Steam, Statistically Speaking

[the_eye]

Back in April Ars Technica published the first in a short series of articles about an experiment they were running which they dubbed Steam Gauge. Steam Gauge involved sampling publicly available information from large numbers of randomly selected Steam accounts to gain a good approximation of the number of owners and play time of Steam games. There were many calls for Ars to release their raw data, which as far as I know they never did. In response to these calls one commentator pointed out that the process was probably easy to replicate and that others would likely do so in short order. Over the past fortnight I've been doing exactly that. I'm now ready to present some of my findings.

Before we delve into graphs and figures first a brief discussion of what is available. As Ars discovered, about six percent of profiles are private, and no data is available for these. From the remaining profiles we can see which games they own, how many minutes they have played each of those games, when they last played each of those games, and how many minutes they have played of each of those games in the past two weeks.

In a follow up article Ars published the total owners and players of the top 100 most played Steam games. To start with, here's how my latest stats compare with theirs:

My Data (4/9/14)	-	-	Ars' Data (17/4/14)	-	-	-	-	-
Game	Players	Owners	Game	Players	Owners	Position in Ars' Data	Players Growth	Owners Growth
Dota 2 (appid:570)	30,888,675	31,109,028	Dota 2	25,926,966	25,926,966	1	19.1%	20.0%
Team Fortress 2 (appid:440)	20,193,686	20,252,293	Team Fortress 2	20,297,606	20,297,606	2	-0.5%	-0.2%
Counter-Strike: Source (appid:240)	8,358,912	11,299,961	Counter-Strike: Source	8,927,294	11,990,057	3	-6.4%	-5.8%
Left 4 Dead 2 (appid:550)	7,963,370	9,593,644	Left 4 Dead 2	8,590,676	10,713,676	4	-7.3%	-10.5%
Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (appid:730)	6,449,888	6,756,786	Counter-Strike	6,656,737	9,784,056	7	19.0%	14.8%
Counter-Strike (appid:10)	6,244,029	9,207,134	The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim	5,664,405	5,942,000	5	-6.2%	-5.9%
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (appid:72850)	5,919,067	6,258,524	Counter-Strike: Global Offensive	5,418,167	5,885,743	6	4.5%	5.3%
Sid Meier's Civilization V (appid:8930)	5,351,485	5,766,353	Sid Meier's Civilization® V	5,353,610	5,838,709	8	0.0%	-1.2%
Garry's Mod (appid:4000)	5,167,052	5,745,137	Portal	4,971,802	7,357,640	10	11.9%	7.3%
Unturned (appid:304930)	4,996,484	6,294,864	Garry's Mod	4,619,506	5,354,532	New Entry	-	-
Portal (appid:400)	4,619,846	6,697,549	Half-Life 2	4,144,552	8,051,165	9	-7.1%	-9.0%
Portal 2 (appid:620)	4,121,164	4,780,752	Portal 2	4,125,185	4,879,578	12	-0.1%	-2.0%
Terraria (appid:105600)	3,845,356	4,222,203	Alien Swarm	3,814,389	3,814,389	15	4.3%	7.3%
Half-Life 2 (appid:220)	3,803,134	7,391,797	Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 2	3,728,621	4,197,120	11	-8.2%	-8.2%
Alien Swarm (appid:630)	3,562,825	3,579,210	Terraria	3,685,276	3,933,359	13	-6.6%	-6.2%
Borderlands 2 (appid:49520)	3,558,204	3,978,744	Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 2 - Multiplayer	3,508,205	4,197,120	20	24.2%	27.2%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (appid:10180)	3,369,360	3,837,583	PlanetSide 2	3,435,348	3,435,348	14	-9.6%	-8.6%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 - Multiplayer (appid:10190)	3,241,013	3,841,155	Warframe	3,371,714	3,371,714	16	-7.6%	-8.5%
Counter-Strike: Condition Zero (appid:80)	2,630,159	6,796,487	APB Reloaded	2,966,850	2,966,850	23	-6.4%	-5.5%
Call of Duty: Black Ops (appid:42700)	2,556,848	2,749,683	Borderlands 2	2,865,403	3,127,320	22	-9.7%	-9.2%
Half-Life 2: Deathmatch (appid:320)	2,455,600	9,911,675	Spiral Knights	2,858,025	2,858,025	24	-10.6%	-10.0%
Call of Duty: Black Ops - Multiplayer (appid:42710)	2,228,525	2,749,053	Call of Duty®: Black Ops	2,832,203	3,027,718	27	-9.5%	-9.1%
DayZ (appid:221100)	2,218,022	2,253,102	Counter-Strike: Condition Zero	2,810,069	7,190,714	50	29.1%	29.2%
Empire: Total War (appid:10500)	2,216,131	2,459,381	Half-Life 2: Deathmatch	2,747,356	11,015,248	29	-7.9%	-8.3%
Fallout: New Vegas (appid:22380)	2,203,528	2,589,198	Loadout	2,685,566	2,685,566	33	-0.7%	-1.6%
Left 4 Dead (appid:500)	2,201,427	2,656,627	Left 4 Dead	2,485,440	3,048,007	26	-11.4%	-12.8%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (appid:42680)	2,191,344	2,486,478	Call of Duty®: Black Ops - Multiplayer	2,461,462	3,024,951	30	-7.7%	-7.5%
Magicka (appid:42910)	2,158,785	2,619,026	Blacklight: Retribution	2,448,550	2,448,550	32	-3.4%	-5.7%
Grand Theft Auto IV (appid:12210)	2,151,013	2,672,591	Empire: Total War™	2,406,127	2,681,877	37	2.0%	0.7%
Day of Defeat: Source (appid:300)	2,143,240	4,950,691	Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 3	2,373,849	2,687,411	31	-9.1%	-12.1%
PAYDAY 2 (appid:218620)	2,097,447	2,285,451	Day of Defeat: Source	2,357,248	5,632,127	62	43.9%	46.9%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - Multiplayer (appid:42690)	2,079,592	2,489,419	Magicka	2,233,668	2,776,868	34	-6.2%	-7.6%
Killing Floor (appid:1250)	2,044,722	2,269,276	Fallout: New Vegas	2,218,912	2,630,232	41	2.8%	-3.8%
Metro 2033 (appid:43110)	2,042,202	3,145,436	Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 3 - Multiplayer	2,217,068	2,692,944	39	-2.2%	-2.7%
Arma 2: Operation Arrowhead (appid:33930)	2,001,030	2,759,346	America's Army 3	2,150,666	2,150,666	43	8.4%	3.7%
Half-Life 2: Lost Coast (appid:340)	1,988,846	11,618,412	Half-Life 2: Lost Coast	2,120,232	12,769,351	36	-6.2%	-9.0%
Saints Row: The Third (appid:55230)	1,982,755	2,486,058	Grand Theft Auto IV	2,109,166	2,653,288	38	-5.5%	-4.0%
Torchlight II (appid:200710)	1,941,163	2,145,971	Saints Row: The Third	2,099,021	2,590,575	40	-6.0%	-6.0%
BioShock Infinite (appid:8870)	1,905,453	2,530,171	Metro 2033	2,087,954	3,233,378	47	7.0%	14.7%
Dead Island (appid:91310)	1,852,097	2,180,841	Torchlight II	2,064,898	2,283,469	45	3.4%	4.6%
Just Cause 2 (appid:8190)	1,818,908	2,450,978	Killing Floor	1,988,352	2,360,015	46	2.0%	3.1%
Sniper Elite V2 (appid:63380)	1,815,337	2,900,296	Total War: SHOGUN 2	1,871,227	2,044,609	New Entry	-	-
Total War: SHOGUN 2 (appid:34330)	1,739,505	1,912,175	ARMA II: Operation Arrowhead	1,845,405	2,661,588	42	-7.0%	-6.5%
Half-Life 2: Episode One (appid:380)	1,678,378	4,344,248	No More Room in Hell	1,799,293	1,799,293	49	-2.6%	-9.7%
Rust (appid:252490)	1,671,446	1,702,955	Dead Island	1,790,992	2,084,265	61	13.9%	13.4%
Chivalry: Medieval Warfare (appid:219640)	1,628,804	1,777,316	Just Cause 2	1,782,692	2,377,538	59	4.4%	5.8%
Tomb Raider (appid:203160)	1,612,419	1,978,764	BioShock Infinite	1,780,848	2,206,001	65	14.2%	16.5%
Borderlands (appid:8980)	1,575,869	1,784,668	Realm of the Mad God	1,755,947	1,755,947	55	-1.7%	0.7%
Deus Ex: Human Revolution (appid:28050)	1,530,286	1,891,169	Half-Life 2: Episode One	1,722,746	4,813,177	New Entry	-	-
DC Universe Online (appid:24200)	1,529,025	1,539,528	DayZ	1,718,135	1,743,958	53	-6.0%	-5.3%
The Binding of Isaac (appid:113200)	1,528,605	1,760,301	Path of Exile	1,700,613	1,700,613	56	-3.4%	-6.1%
Robocraft (appid:301520)	1,525,454	2,127,276	Warhammer® 40,000™: Dawn of War® II	1,633,289	2,039,075	New Entry	-	-
Half-Life 2: Episode Two (appid:420)	1,508,229	3,816,788	DC Universe™ Online Free-To-Play. Your Way.®	1,625,911	1,625,911	54	-6.7%	-10.6%
XCOM: Enemy Unknown (appid:200510)	1,494,576	1,775,636	Half-Life 2: Episode Two	1,616,689	4,269,977	63	3.0%	7.2%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Multiplayer (appid:202990)	1,493,315	1,782,988	Borderlands	1,603,777	1,771,625	New Entry	-	-
Warhammer\u00ae 40000\u2122: Dawn of War\u00ae II (appid:15620)	1,467,898	1,844,325	The Binding of Isaac	1,582,566	1,873,994	52	-10.1%	-9.6%
FTL: Faster Than Light (appid:212680)	1,425,256	1,701,064	War Thunder	1,581,644	1,581,644	68	7.0%	3.0%
The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition (appid:20920)	1,393,327	2,042,832	Gotham City Impostors Free to Play	1,580,721	1,580,721	79	17.5%	18.4%
Dishonored (appid:205100)	1,386,395	1,689,301	Chivalry: Medieval Warfare	1,560,432	1,680,323	92	27.8%	31.1%
Far Cry\u00ae 3 (appid:220240)	1,377,152	1,639,097	Alliance of Valiant Arms	1,498,642	1,498,642	81	17.7%	18.4%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II (appid:202970)	1,357,617	1,771,014	Rust	1,467,286	1,502,331	64	-6.4%	-3.7%
Warframe (appid:230410)	1,346,273	1,846,636	PAYDAY 2	1,458,063	1,555,821	18	-60.1%	-45.2%
Starbound (appid:211820)	1,331,569	1,370,430	XCOM: Enemy Unknown	1,450,685	1,656,345	67	-4.5%	-3.8%
Don't Starve (appid:219740)	1,276,113	1,428,197	Call of Duty®: Black Ops II	1,450,685	1,839,871	76	4.4%	7.3%
Age of Empires II: HD Edition (appid:221380)	1,270,022	1,504,238	Tomb Raider	1,411,951	1,698,768	98	21.9%	28.9%
Half-Life (appid:70)	1,265,820	4,327,443	Half-Life	1,405,496	4,813,177	66	-9.9%	-10.1%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Zombies (appid:212910)	1,245,234	1,772,065	Starbound	1,394,429	1,424,863	New Entry	-	-
Total War: ROME II (appid:214950)	1,229,480	1,291,868	FTL: Faster Than Light	1,331,716	1,651,734	80	4.0%	5.2%
Bastion (appid:107100)	1,224,018	1,606,117	Dungeon Defenders	1,310,505	1,598,244	73	-1.8%	-5.2%
Dark Souls: Prepare to Die Edition (appid:211420)	1,220,868	1,471,469	Napoleon: Total War™	1,293,904	1,600,088	85	6.4%	7.5%
BioShock (appid:7670)	1,213,305	2,021,406	Mafia II	1,253,326	1,534,609	97	16.1%	30.3%
Serious Sam HD: The Second Encounter (appid:41010)	1,209,314	1,224,018	Serious Sam HD: The Second Encounter	1,247,792	1,247,792	72	-3.1%	-1.9%
PAYDAY: The Heist (appid:24240)	1,205,953	1,375,682	Bastion	1,245,948	1,695,079	77	-0.4%	1.2%
Dungeon Defenders (appid:65800)	1,195,870	1,462,226	Super Meat Boy	1,232,114	1,490,342	69	-8.7%	-8.5%
Mafia II (appid:50130)	1,184,947	1,607,168	The Walking Dead	1,225,659	1,484,808	71	-5.5%	4.7%
Napoleon: Total War (appid:34030)	1,184,947	1,446,052	Don't Starve	1,221,970	1,330,794	70	-8.4%	-9.6%
Football Manager 2013 (appid:207890)	1,157,009	1,175,495	PAYDAY™ The Heist	1,210,903	1,359,383	New Entry	-	-
Zombie Panic Source (appid:17500)	1,154,699	1,162,891	Zombie Panic! Source	1,210,903	1,210,903	78	-4.6%	-4.0%
Loadout (appid:208090)	1,153,228	1,537,638	The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition	1,186,002	1,725,513	25	-57.1%	-42.7%
The Walking Dead (appid:207610)	1,140,625	1,355,516	Total War™: ROME II	1,182,313	1,227,503	75	-6.9%	-8.7%
Hitman: Absolution (appid:203140)	1,138,104	1,505,499	Far Cry 3	1,170,324	1,384,284	86	0.2%	7.8%
Super Meat Boy (appid:40800)	1,132,852	1,377,152	Stronghold Kingdoms	1,160,179	1,160,179	74	-8.1%	-7.6%
Mirror's Edge (appid:17410)	1,113,947	1,937,592	Tribes: Ascend	1,155,568	1,155,568	87	-0.7%	-4.9%
Arma 2 (appid:33910)	1,102,184	1,857,769	Day of Defeat	1,151,879	6,730,516	New Entry	-	-
Heroes & Generals (appid:227940)	1,098,823	1,687,411	Dark Souls™: Prepare To Die™ Edition	1,147,268	1,368,606	New Entry	-	-
Day of Defeat (appid:30)	1,091,051	6,141,940	Hitman: Absolution™	1,136,201	1,397,195	84	-5.3%	-8.7%
Rising Storm\/Red Orchestra 2 Multiplayer (appid:35450)	1,088,320	2,046,823	Mirror's Edge™	1,121,445	2,038,153	New Entry	-	-
Trine 2 (appid:35720)	1,082,858	1,701,064	Battlefield: Bad Company™ 2	1,117,756	1,165,713	91	-0.5%	-3.9%
Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (appid:24960)	1,066,474	1,124,870	War Inc. Battlezone	1,099,311	1,099,311	88	-4.6%	-3.5%
Castle Crashers (appid:204360)	1,063,953	1,301,531	Marvel Heroes	1,088,245	1,088,245	New Entry	-	-
Football Manager 2012 (appid:71270)	1,050,509	1,068,574	Trine 2: Complete Story	1,088,245	1,769,781	New Entry	-	-
Counter-Strike: Condition Zero Deleted Scenes (appid:100)	1,047,148	6,792,916	Dishonored	1,084,556	1,288,371	New Entry	-	-
Mount & Blade: Warband (appid:48700)	1,032,654	1,167,932	Amnesia: The Dark Descent	1,083,633	1,588,099	New Entry	-	-
Arma 3 (appid:107410)	1,025,512	1,048,198	Fallen Earth Free2Play	1,057,811	1,057,811	New Entry	-	-
Orcs Must Die! 2 (appid:201790)	1,018,790	1,479,871	LIMBO	1,045,821	1,589,022	New Entry	-	-
War Thunder (appid:236390)	1,014,589	1,359,087	Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition	1,045,821	1,871,227	57	-35.9%	-14.1%
PlanetSide 2 (appid:218230)	990,012	1,281,785	BioShock™	1,044,899	1,551,210	17	-71.2%	-62.7%
Sleeping Dogs\u2122 (appid:202170)	984,130	1,218,767	Age of Empires II HD	1,042,133	1,166,635	New Entry	-	-
Amnesia: The Dark Descent (appid:57300)	975,518	1,452,984	Super MNC	1,029,221	1,029,221	93	-10.0%	-8.5%
Batman: Arkham Asylum GOTY Edition (appid:35140)	969,006	1,684,890	AudioSurf	1,012,621	1,184,158	96	-7.3%	-10.0%

Two anomalies stand out immediately. A lot of games appear to have lost players and owners over time. This is clearly impossible. I believe this is probably due to different handling of private profiles. I am assuming private profiles have exactly the same distribution of game ownership as public profiles, including an equal proportion with no games owned. It is likely Ars applied a different adjustment for these profiles. Ars claim to have verified their final numbers with a number of developers and mention having 'calibrated' their method, so I believe it is likely that their numbers are more accurate and mine are too low by, on average, about 9 to 10 percent.

The second anomaly is that some free-to-play games have much lower numbers in my sample than Ars', specifically Warframe, Loadout, War Thunder and Planetside 2. I don't know why this is. It's possible there is a more significant difference in the method Ars used and that I am missing a large number of free-to-play game playing accounts. I'm confident however that my other numbers are sufficiently sound to draw conclusions from.

The first such conclusion we can draw, assuming my numbers need to be adjusted upwards by 9% to bring them in line with Ars', is that Rome II has sold approximately 180,000 copies in the last four and a half to five months. If it averages half that rate over the next two and a half years it will roughly equal Shogun 2 for sales over an equivalent period of time.

The remainder of this post will focus on a small subset of Steam games - strategy games with a historical flavour. There may be other games that could be added to this list, if you point them out and I shall consider adding them, these were simply the ones I could think of. It's important to point out that not all of these games are Steam exclusive so there will be owners and players of some games that do not show up here, probably significant numbers in some cases.

First of all, a simple owner/player number comparison:



You'll notice that some of these, like Total War: Shogun 2 - Fall of the Samurai, have zero players. That's not that nobody played them, rather it's because their play time is counted under another title (in the case of FotS, playtime is counted as Total War: Shogun 2). Next we can perhaps see why CA decided against producing a demo for Rome II - see the list of demos right at the bottom of the graph. The small numbers who have played demos certainly surprised me. I would have expected numbers at least ten times higher.

Also of interest are the pieces of DLC. Stats aren't available for all the DLC (for example, no DLC shows up for any Total War game). I suspect this is down to how the developer sets their DLC up on Steam. The percentage of owners buying DLC ranges from nearly 50% (Hearts of Iron III: German II Sprite Pack) to just over 3% (Crusader Kings II: Hymns of Abraham). I would guess about 10% would be considered a good sales percentage for a piece of DLC on average, although this will probably vary depending on game and content.

Next up are the mean and median hours per player. I've dropped all the demos and DLC from this graph to make it more manageable:



Rome II puts in a strong showing here, with a median hours figure which is joint best in class.

Next up, the percentage of owners and players who have played in the past two weeks.



Again, Rome II is near the top of the graph, although you would expect that since it's one of the more recently released titles in the group. We'll go into more detail on this later.

Now let's look at the mean and median number of hours played in the last two weeks. I've removed a number of titles from this graph because I don't have sufficient samples to give meaningful results.



Rome II once again puts in a solid showing here.

Let's look at the percentage of players who have played in the last x days. Please note that the horizontal axis is non-linear here (and for all subsequent graphs). You would also expect games released more recently to show more strongly here.



It may be fairer to compare the percentage of players relative to the number that have played at all in the past 360 days:



Even here Rome II is still amongst the frontrunners.

Now let's see how long people stick with these games, i.e. the number of people who have played for more than x hours in total. Games that were released more recently might be expected not to have as high a percentage hitting the top values.



Rome II is once again right up there, at least up to the 150 hour mark. It drops away a bit after that, but is still well above Shogun 2 at 500 hours.

Finally, the percentage of recent players who have played more than x hours in the past two weeks (again, without games with too very few samples):



Once again, Rome II is amongst the leaders.

[pyj99]

Thank you The eye


that's a great analysis

If i read this graph correctly for TW:R2 it means that a weekly peak of ~18k concurrent users means in fact 18%*1.2M= ~ 210k active users ?

that's great we were not far off in our assumption swhen we discussed TW:R2 retention rate - 6 months ago


For TW:S2 5k concurrent users is equivament to 5%*2M = ~100 k active users which is normal as they play in median 2.5 hours versus 5.5 for TW:R2 users


I am reading this correctly ?

[alQamar]

One rep is not enough! Well done!
But how do they estimate the number of active players?

Thank you The eye


that's a great analysis

If i read this graph correctly for TW:R2 it means that a weekly peak of ~18k concurrent users means in fact 18%*1.2M= ~ 210k active users ?

that's great we were not far off in our assumption swhen we discussed TW:R2 retention rate - 6 months ago


For TW:S2 5k concurrent users is equivament to 5%*2M = ~100 k active users which is normal as they play in median 2.5 hours versus 5.5 for TW:R2 users


I am reading this correctly ?

The weekly peak is (and has been for months) between 12% of the initial peak (118k) so 14160 players peak during the week and 14% (16520) on weekends.
The 18k you state is the maximum we get on a the whole week. Please keep things on the ground

[pyj99]

One rep is not enough! Well done!
But how do they estimate the number of active players?




The weekly peak is (and has been for months) between 12% of the initial peak (118k) so 14160 players peak during the week and 14% (16520) on weekends.
The 18k you state is the maximum we get on a the whole week. Please keep things on the ground

I disagree on the metrics - I think the only consistent metrics to have the analysis of total users is the week-end peak of peak of concurrent users and not the average
(because an average of concurrent users for a worldwide game makes no sense ...)

BTW with these new numbers - we don't have to care for the metrics as the-eye provided us with the actual number of players which is ~210k users

Funnily it means taht he and I were on the low side in february 2014 when we were estimating the same number based on the concurrent players - we estimated it at 200k at the time and were flamed by Hysteric Whiner and his ilk for that

[alQamar]

I disagree on the metrics - I think the only consistent metrics to have the analysis of total users is the week-end peak of peak of concurrent users and not the average
(because an average of concurrent users for a worldwide game makes no sense ...)

BTW with these new numbers - we don't have to care for the metrics as the-eye provided us with the actual number of players which is ~210k users

Funnily it means taht he and I were on the low side in february 2014 when we were estimating the same number based on the concurrent players - we estimated it at 200k at the time and were flamed by Hysteric Whiner and his ilk for that

That's not actually right imho. The terms are the same for all games and there is no need to pick the best out the week figures.
Instead of you deny to consider the weekly average you should at least be willing to use the monthly average with is about 15k.

[the_eye]

Thank you The eye


that's a great analysis

If i read this graph correctly for TW:R2 it means that a weekly peak of ~18k concurrent users means in fact 18%*1.2M= ~ 210k active users ?

that's great we were not far off in our assumption swhen we discussed TW:R2 retention rate - 6 months ago


For TW:S2 5k concurrent users is equivament to 5%*2M = ~100 k active users which is normal as they play in median 2.5 hours versus 5.5 for TW:R2 users


I am reading this correctly ?

Yes, you're reading it correctly. The actual figures are about 19.34% of those who have any time registered in Rome II have played in the past 2 weeks, or 18.41% of all those who own Rome II, which works out to about 237,000 people, or just over a quarter of a million if adjusting the total owners/players up 9% to be inline with Ars' data. For Shogun 2 the figures are 5.01% of players or 5.51% of owners, giving a total figure of about 95,000 people, or just over 104,000 with a 9% adjustment.

But how do they estimate the number of active players?

The number of Rome II owners is calculated as the number of sampled Steam accounts that own Rome II divided by the total number of sampled Steam accounts, multiplied by the total range from which samples were taken (which is larger than the total range of valid Steam accounts).
The percentage of Rome II owners playing in the past two weeks is calculated as the number of sampled Steam accounts that report hours played on Rome II in the past two weeks divided by the number of sampled Steam accounts that own Rome II.

The weekly peak is (and has been for months) between 12% of the initial peak (118k) so 14160 players peak during the week and 14% (16520) on weekends.
The 18k you state is the maximum we get on a the whole week. Please keep things on the ground

I think there's a misunderstanding here. The 18k/5k and 18%/5% are completely unrelated figures that just coincidentally happen to be the same. By contrast, for Europa Universalis a ~9k weekly peak correlates with 21.88% of owners (24.27% of players) playing in the past two weeks. The 18k/5k/9k figures come from steamgraph.net. The 18%/5%/24% figures come from my statistical sample.

[Emperor of The Great Unknown]

One thing must be noted and that it is impossible to compare the Games exclusively released on Steam and the ones released before steam. For instance I bet most owners of RTW and M2TW still have the disc version, also their hours played would be much greater than what steam says. For instance I have both a disc install and a steam install for RTW, on steam it says I have played RTW for 83 hours when it is more like 1000 including disc time. Also steam users and disc users are probably in two different population groups, (most significant factor would be internet access.)

[alQamar]

The EE gives the game a boost in terms of player activity, I will reflect this in my thread when releasing the September update

[the_eye]

One thing must be noted and that it is impossible to compare the Games exclusively released on Steam and the ones released before steam. For instance I bet most owners of RTW and M2TW still have the disc version, also their hours played would be much greater than what steam says. For instance I have both a disc install and a steam install for RTW, on steam it says I have played RTW for 83 hours when it is more like 1000 including disc time. Also steam users and disc users are probably in two different population groups, (most significant factor would be internet access.)

Indeed. I did note that just before the 'Numbers of Owners and Players' graph.

The EE gives the game a boost in terms of player activity, I will reflect this in my thread when releasing the September update

Whilst it's too soon to draw any definitive conclusions just yet, for comparison:

[the_eye]

Update for the month of September. The statistical error in my sample is very small relative to the total number of units sold for the major titles, but relatively large compared to the number they sell in a month, so I'm now averaging results over seven days to improve accuracy.

01/10/2014	.	.	01/09/2014	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Game	Players	Owners	Game	Players	Owners	Position Last Month	Players Delta	Owners Delta	Players Growth	Owners Growth
Dota 2 (appid:570)	32,285,355	32,481,266	Dota 2 (appid:570)	30,706,465	30,935,347	1	1,578,890	1,545,919	5.1%	5.0%
Team Fortress 2 (appid:440)	20,583,095	20,644,638	Team Fortress 2 (appid:440)	20,221,018	20,278,666	2	362,077	365,972	1.8%	1.8%
Counter-Strike: Source (appid:240)	8,225,099	11,174,045	Counter-Strike: Source (appid:240)	8,311,862	11,264,918	3	-86,763	-90,873	-1.0%	-0.8%
Left 4 Dead 2 (appid:550)	8,031,755	9,674,869	Left 4 Dead 2 (appid:550)	7,957,076	9,565,388	4	74,679	109,481	0.9%	1.1%
Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (appid:730)	6,719,311	7,041,071	Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (appid:730)	6,410,287	6,718,266	5	309,024	322,805	4.8%	4.8%
Counter-Strike (appid:10)	6,158,068	9,107,830	Counter-Strike (appid:10)	6,209,556	9,166,258	6	-51,488	-58,428	-0.8%	-0.6%
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (appid:72850)	6,090,261	6,471,075	The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (appid:72850)	5,861,439	6,205,910	7	228,822	265,165	3.9%	4.3%
Unturned (appid:304930)	5,580,720	7,195,707	Sid Meier's Civilization V (appid:8930)	5,338,112	5,761,615	10	643,906	976,296	13.0%	15.7%
Sid Meier's Civilization V (appid:8930)	5,360,300	5,767,567	Garry's Mod (appid:4000)	5,175,977	5,760,038	8	22,188	5,952	0.4%	0.1%
Garry's Mod (appid:4000)	5,270,202	5,838,992	Unturned (appid:304930)	4,936,814	6,219,411	9	94,225	78,954	1.8%	1.4%
Portal (appid:400)	4,600,928	6,740,590	Portal (appid:400)	4,633,993	6,717,740	11	-33,065	22,850	-0.7%	0.3%
Portal 2 (appid:620)	4,142,465	4,862,001	Portal 2 (appid:620)	4,126,729	4,787,161	12	15,736	74,840	0.4%	1.6%
Terraria (appid:105600)	3,936,828	4,308,033	Terraria (appid:105600)	3,854,161	4,219,655	13	82,667	88,378	2.1%	2.1%
Half-Life 2 (appid:220)	3,780,636	7,409,242	Half-Life 2 (appid:220)	3,823,875	7,441,765	14	-43,239	-32,523	-1.1%	-0.4%
Alien Swarm (appid:630)	3,526,254	3,542,009	Borderlands 2 (appid:49520)	3,554,230	3,974,613	16	-17,399	-19,251	-0.5%	-0.5%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (appid:10180)	3,345,125	3,829,925	Alien Swarm (appid:630)	3,543,653	3,561,260	17	-9,655	3,553	-0.3%	0.1%
Borderlands 2 (appid:49520)	3,305,950	3,679,334	Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (appid:10180)	3,354,780	3,826,372	15	-248,280	-295,279	-7.0%	-7.4%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 - Multiplayer (appid:10190)	3,226,590	3,834,009	Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 - Multiplayer (appid:10190)	3,218,989	3,830,412	18	7,601	3,597	0.2%	0.1%
Counter-Strike: Condition Zero (appid:80)	2,602,870	6,737,011	Counter-Strike: Condition Zero (appid:80)	2,626,354	6,753,182	19	-23,484	-16,171	-0.9%	-0.2%
Call of Duty: Black Ops (appid:42700)	2,557,549	2,744,474	Call of Duty: Black Ops (appid:42700)	2,536,549	2,728,543	20	21,000	15,931	0.8%	0.6%
Half-Life 2: Deathmatch (appid:320)	2,433,451	9,819,508	Half-Life 2: Deathmatch (appid:320)	2,455,251	9,917,251	21	-21,800	-97,743	-0.9%	-1.0%
DayZ (appid:221100)	2,303,712	2,334,056	DayZ (appid:221100)	2,243,582	2,276,298	22	60,130	57,758	2.7%	2.5%
Empire: Total War (appid:10500)	2,234,272	2,490,443	Left 4 Dead (appid:500)	2,219,144	2,682,983	24	22,618	42,057	1.0%	1.7%
Call of Duty: Black Ops - Multiplayer (appid:42710)	2,220,889	2,745,564	Empire: Total War (appid:10500)	2,211,654	2,448,386	26	10,910	16,627	0.5%	0.6%
Fallout: New Vegas (appid:22380)	2,212,020	2,599,019	Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (appid:42680)	2,211,195	2,502,191	27	5,982	-4,637	0.3%	-0.2%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (appid:42680)	2,207,624	2,495,072	Call of Duty: Black Ops - Multiplayer (appid:42710)	2,209,979	2,728,937	25	-3,571	-7,119	-0.2%	-0.3%
Left 4 Dead (appid:500)	2,167,904	2,702,693	Fallout: New Vegas (appid:22380)	2,206,038	2,603,656	23	-51,240	19,710	-2.3%	0.7%
PAYDAY 2 (appid:218620)	2,143,007	2,320,168	Grand Theft Auto IV (appid:12210)	2,146,025	2,671,519	30	37,220	33,129	1.8%	1.4%
Grand Theft Auto IV (appid:12210)	2,137,288	2,656,439	Magicka (appid:42910)	2,140,572	2,596,331	28	-8,737	-15,080	-0.4%	-0.6%
Magicka (appid:42910)	2,112,041	2,556,227	PAYDAY 2 (appid:218620)	2,105,787	2,287,039	29	-28,531	-40,104	-1.3%	-1.5%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - Multiplayer (appid:42690)	2,081,191	2,499,157	Day of Defeat: Source (appid:300)	2,101,451	4,892,897	32	-157	-6,712	0.0%	-0.3%
Day of Defeat: Source (appid:300)	2,061,935	4,871,221	Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - Multiplayer (appid:42690)	2,081,348	2,505,869	31	-39,516	-21,676	-1.9%	-0.4%
Arma 2: Operation Arrowhead (appid:33930)	2,029,374	2,767,582	Killing Floor (appid:1250)	2,029,975	2,259,513	35	23,870	-5,798	1.2%	-0.2%
Killing Floor (appid:1250)	2,023,383	2,250,338	Metro 2033 (appid:43110)	2,029,252	3,125,735	33	-6,592	-9,175	-0.3%	-0.4%
Metro 2033 (appid:43110)	2,004,476	3,066,663	Arma 2: Operation Arrowhead (appid:33930)	2,005,504	2,773,380	34	-24,776	-59,072	-1.2%	-1.9%
Saints Row: The Third (appid:55230)	1,983,158	2,478,111	Saints Row: The Third (appid:55230)	1,993,350	2,502,256	36	-10,192	-24,145	-0.5%	-1.0%
Half-Life 2: Lost Coast (appid:340)	1,937,525	11,515,256	Half-Life 2: Lost Coast (appid:340)	1,957,021	11,616,583	37	-19,496	-101,327	-1.0%	-0.9%
Torchlight II (appid:200710)	1,930,367	2,138,961	Torchlight II (appid:200710)	1,943,980	2,148,916	38	-13,613	-9,955	-0.7%	-0.5%
BioShock Infinite (appid:8870)	1,904,692	2,485,619	BioShock Infinite (appid:8870)	1,898,881	2,526,432	39	5,811	-40,813	0.3%	-1.6%
Robocraft (appid:301520)	1,833,034	2,610,651	Dead Island (appid:91310)	1,818,601	2,162,252	56	363,207	552,493	24.7%	26.8%
Sniper Elite V2 (appid:63380)	1,823,970	2,868,417	Sniper Elite V2 (appid:63380)	1,809,043	2,886,046	41	14,927	-17,629	0.8%	-0.6%
Dead Island (appid:91310)	1,803,857	2,133,243	Just Cause 2 (appid:8190)	1,774,159	2,402,170	40	-14,744	-29,009	-0.8%	-1.3%
Just Cause 2 (appid:8190)	1,801,601	2,449,596	Total War: SHOGUN 2 (appid:34330)	1,711,847	1,875,756	42	27,442	47,426	1.5%	2.0%
Total War: SHOGUN 2 (appid:34330)	1,730,527	1,914,612	Rust (appid:252490)	1,694,241	1,725,938	43	18,680	38,856	1.1%	2.1%
Rust (appid:252490)	1,705,085	1,736,323	Half-Life 2: Episode One (appid:380)	1,655,316	4,375,451	44	10,844	10,385	0.6%	0.6%
Half-Life 2: Episode One (appid:380)	1,633,777	4,434,738	Tomb Raider (appid:203160)	1,607,523	1,973,510	45	-21,539	59,287	-1.3%	1.4%
Warframe (appid:230410)	1,622,028	2,357,553	Chivalry: Medieval Warfare (appid:219640)	1,604,863	1,753,399	63	297,585	580,405	22.5%	32.7%
Tomb Raider (appid:203160)	1,615,648	1,966,430	Borderlands (appid:8980)	1,561,800	1,775,932	46	8,125	-7,080	0.5%	-0.4%
Chivalry: Medieval Warfare (appid:219640)	1,602,694	1,748,927	Deus Ex: Human Revolution (appid:28050)	1,535,160	1,899,340	47	-2,169	-4,472	-0.1%	-0.3%
The Binding of Isaac (appid:113200)	1,570,911	1,848,595	The Binding of Isaac (appid:113200)	1,527,244	1,767,819	50	43,667	80,776	2.9%	4.6%
Borderlands (appid:8980)	1,555,894	1,758,147	DC Universe Online (appid:24200)	1,522,514	1,532,467	48	-5,906	-17,785	-0.4%	-1.0%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Multiplayer (appid:202990)	1,529,363	1,822,258	XCOM: Enemy Unknown (appid:200510)	1,500,703	1,801,028	54	34,145	35,355	2.3%	2.0%
DC Universe Online (appid:24200)	1,527,418	1,537,105	Half-Life 2: Episode Two (appid:420)	1,500,440	3,825,879	51	4,904	4,638	0.3%	0.3%
Deus Ex: Human Revolution (appid:28050)	1,514,619	1,869,835	Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Multiplayer (appid:202990)	1,495,218	1,786,903	49	-20,541	-29,505	-1.3%	-1.6%
XCOM: Enemy Unknown (appid:200510)	1,499,447	1,785,729	Warhammer\u00ae 40000\u2122: Dawn of War\u00ae II (appid:15620)	1,486,973	1,866,066	52	-1,256	-15,299	-0.1%	-0.8%
Half-Life 2: Episode Two (appid:420)	1,483,925	3,905,706	Robocraft (appid:301520)	1,469,827	2,058,158	53	-16,515	79,827	-1.1%	2.1%
Warhammer\u00ae 40000\u2122: Dawn of War\u00ae II (appid:15620)	1,453,387	1,828,210	FTL: Faster Than Light (appid:212680)	1,414,216	1,701,303	55	-33,586	-37,856	-2.3%	-2.0%
FTL: Faster Than Light (appid:212680)	1,405,537	1,689,018	The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition (appid:20920)	1,382,485	2,034,935	57	-8,679	-12,285	-0.6%	-0.7%
The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition (appid:20920)	1,390,716	2,022,332	Dishonored (appid:205100)	1,368,591	1,684,156	58	8,231	-12,603	0.6%	-0.6%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II (appid:202970)	1,383,869	1,807,592	Far Cry\u00ae 3 (appid:220240)	1,364,649	1,628,776	61	22,669	35,207	1.7%	2.0%
Starbound (appid:211820)	1,358,232	1,394,217	Call of Duty: Black Ops II (appid:202970)	1,361,200	1,772,385	62	3,437	1,943	0.3%	0.1%
Heroes & Generals (appid:227940)	1,346,912	2,091,306	Starbound (appid:211820)	1,354,795	1,392,274	92	296,909	473,633	28.3%	29.3%
Far Cry\u00ae 3 (appid:220240)	1,346,523	1,597,286	Warframe (appid:230410)	1,324,443	1,777,148	60	-18,126	-31,490	-1.3%	-1.9%
Total War: ROME II (appid:214950)	1,319,952	1,386,825	Don't Starve (appid:219740)	1,300,071	1,439,245	71	115,533	126,993	9.6%	10.1%
Don't Starve (appid:219740)	1,303,808	1,437,165	Half-Life (appid:70)	1,245,609	4,312,022	64	3,737	-2,080	0.3%	-0.1%
Age of Empires II: HD Edition (appid:221380)	1,286,107	1,514,230	Age of Empires II: HD Edition (appid:221380)	1,243,146	1,477,020	66	42,961	37,210	3.5%	2.5%
Loadout (appid:208090)	1,266,501	1,788,024	Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Zombies (appid:212910)	1,236,839	1,774,947	80	128,237	286,894	11.3%	19.1%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Zombies (appid:212910)	1,261,327	1,809,498	Bastion (appid:107100)	1,212,565	1,614,947	67	24,488	34,551	2.0%	1.9%
Half-Life (appid:70)	1,257,514	4,359,151	Dungeon Defenders (appid:65800)	1,208,492	1,471,239	65	11,905	47,129	1.0%	1.1%
Dishonored (appid:205100)	1,241,603	1,520,455	BioShock (appid:7670)	1,206,981	2,028,562	59	-126,988	-163,701	-9.3%	-9.7%
BioShock (appid:7670)	1,209,781	1,993,778	Total War: ROME II (appid:214950)	1,204,419	1,259,832	70	2,800	-34,784	0.2%	-1.7%
Bastion (appid:107100)	1,209,276	1,617,905	Dark Souls: Prepare to Die Edition (appid:211420)	1,201,561	1,451,169	68	-3,289	2,958	-0.3%	0.2%
Mafia II (appid:50130)	1,202,234	1,604,133	PAYDAY: The Heist (appid:24240)	1,191,214	1,369,247	74	12,695	387	1.1%	0.0%
Dark Souls: Prepare to Die Edition (appid:211420)	1,194,687	1,441,561	Mafia II (appid:50130)	1,189,539	1,603,746	72	-6,874	-9,608	-0.6%	-0.7%
Serious Sam HD: The Second Encounter (appid:41010)	1,187,801	1,201,145	Napoleon: Total War (appid:34030)	1,175,349	1,435,994	76	13,635	14,004	1.2%	1.2%
PAYDAY: The Heist (appid:24240)	1,186,751	1,362,200	Serious Sam HD: The Second Encounter (appid:41010)	1,174,166	1,187,141	73	-4,463	-7,047	-0.4%	-0.5%
Dungeon Defenders (appid:65800)	1,183,483	1,445,490	Football Manager 2013 (appid:207890)	1,150,385	1,170,849	69	-25,009	-25,749	-2.1%	-1.8%
Napoleon: Total War (appid:34030)	1,182,705	1,465,408	Super Meat Boy (appid:40800)	1,149,169	1,409,683	75	7,356	29,414	0.6%	2.0%
War Thunder (appid:236390)	1,153,490	1,649,221	Zombie Panic Source (appid:17500)	1,139,742	1,147,560	96	160,018	330,624	16.1%	25.1%
Football Manager 2013 (appid:207890)	1,149,405	1,170,840	Loadout (appid:208090)	1,138,264	1,501,130	77	-980	-9	-0.1%	0.0%
Zombie Panic Source (appid:17500)	1,136,723	1,144,698	The Walking Dead (appid:207610)	1,131,366	1,346,780	79	-3,019	-2,862	-0.3%	-0.2%
The Walking Dead (appid:207610)	1,131,004	1,340,337	Hitman: Absolution (appid:203140)	1,129,691	1,485,987	81	-362	-6,443	0.0%	-0.5%
Hitman: Absolution (appid:203140)	1,130,693	1,479,218	Mirror's Edge (appid:17410)	1,117,241	1,943,455	82	1,002	-6,769	0.1%	-0.5%
PlanetSide 2 (appid:218230)	1,126,686	1,544,730	Rising Storm\/Red Orchestra 2 Multiplayer (appid:35450)	1,103,183	2,042,917	99	159,229	297,741	16.5%	23.9%
Super Meat Boy (appid:40800)	1,124,469	1,381,262	Arma 2 (appid:33910)	1,080,715	1,848,328	78	-24,700	-28,421	-2.1%	-2.0%
Rising Storm\/Red Orchestra 2 Multiplayer (appid:35450)	1,112,253	2,047,385	Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (appid:24960)	1,079,237	1,138,395	84	9,070	4,468	0.8%	0.2%
Mirror's Edge (appid:17410)	1,111,320	1,938,148	Day of Defeat (appid:30)	1,078,974	6,135,912	83	-5,921	-5,307	-0.5%	-0.3%
Arma 2 (appid:33910)	1,077,980	1,847,895	Trine 2 (appid:35720)	1,073,390	1,709,318	85	-2,735	-433	-0.3%	0.0%
Trine 2 (appid:35720)	1,077,008	1,696,059	Castle Crashers (appid:204360)	1,066,886	1,302,896	88	3,618	-13,259	0.3%	-0.8%
Castle Crashers (appid:204360)	1,057,790	1,296,883	Counter-Strike: Condition Zero Deleted Scenes (appid:100)	1,052,860	6,749,306	89	-9,096	-6,013	-0.9%	-0.5%
Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (appid:24960)	1,057,790	1,118,750	Mount & Blade: Warband (appid:48700)	1,050,890	1,187,010	86	-21,447	-19,645	-2.0%	-1.7%
Mount & Blade: Warband (appid:48700)	1,056,973	1,197,760	Heroes & Generals (appid:227940)	1,050,003	1,617,673	91	6,083	10,750	0.6%	0.9%
Day of Defeat (appid:30)	1,047,364	6,095,513	Football Manager 2012 (appid:71270)	1,014,593	1,034,893	87	-31,610	-40,399	-2.9%	-0.7%
Counter-Strike: Condition Zero Deleted Scenes (appid:100)	1,037,133	6,733,627	Arma 3 (appid:107410)	1,007,695	1,030,064	90	-15,727	-15,679	-1.5%	-0.2%
Arma 3 (appid:107410)	1,026,279	1,047,559	Orcs Must Die! 2 (appid:201790)	1,006,283	1,468,250	94	18,584	17,495	1.8%	1.7%
Orcs Must Die! 2 (appid:201790)	1,022,661	1,483,458	War Thunder (appid:236390)	993,472	1,318,597	95	16,378	15,208	1.6%	1.0%
Football Manager 2012 (appid:71270)	1,007,490	1,027,135	Amnesia: The Dark Descent (appid:57300)	975,636	1,451,957	93	-7,103	-7,758	-0.7%	-0.7%
Path of Exile (appid:238960)	981,270	1,426,700	Sleeping Dogs\u2122 (appid:202170)	972,023	1,206,718	New Entry	.	.	.	.
Batman: Arkham Asylum GOTY Edition (appid:35140)	969,871	1,701,972	PlanetSide 2 (appid:218230)	967,457	1,246,989	New Entry	.	.	.	.
Amnesia: The Dark Descent (appid:57300)	963,919	1,436,893	Audiosurf (appid:12900)	960,756	1,106,730	97	-11,717	-15,064	-1.2%	-1.0%

As you can see, most of the changes are less than 1%, but there are a few exceptions. The free to play games grow much faster. Two games appear to have significantly fewer owners than they had last month - Borderlands 2 and Dishonoured. This is because both games were avaiable to play free for a weekend towards the end of August and people who took advantage of this are indistinguishable from actual owners until they disapper from the Steam stats a little later. The Rome II stats appear to have grown significantly this month due to the recent free weekend - I expect them to return to their actual levels by the end of the month. The small drops in some games are probably just due to statistical error.

Updates on a few of the graphs:



The free weekend has boosted the percentage of Rome II 'owners' who have played recently, but not all of these actually own the game.



The number of people playing Rome II recently has likewise been boosted.



The percentages of people playing Rome II more than x hours has dropped because of the large influx of people from the free weekend who couldn't play many hours.

[alQamar]

have your overdue rep the_eye!

Your analysis is not only interesting to me but also enjoyable to read! I have to say that the free weekend really mixed up the results, as I also stated in my thread. To be fair it seems to be quite normal that a lot of people tend not to buy the game after they tested it for free. As said I am not sure if it does make sense to carry on the stats and to collect the figures. I think I will end my records at the end of October and may pick the things up on the Attila release. I am looking forward to your direct comparisons of Rome 2 and Attila, otherwise to Shogun 2 it seems the setting of Attila has got a lot of fans.

cheers!

[the_eye]

A lot has happened since my last update:

• 30th Sep - Launch of Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor
• 10th Oct - Space Engineers free weekend
• 16th Oct - Launch of Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel
• 16th Oct - Payday 2 free weekend
• 16th Oct - Killing Floor free weekend
• 16th Oct - XCOM: Enemy Unknown free weekend
• 16th Oct - Don't Starve free weekend
• 16th Oct - Trine 2 free weekend
• 16th Oct - Payday: The Heist is available free for 24 hours
• 17th Oct - Davey Wreden reports The Stanley Parable has sold 1 million copies
• 20th Oct - Keen Software House reports Space Engineers has sold over 1 million copies
• 23rd Oct - Arma 3 free weekend
• 24th Oct - Launch of Sid Meier's Civilization: Beyond Earth
• 31st Oct - The Astronauts report The Vanishing of Ethan Carter sold 60 thousand copies in the first month

The free weekends, as mentioned before, will artificially inflate the stats for the games affected. Rome II has a free weekend in September and, as expected, the sampled owners and players dropped back down again in October as those that played for free but do not own the game finally dropped out of the stats.

The sales reports are useful to calibrate the stats. Approximately 94% of Steam accounts are public, which means I can sample them. I then multiply the results by a flat scaling factor of about 1.064 to account for the private profiles, giving the figures I have been presenting. This assumes that the average private profile owns the same number of games as the average public profile, which is not necessarily true. Comparing known published sales figures to my results allows me to calculate a more accurate picture of the private Steam accounts and calculate an additional scaling factor to represent that. So far I have been using a factor of 1.09 for this, calculated from the original Ars Technica results, but the figures I have presented in this thread have not typically included this scaling factor unless explicitly stated.

The Stanley Parable was reported to have sold 1 million copies as of 17th October. My stats for 16th October have it at 870,052, which would make the scaling factor 1.149.

Space Engineers was reported to have sold 1 million copies as of 20th October. Unfortunately this was shortly after it had a free weekend, so I do not have accurate figures to compare it with. Prior to the free weekend (and the 40% off sale that accompanied it) my stats were at 735,282.

The Vanishing of Ethan Carter was reported to have sold 60,000 units in the first month, reported on of 31st October. My stats for this period have it at 54,401, which would make the scaling factor 1.103.

It seems clear that the additional scaling factor is necessary and that 1.09 may be slightly too low, but I would prefer to have more data before revising it. From now on I shall include the adjusted figures in the results I present in this thread.

Finally, we had the launches of three major titles. This is the first time I have had the opportunity to track the sales of a major title from launch and it will be interesting to compare these results against future Total War releases. These numbers include the 1.09 scaling factor. The small peaks and dips are a result of sampling error.



And now the top 100 Steam games as of October. Games with stats that are inflated by a free weekend are highlighted in orange. Games which had free weekends affecting their stats last month and not this month are highlighted in purple. When performing some additional analysis of Total War games I discovered that my stats for Shogun 2 are too high because Steam accounts which own Fall of the Samurai are always shown as owning Shogun 2, even if they can't play the original Shogun 2 campaign. There does not appear to be a way for me to determine how many Steam accounts actually own the original Shogun 2 campaign, so I have highlighted Shogun 2 in blue. Other Total War games are highlighted in green.

Game	Players	Owners	Players (9% adjustment)	Owners (9% adjustment)	Position Last Month	Players Growth	Owners Growth
Dota 2	33,835,833	34,020,080	36,881,058	37,081,887	1	4.8%	4.7%
Team Fortress 2	21,111,446	21,182,020	23,011,476	23,088,402	2	2.6%	2.6%
Counter-Strike: Source	8,378,481	11,421,170	9,132,544	12,449,075	3	1.9%	2.2%
Left 4 Dead 2	8,169,998	9,823,593	8,905,298	10,707,716	4	1.7%	1.5%
Counter-Strike: Global Offensive	7,079,464	7,408,026	7,716,616	8,074,748	5	5.4%	5.2%
Counter-Strike	6,281,547	9,309,858	6,846,886	10,147,745	6	2.0%	2.2%
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim	6,158,870	6,532,382	6,713,168	7,120,296	7	1.1%	0.9%
Unturned	6,073,562	8,006,322	6,620,183	8,726,891	8	8.8%	11.3%
Sid Meier's Civilization V	5,526,801	5,949,996	6,024,213	6,485,496	9	3.1%	3.2%
Garry's Mod	5,425,335	5,997,223	5,913,615	6,536,973	10	2.9%	2.7%
Portal	4,684,646	6,844,431	5,106,264	7,460,430	11	1.8%	1.5%
Portal 2	4,245,721	4,959,789	4,627,836	5,406,170	12	2.5%	2.0%
Terraria	4,020,510	4,391,246	4,382,356	4,786,458	13	2.1%	1.9%
Half-Life 2	3,901,001	7,586,615	4,252,091	8,269,410	14	3.2%	2.4%
Alien Swarm	3,575,250	3,592,262	3,897,023	3,915,566	15	1.4%	1.4%
Borderlands 2	3,397,053	3,761,348	3,702,788	4,099,869	17	2.8%	2.2%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2	3,376,305	3,862,244	3,680,172	4,209,846	16	0.9%	0.8%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 - Multiplayer	3,255,585	3,866,550	3,548,588	4,214,540	18	0.9%	0.8%
PAYDAY 2	2,859,011	3,137,891	3,116,322	3,420,301	28	33.4%	35.2%
Counter-Strike: Condition Zero	2,658,856	6,888,847	2,898,153	7,508,843	19	2.2%	2.3%
Call of Duty: Black Ops	2,555,646	2,748,613	2,785,654	2,995,988	20	-0.1%	0.2%
Half-Life 2: Deathmatch	2,494,575	10,058,804	2,719,087	10,964,096	21	2.5%	2.4%
DayZ	2,371,044	2,405,281	2,584,438	2,621,756	22	2.9%	3.1%
Killing Floor	2,270,824	2,528,065	2,475,198	2,755,591	34	12.2%	12.3%
Empire: Total War	2,260,503	2,509,522	2,463,948	2,735,379	23	1.2%	0.8%
Fallout: New Vegas	2,253,990	2,653,624	2,456,849	2,892,450	25	1.9%	2.1%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3	2,244,665	2,538,706	2,446,685	2,767,190	26	1.7%	1.7%
Left 4 Dead	2,236,159	2,792,459	2,437,413	3,043,780	27	3.1%	3.3%
Call of Duty: Black Ops - Multiplayer	2,233,775	2,748,506	2,434,815	2,995,872	24	0.6%	0.1%
Magicka	2,197,367	2,659,781	2,395,130	2,899,161	30	4.0%	4.1%
Grand Theft Auto IV	2,169,358	2,683,306	2,364,600	2,924,804	29	1.5%	1.0%
Day of Defeat: Source	2,117,967	4,991,001	2,308,584	5,440,191	32	2.7%	2.5%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - Multiplayer	2,116,792	2,540,983	2,307,303	2,769,671	31	1.7%	1.7%
Robocraft	2,112,379	3,192,094	2,302,493	3,479,382	40	15.2%	22.3%
Arma 2: Operation Arrowhead	2,088,071	2,824,454	2,275,997	3,078,655	33	2.9%	2.1%
PAYDAY: The Heist	2,072,626	3,167,679	2,259,162	3,452,770	76	74.6%	132.5%
Saints Row: The Third	2,035,363	2,578,175	2,218,546	2,810,211	36	2.6%	4.0%
Metro 2033	2,023,975	3,108,387	2,206,133	3,388,142	35	1.0%	1.4%
Torchlight II	1,994,720	2,203,595	2,174,245	2,401,919	38	3.3%	3.0%
Half-Life 2: Lost Coast	1,978,135	11,770,695	2,156,167	12,830,058	37	2.1%	2.2%
BioShock Infinite	1,946,817	2,570,274	2,122,031	2,801,599	39	2.2%	3.4%
Warframe	1,907,455	2,929,123	2,079,126	3,192,744	47	17.6%	24.2%
Dead Island	1,877,488	2,234,985	2,046,462	2,436,134	42	4.1%	4.8%
Sniper Elite V2	1,865,886	2,904,139	2,033,816	3,165,512	41	2.3%	1.2%
Just Cause 2	1,844,639	2,494,824	2,010,657	2,719,358	43	2.4%	1.8%
Tomb Raider	1,769,439	2,201,780	1,928,689	2,399,940	48	9.5%	12.0%
Rust	1,761,075	1,795,027	1,919,572	1,956,579	45	3.3%	3.4%
Total War: SHOGUN 2	1,758,513	1,930,944	1,916,779	2,104,729	44	1.6%	0.9%
XCOM: Enemy Unknown	1,700,502	2,151,634	1,853,547	2,345,281	55	13.4%	20.5%
Half-Life 2: Episode One	1,696,800	4,525,953	1,849,512	4,933,289	46	3.9%	2.1%
Chivalry: Medieval Warfare	1,679,006	1,832,788	1,830,117	1,997,739	49	4.8%	4.8%
The Binding of Isaac	1,665,731	1,951,728	1,815,647	2,127,384	50	6.0%	5.6%
Don't Starve	1,617,365	1,802,217	1,762,928	1,964,417	65	24.0%	25.4%
Borderlands	1,594,872	1,801,896	1,738,410	1,964,067	51	2.5%	2.5%
Heroes & Generals	1,578,928	2,503,721	1,721,032	2,729,056	62	17.2%	19.7%
DC Universe Online	1,568,500	1,578,821	1,709,665	1,720,915	53	2.7%	2.7%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Multiplayer	1,543,338	1,838,091	1,682,238	2,003,519	52	0.9%	0.9%
Deus Ex: Human Revolution	1,541,488	1,899,696	1,680,222	2,070,669	54	1.8%	1.6%
Half-Life 2: Episode Two	1,522,661	3,973,888	1,659,700	4,331,538	56	2.6%	1.7%
Warhammer\u00ae 40000\u2122: Dawn of War\u00ae II	1,463,760	1,839,799	1,595,498	2,005,381	57	0.7%	0.6%
FTL: Faster Than Light	1,451,055	1,746,661	1,581,650	1,903,860	58	3.2%	3.4%
The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition	1,423,437	2,071,736	1,551,546	2,258,192	59	2.4%	2.4%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II	1,397,386	1,823,286	1,523,151	1,987,382	60	1.0%	0.9%
Starbound	1,381,620	1,418,348	1,505,966	1,545,999	61	1.7%	1.7%
Loadout	1,370,516	2,039,278	1,493,862	2,222,813	67	8.2%	14.1%
Far Cry\u00ae 3	1,367,420	1,613,343	1,490,488	1,758,544	63	1.6%	1.0%
War Thunder	1,365,213	2,065,330	1,488,082	2,251,210	79	18.4%	25.2%
Arma 3	1,343,041	1,394,183	1,463,915	1,519,659	95	30.9%	33.1%
Age of Empires II: HD Edition	1,308,234	1,537,786	1,425,975	1,676,187	66	1.7%	1.6%
Half-Life	1,300,654	4,468,476	1,417,713	4,870,639	69	3.4%	2.5%
PlanetSide 2	1,283,535	1,851,294	1,399,053	2,017,910	84	13.9%	19.8%
Dishonored	1,279,478	1,554,514	1,394,631	1,694,420	70	3.1%	2.2%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Zombies	1,279,229	1,825,919	1,394,360	1,990,252	68	1.4%	0.9%
Total War: ROME II	1,256,594	1,315,423	1,369,687	1,433,811	64	-4.8%	-5.1%
Bastion	1,247,412	1,653,025	1,359,679	1,801,797	72	3.2%	2.2%
BioShock	1,244,636	2,066,682	1,356,653	2,252,683	71	2.9%	3.7%
Serious Sam HD: The Second Encounter	1,221,503	1,234,635	1,331,438	1,345,752	75	2.8%	2.8%
Dungeon Defenders	1,212,107	1,473,476	1,321,197	1,606,089	77	2.4%	1.9%
Napoleon: Total War	1,210,968	1,490,488	1,319,955	1,624,632	78	2.4%	1.7%
Dark Souls: Prepare to Die Edition	1,209,900	1,455,397	1,318,791	1,586,383	74	1.3%	1.0%
Mafia II	1,196,839	1,606,759	1,304,555	1,751,367	73	-0.4%	0.2%
Super Meat Boy	1,175,450	1,439,844	1,281,241	1,569,430	85	4.5%	4.2%
The Walking Dead	1,162,175	1,378,666	1,266,771	1,502,746	82	2.8%	2.9%
Hitman: Absolution	1,157,086	1,510,383	1,261,224	1,646,317	83	2.3%	2.1%
Trine 2	1,152,637	1,806,630	1,256,374	1,969,227	89	7.0%	6.5%
Mirror's Edge	1,139,291	1,975,573	1,241,827	2,153,375	87	2.5%	1.9%
Zombie Panic Source	1,138,294	1,146,836	1,240,740	1,250,051	81	0.1%	0.2%
Rising Storm\/Red Orchestra 2 Multiplayer	1,134,273	2,071,593	1,236,358	2,258,036	86	2.0%	1.2%
Football Manager 2013	1,129,646	1,149,896	1,231,314	1,253,387	80	-1.7%	-1.8%
Arma 2	1,116,086	1,903,682	1,216,534	2,075,013	88	3.5%	3.0%
Path of Exile	1,097,544	1,647,758	1,196,323	1,796,056	98	11.8%	15.5%
Mount & Blade: Warband	1,091,352	1,229,688	1,189,574	1,340,360	92	3.3%	2.7%
Castle Crashers	1,082,597	1,327,097	1,180,031	1,446,536	90	2.3%	2.3%
Day of Defeat	1,076,404	6,244,677	1,173,280	6,806,698	93	2.8%	2.4%
Battlefield: Bad Company 2	1,075,870	1,135,376	1,172,698	1,237,560	91	1.7%	1.5%
Counter-Strike: Condition Zero Deleted Scenes	1,056,367	6,885,323	1,151,440	7,505,002	94	1.9%	2.3%
Orcs Must Die! 2	1,047,007	1,512,091	1,141,238	1,648,179	96	2.4%	1.9%
No More Room in Hell	1,041,384	1,587,647	1,135,109	1,730,535	New Entry	.	.
Space Engineers	1,032,736	1,124,130	1,125,682	1,225,302	New Entry	.	.
Batman: Arkham Asylum GOTY Edition	1,003,410	1,737,017	1,093,717	1,893,349	99	3.5%	2.1%

Here's an update to the Owners and Players graph for titles in a similar area to Total War. This time I've broken the numbers down by month. The free weekend for Rome II meant that I can't know the numbers for September so I've split the colouring horizonally to indicate that the values are across the two months but the actual split is unknown.



And finally, I thought it would be interesting to see how many Steam accounts own what combination of recent Total War titles (remember that some propotion of any area that includes Shogun 2 & Fall of the Samurai is probably just the latter, but it's not possible for me to tell how much):

[alQamar]

thanks for the update. I still do not understand the relation between people that have the game in their account and people that play the game.

If we take Rome 2 we can assume that about 1.2-1.3 million users have bought it. But when I look on your bar the amount of how many play the game (active players) they are close to equal, isn't it? So does it mean that everyone that owns Rome 2 has played it at least once? Or does it mean they are playing it on a regular basis (daily etc.), what exactly means "active players"?


ps: for your calibration you can also take into consideration the amount of registered user. Which was reported here.
http://www.gamespot.com/articles/ste.../1100-6422489/

with a pinch of salt though because this number seems to grow very dynamically. I am not even sure if fake and second accounts etc are included into that figure or if those are really all active accounts.

[the_eye]

Not too much of interest happened in November (plus one item I missed in October):

• 20th Oct - Civilization V free to play for 3 days
• 3rd Nov - Launch of Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
• 4th Nov - Launch of The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth
• 6th Nov - Launch of Football Manager 2015
• 20th Nov - Chivalry: Medieval Warfare free weekend

Here's an update to the major titles launch graph, with the three new titles included. Note that because people who pre-ordered Football Manager 2015 were able to play the beta we have pre-order numbers available (although I'm not sure if people who pre-ordered hard copies had the same beta opportunities, so this might not be the full story).



Top 100 Steam games as of November:

Game	Players	Owners	Players (9% adjustment)	Owners (9% adjustment)	Position Last Month	Players Growth	Owners Growth
Dota 2	35,227,570	35,412,584	38,398,051	38,599,717	1	4.1%	4.1%
Team Fortress 2	21,377,173	21,443,829	23,301,119	23,373,774	2	1.3%	1.2%
Counter-Strike: Source	8,410,516	11,564,668	9,167,462	12,605,488	3	0.4%	1.3%
Left 4 Dead 2	8,257,716	9,923,570	9,000,910	10,816,691	4	1.1%	1.0%
Counter-Strike: Global Offensive	7,589,299	7,974,927	8,272,336	8,692,670	5	7.2%	7.7%
Unturned	6,392,705	8,609,753	6,968,048	9,384,631	8	5.3%	7.5%
Counter-Strike	6,339,746	9,503,055	6,910,323	10,358,330	6	0.9%	2.1%
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim	6,220,698	6,613,296	6,780,561	7,208,493	7	1.0%	1.2%
Garry's Mod	5,592,396	6,212,999	6,095,712	6,772,169	10	3.1%	3.6%
Sid Meier's Civilization V	5,482,952	5,894,837	5,976,418	6,425,372	9	-0.8%	-0.9%
Portal	4,657,886	6,856,091	5,077,096	7,473,139	11	-0.6%	0.2%
Portal 2	4,232,872	4,968,025	4,613,830	5,415,147	12	-0.3%	0.2%
Terraria	4,071,603	4,463,755	4,438,047	4,865,493	13	1.3%	1.7%
Half-Life 2	3,894,207	7,639,017	4,244,686	8,326,529	14	-0.2%	0.7%
Alien Swarm	3,561,498	3,581,514	3,882,033	3,903,850	15	-0.4%	-0.3%
Borderlands 2	3,441,599	3,816,206	3,751,343	4,159,665	16	1.3%	1.5%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2	3,357,358	3,843,597	3,659,520	4,189,521	17	-0.6%	-0.5%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 - Multiplayer	3,243,781	3,850,405	3,535,721	4,196,941	18	-0.4%	-0.4%
Counter-Strike: Condition Zero	2,662,563	7,053,139	2,902,194	7,687,922	20	0.1%	2.4%
PAYDAY 2	2,648,584	2,893,446	2,886,957	3,153,856	19	-7.4%	-7.8%
Call of Duty: Black Ops	2,534,723	2,734,121	2,762,848	2,980,192	21	-0.8%	-0.5%
Half-Life 2: Deathmatch	2,451,454	10,091,931	2,672,085	11,000,205	22	-1.7%	0.3%
DayZ	2,393,146	2,428,196	2,608,529	2,646,734	23	0.9%	1.0%
Robocraft	2,320,170	3,549,301	2,528,985	3,868,738	34	9.8%	11.2%
Fallout: New Vegas	2,282,405	2,711,430	2,487,821	2,955,459	26	1.3%	2.2%
Empire: Total War	2,247,315	2,554,132	2,449,573	2,784,004	25	-0.6%	1.8%
Left 4 Dead	2,241,602	2,835,543	2,443,346	3,090,742	28	0.2%	1.5%
Metro 2033	2,226,853	3,934,402	2,427,270	4,288,498	38	10.0%	26.6%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3	2,219,478	2,508,223	2,419,231	2,733,963	27	-1.1%	-1.2%
Call of Duty: Black Ops - Multiplayer	2,214,737	2,736,228	2,414,063	2,982,489	29	-0.9%	-0.4%
Grand Theft Auto IV	2,198,327	2,731,650	2,396,176	2,977,499	31	1.3%	1.8%
Magicka	2,184,145	2,638,900	2,380,718	2,876,401	30	-0.6%	-0.8%
PAYDAY: The Heist	2,134,670	3,149,532	2,326,790	3,432,990	36	3.0%	-0.6%
Warframe	2,124,702	3,389,612	2,315,925	3,694,677	42	11.4%	15.7%
Killing Floor	2,105,820	2,342,172	2,295,344	2,552,967	24	-7.3%	-7.4%
Day of Defeat: Source	2,100,957	5,015,636	2,290,043	5,467,043	32	-0.8%	0.5%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - Multiplayer	2,095,082	2,512,518	2,283,639	2,738,645	33	-1.0%	-1.1%
Arma 2: Operation Arrowhead	2,090,138	2,841,540	2,278,250	3,097,279	35	0.1%	0.6%
Saints Row: The Third	2,046,215	2,579,254	2,230,374	2,811,387	37	0.5%	0.0%
BioShock Infinite	1,997,510	2,643,600	2,177,286	2,881,524	41	2.6%	2.9%
Torchlight II	1,981,788	2,195,652	2,160,149	2,393,261	39	-0.6%	-0.4%
Half-Life 2: Lost Coast	1,974,657	11,803,087	2,152,376	12,865,365	40	-0.2%	0.3%
Just Cause 2	1,927,370	2,638,535	2,100,833	2,876,003	45	4.5%	5.8%
Dead Island	1,886,161	2,241,156	2,055,915	2,442,860	43	0.5%	0.3%
Chivalry: Medieval Warfare	1,869,264	2,051,685	2,037,498	2,236,337	51	11.3%	11.9%
Sniper Elite V2	1,840,171	2,840,932	2,005,786	3,096,616	44	-1.4%	-2.2%
Tomb Raider	1,794,059	2,225,151	1,955,524	2,425,415	46	1.4%	1.1%
Rust	1,786,198	1,819,627	1,946,956	1,983,393	47	1.4%	1.4%
Total War: SHOGUN 2	1,764,358	1,950,061	1,923,150	2,125,566	48	0.3%	1.0%
Heroes & Generals	1,762,251	2,829,262	1,920,854	3,083,896	55	11.6%	13.0%
The Binding of Isaac	1,726,796	2,019,553	1,882,208	2,201,313	52	3.7%	3.5%
XCOM: Enemy Unknown	1,692,841	2,127,943	1,845,197	2,319,458	49	-0.5%	-1.1%
Half-Life 2: Episode One	1,660,425	4,573,645	1,809,863	4,985,273	50	-2.1%	1.1%
Borderlands	1,604,345	1,813,509	1,748,736	1,976,725	54	0.6%	0.6%
Far Cry\u00ae 3	1,585,787	1,914,849	1,728,508	2,087,185	66	16.0%	18.7%
DC Universe Online	1,562,285	1,575,252	1,702,891	1,717,025	56	-0.4%	-0.2%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Multiplayer	1,558,598	1,862,416	1,698,872	2,030,033	57	1.0%	1.3%
War Thunder	1,526,344	2,410,489	1,663,715	2,627,433	67	11.8%	16.7%
Deus Ex: Human Revolution	1,526,101	1,883,001	1,663,450	2,052,471	58	-1.0%	-0.9%
Half-Life 2: Episode Two	1,508,759	4,020,305	1,644,547	4,382,132	59	-0.9%	1.2%
FTL: Faster Than Light	1,474,479	1,771,935	1,607,182	1,931,409	61	1.6%	1.4%
Don't Starve	1,470,386	1,634,978	1,602,721	1,782,126	53	-9.1%	-9.3%
Loadout	1,469,049	2,286,782	1,601,263	2,492,592	65	7.2%	12.1%
Warhammer\u00ae 40000\u2122: Dawn of War\u00ae II	1,459,162	1,835,592	1,590,487	2,000,795	60	-0.3%	-0.2%
The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition	1,458,554	2,136,696	1,589,824	2,328,999	62	2.5%	3.1%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II	1,414,266	1,846,978	1,541,550	2,013,206	63	1.2%	1.3%
PlanetSide 2	1,400,489	2,099,661	1,526,533	2,288,630	71	9.1%	13.4%
Starbound	1,376,988	1,413,739	1,500,917	1,540,976	64	-0.3%	-0.3%
Age of Empires II: HD Edition	1,343,073	1,590,568	1,463,950	1,733,719	69	2.7%	3.4%
Total War: ROME II	1,309,603	1,391,697	1,427,467	1,516,950	74	4.2%	5.8%
Dishonored	1,300,405	1,580,763	1,417,441	1,723,032	72	1.6%	1.7%
Half-Life	1,300,000	4,527,776	1,417,000	4,935,276	70	-0.1%	1.3%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Zombies	1,289,019	1,848,802	1,405,031	2,015,194	73	0.8%	1.3%
BioShock	1,263,208	2,083,412	1,376,897	2,270,919	76	1.5%	0.8%
Dark Souls: Prepare to Die Edition	1,246,878	1,509,488	1,359,097	1,645,342	80	3.1%	3.7%
Bastion	1,242,138	1,644,217	1,353,930	1,792,197	75	-0.4%	-0.5%
Mafia II	1,216,043	1,617,960	1,325,487	1,763,576	81	1.6%	0.7%
Napoleon: Total War	1,212,720	1,497,818	1,321,865	1,632,622	79	0.1%	0.5%
Serious Sam HD: The Second Encounter	1,203,563	1,217,907	1,311,884	1,327,519	77	-1.5%	-1.4%
Dungeon Defenders	1,201,739	1,464,997	1,309,896	1,596,847	78	-0.9%	-0.6%
No More Room in Hell	1,194,932	1,895,157	1,302,476	2,065,721	98	14.7%	19.4%
Rising Storm\/Red Orchestra 2 Multiplayer	1,190,394	2,138,641	1,297,529	2,331,119	88	4.9%	3.2%
Path of Exile	1,179,696	1,814,400	1,285,869	1,977,696	91	7.5%	10.1%
The Walking Dead	1,177,873	1,390,521	1,283,882	1,515,668	83	1.4%	0.9%
Super Meat Boy	1,174,996	1,449,843	1,280,746	1,580,329	82	0.0%	0.7%
Hitman: Absolution	1,165,920	1,523,508	1,270,853	1,660,624	84	0.8%	0.9%
Mount & Blade: Warband	1,144,282	1,298,703	1,247,267	1,415,586	92	4.8%	5.6%
Castle Crashers	1,137,961	1,401,421	1,240,377	1,527,549	93	5.1%	5.6%
Football Manager 2013	1,136,583	1,159,517	1,238,875	1,263,874	89	0.6%	0.8%
Arma 3	1,134,030	1,158,991	1,236,093	1,263,300	68	-15.6%	-16.9%
Mirror's Edge	1,133,585	1,964,608	1,235,608	2,141,423	86	-0.5%	-0.6%
Zombie Panic Source	1,130,505	1,140,676	1,232,250	1,243,337	87	-0.7%	-0.5%
Arma 2	1,121,591	1,925,303	1,222,534	2,098,580	90	0.5%	1.1%
Trine 2	1,104,937	1,741,302	1,204,381	1,898,019	85	-4.1%	-3.6%
Battlefield: Bad Company 2	1,089,377	1,159,315	1,187,421	1,263,653	95	1.3%	2.1%
Day of Defeat	1,082,003	6,309,761	1,179,383	6,877,639	94	0.5%	1.0%
Counter-Strike: Condition Zero Deleted Scenes	1,059,717	7,049,898	1,155,092	7,684,389	96	0.3%	2.4%
Orcs Must Die! 2	1,051,005	1,516,660	1,145,595	1,653,159	97	0.4%	0.3%
Goat Simulator	1,024,991	1,114,257	1,117,240	1,214,540	New Entry	.	.
The Witcher: Enhanced Edition	1,013,200	1,418,318	1,104,388	1,545,967	New Entry	.	.

Key:
Free to play for a period this month (numbers are artificially inflated)
Was free to play for a period last month (numbers have returned to reflect actual ownership this month)
Includes people who own Total War: Shogun 2 - Fall of the Samurai and do not technically own Total War: Shogun 2
Other Total War title

Owners and Players (Historical strategyish titles):



Horizontal bands indicate data is for multiple months and the exact split is unknown due to the game being free to play for a period.

Known sales points for Total War titles:

thanks for the update. I still do not understand the relation between people that have the game in their account and people that play the game.

If we take Rome 2 we can assume that about 1.2-1.3 million users have bought it. But when I look on your bar the amount of how many play the game (active players) they are close to equal, isn't it? So does it mean that everyone that owns Rome 2 has played it at least once? Or does it mean they are playing it on a regular basis (daily etc.), what exactly means "active players"?


ps: for your calibration you can also take into consideration the amount of registered user. Which was reported here.
http://www.gamespot.com/articles/ste.../1100-6422489/

with a pinch of salt though because this number seems to grow very dynamically. I am not even sure if fake and second accounts etc are included into that figure or if those are really all active accounts.

The number of players is the number of steam accounts that have any time recorded in game. I include this for two reasons - one, Ars Technica did it and it made it easier to compare my data to theirs. Two - generally the longer a game has been out the larger the proportion of people who haven't actually played it (probably people buying so many games during sales that it takes them years to getting around to playing them all, if ever). Performing an analysis of percentages of people still playing therefore unfairly penalises these games. Comparing the number still playing to the number who have ever played gives a more accurate analysis of the continuing popularity of a title.

The number of players playing recently on the other hand is the number of have played in the past two weeks. Here's an update on that graph:

[the_eye]

Only one item of note in December, but I'm going to also slip in an item from this month:

• 18th December - Steam Holiday Sale
• 8th January - Venturebeat interview reveals some Total War Statistics

Here's the progress of the recent major releases:


Top 100 Steam games as of December:

Game	Players	Owners	Players (9% adjustment)	Owners (9% adjustment)	Position Last Month	Players Growth	Owners Growth
Dota 2	36,855,346	37,034,625	40,172,327	40,367,741	1	4.6%	4.6%
Team Fortress 2	22,175,505	22,251,088	24,171,300	24,253,686	2	3.7%	3.8%
Counter-Strike: Source	8,644,411	11,999,417	9,422,408	13,079,365	3	2.8%	3.8%
Left 4 Dead 2	8,524,153	10,221,524	9,291,327	11,141,461	4	3.2%	3.0%
Counter-Strike: Global Offensive	8,520,158	8,950,993	9,286,972	9,756,582	5	12.3%	12.2%
Unturned	6,916,894	9,463,005	7,539,414	10,314,675	6	8.2%	9.9%
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim	6,668,062	7,136,198	7,268,188	7,778,456	8 (+1)	7.2%	7.9%
Counter-Strike	6,494,340	9,876,369	7,078,831	10,765,242	7 (-1)	2.4%	3.9%
Garry's Mod	6,068,990	6,753,706	6,615,199	7,361,540	9	8.5%	8.7%
Sid Meier's Civilization V	5,703,205	6,132,369	6,216,493	6,684,282	10	4.0%	4.0%
Portal	4,814,077	7,115,677	5,247,344	7,756,088	11	3.4%	3.8%
Portal 2	4,489,153	5,330,556	4,893,177	5,810,306	12	6.1%	7.3%
Terraria	4,415,640	4,873,933	4,813,048	5,312,587	13	8.4%	9.2%
Half-Life 2	3,995,084	7,825,018	4,354,642	8,529,270	14	2.6%	2.4%
Alien Swarm	3,670,523	3,690,136	4,000,870	4,022,248	15	3.1%	3.0%
Borderlands 2	3,594,831	4,000,931	3,918,366	4,361,015	16	4.5%	4.8%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2	3,449,766	3,959,054	3,760,245	4,315,369	17	2.8%	3.0%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 - Multiplayer	3,330,526	3,964,720	3,630,273	4,321,545	18	2.7%	3.0%
PAYDAY 2	2,909,170	3,183,718	3,170,995	3,470,253	20 (+1)	9.8%	10.0%
Counter-Strike: Condition Zero	2,724,916	7,406,423	2,970,158	8,073,001	19 (-1)	2.3%	5.0%
Call of Duty: Black Ops	2,624,671	2,825,452	2,860,891	3,079,743	21	3.5%	3.3%
Robocraft	2,579,234	3,976,524	2,811,365	4,334,411	24 (+2)	11.2%	12.0%
DayZ	2,551,086	2,588,351	2,780,684	2,821,303	23	6.6%	6.6%
Half-Life 2: Deathmatch	2,513,022	10,250,435	2,739,194	11,172,974	22 (-2)	2.5%	1.6%
Fallout: New Vegas	2,434,279	2,918,214	2,653,364	3,180,853	25	6.7%	7.6%
Warframe	2,372,316	3,921,571	2,585,824	4,274,512	34 (+8)	11.7%	15.7%
Grand Theft Auto IV	2,356,662	2,931,435	2,568,762	3,195,264	31 (+4)	7.2%	7.3%
Empire: Total War	2,324,881	2,680,641	2,534,120	2,921,899	26 (-2)	3.5%	5.0%
Metro 2033	2,303,416	4,027,700	2,510,723	4,390,193	28 (-1)	3.4%	2.4%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3	2,285,183	2,593,327	2,490,849	2,826,726	29 (-1)	3.0%	3.4%
Call of Duty: Black Ops - Multiplayer	2,283,621	2,826,468	2,489,147	3,080,850	30 (-1)	3.1%	3.3%
Left 4 Dead	2,277,592	2,928,602	2,482,575	3,192,176	27 (-5)	1.6%	3.3%
Magicka	2,269,819	2,750,268	2,474,103	2,997,792	32 (-1)	3.9%	4.2%
PAYDAY: The Heist	2,229,648	3,234,676	2,430,316	3,525,797	33 (-1)	4.4%	2.7%
Killing Floor	2,218,825	2,467,875	2,418,519	2,689,984	35	5.4%	5.4%
Arma 2: Operation Arrowhead	2,188,642	2,947,634	2,385,620	3,212,921	38 (+2)	4.7%	3.7%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - Multiplayer	2,162,637	2,596,523	2,357,274	2,830,210	37	3.2%	3.3%
Day of Defeat: Source	2,149,053	5,133,952	2,342,468	5,596,008	36 (-2)	2.3%	2.4%
Saints Row: The Third	2,126,861	2,681,876	2,318,278	2,923,245	39	3.9%	4.0%
BioShock Infinite	2,100,057	2,792,073	2,289,062	3,043,360	40	5.1%	5.6%
Torchlight II	2,054,329	2,286,926	2,239,219	2,492,749	41	3.7%	4.2%
Just Cause 2	2,035,805	2,811,541	2,219,027	3,064,580	43 (+1)	5.6%	6.6%
Half-Life 2: Lost Coast	2,000,284	12,007,408	2,180,310	13,088,075	42 (-1)	1.3%	1.7%
Dead Island	1,945,512	2,310,353	2,120,608	2,518,285	44	3.1%	3.1%
Tomb Raider	1,925,936	2,439,146	2,099,270	2,658,669	47 (+2)	7.4%	9.6%
Heroes & Generals	1,923,103	3,153,644	2,096,182	3,437,472	50 (+4)	9.1%	11.5%
Sniper Elite V2	1,907,703	2,913,384	2,079,396	3,175,589	46 (-1)	3.7%	2.6%
The Binding of Isaac	1,872,653	2,193,037	2,041,192	2,390,410	51 (+3)	8.4%	8.6%
Chivalry: Medieval Warfare	1,869,857	2,052,803	2,038,144	2,237,555	45 (-4)	0.0%	0.1%
Rust	1,862,919	1,904,071	2,030,582	2,075,437	48 (-2)	4.3%	4.6%
Total War: SHOGUN 2	1,816,284	2,017,609	1,979,750	2,199,194	49 (-2)	2.9%	3.5%
XCOM: Enemy Unknown	1,761,875	2,217,554	1,920,444	2,417,134	52	4.1%	4.2%
War Thunder	1,733,909	2,849,169	1,889,961	3,105,594	58 (+5)	13.6%	18.2%
Far Cry\u00ae 3	1,710,736	2,047,210	1,864,702	2,231,459	55 (+1)	7.9%	6.9%
Half-Life 2: Episode One	1,702,673	4,692,548	1,855,914	5,114,877	53 (-2)	2.5%	2.6%
Borderlands	1,668,459	1,899,385	1,818,620	2,070,330	54 (-2)	4.0%	4.7%
Don't Starve	1,651,352	1,924,701	1,799,974	2,097,924	62 (+5)	12.3%	17.7%
DC Universe Online	1,634,535	1,646,630	1,781,643	1,794,827	56 (-2)	4.6%	4.5%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Multiplayer	1,628,542	1,944,604	1,775,111	2,119,618	57 (-2)	4.5%	4.4%
Loadout	1,599,377	2,581,559	1,743,321	2,813,899	63 (+3)	8.9%	12.9%
PlanetSide 2	1,556,918	2,396,796	1,697,041	2,612,508	67 (+6)	11.2%	14.2%
Deus Ex: Human Revolution	1,554,557	1,919,507	1,694,467	2,092,263	59 (-3)	1.9%	1.9%
FTL: Faster Than Light	1,545,368	1,866,769	1,684,451	2,034,778	61 (-2)	4.8%	5.4%
Half-Life 2: Episode Two	1,544,932	4,142,364	1,683,976	4,515,177	60 (-4)	2.4%	3.0%
The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition	1,536,651	2,282,858	1,674,950	2,488,315	65	5.4%	6.8%
Warhammer\u00ae 40000\u2122: Dawn of War\u00ae II	1,510,464	1,893,683	1,646,406	2,064,114	64 (-2)	3.5%	3.2%
Age of Empires II: HD Edition	1,490,270	1,782,832	1,624,394	1,943,287	69 (+2)	11.0%	12.1%
Castle Crashers	1,464,047	1,825,836	1,595,811	1,990,161	88 (+20)	28.7%	30.3%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II	1,462,957	1,929,895	1,594,623	2,103,586	66 (-3)	3.4%	4.5%
Starbound	1,430,268	1,468,296	1,558,992	1,600,443	68 (-2)	3.9%	3.9%
Total War: ROME II	1,413,706	1,510,428	1,540,940	1,646,367	70 (-1)	7.9%	8.5%
Super Meat Boy	1,372,664	1,760,023	1,496,204	1,918,425	85 (+13)	16.8%	21.4%
Dishonored	1,368,995	1,697,334	1,492,205	1,850,094	71 (-2)	5.3%	7.4%
Half-Life	1,355,448	4,657,136	1,477,438	5,076,278	72 (-2)	4.3%	2.9%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Zombies	1,350,254	1,932,292	1,471,777	2,106,198	73 (-2)	4.8%	4.5%
BioShock	1,343,898	2,218,462	1,464,849	2,418,124	74 (-2)	6.4%	6.5%
Dead Island: Epidemic	1,340,956	3,074,829	1,461,642	3,351,564	New Entry	.	.
No More Room in Hell	1,331,694	2,175,313	1,451,546	2,371,091	81 (+3)	11.4%	14.8%
Dark Souls: Prepare to Die Edition	1,329,769	1,607,222	1,449,448	1,751,872	75 (-4)	6.6%	6.5%
Path of Exile	1,301,693	2,042,815	1,418,845	2,226,668	83 (+3)	10.3%	12.6%
Bastion	1,283,497	1,713,678	1,399,012	1,867,909	76 (-5)	3.3%	4.2%
Dungeon Defenders	1,275,652	1,570,647	1,390,461	1,712,005	80 (-2)	6.2%	7.2%
Mount & Blade: Warband	1,268,860	1,458,017	1,383,057	1,589,239	87 (+4)	10.9%	12.3%
Arma 3	1,260,506	1,295,628	1,373,952	1,412,235	90 (+6)	11.2%	11.8%
Mafia II	1,256,692	1,679,972	1,369,794	1,831,169	77 (-8)	3.3%	3.8%
Napoleon: Total War	1,252,879	1,552,487	1,365,638	1,692,211	78 (-8)	3.3%	3.6%
Serious Sam HD: The Second Encounter	1,239,549	1,253,932	1,351,108	1,366,786	79 (-8)	3.0%	3.0%
The Walking Dead	1,234,609	1,460,741	1,345,724	1,592,208	84 (-4)	4.8%	5.0%
Hitman: Absolution	1,213,398	1,603,045	1,322,604	1,747,319	86 (-3)	4.1%	5.2%
Mirror's Edge	1,208,458	2,067,295	1,317,219	2,253,352	91 (+1)	6.6%	5.2%
Arma 2	1,178,458	2,022,694	1,284,519	2,204,736	93 (+2)	5.1%	5.1%
Rising Storm\/Red Orchestra 2 Multiplayer	1,178,385	2,122,067	1,284,440	2,313,053	82 (-10)	-1.0%	-0.8%
Trine 2	1,170,104	1,854,892	1,275,413	2,021,832	94 (+1)	5.9%	6.5%
Battlefield: Bad Company 2	1,165,491	1,248,702	1,270,385	1,361,085	95 (+1)	7.0%	7.7%
Zombie Panic Source	1,160,515	1,169,196	1,264,961	1,274,424	92 (-3)	2.7%	2.5%
Saints Row IV	1,160,007	1,435,680	1,264,408	1,564,891	New Entry	.	.
Football Manager 2013	1,149,437	1,171,775	1,252,886	1,277,235	89 (-8)	1.1%	1.1%
Euro Truck Simulator 2	1,149,256	1,361,078	1,252,689	1,483,575	New Entry	.	.
Goat Simulator	1,148,711	1,251,244	1,252,095	1,363,856	99	12.1%	12.3%
Orcs Must Die! 2	1,100,332	1,583,287	1,199,362	1,725,783	98 (-2)	4.7%	4.4%

Key:
Free to play for a period this month (numbers are artificially inflated)
Was free to play for a period last month (numbers have returned to reflect actual ownership this month)
Includes people who own Total War: Shogun 2 - Fall of the Samurai and do not technically own Total War: Shogun 2
Other Total War title

Owners and Players (Historical strategyish titles):



Horizontal bands indicate data is for multiple months and the exact split is unknown due to the game being free to play for a period.

Known sales points for Total War titles:



Now for the reason I added the Venturebeat interview in the monthly summary. Late December I decided I would add a graph of number of players starting a Total War title each month. It's nice to see that once again my figures match up reasonably well numbers released by a company:



Note that the numbers of the individual titles do not add up to the 'any Total War Game' number because some accounts play multiple Total War titles in a month.

[pyj99]

Hello the_eye

I spitted the same interview

Nice to see it confirms your estimates

[the_eye]

A few releases in January, plus some more stats released by developers.

• 15th January - Saints Row IV Free Weekend
• 15th January - Civilization Beyond Earth Free Weekend
• 15th January - H1Z1 Early Access Release
• 15th January - Evolve Closed Beta
• 23rd January - Bohemia Interactive announce DayZ has sold 3 million copies
• 27th January - Dying Light Release
• 30th January - Introversion announce that Prison Architect has sold 1,066,233 copies
• 30th January - Young Horses announce Octodad: Dadliest Catch has sold 459,735 copies

First let's look at the released sales figures and see how my scaling factor of 1.09 is looking. You can see from my last post that at the end of December I had DayZ at 2,588,351 copies, excluding the scaling factor. By 22nd January that was up to 2,689,144, which would make the scaling factor 1.116. My stats show Prison Architect at 912,547 copies on 29th January, which would make the scaling factor 1.168, although it appears there may be a non-Steam version, which would cause that to be an overestimate. For Octodad: Dadliest Catch my stats for 29th January have it at 264,262 copies. If all copies except PS4 are Steam copies then it has actually sold 309,861 copies, which would make the scaling factor 1.173. All results still show 1.09 as being too low, but there's still enough uncertainty to dissuade me from making any changes at this point.

On to the graphs and figures. Here's the progress of the recent major releases:


The dashed line indicates results that are skewed by a free-to-play period. Numbers for Evolve are currently taken from the closed beta, which seems to have a different Steam appid to the full game. This means that actual pre-sales for Evolve may be different to what is shown and are most likely higher.

The Sega FY2015 Q3 results (Oct-Dec inclusive) are due out soon. As you can see from this graph, I'm expecting them to show Football Manager 2015 sales of around 650,000 copies for the quarter (which ended at about the 60-day mark).

Top 100 Steam games as of January:

Game	Players	Owners	.	.	Position Last Month	Players Growth	Owners Growth
Dota 2	39,984,632	40,187,565	43,583,249	43,804,446	1	8.5%	8.5%
Team Fortress 2	23,123,989	23,202,475	25,205,148	25,290,698	2	4.3%	4.3%
Counter-Strike: Global Offensive	9,309,697	9,700,715	10,147,570	10,573,779	5 (+2)	9.3%	8.4%
Left 4 Dead 2	8,653,759	10,273,452	9,432,597	11,198,063	4	1.5%	0.5%
Counter-Strike: Source	8,496,080	11,752,435	9,260,727	12,810,154	3 (-2)	-1.7%	-2.1%
Unturned	7,711,453	10,757,097	8,405,484	11,725,236	6	11.5%	13.7%
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim	6,864,131	7,300,402	7,481,903	7,957,438	7	2.9%	2.3%
Garry's Mod	6,521,431	7,175,248	7,108,360	7,821,020	9 (+1)	7.5%	6.2%
Counter-Strike	6,315,198	9,530,072	6,883,566	10,387,778	8 (-1)	-2.8%	-3.5%
Sid Meier's Civilization V	5,860,779	6,291,865	6,388,249	6,858,133	10	2.8%	2.6%
Portal	4,869,448	7,145,079	5,307,698	7,788,136	11	1.2%	0.4%
Portal 2	4,622,676	5,466,698	5,038,717	5,958,701	12	3.0%	2.6%
Terraria	4,583,551	5,027,835	4,996,071	5,480,340	13	3.8%	3.2%
Half-Life 2	3,984,180	7,582,528	4,342,756	8,264,956	14	-0.3%	-3.1%
Alien Swarm	3,645,958	3,671,884	3,974,094	4,002,354	15	-0.7%	-0.5%
Borderlands 2	3,637,473	4,021,655	3,964,846	4,383,604	16	1.2%	0.5%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2	3,437,840	3,944,819	3,747,246	4,299,853	17	-0.3%	-0.4%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 - Multiplayer	3,328,478	3,949,061	3,628,041	4,304,476	18	-0.1%	-0.4%
PAYDAY 2	3,051,065	3,300,194	3,325,661	3,597,211	19	4.9%	3.7%
Robocraft	2,886,315	4,559,274	3,146,083	4,969,609	22 (+2)	11.9%	14.7%
Warframe	2,682,203	4,597,457	2,923,601	5,011,228	26 (+5)	13.1%	17.2%
Counter-Strike: Condition Zero	2,664,055	7,319,021	2,903,820	7,977,733	20 (-2)	-2.2%	-1.2%
DayZ	2,661,698	2,702,944	2,901,251	2,946,209	23	4.3%	4.4%
Call of Duty: Black Ops	2,572,605	2,758,097	2,804,139	3,006,326	21 (-3)	-2.0%	-2.4%
Half-Life 2: Deathmatch	2,510,382	9,824,454	2,736,316	10,708,655	24 (-1)	-0.1%	-4.2%
Fallout: New Vegas	2,436,374	2,892,914	2,655,648	3,153,276	25 (-1)	0.1%	-0.9%
Grand Theft Auto IV	2,424,118	2,999,919	2,642,289	3,269,912	27	2.9%	2.3%
Empire: Total War	2,337,853	2,690,688	2,548,260	2,932,850	28	0.6%	0.4%
Arma 2: Operation Arrowhead	2,283,172	3,012,647	2,488,657	3,283,785	36 (+7)	4.3%	2.2%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3	2,276,573	2,578,733	2,481,465	2,810,819	30	-0.4%	-0.6%
Metro 2033	2,276,101	3,976,402	2,480,950	4,334,278	29 (-2)	-1.2%	-1.3%
PAYDAY: The Heist	2,274,923	3,266,961	2,479,666	3,560,987	34 (+2)	2.0%	1.0%
Saints Row: The Third	2,268,088	2,876,180	2,472,216	3,135,036	39 (+6)	6.6%	7.2%
Left 4 Dead	2,241,219	2,931,097	2,442,929	3,194,896	32 (-2)	-1.6%	0.1%
Killing Floor	2,236,740	2,485,870	2,438,047	2,709,598	35	0.8%	0.7%
Magicka	2,234,619	2,696,816	2,435,735	2,939,529	33 (-3)	-1.6%	-1.9%
Call of Duty: Black Ops - Multiplayer	2,230,141	2,758,332	2,430,854	3,006,582	31 (-6)	-2.3%	-2.4%
Heroes & Generals	2,211,757	3,695,690	2,410,815	4,028,302	46 (+8)	15.0%	17.2%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - Multiplayer	2,170,039	2,581,797	2,365,343	2,814,159	37 (-2)	0.3%	-0.6%
BioShock Infinite	2,132,328	2,805,707	2,324,238	3,058,221	40	1.5%	0.5%
Day of Defeat: Source	2,109,465	4,974,097	2,299,317	5,421,766	38 (-3)	-1.8%	-3.1%
Torchlight II	2,092,260	2,339,975	2,280,563	2,550,573	41 (-1)	1.8%	2.3%
Just Cause 2	2,069,162	2,815,135	2,255,387	3,068,497	42 (-1)	1.6%	0.1%
Rust	2,015,895	2,063,976	2,197,326	2,249,734	50 (+6)	8.2%	8.4%
Half-Life 2: Lost Coast	1,996,096	11,611,961	2,175,745	12,657,037	43 (-2)	-0.2%	-3.3%
Tomb Raider	1,991,854	2,459,943	2,171,121	2,681,338	45 (-1)	3.4%	0.9%
Dead Island	1,964,749	2,304,621	2,141,576	2,512,037	44 (-3)	1.0%	-0.2%
War Thunder	1,963,335	3,382,687	2,140,035	3,687,129	53 (+5)	13.2%	18.7%
The Binding of Isaac	1,954,143	2,251,354	2,130,016	2,453,976	48 (-1)	4.4%	2.7%
Sniper Elite V2	1,945,186	2,920,019	2,120,253	3,182,821	47 (-3)	2.0%	0.2%
Chivalry: Medieval Warfare	1,882,020	2,059,263	2,051,402	2,244,597	49 (-2)	0.7%	0.3%
Total War: SHOGUN 2	1,855,622	2,050,778	2,022,628	2,235,348	51 (-1)	2.2%	1.6%
XCOM: Enemy Unknown	1,784,678	2,210,107	1,945,299	2,409,017	52 (-1)	1.3%	-0.3%
Don't Starve	1,768,887	2,061,619	1,928,087	2,247,165	57 (+3)	7.1%	7.1%
Loadout	1,734,240	2,930,389	1,890,322	3,194,124	60 (+5)	8.4%	13.5%
Far Cry\u00ae 3	1,730,940	2,051,249	1,886,725	2,235,861	54 (-2)	1.2%	0.2%
PlanetSide 2	1,719,627	2,782,373	1,874,393	3,032,787	61 (+4)	10.5%	16.1%
Half-Life 2: Episode One	1,719,155	4,629,276	1,873,879	5,045,911	55 (-3)	1.0%	-1.3%
DC Universe Online	1,681,209	1,692,522	1,832,518	1,844,849	58 (-1)	2.9%	2.8%
Borderlands	1,655,046	1,882,492	1,804,000	2,051,916	56 (-4)	-0.8%	-0.9%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Multiplayer	1,647,033	1,939,530	1,795,266	2,114,088	59 (-2)	1.1%	-0.3%
The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition	1,598,008	2,324,890	1,741,829	2,534,130	65 (+3)	4.0%	1.8%
Saints Row IV	1,584,574	1,921,381	1,727,186	2,094,305	96 (+33)	36.6%	33.8%
FTL: Faster Than Light	1,578,446	1,897,105	1,720,506	2,067,844	63 (-1)	2.1%	1.6%
Age of Empires II: HD Edition	1,558,412	1,841,716	1,698,669	2,007,470	67 (+2)	4.6%	3.3%
Half-Life 2: Episode Two	1,551,812	4,104,384	1,691,475	4,473,779	64 (-2)	0.4%	-0.9%
No More Room in Hell	1,528,243	2,587,218	1,665,785	2,820,068	78 (+11)	14.8%	18.9%
Deus Ex: Human Revolution	1,524,000	1,875,421	1,661,160	2,044,209	62 (-6)	-2.0%	-2.3%
Castle Crashers	1,521,172	1,872,592	1,658,077	2,041,125	68 (-1)	3.9%	2.6%
Starbound	1,504,673	1,551,812	1,640,094	1,691,475	70	5.2%	5.7%
Total War: ROME II	1,486,289	1,567,839	1,620,055	1,708,945	71	5.1%	3.8%
Warhammer\u00ae 40000\u2122: Dawn of War\u00ae II	1,483,461	1,854,444	1,616,972	2,021,344	66 (-6)	-1.8%	-2.1%
Dead Island: Epidemic	1,467,198	3,459,759	1,599,246	3,771,137	77 (+4)	9.4%	12.5%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II	1,455,413	1,924,210	1,586,400	2,097,389	69 (-5)	-0.5%	-0.3%
Dishonored	1,403,796	1,708,078	1,530,138	1,861,805	73 (-2)	2.5%	0.6%
Super Meat Boy	1,396,254	1,771,008	1,521,917	1,930,399	72 (-4)	1.7%	0.6%
Path of Exile	1,392,011	2,264,788	1,517,292	2,468,619	80 (+3)	6.9%	10.9%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Zombies	1,360,900	1,929,159	1,483,381	2,102,783	75 (-3)	0.8%	-0.2%
Dark Souls: Prepare to Die Edition	1,349,822	1,617,100	1,471,306	1,762,639	79	1.5%	0.6%
BioShock	1,345,580	2,196,672	1,466,682	2,394,372	76 (-4)	0.1%	-1.0%
Half-Life	1,339,923	4,366,005	1,460,516	4,758,945	74 (-7)	-1.1%	-6.3%
Arma 3	1,321,539	1,349,351	1,440,478	1,470,793	84 (+2)	4.8%	4.1%
Bastion	1,302,447	1,724,105	1,419,667	1,879,274	81 (-2)	1.5%	0.6%
Serious Sam HD: The Second Encounter	1,301,976	1,314,704	1,419,154	1,433,027	87 (+3)	5.0%	4.8%
Mafia II	1,285,713	1,685,215	1,401,427	1,836,884	85	2.3%	0.3%
Dungeon Defenders	1,283,828	1,559,826	1,399,373	1,700,210	82 (-4)	0.6%	-0.7%
Mount & Blade: Warband	1,282,885	1,457,299	1,398,345	1,588,456	83 (-4)	1.1%	0.0%
The Walking Dead	1,273,928	1,501,845	1,388,582	1,637,011	88	3.2%	2.8%
Napoleon: Total War	1,268,036	1,572,789	1,382,159	1,714,340	86 (-3)	1.2%	1.3%
Arma 2	1,240,695	2,124,079	1,352,358	2,315,246	91 (+1)	5.3%	5.0%
Euro Truck Simulator 2	1,240,224	1,434,201	1,351,844	1,563,279	98 (+7)	7.9%	5.4%
Hitman: Absolution	1,229,618	1,599,187	1,340,284	1,743,114	89 (-3)	1.3%	-0.2%
Mirror's Edge	1,225,847	2,047,713	1,336,173	2,232,007	90 (-3)	1.4%	-0.9%
Goat Simulator	1,218,304	1,315,882	1,327,951	1,434,311	99 (+5)	6.1%	5.2%
Zombie Panic Source	1,182,243	1,191,671	1,288,645	1,298,921	95	1.9%	1.9%
Rising Storm\/Red Orchestra 2 Multiplayer	1,182,008	2,102,630	1,288,389	2,291,867	92 (-4)	0.3%	-0.9%
Trine 2	1,181,065	1,828,518	1,287,361	1,993,085	93 (-4)	0.9%	-1.4%
Battlefield: Bad Company 2	1,177,529	1,257,901	1,283,507	1,371,112	94 (-4)	1.0%	0.7%
Football Manager 2013	1,152,781	1,169,516	1,256,531	1,274,772	97 (-2)	0.3%	-0.2%
Warface	1,129,448	2,065,155	1,231,098	2,251,019	New Entry	.	.

Key:
Free to play for a period this month (numbers are artificially inflated)
Was free to play for a period last month (numbers have returned to reflect actual ownership this month)
Includes people who own Total War: Shogun 2 - Fall of the Samurai and do not technically own Total War: Shogun 2
Other Total War title

Owners and Players (Historical strategyish titles):



Horizontal bands indicate data is for multiple months and the exact split is unknown due to the game being free to play for a period.

Known sales points for Total War titles:



In this case the dashed line indicates data that has a known source of inaccuracy.

Number of accounts which have played a Total War title within a 30 day period:



Note that the numbers of the individual titles do not add up to the 'any Total War title' number because some accounts play multiple Total War titles in a month. Here the dashed line again indicates results that are skewed by a free-to-play period.

Next month we'll have the first figures for Total War: Attila, which will be the first time I've been able to track a Total War title from launch. Based on previous titles, Sega's FY2015 forecasts and comments by Creative Assembly I'm expecting Attila to track similarly to Napoleon and Fall of the Samurai and to hit somewhere in the region of 400,000-500,000 sales by the end of March.

[alQamar]

Master of charts! Well done again keep them coming.

[the_eye]

Just the one notable release in January, plus some more stats released by developers.

• 9th February - Interstellar Marines Free Week
• 12th February - Company of Heroes 2 Free Weekend
• 12th February - Total War: Rome II Free Weekend
• 17th February - Total War: ATTILA Release
• 17th February - Crusader Kings II Free Weekend
• 26th February - Europa Universalis IV Free Weekend

Recent major releases:


The dashed line indicates results that are skewed by a free-to-play period. Evolve number pre-launch were higher than at launch - the pre-launch numbers came from the closed beta, which had a different game id on Steam.

I had predicted 400,000-500,000 sales of Attila by the end of March, which is clearly unlikely to happen. The question is whether figures of around 200,000 are a disappointment. My estimate was based on trying to extrapolate backwards from Napoleon and Fall of the Samurai sales, but given that concurrent player number for Attila appear to be higher than Napoleon it's quite possible my estimate was well off.

Top 100 Steam games as of February:

Game	Players	Owners	Players (9% Adjustment)	Owners (9% Adjustment)	Position Last Month	Players Growth	Owners Growth
Dota 2	41,829,153	42,098,707	45,593,777	45,887,591	1	4.6%	4.8%
Team Fortress 2	23,487,794	23,562,215	25,601,695	25,682,814	2	1.6%	1.6%
Counter-Strike: Global Offensive	9,784,051	10,186,764	10,664,616	11,103,573	3	5.1%	5.0%
Left 4 Dead 2	8,680,813	10,339,671	9,462,086	11,270,241	4	0.3%	0.6%
Counter-Strike: Source	8,548,861	11,803,015	9,318,258	12,865,286	5	0.6%	0.4%
Unturned	8,061,439	11,387,157	8,786,969	12,412,001	6	4.5%	5.9%
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim	6,979,346	7,409,046	7,607,487	8,075,860	7	1.7%	1.5%
Garry's Mod	6,699,885	7,351,580	7,302,875	8,013,222	8	2.7%	2.5%
Counter-Strike	6,387,341	9,653,306	6,962,202	10,522,104	9	1.1%	1.3%
Sid Meier's Civilization V	5,838,516	6,258,628	6,363,982	6,821,905	10	-0.4%	-0.5%
Portal	4,868,118	7,145,524	5,306,249	7,788,621	11	0.0%	0.0%
Portal 2	4,655,712	5,510,160	5,074,726	6,006,074	12	0.7%	0.8%
Terraria	4,649,743	5,091,636	5,068,220	5,549,883	13	1.4%	1.3%
Half-Life 2	3,943,313	7,562,588	4,298,211	8,243,221	14	-1.0%	-0.3%
Borderlands 2	3,695,855	4,103,394	4,028,482	4,472,699	16 (+1)	1.6%	2.0%
Alien Swarm	3,691,918	3,712,238	4,024,191	4,046,339	15 (-1)	1.3%	1.1%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2	3,374,485	3,889,148	3,678,189	4,239,171	17	-1.8%	-1.4%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 - Multiplayer	3,281,204	3,892,830	3,576,512	4,243,185	18	-1.4%	-1.4%
Robocraft	3,169,382	5,013,976	3,454,626	5,465,234	20 (+1)	9.8%	10.0%
PAYDAY 2	3,058,639	3,310,668	3,333,917	3,608,628	19 (-1)	0.2%	0.3%
Warframe	2,859,568	5,008,198	3,116,929	5,458,936	21	6.6%	8.9%
DayZ	2,728,442	2,764,764	2,974,002	3,013,593	23 (+1)	2.5%	2.3%
Counter-Strike: Condition Zero	2,716,250	7,403,776	2,960,713	8,070,116	22 (-1)	2.0%	1.2%
Call of Duty: Black Ops	2,560,105	2,757,334	2,790,514	3,005,494	24	-0.5%	0.0%
Fallout: New Vegas	2,489,430	2,930,941	2,713,479	3,194,726	26 (+1)	2.2%	1.3%
Half-Life 2: Deathmatch	2,462,633	9,867,680	2,684,270	10,755,771	25 (-1)	-1.9%	0.4%
Grand Theft Auto IV	2,439,774	2,993,552	2,659,354	3,262,972	27	0.6%	-0.2%
Heroes & Generals	2,431,963	4,091,901	2,650,840	4,460,172	38 (+10)	10.0%	10.7%
PAYDAY: The Heist	2,336,270	3,309,906	2,546,534	3,607,798	32 (+3)	2.7%	1.3%
Empire: Total War	2,321,665	2,659,418	2,530,615	2,898,766	28 (-2)	-0.7%	-1.2%
Metro 2033	2,314,235	4,013,416	2,522,516	4,374,623	31	1.7%	0.9%
Arma 2: Operation Arrowhead	2,300,138	3,037,113	2,507,150	3,310,453	29 (-3)	0.7%	0.8%
Magicka	2,280,073	2,764,065	2,485,280	3,012,831	36 (+3)	2.0%	2.5%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3	2,274,231	2,584,679	2,478,912	2,817,300	30 (-4)	-0.1%	0.2%
Killing Floor	2,256,324	2,496,542	2,459,393	2,721,231	35	0.9%	0.4%
Left 4 Dead	2,250,164	2,972,788	2,452,679	3,240,339	34 (-2)	0.4%	1.4%
Call of Duty: Black Ops - Multiplayer	2,230,924	2,759,112	2,431,707	3,007,432	37	0.0%	0.0%
Saints Row: The Third	2,229,210	2,837,534	2,429,839	3,092,912	33 (-5)	-1.7%	-1.3%
War Thunder	2,207,429	3,843,047	2,406,098	4,188,921	48 (+9)	12.4%	13.6%
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - Multiplayer	2,163,361	2,588,362	2,358,063	2,821,315	39 (-1)	-0.3%	0.3%
Just Cause 2	2,156,566	2,950,690	2,350,657	3,216,252	43 (+2)	4.2%	4.8%
BioShock Infinite	2,154,217	2,816,262	2,348,097	3,069,726	40 (-2)	1.0%	0.4%
Tomb Raider	2,124,245	2,684,183	2,315,427	2,925,759	46 (+3)	6.6%	9.1%
Torchlight II	2,117,070	2,349,477	2,307,606	2,560,930	42 (-2)	1.2%	0.4%
Day of Defeat: Source	2,107,799	5,000,832	2,297,501	5,450,907	41 (-4)	-0.1%	0.5%
Rust	2,072,303	2,128,373	2,258,810	2,319,927	44 (-2)	2.8%	3.1%
Half-Life 2: Lost Coast	1,997,500	11,646,806	2,177,275	12,695,019	45 (-2)	0.1%	0.3%
Sniper Elite V2	1,987,467	2,965,358	2,166,339	3,232,240	50 (+2)	2.2%	1.6%
Dead Island	1,980,355	2,328,015	2,158,587	2,537,536	47 (-2)	0.8%	1.0%
Chivalry: Medieval Warfare	1,945,240	2,129,706	2,120,312	2,321,380	51 (+1)	3.4%	3.4%
The Binding of Isaac	1,942,637	2,256,959	2,117,474	2,460,085	49 (-2)	-0.6%	0.2%
PlanetSide 2	1,875,835	3,034,319	2,044,660	3,307,408	57 (+5)	9.1%	9.1%
Don't Starve	1,845,546	2,168,695	2,011,645	2,363,878	54 (+1)	4.3%	5.2%
Total War: SHOGUN 2	1,842,562	2,034,203	2,008,393	2,217,281	52 (-2)	-0.7%	-0.8%
XCOM: Enemy Unknown	1,804,907	2,232,829	1,967,349	2,433,784	53 (-2)	1.1%	1.0%
Loadout	1,803,002	3,077,371	1,965,272	3,354,334	55 (-1)	4.0%	5.0%
Far Cry\u00ae 3	1,761,219	2,076,875	1,919,729	2,263,794	56 (-1)	1.7%	1.2%
DC Universe Online	1,705,022	1,718,357	1,858,474	1,873,009	59 (+1)	1.4%	1.5%
No More Room in Hell	1,702,990	2,896,842	1,856,259	3,157,558	67 (+8)	11.4%	12.0%
Half-Life 2: Episode One	1,696,894	4,611,517	1,849,614	5,026,554	58 (-2)	-1.3%	-0.4%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Multiplayer	1,693,910	2,019,281	1,846,362	2,201,016	61	2.8%	4.1%
Borderlands	1,676,511	1,912,157	1,827,397	2,084,251	60 (-2)	1.3%	1.6%
Total War: ROME II	1,618,409	1,724,834	1,764,066	1,880,069	71 (+8)	8.9%	10.0%
The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition	1,611,741	2,322,935	1,756,798	2,531,999	62 (-2)	0.9%	-0.1%
Age of Empires II: HD Edition	1,598,534	1,868,406	1,742,402	2,036,563	65	2.6%	1.4%
FTL: Faster Than Light	1,581,833	1,896,981	1,724,198	2,067,709	64 (-2)	0.2%	0.0%
Castle Crashers	1,570,975	1,915,523	1,712,363	2,087,920	69 (+2)	3.3%	2.3%
Starbound	1,538,781	1,586,850	1,677,271	1,729,667	70 (+2)	2.3%	2.3%
Dead Island: Epidemic	1,531,732	3,599,082	1,669,588	3,922,999	73 (+4)	4.4%	4.0%
Deus Ex: Human Revolution	1,526,779	1,872,978	1,664,189	2,041,546	68 (-2)	0.2%	-0.1%
Half-Life 2: Episode Two	1,518,016	4,089,996	1,654,637	4,458,096	66 (-5)	-2.2%	-0.4%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II	1,505,824	2,002,834	1,641,348	2,183,089	74 (+2)	3.5%	4.1%
Path of Exile	1,499,601	2,447,711	1,634,565	2,668,005	77 (+4)	7.7%	8.1%
Warhammer\u00ae 40000\u2122: Dawn of War\u00ae II	1,488,870	1,876,280	1,622,868	2,045,145	72 (-2)	0.4%	1.2%
Saints Row IV	1,466,709	1,768,458	1,598,713	1,927,619	63 (-12)	-7.4%	-8.0%
Super Meat Boy	1,407,972	1,760,330	1,534,689	1,918,760	76	0.8%	-0.6%
Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Zombies	1,406,321	2,007,279	1,532,890	2,187,934	78 (+1)	3.3%	4.0%
Dishonored	1,397,304	1,700,704	1,523,061	1,853,767	75 (-3)	-0.5%	-0.4%
Arma 3	1,372,476	1,402,320	1,495,999	1,528,529	82 (+3)	3.9%	3.9%
Dark Souls: Prepare to Die Edition	1,367,904	1,637,268	1,491,015	1,784,622	79 (-1)	1.3%	1.2%
BioShock	1,367,332	2,218,669	1,490,392	2,418,349	80 (-1)	1.6%	1.0%
Hitman: Absolution	1,344,028	1,876,915	1,464,991	2,045,837	92 (+10)	9.3%	17.4%
Mount & Blade: Warband	1,340,281	1,510,079	1,460,906	1,645,986	87 (+4)	4.5%	3.6%
Half-Life	1,335,963	4,400,572	1,456,200	4,796,623	81 (-3)	-0.3%	0.8%
Mafia II	1,291,450	1,695,434	1,407,681	1,848,023	85	0.4%	0.6%
Dungeon Defenders	1,282,814	1,571,927	1,398,267	1,713,400	86	-0.1%	0.8%
Bastion	1,278,814	1,692,195	1,393,907	1,844,493	83 (-4)	-1.8%	-1.9%
Euro Truck Simulator 2	1,273,798	1,467,598	1,388,440	1,599,682	91 (+3)	2.7%	2.3%
Napoleon: Total War	1,269,797	1,567,673	1,384,079	1,708,764	89	0.1%	-0.3%
Serious Sam HD: The Second Encounter	1,266,241	1,280,020	1,380,203	1,395,222	84 (-6)	-2.7%	-2.6%
The Walking Dead	1,265,162	1,491,410	1,379,027	1,625,637	88 (-3)	-0.7%	-0.7%
Arma 2	1,250,557	2,119,483	1,363,107	2,310,236	90 (-2)	0.8%	-0.2%
Goat Simulator	1,245,921	1,339,519	1,358,054	1,460,076	94 (+1)	2.3%	1.8%
Counter-Strike Nexon: Zombies	1,244,842	2,526,831	1,356,878	2,754,246	New Entry	.	.
Mirror's Edge	1,235,253	2,073,636	1,346,426	2,260,263	93 (-2)	0.8%	1.3%
Rising Storm\/Red Orchestra 2 Multiplayer	1,227,125	2,157,773	1,337,566	2,351,973	96	3.8%	2.6%
Warface	1,221,982	2,207,239	1,331,960	2,405,891	100 (+3)	8.2%	6.9%
Space Engineers	1,220,522	1,333,106	1,330,369	1,453,086	New Entry	.	.
Trine 2	1,194,550	1,869,993	1,302,060	2,038,292	97 (-2)	1.1%	2.3%
Zombie Panic Source	1,162,229	1,172,960	1,266,830	1,278,526	95 (-5)	-1.7%	-1.6%

Key:
Free to play for a period this month (numbers are artificially inflated)
Was free to play for a period last month (numbers have returned to reflect actual ownership this month)
Includes people who own Total War: Shogun 2 - Fall of the Samurai and do not technically own Total War: Shogun 2
Other Total War title

Owners and Players (Historical strategyish titles):



Horizontal bands indicate data is for multiple months and the exact split is unknown due to the game being free to play for a period. Note that Rome II, Europa Universalis IV and Crusader Kings II all have skewed results due to recent free-to-play periods.

Known sales points for Total War titles:



In this case the dashed line indicates data that has a known source of inaccuracy.

Number of accounts which have played a Total War title within a 30 day period (I'm now applying the 1.09 scaling factor to this graph as well):



Note that the numbers of the individual titles do not add up to the 'any Total War title' number because some accounts play multiple Total War titles in a month. Here the dashed line again indicates results that are skewed by a free-to-play period.

Last month I pointed out that the Sega FY2015 Q3 results were due soon and predicted Football Manager 2015 to have reported sales of around 650,000 copies. The results are now out and Football Manager 2015 was reported to have sold 640,000 copies, which I believe further validates the accuracy of my figures.

[NostalgiaFan]

Sorry for not posting something as useful as you guys have but has there been any news on the sales of Attila? From what I am reading here and from others outside it seems that Attila is not doing as well as others hoped it would in the first months or so?