Discussion on Greek political, financial issues + new elections

[Stavroforos]

It also brings up an interesting discussion on what the point of having the taxpayer pay for a Greek's free education is when that young professional will end up working abroad for the country that didn't even invest a dime in his education.

[alhoon]

I relate to this phenomenon, one of the main reasons the current government must be ousted


http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...st-brain-drain

Just 200K Greeks? That can't be right. About 1/3 of my former co-students in the university have left. Admitedly, we already had problems with employment (Mining Engineers) but I expected at least double that number.

[Platon]

Then I hope you are part of that small elite group ND now solely caters to; their agenda is pretty clear: use the debt as an excuse to enrich their friends at the expense of everyone else.

Country is in debt -> Sell-off public property to oligarchs for pennies!
Country is in debt -> Reduce business taxation to attract "investments"
etc...

They want the debt at these unsustainable levels, its the perfect bogey-man. But hey, at least you won't disappoint the former minister of Health and current pm of ND, Adonis.

This is a better one:



I think it's beyond all doubt that this guy is maybe the biggest clown in politics ever. I wonder what you are supposed to call the people that vote for him

[Ludicus]

We are seeing the winds of change...Syriza, Greece; PS, Portugal..
Mateo Rezzi, today,in Davos,

Rispetto l'indipendenza della Bce, ma dia il messaggio che l'Europa deve andare verso un nuovo cammino di crescita. È finito il tempo dell'austerità. Abbiamo bisogno di una diversa idea di Europa

And...
Thomas Piketty: rise of anti-austerity parties good news for Europe

[Timoleon of Korinthos]

On another planet, perhaps. Most Greeks are pretty big on statism. One of the most common complaints you hear from people, regardless of political affiliation, is that ND "destroyed the state".

I know, I meant that they were very close to making it to the Parliament and would have probably done so, if Drasi and Recreate Greece had cooperated before the second round, which would have been an amazing performance given how accustomed to statism Greek society is. That momentum simply waned afterwards.

[Vítor Gaspar]

We are seeing the winds of change...Syriza, Greece; PS, Portugal..
Mateo Rezzi, today,in Davos,


And...
Thomas Piketty: rise of anti-austerity parties good news for Europe

How's the PS, one of the "big two" in Portugal, and perhaps the most influential of all Portuguese parties, a "wind of change"?

Ever since 1974 our democracy has been like a political showoff of Italian football: everyone's passing the ball to each other. PS, PSD. PSD, PS. PS, PSD. And so on.

Our political environment is stagnant.

They (PS) will win, but they aren't bringing absolutely nothing new to table. In fact, it will be a continuation of what the PSD has been doing, only less "out in the open". They won't have the whole "we are living above our means" speech, but they'll continue on cutting the miser 300€-a-month your retired, widower, Prozac-riddled (which costs nearly 300€ a month) neighbour earns.

The PS is a centrist party. It has nothing of Socialist, or even Social Democratic (to be fair PS was always SD, not a Socialist Party), these days, besides its name and, arguably, its liberal social agenda (not to be confused with its socio-economic agenda). Then again, the PSD is everything but "Social Democrat".

In Greece, the political parties collapsed. In Portugal they're alive and well.

If anything, against all odds, it's the small, alternative parties that came out of the crisis completely annihilated (how come the Bloco de Esquerda didn't capitalise from the crisis?! Seriously, some polls suggest they may even lose their seat in the Parliament).

It shows how Portugal works. Or maybe the state of affairs among Socialist Parties in Europe. Why yes, Portugal's PS old time buddie/father (France's PS) is facing exactly the same thing PS faces here in Portugal.

Who the hell is Hollande?! And Costa - lets just pretend that guy isn't one of the most centre-right persons the PS ever had in its ranks. Sure Assis was a leach - even Costa is better - but come on... and don't even get me started on Sócrates.

[fkizz]

Who the hell is Hollande?! And Costa - lets just pretend that guy isn't one of the most centre-right persons the PS ever had in its ranks. Sure Assis was a leach - even Costa is better - but come on... and don't even get me started on Sócrates.

Costa.. is only the man in charge of managing the capital city Lisbon and leaving a balanced budget. This in a country full of deficit everywhere. "Only" that.

Sócrates is blamed for having dog and not having, he is the scapegoat for confused people, and whatever PSD does wrong, it's Sócrates fault, despite him being in jail without trial or prosecution. Typical political prisioner.

Then there's Marinho Pinto, the rising Euro Sceptic. The fact that the political spectrum of Portugal remains on center can be good or bad depending on perspective. It means all this austerity wasn't enough to attack the rigidity and tenacity of our people.

We endured 13 years of colonial war on 3 war fronts plus four decades of fascism.

We are not spoiled kids.

[RNV]

We are seeing the winds of change...Syriza, Greece; PS, Portugal..
Mateo Rezzi, today,in Davos,


And...
Thomas Piketty: rise of anti-austerity parties good news for Europe

Save time, don't quote Renzi. He is a liar.

He tries to import champaigne socialism to Italy without the great bureaucracy of France, he also raised taxes, or better, lowered 1 tax before european elections then raised the rest or left the burden of raising them to municipalities and regions.

He also said he will not touch pensions and public salaries while that is the public expenditure that one HAS to cut in Italy. Raise investments and lower current account expenses, that is the way out ( in slogan and vastly oversimplified admittedly ).

That said, taxes should be much much lower. Much lower and still much lower.

[alhoon]

The problem with taxes is everyone wants them to be lower.

[RNV]

Yes, but the problem is not really that: the real problem is that people want lower taxes with same services and privileges.

[alhoon]

That's what I meant. No matter how low are the taxes, people would want to pay less and receive more.

[Ludicus]

How's the PS, one of the "big two" in Portugal, and perhaps the most influential of all Portuguese parties, a "wind of change"?...lets just pretend that guy isn't one of the most centre-right persons the PS ever had

Yes, it's a wind of change. You just can't compare Costa with the ultra neoliberal Passos Coelho.

The PS is a centrist party. It has nothing of...

..communist? no, PS isn't a communist party.

In fact, it will be a continuation of what the PSD has been doing

I hope that the PS will not turn to the right.

how come the Bloco de Esquerda didn't capitalise from the crisis?

BE is internally divided , and it lost Louçã (I really appreciate him) and Daniel Oliveira, and there is too much internal sectarianism. Sadly, the Left Bloc isn't an united Syriza.

fkizz

Costa.. is only the man in charge of managing the capital city Lisbon and leaving a balanced budget. This in a country full of deficit everywhere. "Only" that.

Well said, fkizz.You took the words right out of my mouth...

whatever PSD does wrong, it's Sócrates fault

Right...

being in jail without trial or prosecution

Two months already!

-----
RNV

taxes should be much much lower...the real problem is that people want lower taxes with same services and privileges.

I see what you did there

. No matter how low are the taxes, people would want to pay less and receive more.

Look at the Nordic countries...

[Knight of Heaven]

Yes, it's a wind of change. You just can't compare Costa with the ultra neoliberal Passos Coelho

This ultra liberal?

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

A politica de privatizacoes sera criminosa nos proximos anos se visar apenas vender activos, ao desbarato para arranjar dinheiro....

Translation
"The privatization policy will be criminal in the coming years, if it is intended only to sell assets cheaply in order to get more money" Guess what he has been doing after this years?
Also

nao contaram, para mais ataques a classe media em nome dos problemas externos...

Translation
"do not expect on more attacks on middle class on behalf of external problems"



My point Ludicus we have to take campaing rethoric with a huge grain of salt, and look at the political/diplomatic, economic situation of the country first.

I have no doubt Costa and Coelho are very different figures, specialy on the intelectual level.
But i need to take everything they say with face value, specialy in campaing.
Plus, truthfuly Costa "speech" is very moderate concerning this matters.
Nothing like Syriza, for one Costa always underlines, the changes need to be done within the EU and the Euro, and with the european "partners". Yeah right.... the same european partners that are denying the Greeks to make any more concessions, on debt restructuring and such, without doing what they want first? yeah.... right!

Im not deluded, of what to expect from Costa. Probably a better management of things though, as he is far better politician, then Coelho, and much more competent.
But as General policies is concerned i belive there is so much he can do realy.

how come the Bloco de Esquerda didn't capitalise from the crisis?! Seriously, some polls suggest they may even lose their seat in the Parliament

BE is already over. It is divided, and failed to be a real alternative. I cant say im sad about it, given the most folk i like isnt there anymore. Ana Drago, Miguel Portas, Daniel Oliveira, Rui Tavares etc.
It failed because it refused to went to the concerns of the electorate. That simple. It chose to be a New PCP... that was a idiotic mistake.

Now there is Livre. But it is yet a very small force. And a recently one the Portuguese Podemos, all those born thanks to BE fragmentation.

PCP ( portuguese comunist party) is the only party that got stronger with this crisis, and this years of austerity.
Yes even the social democrat parties PS, and PSD are much weaker then they used to be, besides still leading the political scene.
Lets not even speak of CDS/PP, they without PSD, are also nothing, and will probably will get the same fate BE is getting.

[RNV]

-----
RNV

I see what you did there

Ahahah

I like you Ludicus, we might be on different sides of political spectrum but both come to similar conclusions .

At last on Euro crisis and nordic supremacists.

[Tiwaz]

While it's true that other countries' taxpayers will be angered that their tax money go to cover our loans, I think you overestimate how much anger there'll be over it. Most Europeans will be annoyed, not rage and riot.

I think you do not grasp the massive size of the issue. Greece has so much goddamn debts that it will sink multiple economies when they are crashed, WITH INTEREST, on necks of other taxpayers. On top of this there is TARGET-debts which will also come crashing down.

That, for Finland alone, makes up around 30+BILLION euros and growing. Of more debt.

You think that does not make even rather mellow natured Finns want Greek blood?

Also, I'm not that sure the European taxpayers will have to shoulder those debts. The EU may tell the banks "You know what? We're actually going to restructure our debt to you too!" and cheat the banks/debt-holders from part of their money too. Lose-lose situation, but neither side would lose too much.

If that had been the plan, it would have been done in the first place. Let Greece sink and banks shoulder the loss. What you describe is effectively default. You do not get out of default.

And after that? While the markets will initially not trust EU that much after EU pulls a Greece on them and tells them they won't get the money they signed for... who would they turn to in the end? There are no reliable customers in the world and the crisis proved it. So, they will have to start lending back to the EU, with the realization it's just more risky than they thought 10 years ago.

After that markets will no longer touch EU bonds with 10 foot pole because they are proven to be toxic, except with MASSIVE interest rates to compensate for risk. This for nations who handle their economy well, because they have established that they will take over debts of failed and lazy crapholes like Greece.

That in turn will hurt massively these decent nations, as they are rated according to crap nations, because there is established that they will take over debt of failures and then default themselves.

You dont get it..
it is inevitable. The question is when.
And evidence sugests the longer you wait the bigger the fall will be. imo.
Even IMF has been saying this for some time now, since 2013 to be exact...admiting to their own mistakes, and even saying they understimated the damage done by the austerity program.

You don't get it. No it is not inevitable that whole bloody mess falls to shoulders of those innocent of this mess.
It is perfectly viable to force Greece to shoulder this whole failure. They may not be able to pay their debts, but they CAN provide compensation to those who have to shoulder the money to pay their creditors.

Greek national gold reserves (reduced price), transferred to other Euro states. Greek military hardware(reduced value), transferred to possession of other nations. Greek territory, ceded to Euro states. Hell, if it takes it then lots of Greeks have two functional kidneys. Just start selling them in black market. I care not how they come up with compensation, as long as Greeks pay Greek debts in one way or form.

And once they have, I am willing to bet that Greek society will never, ever again accept such economical behavior that led them to this. So it is very educational for them as well.

Not to mention a great deal of debt over this years have been transfered to national hands ( a true porpuse of the austerity i suspect, to actualy save northen european banks that were at risk because of the euro crisis)
From Professor Paul De Grauwe writes at London school of economics, and Political Science.

Which is BS for example for Finland. Finns did not have multibillion euro risks. Now we have multiple billions of toxic Greek debts hanging on our necks. And Greeks want that we pay that debt and they keep failing their economy, expecting us to bail them out AGAIN.

[RNV]

You know, usually investors are practical people, better to get back 60% of what I lent than nothing and this is the case of Greece. If they continue like this they will never pay the debt back for one reason or another so better get used to the idea of losing some, when you lent money with such high interests you accepted the risk.

[Stavroforos]

I think you do not grasp the massive size of the issue. Greece has so much goddamn debts that it will sink multiple economies when they are crashed, WITH INTEREST, on necks of other taxpayers. On top of this there is TARGET-debts which will also come crashing down.

That, for Finland alone, makes up around 30+BILLION euros and growing. Of more debt.

You think that does not make even rather mellow natured Finns want Greek blood?



If that had been the plan, it would have been done in the first place. Let Greece sink and banks shoulder the loss. What you describe is effectively default. You do not get out of default.



After that markets will no longer touch EU bonds with 10 foot pole because they are proven to be toxic, except with MASSIVE interest rates to compensate for risk. This for nations who handle their economy well, because they have established that they will take over debts of failed and lazy crapholes like Greece.

That in turn will hurt massively these decent nations, as they are rated according to crap nations, because there is established that they will take over debt of failures and then default themselves.



You don't get it. No it is not inevitable that whole bloody mess falls to shoulders of those innocent of this mess.
It is perfectly viable to force Greece to shoulder this whole failure. They may not be able to pay their debts, but they CAN provide compensation to those who have to shoulder the money to pay their creditors.

Greek national gold reserves (reduced price), transferred to other Euro states. Greek military hardware(reduced value), transferred to possession of other nations. Greek territory, ceded to Euro states. Hell, if it takes it then lots of Greeks have two functional kidneys. Just start selling them in black market. I care not how they come up with compensation, as long as Greeks pay Greek debts in one way or form.

And once they have, I am willing to bet that Greek society will never, ever again accept such economical behavior that led them to this. So it is very educational for them as well.


Which is BS for example for Finland. Finns did not have multibillion euro risks. Now we have multiple billions of toxic Greek debts hanging on our necks. And Greeks want that we pay that debt and they keep failing their economy, expecting us to bail them out AGAIN.

I have to say, you definitely make a good case for Greece not paying back its debts.

[Tiwaz]

I have to say, you definitely make a good case for Greece not paying back its debts.

And I have long noticed that Greeks never planned to do that anyway. What I say, is that EU forces Greece to pay it's debt. Or cry and pay.

Give me one reason why I, as one of the people who have to pay YOUR debts, should feel any other way than I do now? Come on. One really good reason.

No, solidarity is not one. Specially considering how from Finnish POV this "solidarity" crap appears to be one way street.

You know, usually investors are practical people, better to get back 60% of what I lent than nothing and this is the case of Greece. If they continue like this they will never pay the debt back for one reason or another so better get used to the idea of losing some, when you lent money with such high interests you accepted the risk.

I think you do not really grasp it.
Nations who have loaned money or guaranteed have to pay 100% or they are considered to default.
As it is, Greece has received lots of interest free time and prolonged payment schedules.

And guess who does NOT receive those? Nations that had to/have to take loans for Greeks. Yay! Terms for Greece are in many ways much better than terms nations who have the debts pushed on receive.

[RNV]

Listen, law is not unbreakable and since States are not bound to anything since they are soverign this is even more true for them.

Now, as general rule I agree with you that you have to give back everything you borrowed but sometimes it is impossible, this is one of those situation. Does it make a default? Yes. Is it a tragedy? No. States and companies default often, it's in the range of possibility, what will you do if Greece stops paying interests? Bring them at a court? Mean nothing as no one can oblige a State to do something ( of course there are consequences for this, I know) no court has any right towards any State if that State does'nt recognize it. Do you invade them? Do you confiscate all Greek citizen's properties in your country?

This is defined as Systemic Risk in finance, it is the risk that is not manageable by anyone, Greece can't pay all that back in any way ( because imposing other sacrifices is immoral and counter productive) if we agree to solve the issue as gentlemen they get a pardon of maybe, 30% of debt and we get back the rest, if not we will not get anything. It is irrelevant now to talk about how things started, I think greeks have their (big) share of guilt by having lived above their means, but Germany, France, Italy and Europe in general have their too: first of all they should have never be admitted in the € and they should'nt have coocked the books.

Lending money is a risky business, and a State without an autonomous monetary policy is fundamentally like a very large company so it is not perfectly reliable.

[alhoon]

Give me one reason why I, as one of the people who have to pay YOUR debts, should feel any other way than I do now? Come on. One really good reason.

That things are not as bad as you say. You're too pessimistic. Debt restructuring can be done without the world collapsing.