ISIL War in Iraq and Syria

[Pielstick]

shooting down a Russian jet is among the most stupid things Turkey could do.

Almost as stupid as violating the airspace of a NATO member whilst on combat operations - after being warned time and time again not to do so.

Nevertheless, as Adar says, wet dreams of Russian retaliation are just that.

[Nikitn]

No one reported that the jet spent 5 minutes in that 2 km patch. The border was violated 10 times withing 5 minutes.

The direct quote is "the airplane {allegedly} received 10 warnings within 5 minutes". Why would the Su-24 violate the border 10 times ??? These are aircraft, not helicopters doing attack runs. As far as I know they release their load on their designated targets and go home.

Almost as stupid as violating the airspace of a NATO member whilst on combat operations - after being warned time and time again not to do so.

Nevertheless, as Adar says, wet dreams of Russian retaliation are just that.

lol pielstick, let's try to avoid retarded logic, OK? I know you have an axe to grind with Putin, but even you must admit that even if this aircraft violated the Turkish airspace, it was obviously no threat to Turkey. So why create this huge diplomatic incident over something so insignificant?

I also wouldn't be so sure about retaliation if I were you. What would stop the FSB from paying a visit to those responsible in a few years time?

[Adar]

Regarding anyone having wet dreams about Russian retaliation against Turkey it is worth pointing out that Turkey is the most powerful military power in the region.

The Russian air to air assets in the region consist of 4 Ss-30SM and 6 multi role Su-34 which can be compared to 19 Turkish fighter squadrons of F-16s not to mention the American and French presence in the area which is pretty significant compared to the Russian forces available.

[PointOfViewGun]

The direct quote is "the airplane {allegedly} received 10 warnings within 5 minutes". Why would the Su-24 violate the border 10 times ??? These are aircraft, not helicopters doing attack runs. As far as I know they release their load on their designated targets and go home.

Nobody said it was the same plane either which did all the violations either. Plus, I'm not a Russian Air Force commander.

EDIT: Earlier I said it wrong. The plane wasn't reported to violate the border 10 times. The plane was warned 10 times within 5 minutes.

[Adar]

Regarding the potential economic losses from Turkey preventing its territory from being used to attack Turkmen. It is worth pointing out that Russian tourism is already in steep decline due to declining oil prices and recurring issues with keeping on their own bloody side of the border. So missing out of some of the worst tourists in the world is hardly something that prevent Turkey from protecting the Turkmen in Syria at least from attacks over Turkish territory.

[Grobar]

Regarding anyone having wet dreams about Russian retaliation against Turkey it is worth pointing out that Turkey is the most powerful military power in the region.

The Russian air to air assets in the region consist of 4 Ss-30SM and 6 multi role Su-34 which can be compared to 19 Turkish fighter squadrons of F-16s not to mention the American and French presence in the area which is pretty significant compared to the Russian forces available.

Russian supersonic missiles fired from Caspian see can destroy all those planes before they take off. There is no defense against it.

[Pielstick]

lol pielstick, let's try to avoid retarded logic, OK? I know you have an axe to grind with Putin, but even you must admit that even if this aircraft violated the Turkish airspace, it was obviously no threat to Turkey. So why create this huge diplomatic incident over something so insignificant?

I also wouldn't be so sure about retaliation if I were you. What would stop the FSB from paying a visit to those responsible in a few years time?

What's retarded about my logic?

If you don't want to have your planes shot down by Turkey don't fly armed combat aircraft on combat operations into Turkish airspace, especially when you've been warned about it.

Either the Russian aircrew made a navigational error and strayed into Turkish airspace, there is insufficient oversight for Russian mission planning, or the Russian AF is wilfully flying its aircraft into Turkish airspace. Whatever the case the Su-24 should not have been in Turkish airspace and I've no doubt you would be crowing about "Russia Stronk!" if the roles were reversed.

If the Russians genuinely want to avoid antagonising a NATO member they wouldn't be conducting combat operations so close to the border.

Once again I agree with Adar, Turkey has the second largest military in NATO. Turkey alone is more than capable of giving Russia a bloody nose. However, nobody is going to start a war over the shooting down of a piddling Su-24. Erdogan will be taken aside by other NATO members and quietly told to put his cock back in his pants. Putin will take his shirt off and mud wrestle a bear or something for his domestic media and will quietly tell his air force to be a lot more careful about where they fly in the future.

Russian supersonic missiles fired from Caspian see can destroy all those planes before they take off. There is no defense against it.

And in doing so the Russians would give Turkey an extremely compelling reason to invoke NATO Article 5, and one that the rest of NATO would find impossible to ignore.

You're Serbian, you've got a beef with NATO. I understand that. However, Russia is not going to start a war it can't win.

[caratacus]

Looks like Russia was targeting Turkomen and their jet partly strayed over Turkish territory. Why they are doing so, given that it was IS that targeted that airliner, is baffling. Its especially provocative given Erdogan's warning some days ago about not bombing the Turkoman. But given the failure to create a safe zone along the Turkish border for refugees, expect Russia now to target the Turkomens even more, if anything to antagonize Turkey as a response to their downed jet.

Anyone that wonders how an organisation like IS was allowed to develop, just look at how these two nations behave and you realise how! Not only did relations between Turkey and Russia go down with that jet, but also any hope of setting up a united front against IS.

[Pielstick]

Anyone that wonders how an organisation like IS was allowed to develop, just look at how these two nations behave and you realise how!

Absolutely. The situation in Syria is unbelievably ed up. Between Assad, the so called "moderate rebel groups", IS, Al-Nusrah, Russia, Turkey, the US/UK/France/NATO.... there really are no good guys in this fight.

[Grobar]

[QUOTE=Pielstick;14777289]

Either the Russian aircrew made a navigational error and strayed into Turkish airspace, there is insufficient oversight for Russian mission planning, or the Russian AF is wilfully flying its aircraft into Turkish airspace. Whatever the case the Su-24 should not have been in Turkish airspace and I've no doubt you would be crowing about "Russia Stronk!" if the roles were reversed.

Or russian plane never flew over turkish territory but they shot it down because it was targeting Turkmen in Syria.

Once again I agree with Adar, Turkey has the second largest military in NATO. Turkey alone is more than capable of giving Russia a bloody nose. However, nobody is going to start a war over the shooting down of a piddling Su-24. Erdogan will be taken aside by other NATO members and quietly told to put his cock back in his pants. Putin will take his shirt off and mud wrestle a bear or something for his domestic media and will quietly tell his air force to be a lot more careful about where they fly in the future.

Some repercussions will happen. No need for any rushed emotional actions. Afterall revenge is dish best served cold

[Adar]

Kremlinist puppy news Lifenews.ru got a pretty interesting take on the situation.

Source (Russian)
Russian military space forces suffered the first loss in Syria.


According to the preliminary version of the Russian Defense Ministry, the plane was attacked from the ground. Experts immediately linked the incident to the recent reports on the supply of terrorists LIH modified anti-aircraft missiles from Ukraine on orders from Washington. Immediately it should be noted that man-portable air defense systems cannot hit a target at an altitude of six thousand meters. It turns out that if it is confirmed that the Su-24 was attacked from the ground, then the use terrorists used a Ukrainian SAM.


Later it was reported that Russian bomber was attacked by the Turkish multi-purpose F-16 fighters. At the same time Turks persistently emphasize that the Russian fighter violated Turkish airspace.


If this was the place to be, that in such cases there is a clear procedure, the parties, whose borders had been violated. Departing fighters and establish the connection, including the line of sight, with the crew of the intruder aircraft, because it is always possible that the plane refused navigation equipment or broken control system. And only after that, making sure that it is not in trouble, trying to push fighters escort the offender from its airspace or forced to land on its airfield. If the aircraft continues to fly deep into the country, then opened fire warning shots and only after that should it attack the aircraft.


Nothing of the Turkish fighter not fulfilled. The blow was struck suddenly, without warning, and even more, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, over Syrian territory.


What are the motives of such actions in Turkey as a NATO member?


There are several.


Firstly, Turkey is on the side of LIH against the Kurds. Secondly, it has a huge number of cheap oil from influential groups. Thirdly, Turkey, as a member of NATO, is completely under the control of the United States.


Let us ask ourselves: What is our Su-24 at the time of his attack the Turkish side? He bombed a caravan of oil trucks on their way to Turkey! That is actually burning oil revenues from the sale of "terrorist oil." But these flows are completely controlled by the American special services through their people in the grouping extremists.

So Ukrainian agents collaborate with Turkish military forces in order to protect ISIS oil revenues in Turkmen territory. Seems reasonable and highly credible considering that Lifenews must have excellent connections with the Russian airforce to obtain detailed operational plans so quickly.

Once again I agree with Adar, Turkey has the second largest military in NATO. Turkey alone is more than capable of giving Russia a bloody nose. However, nobody is going to start a war over the shooting down of a piddling Su-24. Erdogan will be taken aside by other NATO members and quietly told to put his cock back in his pants. Putin will take his shirt off and mud wrestle a bear or something for his domestic media and will quietly tell his air force to be a lot more careful about where they fly in the future.

Seems like a pretty accurate description of the future.

[Nikitn]

Let's keep in mind there is no proof that the plane even entered Turkish air space.

What's retarded about my logic?

If you don't want to have your planes shot down by Turkey don't fly armed combat aircraft on combat operations into Turkish airspace, especially when you've been warned about it.

Either the Russian aircrew made a navigational error and strayed into Turkish airspace, there is insufficient oversight for Russian mission planning, or the Russian AF is wilfully flying its aircraft into Turkish airspace. Whatever the case the Su-24 should not have been in Turkish airspace and I've no doubt you would be crowing about "Russia Stronk!" if the roles were reversed.

If the Russians genuinely want to avoid antagonising a NATO member they wouldn't be conducting combat operations so close to the border.

Once again I agree with Adar, Turkey has the second largest military in NATO. Turkey alone is more than capable of giving Russia a bloody nose. However, nobody is going to start a war over the shooting down of a piddling Su-24. Erdogan will be taken aside by other NATO members and quietly told to put his cock back in his pants. Putin will take his shirt off and mud wrestle a bear or something for his domestic media and will quietly tell his air force to be a lot more careful about where they fly in the future.



And in doing so the Russians would give Turkey an extremely compelling reason to invoke NATO Article 5, and one that the rest of NATO would find impossible to ignore.

I'm sorry, but your entire argument seems to be "Russian jet barely strayed into Turkish airspace {which is absolutely not a difficult thing to do for any air force, hence not stupid} => Turkey did the right thing in shooting it down. If you can't understand why this argument is absolutely retarded, especially after I wrote a paragraph on the very serious immediate consequences this will have for Turkey, there is no point in arguing with you. In fact let's be honest, the reason you support Turkey on this is simply because you are glad a Russian jet was shot down.

And nope, I would absolutely not be happy if the roles were reversed. But I guess that's just because I'm not an insane moron.

[Adar]

Let's keep in mind there is no proof that the plane even entered Turkish air space.

Except for the radar track and numerous past transgressions you mean.

[Nikitn]

Except for the radar track and numerous past transgressions you mean.

Are we talking about the Turkish excuse presented as a radar track, and the (single) transgression in October?

As I said, there is no proof. Why don't you go and cry a bit more about how the Russian tourists aren't important for Turkey?

[Pielstick]

Or russian plane never flew over turkish territory but they shot it down because it was targeting Turkmen in Syria.

After MH17 I eagerly await somebody to post some Google Earth imagery with a Su-30 Photoshopped in on the Syrian side of the border as absolute evidence this was the case.

I'm sorry, but your entire argument seems to be "Russian jet barely strayed into Turkish airspace

No pal, that's your argument.

My argument is if when do do X and somebody warns you Y will happen, if you choose to ignore that and Y does eventually happen, don't cry over it and paint yourself as the innocent victim.

In fact let's be honest, the reason you support Turkey on this is simply because you are glad a Russian jet was shot down.

And a nice attempt to paint me as a terrible Russophobe.

Go and review my posting history. I'm actually pretty damn sympathetic towards the Russian cause in Ukraine. I must be a pretty bad Russophobe!

The cold, hard truth is Russia just lost a game of chicken with a NATO member. When you take dumb risks like this you have to accept eventually something like this will happen.

[Costin_Razvan]

Regarding some wet dreams about Russian retaliation it is worth pointing out that Russian air supremacy forces are pretty meagre.

It's not a wet dream, just a point made that those F-16s Turkey uses to patrol the border region may soon find themselves with a SU-30 firing at their asses.

Whether or not Putin wants to escalate is another matter, but you can be damned sure Russia won't be sending bombers without escorts now.

[Adar]

After MH17 I eagerly await somebody to post some Google Earth imagery with a Su-30 Photoshopped in on the Syrian side of the border as absolute evidence this was the case.

Way ahead of you.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Source

It's not a wet dream, just a point made that those F-16s Turkey uses to patrol the border region may soon find themselves with a SU-30 firing at their asses.

Whether or not Putin wants to escalate is another matter, but you can be damned sure Russia won't be sending bombers without escorts now.

Right now Russia only got access to 4 dedicated escorts and 6 fighter-bombers. Not bombing Turkmen and focus on ISIS instead would make a lot more sense if Russia was actually trying to achieve what they claim to be working towards.

[PointOfViewGun]

Are we talking about the Turkish excuse presented as a radar track, and the (single) transgression in October?

As I said, there is no proof. Why don't you go and cry a bit more about how the Russian tourists aren't important for Turkey?

What classifies as proof for you?

[Costin_Razvan]

Right now Russia only got access to 4 dedicated escorts and 6 fighter-bombers. Not bombing Turkmen and focus on ISIS instead would make a lot more sense if Russia was actually trying to achieve what they claim to be working towards.

ISIS will never be defeated by air raids, anyone claiming otherwise is a delusional moron. You need ground forces and the Kurds do not have the necessary numbers to make a victory happen, so the Syrian armed forces need to be able to defeat or at least weaken the "rebels" until they can then turn against the IS ( which incidentally is threatening Damascus so don't shove any bile about Assad not caring about fighting the IS ).

Tell me exactly how bombing rebels allied with Al-Qaeda is somehow a worse idea then bombing ISIS?

[Nikitn]

A
No pal, that's your argument.

My argument is if when do do X and somebody warns you Y will happen, if you choose to ignore that and Y does eventually happen, don't cry over it and paint yourself as the innocent victim.

Did you forget to read the part "{which is absolutely not a difficult thing to do for any air force, hence not stupid}" ? Extremely minor violations like this can easily happen to anyone, if it indeed really did happen today. Let's try to be non-retarded, this is literally an insignificant violation.

And let's be honest, in essence you support what Turkey did. Stop trying to hide it.

What classifies as proof for you?

When the crash site (which is deep in Syrian territory, by the way) is investigated by investigators and the ballistics properly determined.