Ukraine and Crimea development thread

[General Mosh]

What I thought was interesting was the fact that people are just calmly walking through the Presidential Palace. There was not the feverish looting and trashing seen across the Middle East, although I suppose that may come.

Probably because, despite what the pro-Russians on here would have you believe, Ukraine still had and has a democratic government after Yanukovich's overthrow, one which commands the respect of the people, or at least some of them. If I remember correctly the palace was opened after it was seized by the government, so rather than a massive anti-government protest rolling through the place as you might see in the Middle East, there was an orderly group of people come to see an area opened to them peacefully by the government.

[Condottiere 40K]

All we need is Kristallnacht in Crimea to complete this phase.

[AgentGB]

jeez, that was a close one for the vice reporters.

[Simon Cashmere]

What an awesome piece of journalism, props to them.

[Roma_Victrix]

What an awesome piece of journalism, props to them.

Agreed, that was truly something else. A pretty stark difference really between the two sides.

[caratacus]

No wonder they are wearing face masks if they are Berkut. Should guys with new found Russian citizenships be controlling movement, in what is until a referendum, still Ukraine!? questions of legality seem worthless when looking at this process of Crimean annexation.

What i like about these news reports, is that he actually engages with the people. Too many of the reports Ive seen, have the reporter talk to the camera about events without providing in depth reporting. I would like to know more about Russian speakers perspective, do they really see themselves as Ukrainian? why do many shun the Ukrainian flag in favour of flying a Russian one as a demonstration of their opposition to the parliament in Kiev?

It would seem that Putin's army men are digging in a securing Crimea so it can be part of Russia. But where will that leave Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine. Those supporting Putin's actions in Crimea should reflect that they pose a serious danger of being unprepared and ultimately unrepresented after the elections in May. Putin isn't talking to the Ukrainian government but if those representing Russian speakers do the same, the new elections will cause more problems than they will solve. News reports in these areas concerning this issue, are decidedly lacking and are only confined to outbreaks of trouble.

The biggest problem is not Crimea, its a peninsula and seems to have been effectively annexed completely by Putin without trouble. The problem will be how to bring the rest of Ukraine together, given the tensions caused by Russia's involvement. News reports in eastern Ukraine covering this are distinctly lacking.

[Dromikaites]

We have now an explicit EU ultimatum. Unless Russia takes visible measures to de-escalate the situation in Crimea by this week-end, the sanctions would start to pour on Russia from March 17th on. Those sanctions would include assets-freezing and limitations on gas imports among other things. And the EU calls those "Phase II", promising there would be also a "Phase III".

Interestingly enough the Japanese and Turkish governments would also join-in as their representatives arrived in London to contribute to the drawing-up up of the list of the persons whose assets would be frozen and who would be denied visas.

OK, Turkey as a NATO member and as a country negotiating EU membership is not exactly surprising (add to that Turkey's interest in protecting the Crimean Tatars). But what I find really surprising is Japan joining the fray. The only possible explanations I see are two:

1. Japan hopes Putin would not back down, dragging Russia into Cold War 2. Japan joins in early, so when Russia is utterly ruined Japan gets Western support in settling her existing territorial border dispute with Russia. And quite likely the Japanese government obtains some lucrative contracts for the Japanese corporations when it comes to rebuilding what would be left of Russia. Mining Siberia is just as interesting for Japan as it is for China. Why do I bring China into this? Because China has already stated that she supports maintaining Ukraine's territorial integrity, thus giving the West green light to bring Russia to her knees. While we might think China is worried about Tibet going the way of Crimea, the Chinese motivation is much simpler: it costs less to bring resources from Siberia than from Africa. All that pile of cash the Chinese sit on could be put to good use closer to China's borders once Russia becomes more "foreign investors-friendly";

2. Japan wants the 1994 Budapest Memorandum enforced, because failing to enforce it would sent North Korea the wrong message: "Never abandon your nukes because the West can't keep its promises".

Phase II measures look serious enough for Putin, his buddies and the Russian economy (therefore for the Russians at large as well). I wonder what Phase III might involve.

And I remain very interested in reading the Russia fan club reactions after the deadline passes. No matter what Putin decides, they won't like the results.

Pavlik the Rus wrote last week that the West wants do dismantle Russia.

That is only half of the truth. The other half is the West would gladly welcome Russia into its structures (EU & NATO) in one piece. Which would be the best option for the average Ivan and Natasha, because then their civil rights would be upheld and the politicians they elect would be held accountable for how they manage the taxpayers' money.

But that can't be done with the current Russian politicians and oligarchs, because the moment Russia operates at least like Bulgaria or Romania (which is a far cry from operating like Germany or France), those politicians and oligarchs would go behind bars.

So as long as the Russians keep Putin and his ilk in power the predictable outcome would be that the West, China and Japan would make plans about how to cut Russia into more manageable pieces.

[Mangalore]

We have now an explicit EU ultimatum. Unless Russia takes visible measures to de-escalate the situation in Crimea by this week-end, the sanctions would start to pour on Russia from March 17th on. Those sanctions would include assets-freezing and limitations on gas imports among other things. And the EU calls those "Phase II", promising there would be also a "Phase III".

Interestingly enough the Japanese and Turkish governments would also join-in as their representatives arrived in London to contribute to the drawing-up up of the list of the persons whose assets would be frozen and who would be denied visas.

OK, Turkey as a NATO member and as a country negotiating EU membership is not exactly surprising (add to that Turkey's interest in protecting the Crimean Tatars). But what I find really surprising is Japan joining the fray.

Phase II measures look serious enough for Putin, his buddies and the Russian economy (therefore for the Russians at large as well). I wonder what Phase III might involve.

And I remain very interested in reading the Russia fan club reactions after the deadline passes. No matter what Putin decides, they won't like the results.

Well, Japan still has some territorial disputes with Russia and knows it can use US military assistance in the future.


Some passing bit yesterday was that the Ukraine for the first time asked for military assistance (in the form of equipment), apparently with a node to the 1994 agreements in which besides Russia the US and the UK guaranteed its territorial integrity. Did any come of it? I guess the US and UK will be tickled to get dragged deeper into this so I don't know if they bite, but today the Ukraine declared to concentrate their military to protect the rest of the Ukraine in essence ignoring the Crimea to prevent getting boxed in from two sides. That's nice I guess, except if you are one of the Ukrainian soldiers stuck in Crimea.

[Dromikaites]

Well, Japan still has some territorial disputes with Russia and knows it can use US military assistance in the future.


Some passing bit yesterday was that the Ukraine for the first time asked for military assistance (in the form of equipment), apparently with a node to the 1994 agreements in which besides Russia the US and the UK guaranteed its territorial integrity. Did any come of it? I guess the US and UK will be tickled to get dragged deeper into this so I don't know if they bite, but today the Ukraine declared to concentrate their military to protect the rest of the Ukraine in essence ignoring the Crimea to prevent getting boxed in from two sides. That's nice I guess, except if you are one of the Ukrainian soldiers stuck in Crimea.

What the Ukrainians declared is a tad more nuanced. They said they cannot get into Crimea full force for now because the largest Russian tank forces are on their Eastern border.

But they aren't alone in this:
- Better equipment will come;
- Sanctions will strike Russia starting from next Monday or Putin would disperse the forces surrounding the Ukrainian bases in order to prevent those sanctions;
- The OSCE might get into Crimea, which would also result in the siege of those bases being lifted (as seen in those Vice reports, the rumors that the OSCE observers are on their way caused the Russian troops and the Cossacks to melt away).

So while the Ukrainian Army won't go full force on Crimea for now doesn't exclude going full force "Operation Storm"-style some other day when those tank forces won't be such a challenge anymore for a better equipped Ukrainian army. Nor does that exclude the Russians themselves to be forced to back down under the pressure of the international sanctions.

[Mangalore]

What the Ukrainians declared is a tad more nuanced. They said they cannot get into Crimea full force for now because the largest Russian tank forces are on their Eastern border.

...

Well, my main point was that this seemed the first semi open call for the guarantee powers of the 1994 agreement to actively support it by military means, even if only via arms deliveries.

[Kindjal83]

Why do I bring China into this? Because China has already stated that she supports maintaining Ukraine's territorial integrity, thus giving the West green light to bring Russia to her knees. While we might think China is worried about Tibet going the way of Crimea, the Chinese motivation is much simpler: it costs less to bring resources from Siberia than from Africa. All that pile of cash the Chinese sit on could be put to good use closer to China's borders once Russia becomes more "foreign investors-friendly"

And also keeping in mind the Taiwan issue... China is observing this with great interest... And taking notes of what she can and can't do. Althought the Chinese Governement is Lightyears aways more intelligent than Putin it seems... They are working directly with the Taiwan Government to work this issue, instead of deploying "identifiable" (obvious) Chinese troops in Taiwan, and reafirming that they are not Chinese...

Personaly, I wan't to see how Putin is going to take his balls from this vicegrip that he put himself in...

[Nikitn]

Dromikates,

1) No sanctions are going to hit the Russian economy. The phase II means: "The European Union is on course to impose travel bans and to freeze the assets of Russian officials and military officers involved in the occupation of Crimea by next Monday if Moscow declines to accept the formation of a "contact group" to establish a dialogue with Ukraine." Really, how stupid do you think the EU is? All the sanctions that have been or may be imposed (phase III, the "undisclosed" sanctions, involve a Russian invasion of Ukraine which isn't likely to happen) are teethless and just for show.

2) Ukraine being anywhere near able to face the Russian army head on after a few weeks of "western re-equipment" is not going to happen. Keep your war fantasies to yourself, unless you want to go to the front and fight.

Btw, how's with the "7 days until the West shows Russia who's boss" thing you had going? It's been over two weeks now, dromi .

[DisgruntledGoat]

Dromikates,

1) No sanctions are going to hit the Russian economy. The phase II means: "The European Union is on course to impose travel bans and to freeze the assets of Russian officials and military officers involved in the occupation of Crimea by next Monday if Moscow declines to accept the formation of a "contact group" to establish a dialogue with Ukraine." Really, how stupid do you think the EU is? All the sanctions that have been or may be imposed (phase III, the "undisclosed" sanctions, involve a Russian invasion of Ukraine which isn't likely to happen) are teethless and just for show.

2) Ukraine being anywhere near able to face the Russian army head on after a few weeks of "western re-equipment" is not going to happen. Keep your war fantasies to yourself, unless you want to go to the front and fight.

Btw, how's with the "7 days until the West shows Russia who's boss" thing you had going? It's been over two weeks now, dromi .

I like how you have dropped all pretenses of non-russian involvement, non-invasion, and legality of russian operations and have just moved onto. "Well, were here now, try and get rid of us."

[Dromikaites]

Btw, how's with the "7 days until the West shows Russia who's boss" thing you had going? It's been over two weeks now, dromi .

It is keeping happening since before those 7 days have even passed. The US sent two ships into the Black Sea, NATO moved planes closer to Ukraine, the Ukrainian army moved East and South, the EU worked out the terms of the ultimatum, Japan and Turkey joined the coalition, China stated she wont rock the Western boat and she doesn't side with Russia, etc.

As a Russian living in Norway (as you claim to be) you might still interpret things by Russian standards, meaning that unless somebody is killed or beaten up there's no show of force.

As a Russian living in Norway you might not feel the impact of the sanctions either (though if you are the son of an oligarch sent to study abroad, you might hear daddy has suddenly a cash flow problem). Well, at least you won't feel the impact until the Norwegian authorities start keeping closer tabs on their Russian guests, the way all the Western countries were keeping tabs on their Soviet guests during the Cold War...

But your relatives in Russia for sure would not enjoy what this little stunt of Putin's would bring them.

[KieKeBooN]

I think we're on the brink of finding out how stable the Russian economy really is.

Note: Oh my, the stocks are already going down at the mere mention of sanctions, I wonder what would happen if Europe starts talking about shutting of the gas and closing borders.

[Derpy Hooves]

So can someone who supports the proposed Crimean referendum tell me why it must be held in less than 10 days (as opposed to the Scottish referendum which was given about 2 years preparation)?

second question: can someone who supports the Crimean referendum tell me why voters should not be allowed to vote no? Both options oppose the status quo

[Nikitn]

(though if you are the son of an oligarch sent to study abroad, you might hear daddy has suddenly a cash flow problem).

And what makes you think I'm not your other category of russophile westerners? Ie son of a GRU/FSB operative living abroad? They can't stop the cash flow if they don't know who we are

[Heathen Hammer]

Probably because, despite what the pro-Russians on here would have you believe, Ukraine still had and has a democratic government after Yanukovich's overthrow, one which commands the respect of the people, or at least some of them.

Proof? It was never elected into power, so it wasn't democratic. Hell, half the country quite openly does not recognize it.

If Americans like Ukrainian Democracy so much, then perhaps they wouldn't mind doing to Washington what was done in Kiev? Gather all of Murrica's far-right, get them to beat the out of the cops and take the White House and depose Obama.

[KieKeBooN]

So can someone who supports the proposed Crimean referendum tell me why it must be held in less than 10 days (as opposed to the Scottish referendum which was given about 2 years preparation)?

second question: can someone who supports the Crimean referendum tell me why voters should not be allowed to vote no? Both options oppose the status quo

Easily:
One, Russia cannot wait for the west to formulate a response. So it has to be quick.
Two, 60% is not a vast majority (and legaly whise, a higher margin than 60% could be needed for such a referendum) Neither Putin or the current Crimean government are taking any chances of the vote going awry. If the outcome was certain Russia didn't need to move the troops in.

[Dromikaites]

And what makes you think I'm not your other category of russophile westerners? Ie son of a GRU/FSB operative living abroad? They can't stop the cash flow if they don't know who we are

You may be the son of a FSB/GRU operative abroad but that distinction is irrelevant in the age of Carnivore-like software.

You have posted pro-Russian propaganda on a forum located in the West. If you have used your home connection or your phone connection, that software has identified you already. Even the Norwegians are monitoring their web traffic.

If you used a proxy server or something like TOR, then you definitely got their attention. "They" might not know who you are yet, but you are automatically placed in a different database and another nice piece of software starts matching the style of your posts here with posts everywhere else, looking for a stylistic match and an occasion where you used an identifiable connection. All that is automatic, without any human intervention.

So go ahead, enjoy the fallout of the "just for show" sanctions which are coming starting with March 17th. But if I were you and if my daddy would really be a GRU/FSB operative I would never mention to him what I'm doing on the Internet. It might ruin his day.