Fantasy Football (World cup edition)

[Søren]

Interesting gameweek in the H2H league. Unless Noble gets at least 5 points this evening (EDIT: As was so close to happening, with the assist for Carroll's goal, but the yellow card reduced it to 4), it looks like all of the top 3 will lose their matches, leaving Obiwan Kenobinil and Q's Victory just within touching distance.

Seeing as we're very near the end of the season now, thought it would be interesting to take a look at how everyone's played the game. Here are some statistics from the top 9 (chosen as there's a 141 point gap between 9 & 10).

Column 1 = Team value
Column 2 = Point hits
Column 3 = Total transfers

£114.0m - 36 - 38 (Søren FC)
£109.6m - 68 - 46 (I <3 Luis Garcia)
£111.5m - 32 - 37 (Gripen FC)
£107.1m - 32 - 37 (Obiwan Kenobinil)
£107.2m - 16* - 28 (The Aigburth Supreme)
£105.3m - 28 - 31 (Bjørns svinefylking)
£106.5m - 52 - 42 (Q's Victory)
£106.8m - 84 - 50 (Moreinho's mojo)
£104.2m - 20 - 31 (Middx Minutemen)

*All of these four hits, incidentally, were taken in one gameweek.

There's a close correlation between points total and team value, but quite a variance when it comes to point hits. Three of the top four fall into a narrow range of 32-26, but I was surprised to see that Adhamh's team had taken the second most. Looking back I'd say that a few of my hits were unnecessary, with the awful gameweek 23 Özil > Cabaye followed by Cabaye > Johnson (as he got sold to PSG), being the nadir.

[Azog 150]

Some interesting stats- thanks for sharing.

There was a few weeks in which I forgot to make changes to my team, and I think for me the fixture lists becoming all messed up with some teams playing and some not possibly cost me quite a few potential points.

Note to self for next season: make more transfers!

[Charlatan]

£106.8m - 84 - 50 (Moreinho's mojo)

I'm sure I posted up about NOT making knee jerk transfers at the start of the year but to be fair I'm surprised it's still only 50 transfers

I did make a huge error regarding team value at the start of the season as I was selecting players based on % ownership as I was expecting team value to rise from day one which it didn't and turns out that my team value suffered immensely because of it as a lot of my players were being sold like crazy early doors, missing major buses like Ramsey, Hazard and Yaya who have all raised by around 2 million this season hasn't helped either. (Not too bothered about the money but the points missed have killed me.)

My money league also influences cheeky hits as we pay out monthly so I'm all game for a cheeky 4 or 8 pointer to set my team up for the start of the next month if I'm lagging behind. It's helped me win the last two awards and no one else in the division has twigged on to a similar system yet so yeah keep that one a secret. If I was more competitive at the business end of my leagues I'd probably not be making the same amount of transfers, I can't remember taking too many last season when I was third.

Last season's overall winner only had a net team value of around 107 million so it's well worth remembering points > value.

[Charlatan]

It's taken a lot longer than expected but Adar has finally joined the party by winning the MOM for what proved to be a very topsy turvy March, both Gripen and Perth United had a cracking GW 31 having the leagues single GW scoring record with a monster 152 thanks to the DGW.


An interesting Stat about Adar's team in March is that he never once played with only 3 at the back (Adebayor has been injured), as he has gone for a double double at the back with both Azpilicueta and Ivanovic from Chelski and Baines and Coleman from Everton. A lot of money is tied up defensively but it seems to have paid big dividends for March if you pair that lot with the SAS. He did his best to try and spoil it all though by signing a Fulham player which has to be a Fantasy no-no this season but none the less congrats man.


The H2H league has entered squeaky bum time at the end of the third quarter with only 3 points separating Soren, Ash and Adar and I think they all have to play each other so no doubt whoever comes out on top of that little mini league may just have the edge for the run in whilst in the classic league Soren has been able to maintain his 70ish point league but a few good (c) picks could still make the difference.

[♔hammeredalways♔]

It's taken a lot longer than expected but Adar has finally joined the party by winning the MOM for what proved to be a very topsy turvy March, both Gripen and Perth United had a cracking GW 31 having the leagues single GW scoring record with a monster 152 thanks to the DGW.


An interesting Stat about Adar's team in March is that he never once played with only 3 at the back (Adebayor has been injured), as he has gone for a double double at the back with both Azpilicueta and Ivanovic from Chelski and Baines and Coleman from Everton. A lot of money is tied up defensively but it seems to have paid big dividends for March if you pair that lot with the SAS. He did his best to try and spoil it all though by signing a Fulham player which has to be a Fantasy no-no this season but none the less congrats man.


The H2H league has entered squeaky bum time at the end of the third quarter with only 3 points separating Soren, Ash and Adar and I think they all have to play each other so no doubt whoever comes out on top of that little mini league may just have the edge for the run in whilst in the classic league Soren has been able to maintain his 70ish point league but a few good (c) picks could still make the difference.

can you confirm the high score in week 31?

[Søren]

Yeah, my 161 was higher than those too, but your 162 wins it.

[Charlatan]

can you confirm the high score in week 31?

Yeah, my 161 was higher than those too, but your 162 wins it.

Yeah apologies guys, I only looked at the H2H league results and still managed to get it wrong, too busy looking over Adar's team, I thought hammeredalways had dropped from the game and didn't notice that he'd came back with a bang. Can't be singing the praises of a ghost team. Glad to have you back Hammered.

[Adar]

An interesting Stat about Adar's team in March is that he never once played with only 3 at the back (Adebayor has been injured), as he has gone for a double double at the back with both Azpilicueta and Ivanovic from Chelski and Baines and Coleman from Everton. A lot of money is tied up defensively but it seems to have paid big dividends for March if you pair that lot with the SAS. He did his best to try and spoil it all though by signing a Fulham player which has to be a Fantasy no-no this season but none the less congrats man.e.

As I see it player earnings can be modelled with the following formula.

Points = [Averige score] + [correction for fixture difficulty] + [random variable]

Average score and the correction is skill related while the random variable is what we call luck and luck is independent between players from different teams and almost independent between forwards. But for defenders (and a few rare cases where players link up very often) we see a huge co-variance in the outcome of the random variable (ie unlucky goals affect both players)

When leading the league it is a good idea to spread the defensive selection to avoid unlucky situations and series of bad fixtures. That way the game mainly become an issue of using your skill to optimize the team and compensate for fixture difficulty to get the most points.

But for me trying to catch up it is better if I get more extreme outcomes. Because I need several extreme outcomes to lose the third place, but I only need one round of luck to get ahead of Adam.

The selected defenders I've selected also got an average PPG at around 5 pts per game which is good value compared to the price of midfielders with the same average.

[Søren]

A big Suarez haul tomorrow might provide just that opportunity, I wouldn't feel comfortable taking the armband off him at the moment, especially given the number of goals West Brom have been conceding recently.

[Adar]

A big Suarez haul tomorrow might provide just that opportunity, I wouldn't feel comfortable taking the armband off him at the moment, especially given the number of goals West Brom have been conceding recently.

Yeah, I am fairly certain that I have benefited a lot from Adam trying to differentiate himself from you.

[Charlatan]

I wouldn't feel comfortable taking the armband off him at the moment

It's always going to be tough going without Suarez as (c), when he scores it could be massive, I've had Mata as my VC for the last two weeks but I still feel comfortable with the armband on Suarez.

Still 2 DGW's ahead that don't include Liverpool so there is still an outside chance of having a major differential as a (c) who could possibly put up big numbers.

[Azog 150]

I'm feeling a few Sturridge goals today so I've given him the armband over Suarez. Lets hope it pays off.

[♔hammeredalways♔]

Yeah apologies guys, I only looked at the H2H league results and still managed to get it wrong, too busy looking over Adar's team, I thought hammeredalways had dropped from the game and didn't notice that he'd came back with a bang. Can't be singing the praises of a ghost team. Glad to have you back Hammered.

thanks, just like the Hammers back from the dead, just like the Hammers looks like another season of mid table obscurity (even if we had a few moments in Dec & Jan)

[Azog 150]

I'm feeling a few Sturridge goals today so I've given him the armband over Suarez. Lets hope it pays off.

Well that was certainly a stupid move, not that Suarez got too many points either. Sturridge was definitely having something of an off-day!

[Søren]

Outstanding gameweek from Adar, 3,263rd in the world, bringing him up to second place in our league and just over 10,000th place overall. Next week will be interesting: given my place of 1,689 there's a temptation to go all in on differentials in the double gameweek in search of a truly high finish, but with the gap between me and Adar now down to only 53 points, I am having to look over my shoulder too.

[Adar]

Outstanding gameweek from Adar, 3,263rd in the world, bringing him up to second place in our league and just over 10,000th place overall. Next week will be interesting: given my place of 1,689 there's a temptation to go all in on differentials in the double gameweek in search of a truly high finish, but with the gap between me and Adar now down to only 53 points, I am having to look over my shoulder too.

I think "differentials" in fantasy premier league is just as bad as "spices" in your stock portfolio.

It is certainly an advantage if a player got a low ownership percentage but he still need to have a better average + fixture difficulty, otherwise you will lose points.

My aim is to break into the top 10 000 players but I apart from that I am already planning for next season. This season I've been suffering from not actually watching the Premier league but I am surprised by how far trusted reviewers can get you in the fantasy premier league.

[Charlatan]

This season I've been suffering from not actually watching the Premier league but I am surprised by how far trusted reviewers can get you in the fantasy premier league.

This is a very good point, (Not the bit about not watching football.) there are now loads of sites all dedicated to fantasy football and I can highly recommend taking the time to gloss over any hints + tips that they produce as it'll provide you lots of information regarding future transfers, possible strategy's etc. 9 times out of 10 there will be someone on the forums in the exact same situation as you so going through their conversation could (Be warned not everyone gets it right) provide some useful info.

I use a new site called FF247

http://fantasyfootball247.co.uk/

I think Adar uses FF scout

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Sorens a member of the Fiso community

http://www.fiso.co.uk/

(I've guessed at Adar's and Soren's websites from the league's they've joined)

[Adar]

This is a very good point, (Not the bit about not watching football.) there are now loads of sites all dedicated to fantasy football and I can highly recommend taking the time to gloss over any hints + tips that they produce as it'll provide you lots of information regarding future transfers, possible strategy's etc. 9 times out of 10 there will be someone on the forums in the exact same situation as you so going through their conversation could (Be warned not everyone gets it right) provide some useful info.

I use a new site called FF247

http://fantasyfootball247.co.uk/

I think Adar uses FF scout

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/

Sorens a member of the Fiso community

http://www.fiso.co.uk/

(I've guessed at Adar's and Soren's websites from the league's they've joined)

I am a member of their league but I take everything Fantasy Football scout says with a large amount of salt. They are a good source for injury information (which is absolutely vital) but when it comes to player selection I believe that they are too much like day trading stock sites. They just overwhelm you with information and overcompensate for recent issues.

My favourite source is sadly in Swedish but his big advantage is that he actually cares about the game rather than if someone is "due for points". Mata is for example looking like a quality option as long as he gets to drift around in the nr10 role and my decision on getting him would be completely based on if I believe that he can remain there or not. FFS obscures that position with pseuo-info while that blog provide a good perspective.

Zonalmarking.net is the closest thing I've found in English but it have lost a bit of quality and is also too focused on isolated games.

[Ybbon]

As my strategy involves not looking at a single FF site ever, it might explain my death-hold on 13th. I'm doing a Wenger, refuse to budge no matter what the evidence of your eyes might tell you

[Søren]

I think "differentials" in fantasy premier league is just as bad as "spices" in your stock portfolio.

It is certainly an advantage if a player got a low ownership percentage but he still need to have a better average + fixture difficulty, otherwise you will lose points.

My aim is to break into the top 10 000 players but I apart from that I am already planning for next season. This season I've been suffering from not actually watching the Premier league but I am surprised by how far trusted reviewers can get you in the fantasy premier league.

For the majority of the season, yes, but towards the very last few games it can be reasonable to adopt a high risk, high reward strategy if it's the only way to gain the points you need to get to a certain position. In general differentials only differentiate you by lowering your points total, and it's certainly silly when people on some of the forums massively prioritize players with low ownership only halfway through the season. The same goes for the idea of coverage and not having multiple defenders from the same team.