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Thread: How about that Ebola thing

  1. #161

    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Hookah Smoking Caterpiller View Post
    Your posts are mostly nonsense. With little substance and largely hysterical imaginary conjecture. The images you use are often irrelevant. Commonly your posts don't even hang together grammatically.
    Well, that's an interesting commentary on the quality of my posts. Shall we dissect the grammar in your own post?

    I think you meant this instead, "Your posts are mostly comprised of nonsensical, hysterical, imaginary conjectures lacking substance. The images you use are often irrelevant. It's not uncommon that your posts are grammatically incorrect."

    Your post was an abortive attempt to correct my grammar, added nothing further to the discussion, and was itself riddled with grammatical errors, and comprised of fragments, not sentences.

    If this is how you manage debate, then I'll be happy to comb through your posts, looking for grammatical errors, and correct them for you here. If you think this will add to the discussion, I can certainly accomplish this. I doubt I'm the one producing posts that are error-prone by comparison.
    Last edited by RubiconDecision; August 10, 2014 at 07:07 PM.

  2. #162

    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Hookah Smoking Caterpiller View Post
    I don't think you know how grammar works.
    Hmmm. Do you mean this instead? "I see no evidence in your posts that you possess an understanding of grammar.". Grammar doesn't work. Grammar is a collection of rules and cannot "work". Try again, but hopefully with more comprehension.

  3. #163

    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Hookah Smoking Caterpiller View Post
    Er, maybe have more English lessons...
    That sentence was grammatically incorrect. I suggest this sentence instead.
    Perhaps you should have more English lessons?

    Your sentence is an interrogative and these end with a question mark. It's an incomplete sentence as well. You now have produced three grammatically incorrect sentences as well as incorrectly describing grammar as being able to work. In Baseball, the umpire would say, "Three strikes. You're out!", but please continue as this discussion is amusing.

    Your post might have invoked the imperative mood, but I really don't want to waste more time explaining that or on the deficits in your English grammar. Do you?

    Perhaps discussing Ebola and the epidemiology and pandemic preparedness would be more fruitful?
    ...
    EDIT1: If anyone read the New England Journal of Medicine article I linked to, one of elements that stands out is out of 15 initial patients, only four hemorrhaged. One had a spontaneous abortion. Many of them died, but we have incomplete information. This means that it's possible for a patient to present with signs of gastroenteritis and die mysteriously. We could easily be missing cases. Those signs and symptoms could be dismissed as other common ailments. Some died immediately or in days, and we do not know the length of their condition. Many of the dead could have been buried by families and not known their loved ones had Ebola. We just don't know enough information yet.

    When 20 patients were tested by RT-PCR, only 15 were positive for Ebola, despite all 20 having the infection. That's consistent with the much earlier study about PCR on hemorrhagic fevers and false negatives.

    We also do not know the case fatality rate with any accuracy. The initial clade had a case fatality rate of 85%. We have sketchy details and reports of a case fatality rate across four African nations of 55%, but that doesn't include those who are very sick and dying still. So our estimation is probably on the low side, and a more accurate amount will emerge in a month when we have more patient data.

    It's possible that we need to be checking for coffee ground emesis and charting that instead, as that may indicate internal bleeding versus just RT-PCR, and maybe holding samples for later evaluation by lab technicians looking for unexplained blood in the stool or vomitus. Then if false negatives are generated, we still have samples to be tested. If a patient gets released too soon, it could be disastrous for infection control.

    In the US, we got lucky, for initial tests of a case of Marbug was completely missed, misdiagnosed, and only because the patient worsened did she get retested.
    Last edited by RubiconDecision; August 10, 2014 at 08:10 PM.

  4. #164
    Sogdog's Avatar Centenarius
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    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Hookah Smoking Caterpiller View Post
    I'm aware of all these things. Doesn't make African countries any less crap. The fact that they copied Russia just shows how stupid the people are.

    Ps. I'm not Russian.
    Not all African countries are crap, many are pleasant and well run. I live is SA and it is not a crap country by any stretch of the imagination.
    Last edited by Aikanár; August 11, 2014 at 01:56 PM. Reason: insulting others

  5. #165

    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Sogdog View Post
    Not all African countries are crap, many are pleasant and well run. I live is SA and it is not a crap country by any stretch of the imagination.
    The highest murder/rape rates in the world. A declining economy dependent on simple resource exports. A one party state descending more and more into corruption and nepotism. SA sadly to say is a crap country. I'm sure you feel yourself lucky to live in your white gated community, but don't pretend that fishbowl existence is representative for the type of life the average South African can expect.
    Last edited by Aikanár; August 11, 2014 at 01:57 PM. Reason: continuity

  6. #166

    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    If they're lucky, the Rainbow Nation will be the next Malaysia, as opposed to Zimbabwe.
    Eats, shoots, and leaves.

  7. #167

    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Sogdog View Post
    maybe not, but your ignorance and racism is distasteful. If African countries are dumb for copying russia then you are pretty stupid yourself for living there, or have you faked your avatar settings?
    Not all African countries are crap, many are pleasant and well run. I live is SA and it is not a crap country by any stretch of the imagination. You strike me as a typical westerner who slanders Africa because they are racist and actually have no clue!
    I have an abusive relationship with the USSR. Pretty much all African countries are crappy. Except maybe some of the North African ones.
    Hammer & Sickle - Karacharovo

    And I drank it strait down.

  8. #168

    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    Here's some of the information that's come in about Ebola in the last few hours.
    http://www.sunstar.com.ph/breaking-n...t-ports-359074
    Philippine Overseas Employment Administration (POEA) banned shore leaves for naval vessels in hot zones. That's smart thinking.

    http://www.ibtimes.co.in/ebola-outbr...g-virus-606567
    A resident of Mubai, traveled to Nigeria, and then back to Mubai, and he's being isolated for Ebola-like symptoms

    http://www.ibtimes.co.in/ebola-outbr...g-virus-606567
    The Ivory Coast has banned travelers from hot zones. That's prudent.

    http://www.newzimbabwe.com/news-1722...rica/news.aspx
    There are continued problems of food shortages, price gouging, and widespread hunger caused by the quarantines and travel restrictions. Some are ignoring these and continuing to attend churches, creating major problems for social distancing.

    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/lat...eat-over-Ebola
    UK security staff, that ensure legal entrance into the UK, are balking based upon discussions with their union. It's clear that they're the first in line to meet international travelers and are unprotected with proper PPE, and they may strike.

    http://www.ibtimes.com/ebola-virus-o...urn-us-1654186
    Mandatory quarantines will be imposed for three weeks for returning American Christian missionaries from hot zones. This seems very prudent given the time for infection to happen. Up until now, the quarantines were self-imposed.

    http://www.gov.rw/Ebola-suspected-case-Isolated
    There is a suspected Ebola case in Rwanda.
    Last edited by RubiconDecision; August 11, 2014 at 07:12 AM.

  9. #169
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    http://www.gov.rw/Ebola-suspected-case-Isolated
    There is a suspected Ebola case in Rwanda.
    Well I think Rwanda has little to worry about really. They are in the more typical Ebola zone anyway. And while Kagame is trending toward being an autocrat he has made a very well run efficient and educated state with comparatively low corruption for Africa.

    http://www.newzimbabwe.com/news-1723...ects/news.aspx
    Zimbabwe is monitoring 21 people suspected of Ebola infection who had visited hot zones in West Africa.
    No that's not what the story says, rather that have put in routine mentoring of people who come from reporting country for 21 days, take personal information and provided a lecture on what symptoms to be aware of.
    Last edited by conon394; August 11, 2014 at 06:56 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  10. #170

    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Well I think Rwanda has little to worry about really. They are in the more typical Ebola zone anyway. And while Kagame is trending toward being an autocrat he has made a very well run efficient and educated state with comparatively low corruption for Africa.

    No that's not what the story says, rather that have put in routine mentoring of people who come from reporting country for 21 days, take personal information and provided a lecture on what symptoms to be aware of.
    Thanks for catching that one. I'll remove it.

  11. #171
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    Again one of the broader problems remains that there are other hemorrhagic virus based illness in West Africa that produce the same initial symptoms such a Lassa fever. Given its prevalence in West Africa if everyone who goes there is screened or stopped there going to be a vast number of false positives.

    Which is why it would be nice to see say China carry its (supposed) weight in Economic terms and put more special funds in the WHO. Testing and quarantine at the airport / hospitals is going to strain most African countries budgets really hard - even the well run countries not in panic mode.
    Last edited by conon394; August 11, 2014 at 07:27 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  12. #172
    Maiar93's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    Well China's economy is in a big bubble right now due to all the (apparently pointless) building they've been doing.

    Has there been discussion about the possibility of people having natural immunity to Ebola? For example this study shows that antibodies to Ebola have been found in Gabonese people.
    Predictor of AAR Plot Points and a wannabe forum ninja

  13. #173
    Menelik_I's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
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    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    Darwin Award should go to NIGERIA!

    At least 2 people died after drinking water with salt to gain immunity from Ebola.

    http://en.starafrica.com/news/press-...us-others.html
    « Le courage est toujours quelque chose de saint, un jugement divin entre deux idées. Défendre notre cause de plus en plus vigoureusement est conforme ŕ la nature humaine. Notre supręme raison d’ętre est donc de lutter ; on ne possčde vraiment que ce qu’on acquiert en combattant. »Ernst Jünger
    La Guerre notre Mčre (Der Kampf als inneres Erlebnis), 1922, trad. Jean Dahel, éditions Albin Michel, 1934

  14. #174
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    Has there been discussion about the possibility of people having natural immunity to Ebola? For example this study shows that antibodies to Ebola have been found in Gabonese people.
    Well not natural immunity just exposure to a possible mild and as yet unknown strain of Ebola. Would that help vs on of really deadly forms - hard to say. And don't forget its not something to pass on. You might survive small pox, but your kids get no benefit from that. In any case any certain answer would require a long term longitudinal study and a lot more resources then west or central Africa is likely to see. Although the scale of this outbreak might shift funding
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  15. #175
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    Quote Originally Posted by RubiconDecision View Post
    Why bother when reporting on the facts with source material, and explanations of pandemic preparedness and source material for that is all more useful?
    Because virologists are lying to you.
    I don't appreciate the argument of authority, but,after all, aren't specialists supposed to know more than you? today I'm going on vacation for two weeks. Meanwhile,read my signature.
    -------
    Quote Originally Posted by Menelik_I View Post
    At least 2 people died after drinking water...l

    Not to "gain immunity". They probably heard that treatment is primarily supportive, balancing fluids and electrolytes...that's all.
    In fact early treatment may lead to higher survival rates. (60/ 70 %, or even more)


    conon394
    Well not natural immunity
    Recommended reading
    A splendid paper, Journal of Virology,

    Ebola Virus Pathogenesis: Implications for Vaccines and Therapies

    Baize et al. (2) characterized the immune responses of patients in two large Ebola virus outbreaks in Gabon in 1996. There was no significant difference in viral antigen load between survivors and nonsurvivors, but immune responses varied, suggesting that survival is dependent on the initial or innate immune response to infection.
    Vaccines,
    viral GP plays a key role in the manifestations of Ebola virus infection...

    ...In summary, an understanding of the mechanisms underlying Ebola virus-induced cytopathic effects has facilitated the process of vaccine and antiviral therapy development, which has in turn provided new information about pathogenesis and the immune response. Ebola virus does not exhibit the high degree of variability that other enveloped viruses may employ to evade host immunity, but Ebola virus GP alters target-cell function....,

    providing a rationale for focusing on GP as a target for a preventative vaccine and providing leads for other clinical interventions.

    ...Recently, an accelerated vaccination has been developed that confers protection against a lethal virus challenge in nonhuman primates after a single immunization (36a). If this vaccine works similarly in humans...

    ----
    Quote Originally Posted by Sogdog View Post
    well lets hear your conclusive list ...
    Don't waste your time trying to educate racists. Keep calm and ignore them all...
    Last edited by Ludicus; August 11, 2014 at 11:38 AM.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
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    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
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  16. #176
    Sogdog's Avatar Centenarius
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    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Hookah Smoking Caterpiller View Post
    I have an abusive relationship with the USSR. Pretty much all African countries are crappy. Except maybe some of the North African ones.
    well lets hear your conclusive list big guy. Add reasons why they are crappy as well. And just to be sure your list is not irrelevant make sure no european country fits the list either. Its difficult being a bigot.

  17. #177
    Sogdog's Avatar Centenarius
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    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    Quote Originally Posted by opock View Post
    The highest murder/rape rates in the world. A declining economy dependent on simple resource exports. A one party state descending more and more into corruption and nepotism. SA sadly to say is a crap country. I'm sure you feel yourself lucky to live in your white gated community, but don't pretend that fishbowl existence is representative for the type of life the average South African can expect.

    "The highest murder/rape rates in the world" -
    Nope, not SA. "Australia, Botswana and Lesotho had the highest average per capita of reported rape from 2004 to 2010. But tallying sheer totals, Europe and the Americas consistently top the charts."
    http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/globalpost-blogs/quick-click/which-country-has-the-highest-reported-incidents-rape-data
    http://www.statisticbrain.com/rape-statistics/


    "A declining economy dependent on simple resource exports"




    Economies are cyclical, SA's is no different, yet it outpaces developed economies.

    "A one party state descending more and more into corruption and nepotism."

    South Africa has a vibrant multiparty political system, with 13 parties represented in the National Assembly of Parliament.The African National Congress (ANC) is the majority party, with 249 of the 400 National Assembly seats. The party controls eight of the country's nine provinces, with the exception of the Western Cape, where the Democratic Alliance has been in power since 2009 elections. In 2014, the DA secured 59.38% of the provincial vote.The ANC controls seven of the eight metropolitan municipalities. Nonetheless, South Africa's opposition parties remain robust and vocal.South Africa's Parliament is made up of two houses: the National Assembly and the National Council of Provinces. The National Assembly is the more influential, passing legislation and overseeing executive performance. Its members are elected for a term of five years.All South African citizens over the age of 18 eligible to vote, if they register to do so. So far, South Africa has had fully inclusive democratic elections every five years since 1994. Before the end of apartheid, only white South Africans were allowed to vote for the national government.
    http://www.southafrica.info/about/democracy/polparties.htm#.U-jsovmSzsE

    Parties represented in Parliament

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...n_South_Africa

    http://www.transparency.org/country#ZAF for SA's international ratings.

    So you are very wrong on all accounts. Go get an education you ignoramus!

  18. #178
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    @Sogdog

    However rape or murder reporting can be tricky. Rape especially since in the US or Canada for example a victim face face the you were asking for it attack and shame. How much more so in places that use the Burka or female genital mutilation or women lack property rights etc. Murder is the same lots of countries hardly work how good are their statistics?

    I have now doubt the US with its broad gun rights racks a lot murders but I also suspect we do a better job than most nations outside of a few other wealthy ones in tracking them effectively. I indicate no distaste I am sure if I was in Kenya I prefere better roads than tracking crime and submitting it to the UN or whom ever else...
    Last edited by conon394; August 11, 2014 at 11:49 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  19. #179
    Sogdog's Avatar Centenarius
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    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    @Sogdog

    However rape or murder reporting can be tricky. Rape especially since in the US or Canada for example a victim face face the you were asking for it attack and shame. How much more so in places that use the Burka or female genital mutilation or women lack property rights etc. Murder is the same lots of countries hardly work how good are their statistics?

    I have now doubt the US with its broad gun rights racks a lot murders but I also suspect we do a better job than most nations outside of a few other wealthy ones in tracking them effectively. I indicate no distaste I am sure if I was in Kenya I prefere better roads than tracking crime and submitting it to the UN or whom ever else...
    Your points are valid. My point was that South Africa is not the hell-hole so many believe it is.

  20. #180

    Default Re: How about that Ebola thing

    Here's why AMRIID (The US Army Research wing for Infectious Disease [i.e. Bioweapons]) is concerned about aerosolized Ebola. Hopefully I've dispelled misconceptions about direct contact which if you go back includes the spray of fluids during coughing and sneezing within 3 feet. It's important to realize that medical terms might mean something different that the language seems to mean. I've also previously discussed the problematic cases where aerosolization was a concern, as there seemed to be little initial explanations for certain infections. Then I've demonstrated that aerosolization of Ebola was discussed by WHO, the Public Health Agency of Canada, in the scientific literature for epidemiology, as well as in the CDC's own FAQs, and that they released that information to airlines and to medical centers, but then three days later sanitized that "aersolization" from their publications, a troubling sign.

    Here's a report from a Veterinary Pathology journal that was done by AMRIID.
    http://vet.sagepub.com/content/50/3/514.full.pdf+html
    It discusses Ebola as an aersolized biological weapon. I'm not going to go into the details, but this is what I alluded to earlier. It's well known. It's a matter of concern. The only reason I'm discussing it is to conclusively prove that it's theoretically possible and why you should also be concerned about aersolized particles of Ebola being a vector of transmission.
    ...
    Re the salt being used a spurious and even harmful practice in West Africa.

    During the course of pandemics, a lot has been written in preparedness papers about false cures during a pandemic. Some charlatan always tries to sell a cure to gullible suffering patients and to people attempting to protect their family. Salt has a long history in magical thinking as a "purifying" element to ward off supernatural forces. This is probably a result of seeing that salt laid next to something like crops resulted in destroying the ability for them to grow as it contaminated the soil.

    In West Africa, there were reports of people broadcasting that salt should be placed around the bases of homes and buildings as a means of warding off evil. Then there were reports of salt being a cure for Ebola. I reported on this many posts back. At least 50 people were hospitalized by drinking a heavy concentration of salt water! Two people died of it.

    Salt alters your blood pressure. It alters the cardiac cycle (the several mechanisms of how the various parts of your heart beat and pump to provide circulation to your body and lungs in layman's terms) then it also alters fluid balance which the kidneys are attempting to control. So patients who have heart and kidney issues, which is a large part of any population, then could be seriously harmed by this spurious and harmful treatment.

    Watch for more of this as the Ebola crisis escalates. Many cures will no doubt come up. Already even serious medical people have discussed massive Vitamin C due to its role in collagen formation, although there is no evidence that the massive internal systemic bleeding would be altered by Vitamin C. Desperate people turn to hoodoo medicine, not scientific evidence based medicine.

    The problem is compounded in West Africa by shaman. They are the traditional native healers because honestly there might be 50 trained medical professional for 4 million people. Which means a physician cannot see many people, and logistics, costs, lack of drugs, inconvenience, etc mean using a shaman.

    So when a public health official, or the Peace Corp volunteer, or Doctor's Without Borders, of Samaritan's Purse goes in...they try to work with the shaman, create a partnership, so that the shaman don't see them as interlopers. That's a very delicate diplomatic process in which the newly arriving medical personnel attempts to use them as allies and tries to support them.

    By doing so, then the shaman might tell the medical staff about a patient who they couldn't cure, someone they want to be followed up on, someone who is worsening, someone who is getting better but transmitted the disease, etc. This is a very difficult thing to build up and takes time and trust.

    Now think: if a trained medical person cannot heal Ebola patients, and tells the family there is no cure, only supportive sanitary measures, then what will the typical West African response be? They will turn to their churches and to the shaman instead, for the medical staff have little they can do. This is why cases of Ebola are going unreported. This is why the churches are packed even when travel is restricted and illegal due to social distancing. This is why we should be very concerned.
    ...
    Let me reiterate something because I think it's going to bite us in the ass later. The test being used to detect Ebola is hard to get, it's called RT-PCR, must be shipped off to a test center, then they report the results, and then the patient has been released if the test is negative. When epidemiologists utilized this test in the past, they had 25% of the infected have false negatives. Now that is alarmingly HIGH. It means a potential to release 25% of infected folks, and perhaps we should be isolating and be very wary about letting someone who has come from a hot zone be around others. At the very least, we should be enforcing a voluntary quarantine for three weeks in this situation, and possibly a mandatory quarantine.

    I'm the last one who wants to do this, but in some of these cases, we have people from Sierra Leone, Liberia, Nigeria, etc who are refusing to answer patient history questions, making things difficult to assess the case, and so one of them could be infected. They scared, in a foreign country, and surrounded by security personnel. I get that. We should be cautious to protect them and to protect others. Many of them traveled through dense population centers because that's where a lot of airports are. One infected person traveling through Paris could infect all of Europe.

    This would be easy to do. "OK, your patient history includes a hot zone. You have gastrointestinal illness. You have a fever. Your results are negative, but we'd like you to be in voluntary quarantine. We will send supplies to you, but ask that you don't travel, and that if you need to go somewhere, that you call and we'll make arrangements."
    Last edited by RubiconDecision; August 11, 2014 at 04:05 PM.

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