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Thread: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

  1. #181

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pielstick View Post
    Well Dromikaites you see if you're going to be offhand, dismissive or just downright condescending with people you need to make sure your theory is pretty much watertight and stands up to scrutiny.

    Allow me to elaborate...

    As you point out, the first problem with jumping out of an airliner that is six or seven miles up in the sky is the cabin pressure. When you open any door the aircraft will depressurise. From your explanation it's clear to me you don't understand that the passenger cabin and the cargo hold on an airliner are all in the same pressure vessel - the fuselage.
    It might be clear to you but it is wrong. See below.
    Quote Originally Posted by Pielstick View Post
    That means in order to actually open the door you would need to dump the pressure (remember, this is both in the passenger cabin including the flight deck, and the cargo hold). Only then could you actually get any door open. At which point you'd also better hope that everybody on board is breathing oxygen as well otherwise they've got a few seconds before they become unconcious.
    When pressure drops the oxygen masks are automatically released. The experience is unpleasant and dangerous, but the plane has systems in place to deal with it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Pielstick View Post
    So the notion that you can carry a bunch of guys in the cargo hold who can open a cargo door at cruise altitude and the passengers will know nothing about it is just plain wrong.
    The passengers would note the depressurization and the masks being released. They would not see the paratroopers. Therefore for the passengers the incident would look like the official version: an accident in mid-flight.
    Quote Originally Posted by Pielstick View Post
    If only we had a door on the rear lower section of the fuselage... then we can jump out and not have to be worried about hitting anything.

    Take another close look at the photograph of the BAC 1-11 in the Wikipedia link you posted. What's that? It's a set of air stairs coming out the lower rear section of the fuselage! So the BAC 1-11 does indeed have a suitable door. Now go and check how many other airliners have such a door..... Forget it, I'll just tell you now - the Douglas DC-9 and Boeing 727. All of the same 1960's vintage as the BAC 1-11 and no longer in service. In fact, pretty much no modern airliner in service today has such a door. The only doors they have are all located on the side of the aircraft. Good luck successfully jumping out of those.
    The Airbus 300 series have 2 rear cargo doors located on the side, behind the wings. The planes of that series can fly with the engine[s] on one side stopped. So all that needs to be sorted out is how to open those doors from the inside. If that is solved the paratroopers would not risk to bump into anything or to be burned by the jet engine. More about that below.
    Quote Originally Posted by Pielstick View Post
    Which is kind of why if I wanted to do a high altitude parachute drop I'd be using a military transporter with a ramp at the back.

    Not an airliner.
    Everybody would love that. One theory was Ceausescu wanted the BAC 1-11 in spite of the fact it was becoming obsolete precisely because it could easily be converted for military use.

    That being said, let's return to the intercepted phone conversation: the Spetsnaz guy was convinced the Malaysian plane was there because it was dropping spies.

    Was he clueless and paranoid or could certain commercial airliners be slightly modified so that, for example, the rear cargo door of an A320 can be opened from the inside and the passenger compartment doesn't cave in when that happens? In normal times the national airline flies the unmodified planes. But on occasions the special plane is used. The passengers won't notice a thing. The plane itself would have a track record of being used on regular flights, so when the time comes to be used for a special operation, it might enter the airspace above the target without raising any suspicions.

    After all, the name is "Special Operations" or "Covert Operations" for a reason...

    Would a Spetsnaz officer know about a Russian-modified commercial airliner which could be used to drop paratroopers? If so, would his suspicions be grounded in his own experience?
    Quote Originally Posted by Pielstick View Post
    So Dromikaites, your theory just doesn't fly (pun intended). Perhaps I'm not the one who needs to spend some quality time with Google.

    Or might be flying right now above your house and nobody would know about it except the guys who need to know
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  2. #182
    Geronimo2006's Avatar TAR Local Moderator
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  3. #183
    I WUB PUGS's Avatar OOH KILL 'EM
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Condottiere 40K View Post
    Kiev having achieved the (moral) high ground may have decided to transform it's strategic advantage to tactical gains.
    While someone responded to you with laughing smileys, I get what you're saying.

    They're owning the social media and controlling what the major western media outlets are displaying. The narrative is almost completely controlled by Kiev right now but they got out ahead of the story and keep feeding it. This is not so shockingly all based on hot air since Kiev actually doesn't know anything but social media doesn't care and the news is just a rehash of what's happening on twitter anymore.

  4. #184

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Deception being an important aspect of warfare, but the repercussions of actually being exposed would make any regular airline company hesitate before participating.
    Eats, shoots, and leaves.

  5. #185

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Geronimo2006 View Post
    And can you prove it was the government forces that did it? The images on news sites today show rebels in tanks.
    Therein lies the problem. You are brainwashed by the mass media. If you take 5 mins of your time and go and look at the videos you will realize how out of thouch your statement is. Warning if you are 18+, then go on liveleak and search for them. I dont want to link it here. There are many videoes showing the civilians fate in Lugansk, but the ones im thinking of is from 18/07/2014

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  6. #186

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Geronimo2006 View Post
    And can you prove it was the government forces that did it? The images on news sites today show rebels in tanks.
    Are you serious? Why would the separatists want to murder their own families and blow up the cities and towns they grew up in?

  7. #187

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by I WUB PUGS View Post
    No one is denying they had a BUK system. They got it from a Ukrainian base.
    Really?

    I don't know why I've got the impression you have served in the military. I could be wrong of course. But if I am right then do explain how could the terrorists capture a base which has Buk systems. We would be talking about them overrunning at least a regiment, if not a brigade.

    Then it would of course be nice to go beyond "they have captured a base" and give at least the approximate location of that base. Hint: there is none in the area they control or have controlled.

    And lastly there would be interesting to know why Secretary Kerry says they got those Buk launchers from the Russians, that the US has satellite images of the missile being fired and heading towards the airplane, etc.

    Also why would he say the intercepted calls of the terrorists are genuine?

    There are two possibilities:

    1) You trust RT and similar sources over Kerry;

    2) You never heard Kerry's statements.
    Quote Originally Posted by I WUB PUGS View Post
    They've been shooting down planes left and right using SPAAG and MANPADS.
    Any idea where they got them from?

    For sure the SBU and the police didn't have them, nor do the squads manning those border guard posts. And that's all the "bases" the terrorists have managed to capture.

    Now, if they couldn't get them from Ukraine, where else did they get those SPAAG and MANPADS from?
    Quote Originally Posted by I WUB PUGS View Post
    The Ukrainians just last week before the loss of MH17 said the Su-25 they lost was from a Russian fighter incursion. They're either lying or they're paranoid or maybe the Russians are flying over them. Certainly gives them a reason to turn on their SAMs.
    Except Kerry said yesterday that the American satellites have images with the missile being fired, Obama said today that the Ukrainians didn't have SAMs in the area and the intercepted phone calls say the launcher responsible for the downing of the plane was located in Chernukhiv, which is a village occupied by terrorists, at the intersection of two key highways, M03 which connects the area with Russia and M04 which connects it to Lugansk.
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  8. #188
    DarthLazy's Avatar Protector Domesticus
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by GoTW Kubee View Post
    Are you serious? Why would the separatists want to murder their own families and blow up the cities and towns they grew up in?
    Theyre not shelling russia.
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Real imperialism is shown by Western apologists who are defending Ukraine's brutal occupation of Novorossija.
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Sovereignty of Ukraine was recognized by Yeltsin and died with him.

  9. #189

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Condottiere 40K View Post
    Deception being an important aspect of warfare, but the repercussions of actually being exposed would make any regular airline company hesitate before participating.
    That is why I said "national airline". As in owned by the government. Many are in Europe.

    Aeroflot has done that already in 1968. Not parachuting, but landing planes full of Spetsnaz. Was Aeroflot banned from the Western airports after 1968? Nope. But I suspect every time an Aeroflot was landing, the local armed forces were on alert.
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  10. #190

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by DarthLazy View Post
    Theyre not shelling russia.
    Clearly some units and leaders are Russian, but most of the separatists are Eastern Ukrainians.
    Last edited by Darth Red; July 21, 2014 at 03:20 PM. Reason: off topic personal reference

  11. #191
    Geronimo2006's Avatar TAR Local Moderator
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by GoTW Kubee View Post
    Are you serious? Why would the separatists want to murder their own families and blow up the cities and towns they grew up in?
    Except many of the rebels are not from Donbass or even Ukraine. Borodai and Strelkov are from Moscow and are GRU agents. Likewise these Cossacks are veterans of other separatist conflicts and can't keep their noses out of other people's business. So for such people, they don't care who gets killed. But it sure makes good propaganda for RT. Rossiya 24 and the other Goebbels-type channels.

    Other rebels are linked to organised crime and want independence so they can run their enterprises free from law enforcement. Dennis Pushillin runs a pyramid scheme called MMM. Alexander Mozhaev is a Cossack who admits he's fleeing the Russian police.
    Last edited by Geronimo2006; July 21, 2014 at 03:19 PM.
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  12. #192
    Roma_Victrix's Avatar Call me Ishmael
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by I WUB PUGS View Post
    And Ukraine has 9K37 series missiles just like Russia. The whole narrative about a BUK is coming from Kiev. Yet to be confirmed or denied by anyone.
    Well, for starters and in addition to Dromikaites pointing out (more than once now) that Kerry mentioned satellite images of the missile being fired from rebel-controlled territory, it would be good to know all of this first:

    In the astonishing, grim aftermath of the crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, accusations are still flying. While Russia continues to pin the blame on Kiev, most others are becoming increasingly convinced that the plane was shot down by pro-Russian rebels who hold sway in parts of eastern Ukraine, where the plane's debris is still strewn across wheat fields near the town of Torez.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin says the crash may be the fault of an escalation in hostilities against the rebels spurred by the government in Kiev; rebel leaders say they don't have the capabilities to shoot down the plane. But here's what's fueling the speculation.

    The missile

    The U.S. State Department, as well as Secretary of State John Kerry during TV interviews on Sunday, reiterated claims that the passenger airliner was likely to have been brought down by a SA-11 surface-to-air missile. A State Department statement published Saturday pointed to reports of Russia moving in a significant amount of heavy weaponry into eastern Ukraine over the past month, including a convoy of up to "150 vehicles including tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery, and multiple rocket launchers."

    Ukrainian officials and news sites published images and footage allegedly showing the presence of at least one Buk SA-11 in a town near the crash site. The sophistication of the weaponry needed to bring down a plane at the height at which MH17 was flying makes it, Kerry said, "pretty clear that this is a system that was transferred from Russia into the hands of separatists." U.S. officials said Sunday that there was also evidence that the rebels had attempted to move the missile system back to Russia after the MH17 crash.

    The separatists have downed about a dozen Ukrainian planes in recent months. Satellite imagery is said to show a plume of smoke that may have been the trail of the missile launched at MH17. The rebels' stubbornness in initially thwarting full access to the site and their shoddy treatment of the crash scene and the bodies of the victims seem to buttress suspicions that the separatists have cause to tamper with the evidence.

    The intercepts

    Ukrainian security services revealed a number of taped recordings thought to be conversations between pro-Russian rebels after the attack. The Washington Post has not been able to independently verify the authenticity of these recordings, but the State Department memo considered them authentic.

    In one, supposedly between top rebel leader Igor Bezler and a man thought to be a Russian intelligence official, Bezler says flatly that separatists have shot down the plane. Another recording, allegedly of a conversation between two rebel officers with the aliases "Major" and "Greek," goes into details about the circumstances of the attack. One of the rebels expresses certainty that the plane just shot down by a regiment of rebel "Cossacks" was "100 percent a civilian aircraft." He also indicates the discovery of travel documents belonging to an Indonesian college student. There were 12 Indonesian nationals aboard MH17.

    In a third recording, possibly involving Nikolai Kozitsyn, a Cossack commander, the rebels express amazement that the downed craft belonged to Malaysia Airlines. "That means they were carrying spies. They shouldn't be [expletive] flying. There is a war going on," says the voice attributed to Kozitsyn.

    Social media

    Some rebel fighters reported shooting down a plane in the Donetsk region on Thursday, before allegedly deleting the posts when it appeared that the aircraft was a civilian jet carrying nearly 300 people. On a Russian social media page, Igor Strelkov, the acting defense minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, announced the downing of "an An-26 [a military transport plane] near Torez," alongside a video of the "bird" falling, according to the AFP.

    The official Twitter account of the Donetsk People's Republic had earlier announced seizing Buk surface-to-air missile systems from a Ukrainian regiment. That tweet was deleted after the crash of MH17.
    Put two and two together here; figuring it out is not rocket science.

    Theoretically, the Ukrainian military could have been able to shoot down the plane, but why? Not only would the Ukrainian military have knowledge of all civilian airliners in flight, but the rebels don't even have an air force to speak of, so there's nothing for the Ukrainian military to shoot out of the sky. On the other hand, for the past month the rebels have been shooting down several Ukrainian military transport planes and bragging about it. They even bragged about this latest shooting, until it became apparent that it was a civilian airliner. Then they pulled down all their comments from social media. If removing evidence like that is not the act of someone who's obviously guilty, then my name is actually Victrix_Roma, black is white, up is down, short is long, and night is day.

    Of course, you could go the route of introducing the idea that Ukraine shot it down in order to give Putin and his separatist pals some very bad press, but quite frankly that's taking a step into Crazy Town, populated only by the most ardent conspiracy theorists with tinfoil hats at the ready. Since you're arguing for an evidence-based approach, let's not go there unless it somehow becomes apparent the Ukrainian military is at fault. By all accounts thus far, they had no hand in this.

  13. #193
    Pavlik the Rus's Avatar Civitate
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Geronimo2006
    I agree with you they should show the images of captured weapons.
    Strongly disagree. They must show captured russian weapons if they want to be not a liars.
    But for now, they show this:

    Title says that this a exposition of russian weapons (rosijskogo orujija), captured in fights against separatists.
    Old sovet equipment.
    Pavlik of course these are claims by the Ukrainian side but Putin has told so many lies in this conflict it is hard for me to believe anything he says.
    Putin is a polititian. Polititian are liars. Meantime you blame only him. As someone said "He is a son of the , but he is owr son of the " So the problemm that he is not "your's", is not it?
    I have also been followiing his policies since 1999 and took offence at his policies in Chechnya which really turned me again him early on. So yes I am biased against Putin. It's not an anti-Russian thing. It's an anti-Putin but also anti imperialist thing. I was also offended by the poisoning of Viktor Yuschenko which disfigured his face. I'm also annoyed at the anti gay law. Also I am Irish and the British never tried to dictate our foreign policy. In WW2 we were pressured to join the Allies but stayed neutral and despite grumbling, Britain accepted that.
    It's offtop here, but you still can not name correct data of begining of second chechen war and name it's reason. Try another sources without conspiracy theories.
    Why can't Russia let Ukraine go its own way?
    Unfortunatly the same question about Ukraine can be adressed to the EU and US.
    And i am not a geopolitician to answer to this question. I can post undeniable words - economical, military and geopolitical interests. From my mouth they means nothing.

    I guess that all this war will end soon. RF will not go there, without real support from RF all this republics are doomed. They ran out resources.
    When i say about "real support" i mean that noone gave any proofs that RF sending armaments and vehicles there. There are no any proofs - no support except few volountiers/mercenaries from RF.

    BTW, have anyone posted link to the press conference in defence ministry of RF about this tragedy?

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  14. #194
    I WUB PUGS's Avatar OOH KILL 'EM
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Really?

    I don't know why I've got the impression you have served in the military. I could be wrong of course. But if I am right then do explain how could the terrorists capture a base which has Buk systems. We would be talking about them overrunning at least a regiment, if not a brigade.

    Then it would of course be nice to go beyond "they have captured a base" and give at least the approximate location of that base. Hint: there is none in the area they control or have controlled.

    And lastly there would be interesting to know why Secretary Kerry says they got those Buk launchers from the Russians, that the US has satellite images of the missile being fired and heading towards the airplane, etc.
    Umm, Kiev came out on day 1 stating that the Seps had been in possession of a BUK that they got from a base inside their territory. I'm only going off of what Kiev said. Now the news is pushing some "Russians sent a convoy of missiles into Ukraine" but even that isn't confirmed.

    And not really needing to overrun a regiment. Depends on how that air defense was broken down. If its an air defense battalion then it isn't even half the size manpower wise as an infantry battalion. The Florida National Guard around the corner from me growing up had about 30 HMMWVs with Avenger Stinger Systems mounted on them. Not that a Stinger is comparable, but this was an NG battalion that was separated from a set of baseball fields and some apartments by nothing more than a chain link fence and some barbed wire. Didn't get buffed up until post 9-11. Why would there be some impregnable fortress to keep these things safe? Probably just a little air defense unit. Either way........... it isn't me saying this. Kiev said it on day one.

    Any idea where they got them from?

    For sure the SBU and the police didn't have them, nor do the squads manning those border guard posts. And that's all the "bases" the terrorists have managed to capture.

    Now, if they couldn't get them from Ukraine, where else did they get those SPAAG and MANPADS from?
    No and I don't care where they got them from. Probably the Russians but SPAAG and MANPAD are on a whole different level of ease of use compared to a complicated air defense system like an SA-11. There's also been defecting Ukrainian units. They've been bringing down low flying air craft like attack planes. Still don't even know what altitude the latest AN-26 got hit at. Ukrainians being cryptic about it, but they originally tried to blame a Russian fighter jet incursion.

    Except Kerry said yesterday that the American satellites have images with the missile being fired, Obama said today that the Ukrainians didn't have SAMs in the area and the intercepted phone calls say the launcher responsible for the downing of the plane was located in Chernukhiv, which is a village occupied by terrorists, at the intersection of two key highways, M03 which connects the area with Russia and M04 which connects it to Lugansk.
    Kerry didn't definitively say anything. He said they had an image of a plume that could be a missile. This image isn't public. Forgive me if I take pause and wait for actual facts while I don't want to believe the man in charge of the department that nearly send us headlong into a conflict with Syria to be Al Queda's air force.

    Theoretically, the Ukrainian military could have been able to shoot down the plane, but why? Not only would the Ukrainian military have knowledge of all civilian airliners in flight, but the rebels don't even have an air force to speak of, so there's nothing for the Ukrainian military to shoot out of the sky.
    Holy do you know how civilian air space is actually run? They would know there were planes, but they don't even have a halfway decent radar contact on the plane except for last contact that was 250 miles away from where it crashed. ATC isn't directing traffic all day. They aren't staring at scopes moving stuff around. The exact altitude and speed is given by transponders that are only up to date if you have receivers all over the ground which Ukraine does not. You've got detailed air travel knowledge in Western Europe and the US, but most places are blind. Planes don't run into each other because they got a piece of equipment called Traffic Collision Avoidance System or TCAS. The planes talk to one another in air and the TCAS gives instructions on who pulls up and who dives to avoid a crash. Sometimes pilots ignore the instructions and planes collide. The Ukrainians just see a bunch of blips on the radar and they aren't even exact blips because those radars rotate and the further away the object is from the radar, the worse the return is.

    You keep talking about the rebels not having an air force. For the 20th time, the UKRAINIANS SAID THAT THE RUSSIANS FLEW INTO THEIR AIR SPACE AND SHOT DOWN AN AN-26 JUST DAYS BEFORE THIS INCIDENT.
    Last edited by I WUB PUGS; July 21, 2014 at 03:35 PM.

  15. #195
    Geronimo2006's Avatar TAR Local Moderator
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pavlik the Rus
    Unfortunatly the same question about Ukraine can be adressed to the EU and US.
    They aren't the ones who annexed one of Ukraine's provinces.
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  16. #196
    pajomife's Avatar Protector Domesticus
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Russian militarily are showing images of a Ukrainian Su-25 in close approach to Malaysian plane.Coincidences?

  17. #197
    Pavlik the Rus's Avatar Civitate
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    True, like RF. Formally that was not annexation.
    I mean different. EU and US supported anti president riot. Why they was not neutral?

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  18. #198
    Geronimo2006's Avatar TAR Local Moderator
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    The markings on the plane wreckage point to a BUK. Also Russia is spreading smoke and mirrors by claiming there were Ukrainian BUKs in the area. If I were a cynic I would say they are trying to cover all bases in case the investigators decide it was a BUK.

    Pavlik there is no "EU position". The EU is 29 countries and all of them have a veto. They have not been able to agree on tough economic sanctions for the last 4 months. Do you seriously believe Germany and France wanted any of this? Both are deeply opposed to Ukrainian EU and NATO membership because it would mean mass immigration of cheap labour from open borders, and worsened relations with Russia. France is selling warships to Russia. They had no interest in any of this happening last February. The streets decided it. It was spontaneous. Yanukovych was corrupt and was importing authoritarianism from Russia.

    Did some EU states actively encourage Maidan? Yes. These were just the usual suspects in the Baltic states with bad relations with Russia, and the occasional EU institutional figures like Van Rompuy to bask in the approval of a pro-EU demonstration at a time of increased Euroscepticism within the EU. But if you actually believe the EU plotted the overthrow I'm afraid you've been listening to too many Putin speeches.
    Last edited by Geronimo2006; July 21, 2014 at 03:39 PM.
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  19. #199
    Vanoi's Avatar Dux Limitis
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by pajomife View Post
    Russian militarily are showing images of a Ukrainian Su-25 in close approach to Malaysian plane.Coincidences?
    It be odd for Ukraine to be using a ground-attack aircraft to shoot down a plane they knew was in the area and knew as an airliner.
    Last edited by Vanoi; July 21, 2014 at 03:38 PM.
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  20. #200
    I WUB PUGS's Avatar OOH KILL 'EM
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Geronimo2006 View Post
    The markings on the plane wreckage point to a BUK. Also Russia is spreading smoke and mirrors by claiming there were Ukrainian BUKs in the area. If I were a cynic I would say they are trying to cover all bases in case the investigators decide it was a BUK.
    No it doesn't. It shows a single image that could be construed as supporting a theory about the usage of a weapon with a fragmentation warhead. There are many missiles that use fragmentation warheads.

    Its be odd for Ukraine to be using a ground-attack aircraft to shoot down a plane they knew was in the area and knew as an airliner.
    Su-25 doesn't have the ability to attack targets at 33,000 feet. Like can't even get up there. So dumb. Although if the Seps did shoot down the airliner............this could be an excuse.
    Last edited by I WUB PUGS; July 21, 2014 at 03:40 PM.

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