Thread: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

  1. #3421
    mrmouth's Avatar flaxen haired argonaut
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    The US alone has more than enough in Germany to deal with the kind of incursion that we see now. But the idea of NATO, in military terms, was to meet an invasion force, not retake ground of an occupation force. And not in areas with populations that want to pretend they are part of Russia. Not that it cannot be done, but it is infinitely more difficult. Most importantly, it makes a political solution more difficult.

    This is Ukraine's fight. They are perfectly able to do this. Even with Russia's increased spending, they are only a notch above Ukraine in terms of hardware. When you talk about deploying and supplying/maintaining that hardware even Ukrainian soil, it turns that into a handicap. Even in Georgia, Russia had very significant issues with supply.

    And Ukraine hasn't even deployed its newer hardware. They were parading it around in Kiev.

    The troop training and experience aspect is pretty much a wash. Although the Ukrainian military and volunteer forces are now plenty battle-hardened. And yes, they fight. If I were Russia I would be very worried about the blow-back from Russian casualties if you watched those Maidan protesters walk into gunfire, repeatedly. They show no fear. Ukrainians are willing to die to get rid of this corruption.

    And it doesn't stop with kicking Russia out of its politics, and now its country. Those volunteer battalions are going to come back to Kiev and want to clean house of the politicians that were enabling the historic levels of corruption.
    Last edited by mrmouth; August 29, 2014 at 12:03 PM.
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  2. #3422
    Costin_Razvan's Avatar Campidoctor
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Do you know better than the ex-NATO Supreme Commander in the video I linked to above? A House of Commons Committee made similar warnings, saying NATO was "hollowed out".
    The ex-NATO supreme commander is using the opportunity to try and prevent further cuts in defense budgets and to actually increase them. Besides it's irrelevant: France and Britain both have nuclear weapons.

    The Committee of Soldiers Mothers claims in fact as many as 15000 Russian soldiers are serving in Ukraine.
    That's quite ridiculous seeing as Ukraine itself doesn't believe there's that many rebels in all of Ukraine. Radio Free Europe is not a trustworthy source.

    I wouldn't bet the house on NATO coming to your aid in the event of a Russian invasion.
    Romania doesn't really trust the promises of foreign powers. That's why we have the largest military in the region. Consider this: We have a significantly stronger military then Ukraine.

    Poland also has a pretty strong military in it's region. Now of course neither of us would win in a conventional war with Russia...if Russia went all in.

    If Russia tried sending 10.000 soldiers in Poland though without air support and limited artillery support they would be chopped to bits by Polish Leopard 2s and hit hard by Polands Migs and F-16s. Poland has as many fully upgraded MBTs as France/Germany/UK do individually.
    Last edited by Costin_Razvan; August 29, 2014 at 12:32 PM.
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  3. #3423

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by mrmouth View Post
    This is Ukraine's fight. They are perfectly able to do this. Even with Russia's increased spending, they are only a notch above Ukraine in terms of hardware. When you talk about deploying and supplying/maintaining that hardware even Ukrainian soil, it turns that into a handicap. Even in Georgia, Russia had very significant issues with supply.
    The Russian military of 2008 and 2014 are entirely different things. Right now, Russia has the world's 3rd largest defense budget.

    And Ukraine hasn't even deployed its newer hardware. They were parading it around in Kiev.
    It doesn't really have newer hardware. Its T-72s were not maintained, and very few are functioning. They would need parts from Russia to fix them and make them combat ready again, but that is not likely to happen.

    The troop training and experience aspect is pretty much a wash. Although the Ukrainian military and volunteer forces are now plenty battle-hardened. And yes, they fight. If I were Russia I would be very worried about the blow-back from Russian casualties if you watched those Maidan protesters walk into gunfire, repeatedly. They show no fear. Ukrainians are willing to die to get rid of this corruption.
    I wouldn't overestimate their resolve. Sure, there are groups in their military that are fearless, but there are also many groups which have switched sides, deserted, or surrendered. After the offensive against Novoazovsk, the Ukrainian army was routed, and in many cases, squads are refusing to return to the fight. We might see a mass surrender of large groups after the recent counteroffensive. It seems like the DPR has surrounded Ukrainian forces in pockets.

    And it doesn't stop with kicking Russia out of its politics, and now its country. Those volunteer battalions are going to come back to Kiev and want to clean house of the politicians that were enabling the historic levels of corruption.[/QUOTE]

  4. #3424

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Geronimo2006 View Post
    This is for some posters who questioned whether Russia was a threat to NATO.
    ".. there is a number of significant economic powerhouses that spend well less than the agreed upon..."

    *looks innocently to the ceiling and starts whistling" What? Don't you like your new German car? And every time we do rearm people go in cardiac arrest!

    The main issue is that NATO has the resources but as democracies and being a patchwork alliance it really would need a significant threat that gets all countries going over a longer period to react. It's not so adapted to spontaneously react to a threat. There the scaremongering probably hits a mark.

    That said the available capabilities and manpower should in theory suffice to bridge the gap between a military clash and a long war. But indeed that then needs the US-Euro axis because alone Europe would lack capability, arguably because they have been outsourced and pooled with NATO.
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  5. #3425
    Pavlik the Rus's Avatar Civitate
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    kraine crisis: T-72 tank shoots hole in Russian denial
    To be fair - Kontakt-5 is a soviet era ERA () Came to service in 1986. Most modern part of the soviet military was in Ukraine exactly, so there is nothing surprising, that one of the armies in modern ukrainean territory got new tanks. Ukraine send it to reserves and sold many of them, cause they have no industrial base to the T-72 series. Meantime russian successor to the Kontakt-5 is a Relict ERA.
    Also allmost 70 T-72 disappered from Kharkov tank plant, as ukrainean officials said not long time ago. Something like 600 T-72 in ukrainean storages.
    Also RF does not need to send T-72, more "russian" tank, then T-64, cause RF have a lot of T-64 in storages. Highly illogical act, of course if you want to hide your involvement.

    Also "stripes and tanks" Anatolij Sharij, as i mentioned before, ukrainean journalist, who fled Ukraine to the Lithuania. Ran away from the "freedom of speech" and "democrasy". No english version

    He gave his analysis to the material of the "espresso" tv-channel, about destroyed and captured RF tank. It is T-72, it has Kontakt-5 ERA, and it has two white stripes, as other ukrainean vehicles.
    Separatists does not uses white stripes, so ukrainean tv-channel produces another fake.

    Meantime one more trophy with stripes. Msta-S. One of the vehicles, captured in Starobeshevo.


    Reports from the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers that 250 soldiers in Ryazan were forced to sign a contract agreeing to be sent to Ukraine next week and were told if they didn't, it would be signed for them.
    Geronimo, lets read the article.
    Ответственный секретарь Союза комитетов солдатских матерей Валентина Мельникова сообщила РБК, что, по ее информации, 250 призывников из рязанской десантной дивизии принудили подписать контракт с целью отправить их на Украину на следующей неделе.
    ryazanskaja desantnaja divizija - Ryazan's paratroop divizion. Well, here is a problemm. Such division is non exists at all. Closest paratroop divison to Ryazan' is 106th gds VDV division. From Tula. Tul'skaja divizia.
    And later we can read about
    Председатель Комитета солдатских матерей Ставропольского края Людмила Богатенкова рассказала РБК, что ею сформирован еще и большой список из 400 человек: в нем раненые и убитые жители Северо-Кавказского округа. Данные по списку, говорит Богатенкова, ей давали неофициальные источники, назвать которые она не может.
    I'll translate
    Head of soldier's mother сommittee of Stavropol' region Liudmila Bogatenkova told to the RBC, that she has formed even bigger list of 400 dead and wounded people of N.Caucasus (military) district. She got that data from unofficial sources, but she can not tell who are they
    1. So familiar "" We have a proofs, but we will not show it, you must belive!"
    2. And who is that lady?
    The voice from Lithuania. In russian again

    First off all - she have zero linkage to the soldier's mother сommittee of Stavropol' region. She is a head (and probably a single member) of "Mothers of prikum'ja" organisation. Info about her company at 1:43
    ANd most important thing - she convicted as ordinary criminal in 2001 and 2003, crime - fraud.
    If anyone intersted, google court decision at 2:07 (open information in RF), translate it and go ahead, enjoy.
    Another source of such info, comittee from S-Petersburg. Confirmed foreign agent, who got fundind from US "democrasy fund"

    Excelent.
    Sources are - one criminal and cheater and US sponsored organisation. Obviously neutral Yeahh, i'll belive 'em.

    Adar
    Since then we have seen further escalation as we see evidence of the 76th VDV Division in Lugansk such as this:
    Cool evidence Looks like you have not read my PM about this event, wich i send to you.
    I am a lazy man, so i'll repost a part of my letter to you here.

    First of all. Links with story from ukrainean side
    http://inforesist.org/v-rajone-lutug...kumentami-smi/
    http://pressa.today/events/foto-podt...mashiny-bmd-2/
    http://gigamir.net/news/kyiv/pub1020659
    «В районе Лутугино наши захватили БМД-2, бортовой номер 275, из состава 1-й парашютно-десантной роты в/ч 74268, Псковской воздушно-десантной дивизии, комвзвода ст. лейтенант Попов. В машине вся документация: журнал нарядов, вечерней поверки, журнал увольнительных. Российские сухпаи выпуска марта этого года,»-говорится в сообщении.
    In Lutugino area we have captured BMD-2 №275 from 1st paratroop company military unit №74268, Pskov paratroop division. Squad comander senior leutenant Popov. There is all documentaion inside: book of duties, checking book of personal, book of vacations.

    1. So. about 275
    meet the BMD №275 of Pskov division. It is BMD-4. Ukraine does not have 4th generation in their hands, so...

    May 2014


    Other stuff have the same level of truth - leutenant comands the gds major, passport of 20-years old conscript, evidences created with laser printer, antique commander's bag and so on.
    Looks like owners of mass media in Ukraine ordered them to produces a fakes in industrial scales. That's why they have such low quality

    My personal opinion
    I do not know about level of support to the "Novorossia" from RF. Modern information stream is looks like a hurricane, information war if you like such terms. Dumb russophobia forbids the thinking process to the a lot of people, meantime they give no attention to the crimes and other bad deeds of "other" side. And i am talking not about shelling civilians by ukrainean army only. That western support to the civil revolt, aka maidan, disgracefull. Ukraine should decide on it is own! But modern goverment in Kiev denies that they've got civil war, all media machine of the "west" creates image of internatioanl conflict.

    But meantime there people dying - civilians, soldiers, kids, old men... They are not radicals, fashists or something like this, they are people.
    As A. Sharij says in each video - Stop the mouronic war!
    Last edited by Pavlik the Rus; August 29, 2014 at 01:42 PM.

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  6. #3426

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Geronimo2006 View Post
    It borders NATO and the US has responsibilities under Article 5 to defend NATO members.
    If this conflict spills over the UKRAINIAN BORDER into a NATO neighbour country, US should defend that NATO country against Ukraine, or Russia ( the conflict is not in Russia) ?

    What should Russia then do cause the conflict is inside of its neighbour country?
    Also defending the democratic legacy of the victory in the Cold War, for which many Americans died.
    Ah yes, fighters for world democracy.. They should fight for democracy in their own country, it is not that democratic anymore.


    On a global level, Russia is overtly threatening America by violating its air-defence zone in recent weeks, as well as by supporting enemies like Iran (the oil deal) and the planned espionage centre in Cuba.
    I do not see how USA can be threatened by Russia within their own borders, it is the country which spends most in the world on its military.

    Provocations, testing US abilities, that is all, but a threat on US soil it is hardly unlikely.

    So, since Russia supports Iran, which is like thousands of miles from US soil, then US has to support Ukraine which is a neighbour of Russia and a vital historical country for Russian National Security?

    How is Ukraine vital for US National Security?

    They are also implicated in the hacking of US banks this week.
    They allegedly hacked their banks cause of Ukraine?
    American, French, Israeli and British government's ILLEGAL aggression against the Syrian people, without any proof for chemical attacks in Douma, and without waiting for OPCW to conduct their investigation..
    Sons of *******, leave that poor, war torn country in peace.
    If you are a citizen of one of these countries, then DO NOT ask any help from me on these forums, since, in protest against this aggression by your governments, I do not provide assistance/help anymore.
    Let Syria be finally in peace.

    A video of false chemical attack in Douma, Syria, which led to Western illegal attacks.

  7. #3427
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Russia has the world's 3rd largest defense budget.
    Which is only maybe half of what France, Germany, Italy and the UK spend let alone all the rest of NATO and Finland and Sweden - not mention all the fairly solid friends the US has in the Pacific. And what maybe 5% percent or so of what the US spends? And I'm am Putin would sleep easy stripping all his troops away from China's boarder... China always seems to able to find an old map with what they want as (or to be) China I bet they find one with lots of Russia on it.
    Last edited by conon394; August 29, 2014 at 04:02 PM.
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  8. #3428
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Civilians with 5 days training have until recently been winning against Russia, who has had to pour huge numbers of Russian troops in to shore them up. I think they would go far less well against the real troops of NATO.
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  9. #3429
    Salvatorel's Avatar Senator
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pavlik the Rus View Post

    Also "stripes and tanks" Anatolij Sharij, as i mentioned before, ukrainean journalist, who fled Ukraine to the Lithuania. Ran away from the "freedom of speech" and "democrasy". No english version

    He gave his analysis to the material of the "espresso" tv-channel, about destroyed and captured RF tank. It is T-72, it has Kontakt-5 ERA, and it has two white stripes, as other ukrainean vehicles.
    Separatists does not uses white stripes, so ukrainean tv-channel produces another fake.
    Well, for Russian tanks,white stripes can be explained easily - goal of those who operate them isn't to camouflage them as vehicles belonging to the separatists,but to cover their numbers that generally show to which armed unit they belong.



    Geronimo, lets read the article.

    ryazanskaja desantnaja divizija - Ryazan's paratroop divizion. Well, here is a problemm. Such division is non exists at all. Closest paratroop divison to Ryazan' is 106th gds VDV division. From Tula. Tul'skaja divizia.
    And later we can read about

    I'll translate

    1. So familiar "" We have a proofs, but we will not show it, you must belive!"
    2. And who is that lady?
    The voice from Lithuania. In russian again

    First off all - she have zero linkage to the soldier's mother сommittee of Stavropol' region. She is a head (and probably a single member) of "Mothers of prikum'ja" organisation. Info about her company at 1:43
    ANd most important thing - she convicted as ordinary criminal in 2001 and 2003, crime - fraud.
    If anyone intersted, google court decision at 2:07 (open information in RF), translate it and go ahead, enjoy.
    Another source of such info, comittee from S-Petersburg. Confirmed foreign agent, who got fundind from US "democrasy fund"


    Excelent.
    Sources are - one criminal and cheater and US sponsored organisation. Obviously neutral Yeahh, i'll belive 'em.

    Adar
    It makes wonder why is that every source that isn't Pro-Russian suddenly becomes "fake","corrupt","irreliable" etc and at the same time Youtube video from some Russian/Ukrainian dude supposedly living in Lithuania and speaking Russian with accent one can heard in Moscow and on Russian TV,but only very rarely in Ukraine(a good example of how Eastern Ukrainian dialect of Russian sounds is... well,Brezhnev) is voilla - 100% credible and true.

    Other stuff have the same level of truth - leutenant comands the gds major, passport of 20-years old conscript, evidences created with laser printer, antique commander's bag and so on.
    Looks like owners of mass media in Ukraine ordered them to produces a fakes in industrial scales. That's why they have such low quality
    But then we have the fact that Nikolay Krigin really did serve in the unit specified as did others mentioned in the list and several of them,for example Suprun or Kichatkin are confirmed dead... nobody buries people who are alive and nobody posts "We remember and mourn you" type messages using an acc of a person who is alive,here's the proof
    http://vk.com/id147660861 Ukrainian fake,right? Or SBU is so smart that specially created this account years ago to do this exactly now? If this were a real fake then Russian TV would be first to show all these paratroopers on the live TV,like they did about that FSB general whose passport was stolen in Syria and rebels claimed that they killed him. But so far we have seen no such thing...

    My personal opinion
    I do not know about level of support to the "Novorossia" from RF. Modern information stream is looks like a hurricane, information war if you like such terms. Dumb russophobia forbids the thinking process to the a lot of people, meantime they give no attention to the crimes and other bad deeds of "other" side. And i am talking not about shelling civilians by ukrainean army only. That western support to the civil revolt, aka maidan, disgracefull. Ukraine should decide on it is own! But modern goverment in Kiev denies that they've got civil war, all media machine of the "west" creates image of internatioanl conflict.

    But meantime there people dying - civilians, soldiers, kids, old men... They are not radicals, fashists or something like this, they are people.
    As A. Sharij says in each video - Stop the mouronic war!
    If an important part of one of the warring sides consists of "volunteers" and active/reserve/on leave military personnel from a country which has interests in this particular country then it isn't a civil war but either a proxy war or a plain * invasion. No matter how your average Bydlo oriented TV says.
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  10. #3430
    Carach's Avatar Dux Limitis
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by snuggans View Post
    lol why spend anything at all when you've got Palpatine in Moscow siccing the Berkut on a rally that was still yet peaceful. that'll buy you more supporters and public opinion than money.
    according to these putin-cultists the only people that want to overthrow russian-friendly/lackey governments are those evil nazis funded by american CIA. I mean, what other possible explanation could there be?!

    Quote Originally Posted by Salvatorel View Post

    It makes wonder why is that every source that isn't Pro-Russian suddenly becomes "fake","corrupt","irreliable" etc and at the same time Youtube video from some Russian/Ukrainian dude supposedly living in Lithuania and speaking Russian with accent one can heard in Moscow and on Russian TV,but only very rarely in Ukraine(a good example of how Eastern Ukrainian dialect of Russian sounds is... well,Brezhnev) is voilla - 100% credible and true.
    i asked a similar question of a random guy i met in the pub a few months back. he was a 9/11 truther and actually carried around a little book with youtube links written down, told me to look at them as if that answered everything. 9/11 was an inside job!

    I facepalmed somewhat.

    But at least u could have a more reasonable conversation with him, a crazy conspiracy nut, than u can with these members of the Putin-personality cult.
    Last edited by Carach; August 29, 2014 at 05:00 PM.

  11. #3431
    Papay's Avatar Protector Domesticus
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Simon Cashmere View Post
    Civilians with 5 days training have until recently been winning against Russia, who has had to pour huge numbers of Russian troops in to shore them up. I think they would go far less well against the real troops of NATO.
    Civilians? Lol. Its the Ukraine army

  12. #3432
    Papay's Avatar Protector Domesticus
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    http://liveuamap.com/e/2014/30-augus...3905966&zoom=8

    According to this pro-Kiev website Donbass battalion is completely destroyed. More units will follow. The question is: What next?

  13. #3433

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Putin can't win in Ukraine if he provokes the Western nations into united and determined front. But the only way to win militarily in Ukraine is to do the very things that would provoke the western nations to act in this way.

    This should have been seen from the beginning, and the short military strategy should have been dumped in favor of a long term strategy to claw back Kiev through political corruption like was done after the orange revolution.

    Now Kiev's eventual entry into NATO and the EU is inevitable.

  14. #3434

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    I can see how Russophobes on this board have a hard time believing that all parties involved spin propaganda. There is no way Ukraine could ever lie. Right? Right???? RIGHT?????

  15. #3435

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by mrmouth View Post

    This is Ukraine's fight. They are perfectly able to do this. Even with Russia's increased spending, they are only a notch above Ukraine in terms of hardware. When you talk about deploying and supplying/maintaining that hardware even Ukrainian soil, it turns that into a handicap. Even in Georgia, Russia had very significant issues with supply.
    I guess you've haven't seen this picture.



    The Ukrainian army is poorly equipped, fed and poorly motivated. The Ukrainian government has a bad habit of not paying their in some cases leaving the families they were pulled away from destitute. The mass of their soldiers simply aren't motivated to fight for control of a region where they are not welcome.
    Proculus: Divine Caesar, PLEASE! What have I done? Why am I here?
    Caligula: Treason!
    Proculus: Treason? I have always been loyal to you!
    Caligula: [laughs insanely] That IS your treason! You're an honest man, Proculus, which means a bad Roman! Therefore, you are a traitor! Logical, hmm? Ha, ha, ha!

  16. #3436
    Geronimo2006's Avatar TAR Local Moderator
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Pavlik being declared a "foreign agent" is standard practice for anyone Putin doesn't like. He didn't think she was one when he appointed its St.Petersburg leader Elena Polyakova to his Human Rights Commission. He only feels that way now because she had the temerity to expose the forcible signing of contracts to send Russian soldiers to Ukraine (being told if they didn't sign the officers would for them) and the secret burials. She correctly pointed out this is also what happened in Afghanistan and Chechnya. They are even going after the Levada Centre (Russia's last independent polling company) because it receives 3% of its funding from the EU. Whereas Putin claims the law is based on the US law, in fact the US law only applies to funding by governments, and does not allow the government to close NGOs down for that reason alone.

    Wulfgar conventionally Ukraine cannot win but by a guerilla war it can gradually wear down the Russian people's belief it is worth it. It's not like when they were defending their country from the Nazis (though Putin lies that this is so). When we were fighting the British in 1919-21, we were also no match conventionally for them. It was a guerilla war and public horror at their reprisals against civilians e.g. burning of Cork by the Black and Tans, that made them change course. Also Russian paranoia will help Ukraine by causing Russia to continue diverting resources to violating the airspace of its other neighbours such as Finland last week.
    Last edited by Geronimo2006; August 29, 2014 at 07:58 PM.
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  17. #3437

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Geronimo2006 View Post

    Wulfgar conventionally Ukraine cannot win but by a guerilla war it can gradually wear down the Russian people's belief it is worth it. It's not like when they were defending their country from the Nazis (though Putin lies that this is so). When we were fighting the British in 1919-21, we were also no match conventionally for them. It was a guerilla war and public horror at their reprisals against civilians e.g. burning of Cork by the Black and Tans, that made them change course. Also Russian paranoia will help Ukraine by causing Russia to continue diverting resources to violating the airspace of its other neighbours such as Finland last week.
    What guerrilla war? To get a guerrilla war Putin would have invade regions were he doesn't have domestic acquiescence. In previous conflicts he's avoided them accept for Chechnya.

    The only one fighting against Guerrillas at the moment is the Ukraine itself.

    This is the bit you ignore, you skirt around it and try to get away from it. Putin is going after regions were Russia can expect to get domestic support. So basically it is fighting as a liberator more than anything else. If he succeeds in annexing E. Ukraine, he won't be facing a Guerrilla war. W. Ukraine might mean a guerrilla war, but he is unlikely to try and annex a region where he faces strong domestic opposition.

    He's grabbing E. Ukraine because it is an important asset to Russia that he cannot allow to fall to the plans of Russia's enemies.
    Proculus: Divine Caesar, PLEASE! What have I done? Why am I here?
    Caligula: Treason!
    Proculus: Treason? I have always been loyal to you!
    Caligula: [laughs insanely] That IS your treason! You're an honest man, Proculus, which means a bad Roman! Therefore, you are a traitor! Logical, hmm? Ha, ha, ha!

  18. #3438
    Praefectus
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Papay View Post
    Civilians? Lol. Its the Ukraine army
    I am not sure you are really understanding how this works. The original Ukrainian army was very run down, and it seemed not too interested in fighting.

    The Ukrainian army had about 6000 troops when this started. The majority of the units are new conscripts. They receive between 5-14 days training before they are sent to the front. 75% of those fighting have had no military experience before, while some had done their compulsory military training. And the reason its so common to see old guys fighting is that they are the last people those who fought in Afghanistan with actual combat experience. In addition, Ukraine has 100,000 police, many of whom have light weapons training, and units of police and border guards are also fighting at the front.

    So to say this is the Ukraine Army - like say, the UK or US Army is not accurate. This is mostly a civilian force - although - civilian forces have done well before in other wars. But if you see that this mostly civilian force is going quite well, up until now, you have to wonder how a professional NATO would go against Russia.

    My information tells me - that like I said about Mariupol, that it is completely encircled now - which was what I predicted a few days ago. I hope that is wrong. The maps are not showing what I am hearing, that there is a salient that goes down to Yalta (not in Crimea Adar) past Mariupol and to near Berdyansk so that Mariupol is cut off.

    I guess you've haven't seen this picture.
    I'm sure the Viet Cong had a similar picture with the US. Obviously if Russia declares war on Ukraine, and sends everyone they will have to win. However, is Russia prepared to spend the amount of lives, money, and trouble that fighting a properly equipped Ukraine will cost. If NATO actually gives Ukraine proper weapons, the Ukrainians will make a hell of a nuisance of themselves. No one in Ukraine wants NATO troops to come fight, and actually would feel bad if anyone else fought their war and got hurt or killed. They just want equipment. As bizarre as that sounds.
    Last edited by Simon Cashmere; August 29, 2014 at 08:22 PM.
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  19. #3439
    Geronimo2006's Avatar TAR Local Moderator
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Nazi-style rhetoric from Putin crony Alexander Dugin (Putin senior advisor) who has called for "genocide" of the "race of bastards" in Ukraine.

    Shamefully, he is due to travel to Budapest for a Far Right conference on 3rd October. Why hasn't he been added to the sanctions list? Is Orban defending him?

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  20. #3440
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    There are people in Ukraine in the leadership that I disagree with, the same as with every country. But saying that you have a higher loyalty to Putin, who is basically a thug and a gangster that has a country to play with - makes no sense, it is illogical. How is it in the interests of the Russian people to be hated by everyone for invading Ukraine? With Russia often having the high moral ground or trying and talking about Western wars of aggression, when it starts a war of aggression? And for Russia to become like the rogue state North Korea that just lies all the time, so nobody believes what they say anymore. This is Russia being the worst of the Soviet Union, and it has not done anything like this really since the invasion of Czechoslavakia or Hungary. Those days should be long long gone now, Gorbachev would never do this.

    He's grabbing E. Ukraine because it is an important asset to Russia that he cannot allow to fall to the plans of Russia's enemies.
    He's grabbing E-UKraine and Crimea, as a get square against Ukraine having the audacity to throw out his goons that were plundering the Ukrainian nation blind and sending the money back to Moscow. Putin doing this is just what mafia bosses do to shopkeepers who fail to pay protection money -Nice country Ukraine, shame if anything were to happen to it...and the Russian army are this mafia boss's enforcers. It has nothing to do with glory of Russia or anything else. If Russia left Ukraine alone for a while and built up genuine diplomatic ties, they'd probably have a good friend in Ukraine. But instead they have to go and rig elections, take over the government and steal everything. Instead of trying to make genuine ties and friendship with Ukraine.

    Ukraine also has reserves in Slavyansk, and Kiev. Right now, it just needs to move everyone up and try and close the salient so Mariupol does not get taken. Mariupol has a lot of Ukrainian units in it, and it would be a tragedy if they were all forced to surrender, in fact, I think the war would be lost at that point.
    Last edited by Simon Cashmere; August 29, 2014 at 09:03 PM.
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