel have lost quite a lot of momentum the past year or so, and are very much a one issue party still that hasn't developed yet a comprehensive picture of what exactly they'll do to govern the state- one that's realistic. Also they have far far too many loonies from the other parties which they've gladly accepted- so i'm questioning their constant 'We're different' angle when in fact...their full currently of the dross and extremists of the Tories, Labour and co.

The Greens are an interesting party- i'd like to see them develop a sensible policy for government though- i doubt they'll get in or get anywhere near remotely resembling power. But if they play their cards right, they may in fact see growth.

The Liberal Democrats- the only way they'll save their party is to NOT go into a coalition or even bring up the idea of one with the Tories. And i doubt Labour will have them over the SNP as a partner. This is helped of course by Nick Clegg outright saying the Liberals are apparently a 'Centrist' party...which effectively alienated the core of his voters.

[The Alcotroll]

I'm expecting either a Labour/Lib Dem coalition, or a Tory/UKIP one.

Not sure which is worse...

[removeduser_487563287433]

First election in my voting life where I will be hedging my bets (but voting Conservative all the same).

Get a poll added Shank.

[Shankbot de Bodemloze]

I can't see Labour doing that well for some reason, I don't know if it is just my natural political orientation or because of Ed Miliband.

Will do Ferrets, I was going to include all the parties have seats in the Commons:

-Tories
-Labour
-Lib Dems
-Greens
-UKIP
-SNP
-Plaid Cymru
-DUP
-Sinn Féin
-SDLP
-APNI
-Respect Party

or if that list is too broad then just the 7 being invited to the TV debates? What would people prefer.

[Azog 150]

That list looks fine to me. Might as well get a 'Spoiling my ballot' and a 'Not voting' option on there as well.

[Twido]

This time around it really is too close to call. There is, of course, plenty of time for things to turn around dramatically but I can see too more likely outcomes.

First of all a Conservative, UKIP coalition. This really depends on UKIP doing well and the Lib Dems doing badly (which is not an unreasonable prediction). This government will be significantly more right wing than the current one, will ratchet up the austerity program and we would have a European referendum.

The other option is a Labour rainbow coalition made up of Labour and two of the following: SNP, Lib Dems or the greens. It is difficult to predict what this government would do but I would expect higher public spending through either higher taxation or more debt.

One might be turned off by either outcome, but things might not be so bad. A European referendum could be beneficial by ending the doubt hovering over the issue. Big business does not like uncertainty and in a best case scenario we could even help reform the EU for the better.

I am concerned about a possible Labour / SNP coalition. Having a section of the government only interested in a small portion of the population and with its own agenda for independence would be unworkable. This would be compounded by having a weak prime minister and I would not expect such a government to last a whole term.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

I am concerned about a possible Labour / SNP coalition. Having a section of the government only interested in a small portion of the population and with its own agenda for independence would be unworkable. This would be compounded by having a weak prime minister and I would not expect such a government to last a whole term.

I'm rather expecting such a government though. I think while your right here and it could get a very Scotland/Northern centric approach with a Labour/SNP coalition- which actually wouldn't be a bad thing given the fact the UK desperatly needs to start trying to balance out it's economic discrepancy of investment in terms of South-East- North ration (Which will benefit everyone by pegging down the massive living expensive of being down in the South-East and creating a large more stable UK economy overall).

But alternatively- if the SNP applied the policies they've used in Scotland- in terms of a more 'Scandinavian style living'- most importantly being a Merit-based University system. But other areas that are watered down by Labour (and in return the SNP watering down Labours typical blow the budget stance of spending- whatever you say about the SNP they've been very capable here in terms of producing a budget surplus at some points) we might see a highly workable government in which the South-East centric nature of UK politics is broken- another first to go along with the unprecedented amount of power the smaller parties are enjoying this time round.