Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

[DarthLazy]

Next you're gonna say Luhansk was basically unimportant as well. Too bad it means the game is up and the bprder can finally be sealed shut and russian wet dreams are gone for good

[snuggans]

Mariupol was barely defended in the first place. Just because Ukrainian soldiers came to a village that rebels did not even enter and proudly hoisted ukrainian flag on an outside port-a-potty, doesn't mean they've "taken" it. Strelkov left "besieged" Slavyansk to re-deploy his troops at much better defensible positions, effectively making it a strategic defeat for Kiev, whose goal was to keep rebels inside a pocket. Now a huge groups of Ukrainian troops got encircled themselves and rebels took more territory of Lugansk airport, which is still occupied by the paratroopers.

only you would try and turn the act of the terrorists losing so much territory as a "strategic victory". laughable

[Dromikaites]

Strelkov left "besieged" Slavyansk to re-deploy his troops at much better defensible positions, effectively making it a strategic defeat for Kiev, whose goal was to keep rebels inside a pocket.

You can't read a map, can you?

Spetsnaz colonel Girkin/Strelkov clung onto to Slaviansk because by holding that city he was practically cutting off Artemivsk from the rest of Ukraine.

One of the largest weapons and ammo depot in the whole Europe is located in Artemivsk. Only one good road led into it, M03. By holding Slaviansk and Horlivka, the terrorists controlled the entry and exit into Artemivsk along M03 and were hoping to eventually capture it and get their hands on an immense quantity of equipment.

If you want to know which are the truly important objectives for the terrorists you look where the Spetsnaz was sent: Mariupol (major port through which the terrorists could have been supplied), Slaviansk and Horlivka.

Also right next to Slaviansk there was the city of Kramatorsk, with a military airport. Had the terrorist held it, Moscow would have easily flown over reinforcements and weaponry.

This is why the first steps taken by the Ukrainians early in the crisis were to reinforce Artemivsk and to recapture the Kramatorsk airport and the city of Mariupol.

Only when the fall of Sloviansk became imminent did Russia send another wave of Spetsnaz troops (the Chechens) to Donetsk, to try to capture the airport there.

Girkin/Strelkov was allowed to flee Sloviansk because once his commandos ran away, the rest of the terrorists troops (~1,000 - 1,200 local idiots) melted away. They are now rounded up quietly by the Ukrainian police and SBU, without any shots being fired. Allowing him to flee ensured the disintegration of the largest group of terrorists while sparing the lives of the inhabitants of that city.

For Girkin/Strelkov Donetsk is a trap, not a much better defensible position.

He only has about 100 men and his "comrades in arms" there are various organized crime paramilitaries like the "Donetsk Vostok Battalion" outnumbering his men 4:1 if not 8:1.

Those organized crime paramilitaries ran to protect Riinat Akmetov's villa from being looted. That means that given enough incentives, they might hand Girkin/Strelkov over to the Ukrainians. Or they might simply accept the amnesty offer and let 100 Spetsnaz alone in a 1,000,000 people city.

Now a huge groups of Ukrainian troops got encircled themselves and rebels took more territory of Lugansk airport, which is still occupied by the paratroopers.

Believing the garbage spewed by the Russian media only exposes you to ridicule soon after.

Lugansk is about to be liberated by the Ukrainian army.

At the beginning of the week the Ukrainians managed to link up with their forces defending the airport for the last 3 months.

Then on Friday they liberated the south-eastern half of the city.

And now, after the West has arrived at the conclusion Russia is responsible for the murder of the 298 people on that plane, expect the game to be over soon.

[Heathen Hammer]

Next you're gonna say Luhansk was basically unimportant as well. Too bad it means the game is up and the bprder can finally be sealed shut and russian wet dreams are gone for good

But separatists still hold the border. And there is no way Kiev's army can take Lugansk, they can't even break through the forces pocketed in the airport.

only you would try and turn the act of the terrorists losing so much territory as a "strategic victory". laughable

Source that rebels are "terrorists", i.e. commit acts of terror?

You can't read a map, can you?

Spetsnaz colonel Girkin/Strelkov clung onto to Slaviansk because by holding that city he was practically cutting off Artemivsk from the rest of Ukraine.

So? Donetsk is more important, and at that time it was in danger so was a pariority. Plus there was a political side - Strelkov had to kick out Ahmetov's men who still clung to power in the city. Now that they've been removed from power, last influence of Ukrainian oligarchs is finally gone. Well, side form their armies lol.

One of the largest weapons and ammo depot in the whole Europe is located in Artemivsk. Only one good road led into it, M03. By holding Slaviansk and Horlivka, the terrorists controlled the entry and exit into Artemivsk along M03 and were hoping to eventually capture it and get their hands on an immense quantity of equipment.

Again, source that rebels are terrorists?

If you want to know which are the truly important objectives for the terrorists you look where the Spetsnaz was sent: Mariupol (major port through which the terrorists could have been supplied), Slaviansk and Horlivka.

Source that rebels are terrorists? And that they've sent "spetsnaz"?

Also right next to Slaviansk there was the city of Kramatorsk, with a military airport. Had the terrorist held it, Moscow would have easily flew over reinforcements and weaponry.

Again, why do you keep using the word "terrorists" if the rebels were no proven to commit any acts of terrorism aside from the accusations made by Ukraine KGB and authorities in Kiev?

Believing the garbage spewed by the Russian media only exposes you to ridicule soon after.

Lugansk is about to be liberated by the Ukrainian army.

Lol what? The occupants can't even relieve the troops that were encircled in the airport. It is a good thing, because that way more occupant's troops are tied there, leaving more vulnerable areas for rebels to strike at.

At the beginning of the week the Ukrainians managed to link up with their forces defending the airport for the last 3 months.

Then on Friday they liberated the south-eastern half of the city.

And now, after the West has arrived at the conclusion Russia is responsible for the murder of the 298 people on that plane, expect the game to be over soon.

Source for Russia being responsible? Again, why do you make up all this ridiculous propaganda that even makes Ukrainian media sound realistic?

[DarthLazy]

But separatists still hold the border. And there is no way Kiev's army can take Lugansk, they can't even break through the forces pocketed in the airport.

Source that rebels are "terrorists", i.e. commit acts of terror?

Luhansk airport was captured yesterday.

[Holger Danske]

Source for Russia being responsible? Again, why do you make up all this ridiculous propaganda that even makes Ukrainian media sound realistic?

You tell us how the pro-russians got their hands on the heavy AA equipment that shot down that airliner, and while you're at it you might as well explain why the pro-russians have been covering up the crash site (keeping international investigators away)... Either they want some shiney Western loot, cover up their (and putin's) screw-up, or both.

Nvm, you'll properly say it was the Ukrainians and CIA.

[athanaric]

Either they want some shiney Western loot, cover up their (and putin's) screw-up, or both.

Either way, their behaviour is disgraceful and a clear admission of guilt on their part.

[caratacus]

Either way, their behaviour is disgraceful and a clear admission of guilt on their part.

Disgraceful is not the word I would use, there are far worse than that. In their behavior, especially the disrespect they gave to the dead of this plane, they deserve nothing better than imprisonment for aiding and abetting mass murder.

As for Mr Putin.. I saw a report of him visiting a church on Sunday morning and lighting candles. I hope he realises that the blood of those people lies on his hands and that he as others will be anserable to the God he prays too. I only hope he is shown more compassion, than that which was shown to the relatives of the victims of Flight MH17 in the fields of the Donbas.

[Geronimo2006]

New reports the terrorists plan to give the black box to Russia to be faked.

[athanaric]

Disgraceful is not the word I would use, there are far worse than that. In their behavior, especially the disrespect they gave to the dead of this plane, they deserve nothing better than imprisonment for aiding and abetting mass murder.

The Netherlands should press charges against those people, especially the leaders of course. If they're declared war criminals and sought by Den Haag, maybe they'll be more eager to cooperate. Failing that, the Dutch and the Malaysians should just obtain complete access to the crash site and evidence by force.

Of course, all of this would be easier if the POTUS made a clear announcement (seeing as 23 of the murder victims were American, and all that). I wonder where he is?

[caratacus]

The Netherlands should press charges against those people, especially the leaders of course. If they're declared war criminals and sought by Den Haag, maybe they'll be more eager to cooperate. Failing that, the Dutch and the Malaysians should just obtain complete access to the crash site and evidence by force.

Of course, all of this would be easier if the POTUS made a clear announcement (seeing as 23 of the murder victims were American, and all that). I wonder where he is?

Not withstanding who was actually responsible for this atrocity, yes there needs to be a case made against those who have deliberately tried to conceal evidence as they are duplicitous in the crime. These people should be made aware that they are not above the law, despite their disguises and automatic weapons, and will be made answerable eventually for their actions in this affair.

I'm unsurprised by Obama's lack of comment, given his record on foreign policy and what is going on in the Gaza Strip, with hundreds of innocent people being killed by Israel shelling. He can hardly launch a blistering attack condemning Russian involvement in Eastern Ukraine, whilst remaining rather muted about what the Israelis are doing more directly

[LestaT]

It was probably a terrible accident.

So, whoever it was that pull the trigger actually intended to shoot a bird instead of an airplane ?

[nemgod]

So, whoever it was that pull the trigger actually intended to shoot a bird instead of an airplane ?

More like when the US shot down an Iranian passenger airline in the 1980s. They thought it was a military aircraft and not a civilian one.

[Sire Brenshar]

More like when the US shot down an Iranian passenger airline in the 1980s. They thought it was a military aircraft and not a civilian one.

I think what he means is even if it was a military plane it would still be a tradegy. Like when 49 soldiers died in an earlier antonov 26 downing.

[YuriVII]

Oh great, I see Dante has decided to reopen the asylum doors.

So, whoever it was that pull the trigger actually intended to shoot a bird instead of an airplane ?

They obviously knew they were shooting at a plane, they just thought it was a Ukrainian military plane and not a civilian airliner, because you know, the Ukrainians had been sending in air sorties against the rebels quite frequently. Maybe someone on the ground and/or the plane go through the proper SOPs. I highly doubt anyone would shoot this plane down on purpose. These are people fighting on both sides of the war, not cartoon villains.

[Dromikaites]

They obviously knew they were shooting at a plane, they just thought it was a Ukrainian military plane and not a civilian airliner, because you know, the Ukrainians had been sending in air sorties against the rebels quite frequently. Maybe someone on the ground and/or the plane go through the proper SOPs. I highly doubt anyone would shoot this plane down on purpose. These are people fighting on both sides of the war, not cartoon villains.

YuriiVII, we're past "they shot the airliner down by mistake".

The conversations among the leaders of the terrorists show they intended to enforce a strict no-flight zone over the territory they control and any kind of plane was considered potentially hostile ("they [=the Malaysian liner] were probably parachuting spies", "we told them not to fly over our skies").

The terrorist leaders had decided any plane is a potential threat because of their Spetsnaz training. As Spetsnaz officers they knew commandos can indeed be parachuted from civilian airliners.

They are also losing badly. As a result they had decided not to take any risks, with any kind of plane.

Before those phone records and those tweets have being authenticated the "honest mistake" could have some credibility. Not anymore.

Now the only interesting question is how badly will Russia be punished for this.

[LestaT]

More like when the US shot down an Iranian passenger airline in the 1980s. They thought it was a military aircraft and not a civilian one.

Oh great, I see Dante has decided to reopen the asylum doors.

They obviously knew they were shooting at a plane, they just thought it was a Ukrainian military plane and not a civilian airliner, because you know, the Ukrainians had been sending in air sorties against the rebels quite frequently. Maybe someone on the ground and/or the plane go through the proper SOPs. I highly doubt anyone would shoot this plane down on purpose. These are people fighting on both sides of the war, not cartoon villains.

Then it's no accident. Accident is like you're walking on the street and bird poops falls on your head. That is accident.

When human being decided to pull the trigger towards another human being then it's no accident. That's crime. War is just a crime on a bigger scale.

[Condottiere 40K]

Don’t Think Russian Rebels Can Learn How to Fire an Anti-Air Missile? Try This Simulator

SAM Simulator models old Soviet surface-to-air weapons





Here’s a morbid experiment. Try to see if you can figure out how to fire a Soviet anti-aircraft missile.
Turns out, it’s not exactly easy. But it’s not at all impossible for non-specialists given some experience and training. The U.S. believes Russia’s proxy rebels in eastern Ukraine received training from Russian advisers on to operate a 9K37 Buk missile system that destroyed Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 on July 17.
Turns out, people are training themselves how to operate sophisticated surface-to-air missile systems.
After the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, the Hungarian amateur surface-to-air missile community—yes, there is a community for this—got access to detailed documentation on how to operate the country’s various, decommissioned Soviet-made SAMs. The sleuths also got into contact with some of the out-of-work operators and came close enough to photograph the instrument panels.
Put it all together, the result is a free simulator—known as SAM Simulator—that is a close approximation of the real thing. There’s no Buk missile launcher. But the 2K11 Krug is available. Both the Buk and the Krug use semi-active radar homing missiles.

Soviet anti-air systems are also more alike than they are different. The Soviet military tried to duplicate its systems over succeeding generations as much as possible. That makes the weapons simple to produce and easy for conscripts to use.
These weapons are not idiot proof like comparatively simple shoulder-fired, anti-air missile launchers, or MANPADS. The instructions are complicated, and looking through the steps has an eerie feeling to it, considering what they’re capable of.
As was horrifically—and criminally—made clear last week, Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine knew enough to acquire a target and fire, but did not bother or were unable to correctly identify their target as a civilian aircraft. Two hundred ninety-eight people lost their lives.

The simulator’s graphics are rudimentary, animated photographs of actual missile radar and launch panels. It’s all buttons, switches and dials wrapped around ugly but functional CRT monitors.
Firing up the missile radar vehicle’s gas turbine is as simple as flipping a switch. Once the turbine picks up enough speed, you’ll see a red light, which means it’s time to flip another switch activating the fire-control radar. Next, a few buttons toggles the antenna, with follow-up instructions on how to rotate the antenna to begin scanning for targets.
The most laborious process is learning how to track and acquire targets. We’ll leave it at this: It’s best to read the instructions.
What’s left out is everything else. SAM operators have to know how to troubleshoot and maintain the weapon. There are instructions on how to reset the Krug’s tracking system, but there’s no instructions about the operating doctrine on how to deploy these weapons—that’s left to the computer and its various pre-set scenarios.
The same is true for correctly identifying targets. Staring at the monochrome screens, the operator is unable to distinguish transponder signals from aircraft. As MIT Technology Review points out, the Buk missile launcher can’t distinguish between the two unless the system is tied into the local civilian air traffic system. Otherwise the operator is just looking at a target’s range, speed and altitude.
In short, you could be untrained and still figure out how to fire one of these things, but not trained enough to really know what you’re doing.
Give a bunch of fat, drunken rebels one of these things, and it’s not hard to see why that was a disastrously irresponsible idea.
Correction: We initially confused the 2K11 Krug missile with the 2K12 Kub. The Buk succeeded the Kub, not the Krug.

https://medium.com/war-is-boring/don...r-8dd9e323ed12

[Dromikaites]

Don’t Think Russian Rebels Can Learn How to Fire an Anti-Air Missile? Try This Simulator

....

https://medium.com/war-is-boring/don...r-8dd9e323ed12[/I]

We're past that as well.

When the Russians provided the terrorists with Buk AA systems, they knew fully well that those systems won't be connected to the Ukrainian air traffic system. So either the Russians were planning to feed those systems data from their own air traffic systems (which cover that part of Ukraine) or they didn't care.

The content of the intercepted conversations and the Twitter posts show they didn't care. Given the terrorists were losing badly and given commandos can indeed be parachuted from civilian liners ("they were parachuting spies"), the decision was made to impose a strict no-fly zone over the area. Anything which flew within the range of the Buk systems would be shot down ("we told them not to fly over our skies").

As such there was no need to feed data from the Russian civilian traffic control. The fact the plane was civilian made no difference, it would have been shot down anyway.

Yes, there might be heavy repercussions. But the essence of the military problem is solved: now the risk of commandos dropping from civilian airliners is zero, since no airliner flies over the area anymore.

The Ukrainian air-force will now have to operate differently in the area. Instead of going for other ground targets, they would have to run anti AA missions first. It can be done with what the Ukrainians already have. And if they lack some equipment, NATO would happily provide it. But it might slow down the Ukrainian advance and thus buy the terrorists some time.

At least that seems to have been the thinking.

On the other hand the Ukrainians seem to have decided to step up their ground operations without that much air support. It would be more costly, but they have the numbers on their side.

[YuriVII]

Then it's no accident. Accident is like you're walking on the street and bird poops falls on your head. That is accident.

When human being decided to pull the trigger towards another human being then it's no accident. That's crime. War is just a crime on a bigger scale.

Well ok we are operating on two different philosophical planes then. Yes I suppose war is murder on a larger scale but a soldier firing on another soldier does not have the same seriousness as a soldier firing on a plane of civilians. If a soldier fires on a plane that is on a mission to kill him and his compatriots....I think you understand where I am going with this.


Listen Drom, the investigations have not finished yet. All I see is SBU releasing tapes so far and the media reaching conclusions before a lot of facts are known. We aren't past it because you say we are past it.