Discussion on Greek political, financial issues + new elections

[alhoon]

Repousi isn't a MP candidate.
I will vote for DHMAR.

[Knight of Heaven]

You don't get it. No it is not inevitable that whole bloody mess falls to shoulders of those innocent of this mess.
It is perfectly viable to force Greece to shoulder this whole failure. They may not be able to pay their debts, but they CAN provide compensation to those who have to shoulder the money to pay their creditors.

Greek national gold reserves (reduced price), transferred to other Euro states. Greek military hardware(reduced value), transferred to possession of other nations. Greek territory, ceded to Euro states. Hell, if it takes it then lots of Greeks have two functional kidneys. Just start selling them in black market. I care not how they come up with compensation, as long as Greeks pay Greek debts in one way or form.

And once they have, I am willing to bet that Greek society will never, ever again accept such economical behavior that led them to this. So it is very educational for them as well.

You just make my point spot on. On why it is indeed inevitable.
What you sugesting it is not realistic, that is why it is inevitable.
When your debt is 215% of your GDP ( and increasing), selling your whole country and its wealth wouldnt even covered it, not by a long shot.
Regardless this rethoric is totaly out of touch with the reality, and how this things usualy work, and have been working trough history.

And I have long noticed that Greeks never planned to do that anyway.

Like the Germans never payed theirs to the Greeks... "cough!" WWII reparations..."cough"...

Which is BS for example for Finland. Finns did not have multibillion euro risks. Now we have multiple billions of toxic Greek debts hanging on our necks. And Greeks want that we pay that debt and they keep failing their economy, expecting us to bail them out AGAIN.

You do know what the word unsustainable means dont you? Well that is exactly what it means. Its bad for the Greeks and its bad for the creditors. If you dont reach a compromise that is.

I think you do not really grasp it.
Nations who have loaned money or guaranteed have to pay 100% or they are considered to default.
As it is, Greece has received lots of interest free time and prolonged payment schedules.

And guess who does NOT receive those? Nations that had to/have to take loans for Greeks. Yay! Terms for Greece are in many ways much better than terms nations who have the debts pushed on receive.

And that is why the european project is already doomed, at least where this sentiment is concerned.
And that is the price we all pay to share the same currency.

[Ludicus]

This ultra liberal?

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I think we all can agree he is a compulsive liar.

I have no doubt Costa and Coelho are very different figures, specialy on the intelectual level

Absolutely.

]Costa "speech" is very moderate concerning this matters.Nothing like Syriza, for one Costa always underlines, the changes need to be done within the EU and the Euro

Syriza's leadership has become more moderate...

.... the same european partners that are denying the Greeks to make any more concessions

Don't call them partners.
I hope not, the debt is unpayable.

Im not deluded, of what to expect from Costa.

I think we are both on the same part of the political spectrum.I am just trying desperately to be optimistic...

Ahahah
I like you Ludicus, we might be on different sides of political spectrum but ...

[Timoleon of Korinthos]

Listen, law is not unbreakable and since States are not bound to anything since they are soverign this is even more true for them.

Now, as general rule I agree with you that you have to give back everything you borrowed but sometimes it is impossible, this is one of those situation. Does it make a default? Yes. Is it a tragedy? No. States and companies default often, it's in the range of possibility, what will you do if Greece stops paying interests? Bring them at a court? Mean nothing as no one can oblige a State to do something ( of course there are consequences for this, I know) no court has any right towards any State if that State does'nt recognize it. Do you invade them? Do you confiscate all Greek citizen's properties in your country?

This is defined as Systemic Risk in finance, it is the risk that is not manageable by anyone, Greece can't pay all that back in any way ( because imposing other sacrifices is immoral and counter productive) if we agree to solve the issue as gentlemen they get a pardon of maybe, 30% of debt and we get back the rest, if not we will not get anything. It is irrelevant now to talk about how things started, I think greeks have their (big) share of guilt by having lived above their means, but Germany, France, Italy and Europe in general have their too: first of all they should have never be admitted in the € and they should'nt have coocked the books.

Lending money is a risky business, and a State without an autonomous monetary policy is fundamentally like a very large company so it is not perfectly reliable.

I agree more or less, but I don't think Greece needs a haircut. We can manage annual primary surpluses in the range between 3-5bn but not between 7-10bn. So extending the maturity date and reducing interest rates accordingly should work. The net present value of the debt would, of course, sink in that case, so in real terms you do have a haircut, but the nominal value would remain unchanged, which would make it easier for national parliaments to approve of the deal.

[Braindead Colonel]

I think you do not grasp the massive size of the issue. Greece has so much goddamn debts that it will sink multiple economies when they are crashed, WITH INTEREST, on necks of other taxpayers. On top of this there is TARGET-debts which will also come crashing down.

That, for Finland alone, makes up around 30+BILLION euros and growing. Of more debt.

You think that does not make even rather mellow natured Finns want Greek blood?

You don't get it. No it is not inevitable that whole bloody mess falls to shoulders of those innocent of this mess.
It is perfectly viable to force Greece to shoulder this whole failure. They may not be able to pay their debts, but they CAN provide compensation to those who have to shoulder the money to pay their creditors.

Greek national gold reserves (reduced price), transferred to other Euro states. Greek military hardware(reduced value), transferred to possession of other nations. Greek territory, ceded to Euro states. Hell, if it takes it then lots of Greeks have two functional kidneys. Just start selling them in black market. I care not how they come up with compensation, as long as Greeks pay Greek debts in one way or form.

So, the Finnish government agrees to lend money to Greece,
as part of a bailout for the benefit of Europe's private banks,
and which was guaranteed to fail since
a) the debt was not reduced enough and
b) the austerity shrinked Greece's economy
A bailout btw that the Greek people vehemently protested against.

If you want a scapegoat to rant against, then I guess you could use the Greeks for that; it's pretty much all you will be getting from them after all. But the mature response would be to realize you need to elect goverments that represent your nations interests. It seems the Greeks have finally learned that. 2 days left to find out!

[Emperor Arcturus Mengsk]

Repousi isn't a MP candidate.
I will vote for DHMAR.

You should vote for "Ανεξάρτητη Ανανεωτική Αριστερά, Ανανεωτική Δεξιά, Ανανεωτικό ΠΑΣΟΚ, Ανανεωτική Νέα Δημοκρατία, Όχι στον Πόλεμο, Κόμμα Επιχείρηση Χαρίζω Οικόπεδα, Χαρίζω Χρέη, Σώζω Ζωές, Παναγροτικό Εργατικό Κίνημα Ελλάδος (ΠΑ.Ε.Κ.Ε.) (Μ. Τζαλαζίδης)"

[Timoleon of Korinthos]

You should vote for "Ανεξάρτητη Ανανεωτική Αριστερά, Ανανεωτική Δεξιά, Ανανεωτικό ΠΑΣΟΚ, Ανανεωτική Νέα Δημοκρατία, Όχι στον Πόλεμο, Κόμμα Επιχείρηση Χαρίζω Οικόπεδα, Χαρίζω Χρέη, Σώζω Ζωές, Παναγροτικό Εργατικό Κίνημα Ελλάδος (ΠΑ.Ε.Κ.Ε.) (Μ. Τζαλαζίδης)"

LOL How are they different from SYRIZA, though?

[RNV]

I agree more or less, but I don't think Greece needs a haircut. We can manage annual primary surpluses in the range between 3-5bn but not between 7-10bn. So extending the maturity date and reducing interest rates accordingly should work. The net present value of the debt would, of course, sink in that case, so in real terms you do have a haircut, but the nominal value would remain unchanged, which would make it easier for national parliaments to approve of the deal.

Yeah, extending the debt is still restructuring but is a bit less drastic.

My personal prediction is that Tsipras already has a deal in his hands ( he talks like he has) and he will have an haircut or another restructuring. Now, my personal preference would be a complete reject of all condition so to spark another currency crisis in Europe and kill the € once and for all since that is a anchor for everyone except Germany and satellites, but most likely that will not come this year.

An historical note: no one in history has ever managed to pay back a debt high as Greece's or even Italy's or France's with primary surpluses. Just mind that Italy has a primary surplus of roughly 27-40 billions (now more I think) since 1992 and our debt grew nonetheless after the good years of '90s and early '00s. But we are lazy southerners that lived over their means...

[Ludicus]

God bless you Greece (says the agnostic).
The Guardian meets Syriza and the young people voting for change."History is knocking at our door.Nothing can stop it now"-Alexis Tsipras
Greek elections: young, broke and voting for change

----
RNV

€ ... is a anchor for everyone except Germany and satellites...no one in history has ever managed to pay back a debt high as Greece's...

Obviously.

[alhoon]

But the mature response would be to realize you need to elect goverments that represent your nations interests. It seems the Greeks have finally learned that. 2 days left to find out!

I believe it's quite naïve to believe the ex-PASOK thieves that hide inside SYRIZA have the national interests in mind.
And we all wish the Greek people have learned to elect governments represent the national interests instead of the oligarch interests but... I'm afraid they will vote for the ones promising them money, like they did in 2009 for "Λεφτά υπάρχουν" crap, without caring that there is no money to give.

LOL How are they different from SYRIZA, though?

In my opinion, they are trolling the voters and make fun openly. Hence "Renewed PASOK-ND-Left-Right" stuff in the title. They want to make sure people know they're joking.

[Braindead Colonel]

I believe it's quite naïve to believe the ex-PASOK thieves that hide inside SYRIZA have the national interests in mind.

If you are referring to the voters then that is a given; a party needs at least relative majority to form a government.
If you are referring to candidates, then it's the people's choice by "stauro protimisis" to pick the non-formerPASOK candidates.

But you state that you will vote DIMAR, the supposed central-left party that really was just PASOK under a different name, that formed the coalition goverment with PASOK ND, and most of its mps are now in ND and POTAMI. So I really can't take seriously your criticisms of SYRIZA.

[Knight of Heaven]

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[RNV]

I'm sure Syriza will win but I still think they have confusion in their heads... their economic program is not viable now and probably would be hard even withot the € and EU... that said the things don until now have devastated the country so better to jump in darkness than assisted suicide...

[Ludicus]

Last news, Syriza projected at 35.5 -39.5. What percentage will Syriza need to form a majority government?

[Kyriakos]

They likely will have a majority without any need to ally to anyone. I think it is a good result, but i hope they won't ape this. Clearly they were voted upon by many, and most due to hoping that at least Syriza won't be the disaster the previous crooks were for this country.

I hope so too. :\

[Timoleon of Korinthos]

I'm sure Syriza will win but I still think they have confusion in their heads... their economic program is not viable now and probably would be hard even withot the € and EU... that said the things don until now have devastated the country so better to jump in darkness than assisted suicide...

Oh, man, you have no idea how out of touch with reality their economic program is. The party is entirely comprised of economically illiterate members who make proposals like "we will finance public investments with bank deposits" (*deposits*, not even reserves or equity) or that they have formulated a program whereby the government can increase annual social spending and slash taxes by usitilising the "funds" of HFSF, which apart from the fact that only exist in the form of EFSF bonds that under ECB's management and require the ECB's permission to be liquified and imbursed, could only finance the program for one year. They do include a handful if economists who seem to have good sense, but those have either academic careers or their investment portfolio in foreign assets managed by funds in the UK and the USA and they are willing to plame game theory with the Eurozone and the ECB.

Anyway, I have been stashing popcorn and chips all week, now is the time to sit back and watch from the safety of living abroad. I am really, really curious as to how things turn out. SYRIZA is on the verge of winning absolute majority in the Parliament according to the polls, so they won't have any excuses to go back on their promises to the electorate, which will perplex negotiations with Europe.

[pajomife]

Lets see how a far left political party becomes a liberal one.Is that Greece only have money for 3 months.

[Stavroforos]

Last news, Syriza projected at 35.5 -39.5. What percentage will Syriza need to form a majority government?

It depends on how many parties are left out of Parliament, but it looks like they're going to be at 148 minimum seats in Parliament which requires 151 for majority. Highest projections place them at 158 seats.

In any case, SYRIZA won the elections largely by making itself appear to be the last hope the Greek people have left. If SYRIZA conforms to the other parties or if they fail in their tasks and bring Greece back in the depths of crisis, I shudder to think what a country with no more hope will produce, but it will certainly be a good time for young Greeks to see what their options outside of Greece are.

[alhoon]

If you are referring to the voters then that is a given; a party needs at least relative majority to form a government.
If you are referring to candidates, then it's the people's choice by "stauro protimisis" to pick the non-formerPASOK candidates.

I'm referring to the bureaucrats. The Party mechanism, the unions and all the rest that come with the government. The Ministry low-level official that demands 500 Euro Fakelaki to do the job he's supposed to do. The manager of PPC. Etc

But you state that you will vote DIMAR, the supposed central-left party that really was just PASOK under a different name, that formed the coalition goverment with PASOK ND, and most of its mps are now in ND and POTAMI. So I really can't take seriously your criticisms of SYRIZA.

What remained in DHMAR are those that I support. DHMAR was not PASOK. They realized that the situation was bad and they had to compromise their expectations for the benefit of the country. They caught a lot of flak for forming a coalition with ND and PASOK and for reneging on their values, but really, it was compromises that had to be done.
If we have collective agreements between employer and employees, even at the reduced, crippled form they are now, so that SYRIZA can shout "We will extend them!" that's thanks to DHMAR. Else SYRIZA should have to start them from the ground up. DHMAR was the reason they are still in place.
If your employer can ask for "just" 20 extra hours/month without pay instead of 30/week... that's because of DHMAR.
If the lowest wage is not 390 Euros for everyone, that's because of DHMAR.

You may argue, and that's your right, that we're "little better" because of these "Red lines" that DHMAR defended. That they set the limit too low.
However, my argument is that "a little better because of DHMAR" is way better than "Way worse" which is the effect of nearly every other party.
That's why I voted for DHMAR: They were mildly beneficial for the country, they were not corrupt and they knew where and when to compromise and when not to compromise.

[dogukan]

Syriza is a product of post-Marxism...they are not concerned with economics within capitalist relations. Its not about growth or statistics...
They are a curbed version of revolutionary movements.

For them to succeed, they need to go radical and revolutionary, for if they try to compromise with capitalism, they will simply create a failed "economy"....I hope they chase a radical transition in social relations towards a revolutionary end...for I fear their failure can kick Nazis far up in the charts.

Who knows, direct democracy might return to Greece
It is already coming to Mesopotamia.