Thread: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

  1. #6821

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    why is it that farfetched to believe Russian tourists would be carrying passports? we saw outdated GRU insignias on tourist uniforms, and in Crimea a serial number was picked off a soldier's vest and traced to a unit. seriously, at times it feels like the tourists are not trying that hard to hide their identity themselves, the only people still adamantly refusing it are the whitewashers on here tuned to RT. even russian journalists have confirmed Igor Strelkov's GRU background
    Last edited by snuggans; February 08, 2015 at 07:36 AM.

  2. #6822

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stavroforos View Post
    As far as the Proshenko holding Russian passports...honestly...were these "covert" Russians really stupid enough to bring their passports? Hell, it makes the Russian case stronger since there's no way they'd have a covert force with Russian passports, even though we all know Russia is helping on the ground.
    We are not talking about special forces or spies here, but "volunteers" from Russia. Having your passport with you might be the only thing giving you a modicum of protection if things go wrong because proving that you are the citizen of some country usually entails said country gets involved, aka a lot of countries do attach special privileges to citizenship in what they or their embassies will do to help them (e.g. if you get accused of a crime in another country). That might be a false hope for those Russians getting sent there but I don't think most of them really get asked about their personal opinion on the matter.

    I would say getting accused of being an illegal combatant is serious enough to not get categorized as "stateless".
    "Sebaceans once had a god called Djancaz-Bru. Six worlds prayed to her. They built her temples, conquered planets. And yet one day she rose up and destroyed all six worlds. And when the last warrior was dying, he said, 'We gave you everything, why did you destroy us?' And she looked down upon him and she whispered, 'Because I can.' "
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  3. #6823

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Marcus Aemilius Lepidus View Post
    As someone who didn't serve in any army. Is it common to take your passports with you? That's a question to everyone who served in any army. I thought that you get some military ID's when you walk around as a soldier.
    We had our passports with us back when I deployed in 2010. Along with our "dogtag" and a military id-card. But I kinda agree with Stav on this one. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians were that stupid.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chukada1 View Post
    Soviet "heroics" during ww2.

    Everybody can see which bias you hold. [Insert mountain of BS here]
    You, above all else here, should really keep quiet with the bias accusations. I've already explained it, and I see no reason whatsoever to demote myself to your level.

    What we need is an understanding of Russia, its actions, and its people that transcends the shallow analysis we so often see. We need to do so in a way that helps us more effectively engage with Russia in the international arena, without abjuring our responsibility to take a harder line when it comes to maintaining peace and stability within Europe.
    Litteral translation: We need to bend over for Putin.
    Last edited by SPECTREtm; February 08, 2015 at 08:50 AM.

  4. #6824
    Adar's Avatar Just doing it
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    I would love to see certain members in court and making insightful arguments such as "-If I am the murderer, who would I leave my fingerprints on the knife used to murder the victim?".

    Given that platforms such as Pantsir-S1 and T-72B3s show up and are tracked and around Donetsk I don't really think that there is much of an excuse that the Putinists can come up with. Calling the Russian soldiers "covert" may have worked in July but since then this whole operation really isn't very covert and now we even have a tracking service for it:

    https://www.bellingcat.com/resources...acking-launch/
    Last edited by Adar; February 08, 2015 at 10:57 AM.

  5. #6825
    YuriVII's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Not to mention that statement is factually incorrect. He is citing some popular "Greatest Russian" Internet contest or poll that happened a few years back and the winner was Alexander Nevsky followed by Prime Minister Stolypin.

  6. #6826

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by SPECTREtm View Post
    We had our passports with us back when I deployed in 2010. Along with our "dogtag" and a military id-card. But I kinda agree with Stav on this one. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians were that stupid.



    You, above all else here, should really keep quiet with the bias accusations. I've already explained it, and I see no reason whatsoever to demote myself to your level.



    Litteral translation: We need to bend over for Putin.
    I don't see how it is relevant to diminish the personal sacrifice of tens of millions of men and women from the Soviet republics, just to suit your argument about the war in Ukraine, as if it accomplishes anything but to stick up your nose at history. When did you learn about the second world war, was it before the year 2000? It's also nice to see you belittling the personal sacrifices of Ukrainian solders in the Soviet Union. How diplomatic.

    People need to get real. You don't have to agree what is important for Russia, but if you can't beat them in the region, you have to at least recognize what is important to Russia if you don't what to destabilize the region. West cannot win over Ukraine. Ukraine is bankrupt. So unless you've got a Marshall plan. Give up.
    Last edited by Chukada1; February 08, 2015 at 12:56 PM.

  7. #6827
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    West cannot win over Ukraine? Russia will go bankrupt even if it "wins" in Ukraine. The sanctions will only get worse, and oil ins't going to recover anytime soon. Putin wins in Ukraine, but his country's economy collapses anyways. Thats a great "win."
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  8. #6828
    Aanker's Avatar Concordant
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Again, Russia could "win" all the way to Berlin if it wants, its fate is still sealed for the coming decades.

    Quote Originally Posted by Adar View Post
    Russia have managed to weaponize the loneliest and saddest people on the internet by providing them with (sometimes barechested) father figures whom they can adhere to in order to justify their hatred for the current establishment and the society that rejects them.

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  9. #6829

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Aanker View Post
    Again, Russia could "win" all the way to Berlin if it wants, its fate is still sealed for the coming decades.
    I truely doubt Russia's capabilities to launch such a major operation, and it's only going to get worse with NATO's defenses are getting beefed up in Eastern Europe, and the rising challenges it faces with a military reform that becomes increasingly impossible to implement.

  10. #6830

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chukada1 View Post
    I don't see how it is relevant to diminish the personal sacrifice of tens of millions of men and women from the Soviet republics, just to suit your argument about the war in Ukraine, as if it accomplishes anything but to stick up your nose at history. When did you learn about the second world war, was it before the year 2000? It's also nice to see you belittling the personal sacrifices of Ukrainian solders in the Soviet Union. How diplomatic.

    People need to get real. You don't have to agree what is important for Russia, but if you can't beat them in the region, you have to at least recognize what is important to Russia if you don't what to destabilize the region. West cannot win over Ukraine. Ukraine is bankrupt. So unless you've got a Marshall plan. Give up.
    The only reason the west might not be able to beat Russia about Ukraine is because it is pulling its punches and knowing that the next step of escalation means military escalation really and that is a scary proposition. None wants to die because of Ukraine, that is at least what Putin is praying for because what is going on right now is something that easily boils over. To repeat myself concerning Crimea: Back in the glorious 19th century Putin wants us to go back to Russia would have seen a coalition forming and probably several interventions launching by now with none batting an eye. We would have our next Great War because of this stuff already. All that is holding everyone back is knowing that this is what happened in the past and how bloody it got in no time. In the good ol' times no Great Power would have stood at the sidelines of such crisis without throwing its military might behind the "victim" to spoil it for the other guy.

    Currently there is another rift forming between Europe and the US. Interestingly Merkel insinuated to rather play the long game aka essentially create a new Cold War with the Iron Curtain running through Eastern Ukraine rather than risk further escalation. As an East German she might consider that the path Russia and those territories are on will prove unsustainable over time anyway. The US is currently pushing towards putting a foot down by supporting Ukraine militarily. I think it will get reallyscary for Putin if the West closes that rift and will do both. The really, really scary scenario for Putin is that this rift is already closed and Merkel's open hand in this last round of diplomatic negotiations might be the last offer of a deal before the US plays the bad guy and does send military aid to Ukraine.

    In a way this division of labor was there from the start because Europe has local interests in keeping talks open while the US does not but even despite this disagreement both are still closer to each other than Putin.
    Last edited by Mangalore; February 09, 2015 at 03:22 AM. Reason: wording
    "Sebaceans once had a god called Djancaz-Bru. Six worlds prayed to her. They built her temples, conquered planets. And yet one day she rose up and destroyed all six worlds. And when the last warrior was dying, he said, 'We gave you everything, why did you destroy us?' And she looked down upon him and she whispered, 'Because I can.' "
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  11. #6831

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    After 2 weeks the terrorist offensive has fizzled out. What happened?

    1) The losses were much higher than expected. Both in materiel (rather easy to replace as long as Putin is willing to foot the bill) and in people (quite difficult - even the convicts prefer to do time in a Russian prison instead of volunteering for an almost certain death);

    2) Ammunition got depleted faster than Putin's "humanitarian convoys" could supply it. As I have said sometimes in October, it was highly likely the Ukrainians would welcome a winter war because their supply lines are shorter and their logistics better. I have also said several times that the mighty Russian army has crappy logistics. The combination of longer supply lines and crappy logistics resulted in the terrorists running out of ammo.

    Last Thursday the 20th+ "humanitarian convoy" violated the Ukrainian border. While it might solve the ammo supply problem, it's not clear how the terrorists would solve the manpower issue.

    The announcement of raising a 100,000 strong army was quite likely made by the terrorist leaders in order to mask a massive influx of Russian "volunteers". But somehow it seems that massive influx failed to materialize.

    Merkel and Hollande returned from Moscow empty-handed and quite pissed off. When Putin thinks he's winning, he pretends to be very cooperative. He was inviting the OSCE observes to Crimea while he was invading it, he was signing the Geneva Agreement while his Spetsnaz was occupying Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Donetsk and Horlivka, he was encouraging the Minsk ceasefire talks after pushing back the Ukrainian army.

    Contrary to his customary behavior when he holds the upper hand, it seems he has been particularly stubborn during the meeting with the European leaders. That is the customary Russian behavior when their position is weak - the weaker the position, the more aggressive the posturing.

    It will be therefore very interesting to watch his next moves: will he force a last massive attack on Debaltsevo, maybe openly sending the Russian regulars like he did in August?

    Will his entourage help him have a fatal accident?
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  12. #6832
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    After 2 weeks the terrorist offensive has fizzled out. What happened?
    Fizzled out because they aren't mad to attack an urban center like that directly, who exactly expected the pocket to fall in a few days is ridiculous. Oh the Ukrainian propaganda continues it's roll.
    "It's bizarre though. Donald Trump, an ageing, orange skinned reality TV star with a history of selling steaks and conning people, a trophy wife and one of the most fragile egos I've seen pretty much just destroyed the head of the interventionist faction in the US State apparatus, Victoria Nuland, after literally becoming President of the United states. We must live in one of the more interesting timelines."

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  13. #6833
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Costin_Razvan View Post
    Fizzled out because they aren't mad to attack an urban center like that directly, who exactly expected the pocket to fall in a few days is ridiculous. Oh the Ukrainian propaganda continues it's roll.
    Is there even a point in arguing with people who clearly just want to go on threads like these to spout propaganda? It's clear that people have no intention of being objective when they throw around words like "terrorists" or when the Russophiles make it seem as though the main enemy is Nazis and the Azov battalion.

  14. #6834

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lb1TAMTZv8

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/sta...57876065468416
    "Yarosh: Ukr artillery struck a site w militants' Grads. Destroyed 20 Grads, 30veh w ammo, 200 terrorists. Explosion led to panic in #Donetsk"

    Hard to say if that is real, other there at twitter say it was gas plant. I guess better wait to see what reports tell tomorrow in daylight. But damn, that was one big explosion.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5JmZ4-F3sQ
    Last edited by Ziltoid; February 08, 2015 at 07:53 PM.

  15. #6835
    Derpy Hooves's Avatar Bombs for Muffins
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Seriously, why haven't the separatists been able to close the pocket? When that pocket first emerged rceryone was saying how easy it will be to close the pocket. But it has yet to happen. The separatists must be as bad as the Ukrainian military



  16. #6836

    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Char Aznable View Post
    Seriously, why haven't the separatists been able to close the pocket? When that pocket first emerged rceryone was saying how easy it will be to close the pocket. But it has yet to happen. The separatists must be as bad as the Ukrainian military
    Must be.

    Wonder if Ukraine is even aiming. Or are they just launching rockets into Donetsk at this point at random.

  17. #6837
    Derpy Hooves's Avatar Bombs for Muffins
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chukada1 View Post
    Must be.

    Wonder if Ukraine is even aiming. Or are they just launching rockets into Donetsk at this point at random.
    ​I'm talking about the Debaltseve pocket, not Donetsk



  18. #6838
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Blizzard has cut off online gaming to Crimea - so no more World of Warcraft. One would think that would be extended to Russia proper and not just Crimea. It's an interesting question - if sanctions prohibit you from delivering a service to the prohibited area, does this include providing a gaming platform to people in that area? I'd say to be on the safe side the answer is yes, and what you'd do is ask the State Department for a ruling about it:
    A number of Crimean gamers are complaining that they have been blocked from accessing the online communities attached to “massively multiplayer” titles such as Diablo and World of Warcraft. Some are attributing the service blackout to the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/world...ea-2015-2?IR=T

    Still - there are some non-US online games. Take that Russia, you lose your World of Warcraft accounts. The neckbeards will riot in the street and overthrow the tyrant Putin.

    We are not talking about special forces or spies here, but "volunteers" from Russia.
    Not going to be too many of those. Plenty of 'volunteers' who are from regular Russian military units who are told, this is where you are going, and reports that, some refused to go. I posted here an article about it, and this one sergeant saying that 'nobody' wants to go there as a volunteer. Why would you. While you are getting paid more than the Ukrainians are, what are you fighting for. The Ukrainians are not invading Russia. They are not plotting against Russia. They just had the bad manners to want to get rid of Putin's massive mafia protection racket that had been robbing every private business and state enterprise in Ukraine BLIND for decades - and determine things for themselves.

    And likely every good mafia boss, Putin said, they won't pay? They die. And this mafia boss has a country at his disposal to ensure the protection money keeps getting paid, and, his cronies can continue to steal everything not nailed down in Ukraine whilst the majority of people live in poverty. Of course they are going to fight, and for a small country with a standing army that has been deliberately weakened by Russia for decades, they've done very well.

    Ukraine is Putin's white whale - he will keep chasing it until his ship is smashed to pieces and his crew are all dead.
    Last edited by Simon Cashmere; February 09, 2015 at 07:40 AM.
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  19. #6839
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mangalore View Post
    The only reason the west might not be able to beat Russia about Ukraine is because it is pulling its punches and knowing that the next step of escalation means military escalation really and that is a scary proposition. None wants to die because of Ukraine, that is at least what Putin is praying for because what is going on right now is something that easily boils over. To repeat myself concerning Crimea: Back in the glorious 19th century Putin wants us to go back to Russia would have seen a coalition forming and probably several interventions launching by now with none batting an eye. We would have our next Great War because of this stuff already. All that is holding everyone back is knowing that this is what happened in the past and how bloody it got in no time. In the good ol' times no Great Power would have stood at the sidelines of such crisis without throwing its military might behind the "victim" to spoil it for the other guy.

    Currently there is another rift forming between Europe and the US. Interestingly Merkel insinuated to rather play the long game aka essentially create a new Cold War with the Iron Curtain running through Eastern Ukraine rather than risk further escalation. As an East German she might consider that the path Russia and those territories are on will prove unsustainable over time anyway. The US is currently pushing towards putting a foot down by supporting Ukraine militarily. I think it will get really scary for Putin if the West closes that rift and will do both. The really scary scenario for Putin is that this rift is already closed and Merkel's open hand in this last round of diplomatic negotiations might be the last offer of a deal before the US plays the bad guy and does send military aid to Ukraine.

    In a way this division of labor was there from the start because Europe has local interests in keeping talks open while the US does not while both are still closer to each other than Putin.
    I find that an incredibly intersting perspective. I am going to argue that Merkel will have, one way or the other, to fall behind the US line soon. What else would you expect or demand from a German politician but aiming to use all diplomatic tools at hand before going martial (that is not even meant negatively), and even if it's only delivering weapons. Given the unsustainable notion you bring up here, somebody else made a nice point in the thread already, although I cannot seem to find it, that Ukraine military tactic could be to impose maximum cost and attrition to the Russian military. That could nicely fit the tactic you accredit to Merkel here. Combine that with eventual weapon deliveries and you've got a trap snapping.


    Quote Originally Posted by Simon Cashmere View Post
    Blizzard has cut off online gaming to Crimea - so no more World of Warcraft. One would think that would be extended to Russia proper and not just Crimea. It's an interesting question - if sanctions prohibit you from delivering a service to the prohibited area, does this include providing a gaming platform to people in that area? I'd say to be on the safe side the answer is yes, and what you'd do is ask the State Department for a ruling about it:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/world...ea-2015-2?IR=T
    Just wait until Russia shuts down our World of Tanks accounts.

  20. #6840
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    Default Re: Ukraine and Russia Developments. Version 2.

    Just wait until Russia shuts down our World of Tanks accounts.
    The Kremlin would probably be able to do that, although the company that runs World of Tanks is Cypriot/Belorussian. It would however be a simple matter for Putin to call his friends in Minsk and say, block EU and US Ip addresses, or even just the US. Still - that would cost them, millions. Will the Kremlin pay the difference? I doubt it. I don't think they are going to have the money to spare.

    I heard someone from OPEC saying the price of oil needed to stay low for the next 12 months. That is going to really hurt.
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