THE RESEARCH
A native of Greece, Tsoutsoura knew tax evasion was a fact of life in her home country. But just how pervasive was it? She and Morse, along with Nikolaos Artavanis, assistant professor at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, were determined find out.
The researchers realized Greek banks had a strong financial incentive to calibrate their clients' true incomes against what they reported to the government in order to determine how much loan money to offer. So Morse, Tsoutsoura, and Artavanis obtained access to loan data from one of the country's large banks and compared it with government data. They documented what they found in their paper, "Tax Evasion Across Industries: Soft Credit Evidence From Greece."
They found that self-employed, highly educated professionals such as lawyers, doctors, and accountants evaded more income tax than lower income occupations. In sum, tax evasion by the self employed was worth at least a stunning total of $38 billion (€28 billion) in 2009.
Assuming that money would have been taxed at 40 percent, the lost revenue was equivalent to almost a third of that year's budget deficit shortfall of $48 billion (€35.4 billion).
In their data comparison, the authors found that if one believed the monthly income that self-employed households reported to the tax authority, these households would have had to spend 59 percent of their monthly income just servicing debt. In the case of the highly educated professionals - lawyers, doctors, financial service professionals, and accountants - the ratio rose above 100 percent.
The authors understood that these numbers were outlandish. Not only would such accounting leave loan-takers with, at most, a fifth of their income to live on, it also would mean a borrowing rate far above the 30 percent level seen as standard practice by banks in Greece and elsewhere across Europe and the United States.
In reality, average self-employed workers earned almost twice as much money as they declared in their tax returns. The biggest offenders were professionals, with doctors earning two and a half times what they reported.
"It is one thing to say that an economy has pervasive tax evasion, it is another thing when you can demonstrate it with scientific evidence and put it out as a platform for people to use," Morse said.