Violent crime in the US is lowest it's been in decades, FBI report shows

[Nakura]

A report by the FBI shows that gun ownership is on the rise and crime is on the decline. If one were to believe the media and some posters on this forum, you would think crime were at an all-time high and rising, yet the facts paint a different picture. What are your thoughts on the FBI's report?




Read More:
http://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2014...-2013-released
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/n...110-story.html
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...Soared-In-2013

[Dr Zoidberg]

...gun ownership is on the rise and crime is on the decline.

Clearly, somebody has heard of "correlation does not imply causation."

[Raubritter]

Clearly, somebody has heard of "correlation does not imply causation."

Other statistics show also that where Gun ownership is going up, crime is going down. Crime and violence go down in the US since decades. There are now late Teenagers who never where even in a fist fight. In some part the Murder rate is going down also because of modern medicine, that saves many gun shot vicitims for example that would count as murder victims otherwise.

[[Tar]Naru33]

Other statistics show also that where Gun ownership is going up, crime is going down. Crime and violence go down in the US since decades. There are now late Teenagers who never where even in a fist fight. In some part the Murder rate is going down also because of modern medicine, that saves many gun shot vicitims for example that would count as murder victims otherwise.

A report by the FBI shows that gun ownership is on the rise and crime is on the decline. If one were to believe the media and some posters on this forum, you would think crime were at an all-time high and rising, yet the facts paint a different picture. What are your thoughts on the FBI's report?




Read More:
http://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2014...-2013-released
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/n...110-story.html
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...Soared-In-2013

Violent crime in U.S has been decreasing for awhile now, I doubt gun ownership is the reason.

[Raubritter]

Violent crime in U.S has been decreasing for awhile now, I doubt gun ownership is the reason.

You can doubt that but that doesn't change how it is. I wish you people would be more foreward honest about why you say thinks like that. Just say it: You don't like guns and i will not accept that privat gunownership makes a society more secure. Just say it, don't flip around that core.
At least we finaly are moving away from that "more guns lead to more crime" crap.

[Roma_Victrix]

While I doubt that gun ownership alone is the reason for the drop in crime altogether (especially violent crime), I see no problems with gun ownership so long as it is done responsibly and out of reach of children. I'd describe myself as progressive and liberal when it comes to just about every social matter, health care, and the environment, but that does not extend to gun rights. As much as I abhor the mass shootings at schools in my country (the US), where guns were obtained even from legal gun owners like family members, I still feel that it is not the government's business to regulate who owns what in their own household. I suppose on that one issue I'm a Libertarian.

I do believe in sensible background checks for criminal records or history of mental illness, though. I guess on that issue I am not at all in step with the NRA lobby.

[Raubritter]

Thanks for telling us about your attitude, feelings and the evil NRA.

[Aanker]

iPhone ownership has gone up since the beginning of the 2000s, yet crime has gone down. Apple, religion of pacifism.

Actually that was a pretty bad analogy but it relates to the previously mentioned 'correlation does not imply causation' statement.

However, what can be said against that is that the common assertion that guns cause violence is then rendered somewhat weaker because if causation was true, then we would expect more guns to cause more violence ('dose-response').

Yet again, there may be a delay between cause and effect because those increased gun sales have only concentrated weaponry in a select group of normally law abiding citizens, who may then re-sell their weaponry to less reliable users, thereby increasing crime. Or, they don't re-sell their purchased guns, in which case the increase in gun sales doesn't equate an increase in gun-owning people, merely being the result of an increased weaponry concentration in the aforementilned select few enthusiasts. I believe that the latter scenario is offered as the explanation for the increased gun sales.

So what is the conclusion? We can't really conclude anything without a long-term study of the link between gun ownership and crime, except that from a statistical point of view the link between gun sales (specifically) and violent crime is slightly weaker. Of course, without knowing the original strength of the link that is really a non-statement. Weaker than what?

[Himster]

More unwanted pregnancies are being aborted, it's undeniable that unwanted children born into poverty or incompetent/unwilling parents are more likely to turn to a life of crime/drug-abuse.
There are so many correlations and possible causes for the lowering of crime rates: improved race relations, increased spending on education, increased gun ownership, wider access to amenities and public transport, more entertainment and lower rates of boredom, the recent social taboo of violent discipline/abuse applied to children, higher rates of acceptance for soft drug use, better opportunities for immigrants etc. etc. etc.
There's no way to just point at one correlation as "the cause", we simply have to continue with as many improvements as possible.

[Roma_Victrix]

Thanks for telling us about your attitude, feelings and the evil NRA.

So what exactly are you implying here? That you're in favor of doing away with background checks?

Mind you, I don't believe background checks should apply for everyone who has a criminal record, only those who were incarcerated for violent crimes, like rape, abuse, assault and battery, and murder. If the NRA had their way, there wouldn't even be background checks for these animals. Hell, if the NRA had their way, there wouldn't even be background checks for those on the Terrorist Watch List, those who support or are involved in terrorism! For that reason the NRA is stupid and blindly want to get rid of all regulation, no matter how sensible. I believe a man has a right to own an AR-15 or any semi-automatic assault rifle in his own home, but I don't think we should allow suspected Islamic terrorists to stroll into a store and buy one whenever they like.

[Mementomoridc]

iPhone ownership has gone up since the beginning of the 2000s, yet crime has gone down. Apple, religion of pacifism.

Actually that was a pretty bad analogy but it relates to the previously mentioned 'correlation does not imply causation' statement.

However, what can be said against that is that the common assertion that guns cause violence is then rendered somewhat weaker because if causation was true, then we would expect more guns to cause more violence ('dose-response').

Yet again, there may be a delay between cause and effect because those increased gun sales have only concentrated weaponry in a select group of normally law abiding citizens, who may then re-sell their weaponry to less reliable users, thereby increasing crime. Or, they don't re-sell their purchased guns, in which case the increase in gun sales doesn't equate an increase in gun-owning people, merely being the result of an increased weaponry concentration in the aforementilned select few enthusiasts. I believe that the latter scenario is offered as the explanation for the increased gun sales.

So what is the conclusion? We can't really conclude anything without a long-term study of the link between gun ownership and crime, except that from a statistical point of view the link between gun sales (specifically) and violent crime is slightly weaker. Of course, without knowing the original strength of the link that is really a non-statement. Weaker than what?

Holy crap a person with brain cells and the balls to speak reason instead of tossing crap back and forth from one point of view to another. Are you a golden unicorn that craps diamonds?

As for my openion on the topic. in no way shape or form are more guns helping lower crime. the gun sales that are going up are legal gun sales which anyone who is not a moron would not use in a crime. The concept of more guns means it is less likely for criminals to do things is also a abstract thought which makes little true sense. You are taking a idea which is ment for nation states not wanting to go to war with a powerful rival to that drunk guy down the street not trying to steal my tv cause i own a gun rack.

[Roma_Victrix]

Holy crap a person with brain cells and the balls to speak reason instead of tossing crap back and forth from one point of view to another. Are you a golden unicorn that craps diamonds?

Give that man the +1 rep that he deserves. It really was a great post, straight to the point, like a hot knife through butter.

[Phier]

Guns are basically illegal in Chicago and we are in top billing for "murder capital USA" year after year.

Bears suck too.

Bad year, bad year.

[Roma_Victrix]

Guns are basically illegal in Chicago and we are in top billing for "murder capital USA" year after year.

Bears suck too.

Bad year, bad year.

That's a great point. Outlawing weapons does not exactly ensure that they don't find themselves in the hands of criminals, because there is an obvious black market for them, and I'm not just talking about Dick and Jane's private gun show located down the road that provides such a loophole in background checks. Outlawing guns for everyone basically ensures that law-abiding citizens aren't able to defend themselves properly in their own homes, aside from the gory business of having to close in on a would-be perpetrator with a butcher knife. I would say the vast majority of people don't have the stomach for that.

[Phier]

That's a great point. Outlawing weapons does not exactly ensure that they don't find themselves in the hands of criminals, because there is an obvious black market for them, and I'm not just talking about Dick and Jane's private gun show located down the road that provides such a loophole in background checks. Outlawing guns for everyone basically ensures that law-abiding citizens aren't able to defend themselves properly in their own homes, aside from the gory business of having to close in on a would-be perpetrator with a butcher knife. I would say the vast majority of people don't have the stomach for that.

Our state overwhelmingly passed a concealed carry law recently, and the state is run by democrats so that means we know we have a problem. I'm not sure how this affects the city of Chicago directly though, if their ban supersedes it.

Hmm interesting... just saw this..

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...n-pe/?page=all

Since Illinois started granting concealed carry permits this year, the number of robberies that have led to arrests in Chicago has declined 20 percent from last year, according to police department statistics. Reports of burglary and motor vehicle theft are down 20 percent and 26 percent, respectively. In the first In the first quarter, the city’s homicide rate was at a 56-year low.

Didn't know that.

[Heathen Hammer]

Clearly, somebody has heard of "correlation does not imply causation."

Actually there is a causation, given how you are less likely to rob a place when you realize there can be people there just happy to shoot you.

[Vanoi]

Actually there is a causation, given how you are less likely to rob a place when you realize there can be people there just happy to shoot you.

That doesn't stop a burglary from happening every 15 minutes in the US.


Guns have nothing to do with the crime rate decreasing. The more telling statistic is that as the rate of imprisonment fell in 32 states, so did the crime rate.

[Phier]

Guns have nothing to do with the crime rate decreasing. The more telling statistic is that as the rate of imprisonment fell in 32 states, so did the crime rate.

So its not that guns lower crime rate, its that less people in prison, lower crime rate?

Ok....... this should be a fun explanation....

[Heathen Hammer]

That doesn't stop a burglary from happening every 15 minutes in the US.

Depends which states. States with harshest gun laws have the highest crime rates and visa versa.

Guns have nothing to do with the crime rate decreasing. The more telling statistic is that as the rate of imprisonment fell in 32 states, so did the crime rate.

Because nobody cares whether they can get shot or not. Sure...

[Vanoi]

So its not that guns lower crime rate, its that less people in prison, lower crime rate?

Ok....... this should be a fun explanation....

Guns don't lower or increase crime rate. Gun ownership does not correlate with gun crime.

I know this is hard to understand Phier but crimes still happen in prison. And US prisons are over-crowded which has led to increases in homicides, rapes, and other violent crimes. Less prisoners in over-crowded prisons helps deal with the violence.