What if Ming China Continued Its Imperial Projection into the Indian Ocean?

[Roma_Victrix]

I read a great deal about this some time ago, in terms of 'who would win' in large scale naval battles, the Ming fleets would. Hands down. No question.

At this period of time the only 'European' fleet large enough to pose a threat were the Venetians, but they obviously were not going to venture into the Indian Ocean.

Take for example this Ming treasure ship compared to one of the ships columbus used to sail the ocean blue around the same time;



I think its pretty easy to see who the victor would be. Fair enough the Chinese did not have many of those ships, but they had many more smaller warships and merchant ships that were a great deal larger than comparable European ships. To my knowledge Chinese firearms and cannon were not that much different to their European counterparts and unless a European power sailed a vast armada around the horn of Africa into the Indian Ocean, they would always be outnumbered by the Chinese in a large pitched battle (assuming of course that the ming presence in the Indian Ocean was maintained).

Trade did flourish in this time period, it wasnt just symbolic tributes sent back to China. A great deal of trade did occur and with more time this could have increased exponentially, especially if trade could have been established with the Europeans. The Indian ocean could have become a Chinese controlled transit hub for trade between Europe/Africa and China/Japan/South-East Asia.

I dont think its inconceivable to imagine the Ming fleets establishing secure naval ports along the Indian Ocean as the Europeans would later do to secure their supply routes and have dry-docks for supply and maintenance of the fleets.

Also here's a discussion on another site regarding a similar topic: the Spanish Armada Vs the Zheng He treasure fleet.

http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forum...ad.php?t=91738

For that matter, what Western ships if any in antiquity or medieval times compared to the size of these Treasure Ships of Zheng He? The Hellenistic pleasure barges of the Ptolemies, Seleucids, Attalids, and Antigonids? The subsequent Roman pleasure barges of Caligula and Nero, like the Lake Nemi Ships?



Mind you, these weren't meant for fleet action, but to act as huge floating palaces for the Hellenistic kings and then the Roman emperors. In that case, how did a quinquereme, or the much larger purported polyremes, fair in size compared to the later galleons of the Spanish Armada?

[hellheaven1987]

Trade did flourish in this time period, it wasnt just symbolic tributes sent back to China. A great deal of trade did occur and with more time this could have increased exponentially, especially if trade could have been established with the Europeans. The Indian ocean could have become a Chinese controlled transit hub for trade between Europe/Africa and China/Japan/South-East Asia.

I never see a source suggesting how "flourish" the trade between China and SEA was at this period, and besides, flourish trade was not an attraction to Ming government since it could barely benefit from it (due to poor tax system on trade; often the cost to maintain the system was on bar with the income itself). Poor control often means the private individual amassed great wealth without the notice of government (or even by using government power), and Chinese emperors were traditionally fear this group of people because having mass private resource often was the first step of rebellion.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

The interesting thing is that there were plenty of Chinese living in South East Asia. The Chinese just weren't interested in colonizing and their Zheng He voyages were conducted because Yongle wanted to declare his imperial powers to the world. That and it was a good way of interacting with foreign nations now that the land routes would be permanently closed because of the Mongols (not that trade stopped but the Ming had no power into the Tarim Basin and the rest of the silk road). Taking out pirates in the straights of Malacca and taking out rulers in places that were opposed to the Chinese commercialism was a good way to do it and increase trade at the same time, it was very Gunboat diplomacy of Yongle. The whole time there were no intents to colonize places but rather to enforce Ming trade claims and protect Chinese inhabitants in these regions from anti-Chinese sentiment.

What I find more interesting is why Yongle chose to invade Vietnam despite his father specifically naming that country in his do not invade list. Also of note is how easily the Vietnamese got riled up because of cultural differences; the Ming enforced some bans on Vietnamese customs and enforced Chinese customs and this pissed off everyone for some reason even if most of them did not take to the streets to slaughter Ming soldiers. Now this decision greatly pleased the Kingdom of Champa because the Vietnamese were encroaching on their land, they had petitioned Yongle several times to help them in this struggle, in a hilarious turn of events Yongle invaded Vietnam and then annexed a few of Champa's northern provinces in an attempt to better secure this newly conquered region. I really don't know how Champa felt about this but if they were angered they did not express it very loudly.

[ptan54]

Trade was definitely flourishing by the 1500s. Spanish silver from the New World made its way to Manila and then to China. China built up a huge silver surplus over the centuries and this became one of the flashpoints for the opium trade and wars - it was Europe's way to get the silver out of the Chinese economy.

See: http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/chinawh/web/s5/s5_4.html

Also Andre Gunder Frank in Re-Orient touches on the subject.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

Come to think of it when the Portuguese conquered Malacca and dethroned a Ming vassal the Ming did nothing about it. They just put restrictions on the Portuguese presence in the South China Seas and fought their piracy. Ideally the Ming would have sent a fleet and ousted the Portuguese from Malacca altogether. On the other hand trade really picked up with the Portuguese arrival.

[Hresvelgr]

I read a great deal about this some time ago, in terms of 'who would win' in large scale naval battles, the Ming fleets would. Hands down. No question.

At this period of time the only 'European' fleet large enough to pose a threat were the Venetians, but they obviously were not going to venture into the Indian Ocean.

Take for example this Ming treasure ship compared to one of the ships columbus used to sail the ocean blue around the same time;



I think its pretty easy to see who the victor would be. Fair enough the Chinese did not have many of those ships, but they had many more smaller warships and merchant ships that were a great deal larger than comparable European ships. To my knowledge Chinese firearms and cannon were not that much different to their European counterparts and unless a European power sailed a vast armada around the horn of Africa into the Indian Ocean, they would always be outnumbered by the Chinese in a large pitched battle (assuming of course that the ming presence in the Indian Ocean was maintained).

Trade did flourish in this time period, it wasnt just symbolic tributes sent back to China. A great deal of trade did occur and with more time this could have increased exponentially, especially if trade could have been established with the Europeans. The Indian ocean could have become a Chinese controlled transit hub for trade between Europe/Africa and China/Japan/South-East Asia.

I dont think its inconceivable to imagine the Ming fleets establishing secure naval ports along the Indian Ocean as the Europeans would later do to secure their supply routes and have dry-docks for supply and maintenance of the fleets.

Also here's a discussion on another site regarding a similar topic: the Spanish Armada Vs the Zheng He treasure fleet.

http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forum...ad.php?t=91738

Modern research suggests that such treasure ships did not exist, they are far too large and bulky to have been seaworthy. Even the smaller Lake Nemi ships were too big to do anything but sit on a lake, and the claimed Tessarakonteres (a Ptolemaic ship supposed to have been around the same claimed length for the Ming treasure ship) could only serve as a show piece, something theorized the biggest Ming ship served as as well and in any case there's not a lot of archaeological or physical evidence to back up the idea that the Ming could and did have such gargantuan junks sailing the seas.

[IrishBlood]

Come to think of it when the Portuguese conquered Malacca and dethroned a Ming vassal the Ming did nothing about it. They just put restrictions on the Portuguese presence in the South China Seas and fought their piracy. Ideally the Ming would have sent a fleet and ousted the Portuguese from Malacca altogether. On the other hand trade really picked up with the Portuguese arrival.

Thats exactly the issue. The ming simply didnt care about anything as long as it didnt happen on Chinas immediate borders

Modern research suggests that such treasure ships did not exist, they are far too large and bulky to have been seaworthy. Even the smaller Lake Nemi ships were too big to do anything but sit on a lake, and the claimed Tessarakonteres (a Ptolemaic ship supposed to have been around the same claimed length for the Ming treasure ship) could only serve as a show piece, something theorized the biggest Ming ship served as as well and in any case there's not a lot of archaeological or physical evidence to back up the idea that the Ming could and did have such gargantuan junks sailing the seas.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

The Ming even gave Macao to the Portuguese in 1557 because these Nanban barbarians fought Chinese and Wokou piracy. Also buying goods from said Nanban barbarians was a nice bonus. I've always believed that if a Chinese state could conquer Burma and maintain control then they could have operated their world wide fleets from there. Of course there are the aforementioned problems of conquest and administration and developing that coastline so that fleets could be operated. Upon a myriad of other problems that stretch from construction of said fleets, naval infrastructure and naval operations in that area and a tonne of other things that I've no doubt overlooked. Good luck with the Monsoon is all I'm saying (speaking of which how did Zheng He deal with the Monsoon?). As far as I've read the South East Asians mostly operated large canoes, galleys based on the Portuguese designs and seagoing vessels in imitation of the Chinese Junks and it's not like they ventured very far.

Take the Yuan for example, they conquered the Pagan Empire in Burma so I guess it was possible to some extent. Although I think Kublai's successor Temur abandoned it after some revolts broke out like a decade or two later. Then 500 years later Qianlong tried to conquer Konbaung and he failed after like four invasions (all varying in size and geographical scale). South East Asia hasn't been kind to the Chinese invaders, aside from the first three Chinese "Dominations" of Vietnam I don't recall them having any long term success down there.

[IrishBlood]

The Ming even gave Macao to the Portuguese in 1557 because these Nanban barbarians fought Chinese and Wokou piracy. Also buying goods from said Nanban barbarians was a nice bonus. I've always believed that if a Chinese state could conquer Burma and maintain control then they could have operated their world wide fleets from there. Of course there are the aforementioned problems of conquest and administration and developing that coastline so that fleets could be operated. Upon a myriad of other problems that stretch from construction of said fleets, naval infrastructure and naval operations in that area and a tonne of other things that I've no doubt overlooked. Good luck with the Monsoon is all I'm saying (speaking of which how did Zheng He deal with the Monsoon?). As far as I've read the South East Asians mostly operated large canoes, galleys based on the Portuguese designs and seagoing vessels in imitation of the Chinese Junks and it's not like they ventured very far.

Take the Yuan for example, they conquered the Pagan Empire in Burma so I guess it was possible to some extent. Although I think Kublai's successor Temur abandoned it after some revolts broke out like a decade or two later. Then 500 years later Qianlong tried to conquer Konbaung and he failed after like four invasions (all varying in size and geographical scale). South East Asia hasn't been kind to the Chinese invaders, aside from the first three Chinese "Dominations" of Vietnam I don't recall them having any long term success down there.

Well dense jungle and extreme humidity has never been favorable to any invader

To my knowledge Zeng He didn't do do much land based conquering, their naval strength was so great that they could simply demand whatever they wanted in tribute and if they didn't receive it then they could have wrecked virtually every coastal settlement as punishment! Zheng He also captured Sri Lanka, or at least the coastal regions, so its not inconceivable to think that the chinese could have held certain strategic coastal areas like Sri Lanka, modern day Singapore, and a few other key ports along the Burmese or Indian coast in order to maintain an overwhelming naval presence in the Indian ocean.

They wouldnt even have needed to conquer or occupy them either, vassal or at least friendly states would ahve a lot to gain financially from having massive chinese treasure fleets passing through their ports, not to mention the level of protection the would ahve been assured by the chinese emperor, at least diplomatically if not militarily.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

That's right Zheng He attacked the ancient city of Kotte and took their king hostage, even brought the poor bastard to China.
At various points Zheng He directly confronted Chen Zuyi's pirate fleet in Palembang Sumatra, Sekandar in Semudera Sumatra and at least on two occasions used gun boat diplomacy on an East African city state and against Majapahit kingdoms in Western and Eastern Java.
Most of the countries visited by Zheng He just paid tribute or wanted to trade. At least in the case of Palembang and Semudera those cities had been taken over by an authority which the Ming did not view as legitimate. The Majapahit and the Lankans were outright hostile either trying to avoid paying tribute by force of arms or executing the Ming diplomatic envoys. Some of the stated goals of the mission were to establish diplomatic relations with foreigners, gain subjects through vassalage and to patrol the sea lanes for the sake of merchants and for their newly acquired vassals. Not only did the Ming try to shape the world as they saw fit but they were promoting their interests by "encouraging" the kingdoms they came across to establish Chinese trade or at the very least to be tolerant of the Chinese that lived within their realms, many of them migrating there for the sake of mercantilism.

[Condottiere 40K]

2119
I think it pretty much comes down t9o as to whether Chinese trade, and the active protection of it pays for itself and is militarily viable.

Capturing and controlling Burma does look like the Chinese equivalent of getting a warm water port.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

Current US military theory states that if China were to acquire a warm water port it would most likely be in Burma. China has already invested money in building up commercial ports for trade purposes. However the same US sources also state that if China attempted to build bases and ports in Burma then India would most likely retaliate militarily and relatively easily destroy those ports, likewise in Sri Lanka where China also builds ports.

As far as I recall though the emperor had the fleet burnt and destroyed the records of the voyages, is this true? Why would anyone destroy these records?
Zheng He himself is very interesting. He was a Muslim eunuch of Hui ethnic descent that came to serve Zhu Di (the Yongle Emperor) when Di was only the prince of Yan. At the start of conflict between Emperor Jianwen and Prince Di, Zheng He was put in command of a military unit and helped to successfully defend Beiping from the forces of the Jianwen Emperor. Afterwards he served in Prince Di's southern campaign to capture Nanjing and Prince Di became the Yongle Emperor. Zheng He held several administrative posts after that and was eventually made commander of the Treasure Fleet. Zheng He died a couple years later when he returned from his seventh voyage.

[Condottiere 40K]

4910
But the Indians in that or those periods might not catch on to the strategic significance of the Chinese building a port there, and presumably a highway infrastructure, or might not care, or might have problems of their own closer to home.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

Most likely India would use combined air and naval strikes. But it's the PLA so they're no threat to anyone except maybe Mongolia and North Korea.
So while I do believe that the Ming would be a threat to a great deal of nations the PLA would only get a slight boon by controlling both sides of the Malacca straight (if we take into account the South China Sea of course). That in itself would be fleeting at the present moment since the PLA isn't exactly seaworthy despite having a huge naval arm.

If the Ming managed to do this then the big question might be how successful would they have been in defending their vassals from the machinations of the Europeans. The first Portuguese Armada under Vasco da Gama reached India in 1497 and in 1500 they opened hostilities with Calicut. But also how would their economy fair? More inflation from more trade perhaps, it would be difficult to restrict any sort of trade when they are that overstretched in two seas. I would say the restriction of trade increased hostility towards Ming and a sort of hit and run insurgency (Mongol raiders, Japanese pirates, Chinese pirates, Portuguese, Dutch, British/Opium War). But what really was the reason for destroying the Treasure Fleet (if it indeed happened) was the cost burden that bad?

[IrishBlood]

Most likely India would use combined air and naval strikes. But it's the PLA so they're no threat to anyone except maybe Mongolia and North Korea.
So while I do believe that the Ming would be a threat to a great deal of nations the PLA would only get a slight boon by controlling both sides of the Malacca straight (if we take into account the South China Sea of course). That in itself would be fleeting at the present moment since the PLA isn't exactly seaworthy despite having a huge naval arm.

If the Ming managed to do this then the big question might be how successful would they have been in defending their vassals from the machinations of the Europeans. The first Portuguese Armada under Vasco da Gama reached India in 1497 and in 1500 they opened hostilities with Calicut. But also how would their economy fair? More inflation from more trade perhaps, it would be difficult to restrict any sort of trade when they are that overstretched in two seas. I would say the restriction of trade increased hostility towards Ming and a sort of hit and run insurgency (Mongol raiders, Japanese pirates, Chinese pirates, Portuguese, Dutch, British/Opium War). But what really was the reason for destroying the Treasure Fleet (if it indeed happened) was the cost burden that bad?

To my knowledge the main reason the fleet was destroyed was because conservative eunuchs in the emperors court gained a great deal of influence and basically poisened him against the idea. They viewed China as the pinnacle of human civilization and didnt see the point in wasting money going to new lands. it was primarily politics that saw the untimely and sudden end of the highly successful treasure fleets.

It marked the beginning of an insular policy where by the ming, or subsequent dynastys for that matter didn't really seem to care about anything happening beyond chinas immediate borders.

[Condottiere 40K]

6414
If the Chinese colonize Burma, they could also build a canal across Thailand, allowing them to bypass the Straits of Malacca.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

Never thought of that. Good point but definitely costly. Assuming the Chinese could hold on to that then that sounds more like a 20th century task because of technological constraints in China. Since I do not know about Chinese canal construction I would put it as a really good theory.