Scottish Independence Referendum is agreed: vote in 2014

[Farnan]

That article is more than 6 months old...

[In3x]

Something which has hardly been reported in the press, is a growing movement favouring independence in Shetland and Orkney should Scotland vote Yes. Both have very good grounds for independence having only been part of Scotland since 1469, when they were pledged by King Christian I, in his capacity as King of Norway, as security against the payment of the dowry of his daughter Margaret, betrothed to James III of Scotland.

It should be noted that if they do, Scotland's oil goes with them, making the islands into mini oil states.

It's a shame you are wrong in every single respect. There is no support for this from Shetlanders, if they demand it they are more than welcome to have a referendum but I don't think they will ask for one. Secondly, they wouldn't get the oil anyway.

http://www.ejil.org/pdfs/12/1/505.pdf

ejil = European Journal for International Law

[General Retreat]

One interesting thought to ponder with that one is how the division of assets would work. At the moment, there's some talk of a division of assets by population. Assume we get a yes vote and the UK hasn't made off with any of Scotland's gas or oil assets (extremely unlikely but I can't be bothered to work out compounded percentages), with Orkney and Shetland then also leaving afterwards.

That leaves us with:

• Scotland, population 5,327,700 (est from 2011 census).
• Shetland island group, population 23,000 (est from 2010 data).
• Orkney, population 21,00 (est from 2010 data).

The combined population of both island groups is a paltry 44,000 which gives them a population 0.825% of the mainland. If they're going off population for asset division, that's not pleasant maths. Well, unless you're looking at it from the perspective of inherited debt - I mean, 0.825% of Scotland's national debt would be what, a couple of second-hand packets of cheese and onion crisps, right?

I can't imagine the SNP or whatever party wound up inheriting a hypothetical independent Scotland would allow a tiny group of islanders to walk off with their treasury. It would certainly be hugely amusing and slightly ironic if they refused to acknowledge an islander referendum for financial reasons (Catalonia anyone?).

[Dante Von Hespburg]

And what reforms in westminster can we have except PR system. From what I hear one solution was equal MPs from England, Scotland, Wales and N.Ireland. That for one is preposterous in either house. Also the upper house would be better represented by having experts in the field to me appointed. Have the top doctors look over medical laws. Scientists on Science etc. Yes the Lords needs a change but 2 elected houses would just end up fighting each other especially if one is labour and the other is conservative.

I think your thinking about reform in the wrong context my friend- The big changes needed and being talked about are those involving the change of Westminster in terms of the UK's centralization being reversed, and devolved powers to regional governments, and devolved parliaments. It would lead to far better political representation, along with greater economic prosperity as local government can target spending and investment more effectively in their regions. The UK needs economic rebalance and this is the way to get it.

Of course if i'm mistaken and you were merely responding to the context of the former point, my apologies (i'm knackered here, whole day of revising in books is making my head quite fuzzy!)

[caratacus]

It's a shame you are wrong in every single respect. There is no support for this from Shetlanders, if they demand it they are more than welcome to have a referendum but I don't think they will ask for one. Secondly, they wouldn't get the oil anyway.

http://www.ejil.org/pdfs/12/1/505.pdf ejil = European Journal for International Law

Shetland islanders have always been very much aware of their own identity quite distinct from mainland Scotland I wouldn't be surprised at all if they vote for independence. After all it was thought that people in cities like Glasgow wouldn't entertain voting with the SNP but the polls have revealed quite the opposite.

As to the oil, those reserves east of Scotland have been proven to be near the end of their extraction life. However the fields near Shetland and have yet to be properly surveyed and hold the future for extraction.
http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php...shetland-visit

Shetland also has a Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael. who favours the Union and Shetlanders have had a Liberal MP since 1950's! Whilst the political composition of Shetland Council is 22 Independents making it one of only three Councils in Scotland with a majority of elected members not representing a political party.

[Condottiere 40K]

They could try and opt for Crown Dependency status.

Assuming they want to stay as part of the UK.

[Farnan]

They could try and opt for Crown Dependency status.

Assuming they want to stay as part of the UK.

Crown Depedencies are not part of the UK.

[In3x]

Shetland islanders have always been very much aware of their own identity quite distinct from mainland Scotland I wouldn't be surprised at all if they vote for independence. After all it was thought that people in cities like Glasgow wouldn't entertain voting with the SNP but the polls have revealed quite the opposite.

As to the oil, those reserves east of Scotland have been proven to be near the end of their extraction life. However the fields near Shetland and have yet to be properly surveyed and hold the future for extraction.
http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php...shetland-visit

You'll notice that the field is around 50 miles west of Shetland which is a larger number than 12.

I'd be amazed if the Shetlanders voted to leave an independent Scotland, they would be of course welcome to have that vote. So far 1,000 people have signed this petition, which is less than 5% of the voting population, not much of a mandate compared to the almost 50% of voters who voted for SNP. If there is a big push for these islands to remain in the UK post Yes then they will be offered a referendum.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

New poll of 2 hours ago gives the NO vote a lead again by 6 points- The Union may scrape through after all at this rate...somehow.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...l-no-vote-lead

A new opinion poll on Scottish independence has found the no vote back in the lead at 53% of voters, suggesting the sudden surge in backing for independence has subsided.Only days after a spate of polls suggested the referendum race was neck and neck, the Survation poll for the Daily Record has found that the no vote is now at 53%, giving the pro-UK campaign a six point gap over yes.
That is the same margin given by Survation two months ago. Including the 10% of voters still to decide, the survey of 1,000 voters found that 47.6% plan to vote no on 18 September, with 42.4% voting yes.
Earlier this week, a YouGov poll for the Times found that the yes vote was in the lead for the first time by two points but Survation's findings – leaked on Wednesday several hours before they were due to be published – suggest that Scottish public opinion is far more unpredictable.
Sterling rallied to its highest point of the day against the US dollar after the Survation poll was released.
The pound hit $1.6189, up 0.4% on Tuesday night's close, after another day of jittery trading in the City of London.
Earlier in the day sterling had slumped to a new 10-month low of $1.6051, amid speculation that Survation might show the yes campaign closing the gap.
Survation is widely seen as being more favourable to the yes vote, so its latest findings will give comfort to the no campaign after David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg abandoned their normal routines at Westminster to head north to campaign for a no vote.

The polling company is one typically seen as pro-Independence too, so it's of some comfort.

Also due to this the markets are back up... anyone else think financial markets panic and scare far too easily? The pounds now back up due to the 6% lead... You begin to question really if most of the recessions and slumps are absolutely necessary, of if their caused by easily panicked stock market boys who haven't the sense to hold off through troubled times and ride it out.

I hate economists sometimes...

[Poach]

BBC news tonight has said Standard Life is officially moving parts of their business south, Lloyds is preparing to move in the event of a Yes, and so too is RBS. So much for competing with London for financial services: even the banks Scotland has are falling over each other to get out.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

BBC news tonight has said Standard Life is officially moving parts of their business south, Lloyds is preparing to move in the event of a Yes, and so too is RBS. So much for competing with London for financial services: even the banks Scotland have are falling over each other to get out.

Slightly awkward for us now... if as the polls say the stay in the UK now, we'll have damaged our economy for nothing and lost out to 'The City'.

Great.

[In3x]

BBC news tonight has said Standard Life is officially moving parts of their business south, Lloyds is preparing to move in the event of a Yes, and so too is RBS. So much for competing with London for financial services: even the banks Scotland has are falling over each other to get out.

I am watching Newsnight as well, they said they would move brass plaques, but have not said what operations would be moving. Not saying that moving the headquarters is not a big deal, but I don't think they are going to wholesale move everyone out of Scotland.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

I am watching Newsnight as well, they said they would move brass plaques, but have not said what operations would be moving. Not saying that moving the headquarters is not a big deal, but I don't think they are going to wholesale move everyone out of Scotland.

I'm not watching the news currently but from what you've said mate, where your headquarters are, is where the company actually pay's it's main corporate and business rates too (i.e. it'll be now registered under the UK- hence the whole Google and other Companies scandal if you remember- who had their HQ in Ireland and Switzerland because the raters were cheaper). So in essence an independent Scotland's economy is starting to lose out already here.

Especially if they focus their attentions even more on a more populous rUK due to the larger markets. It's not great for us hearing this.

[Basil II the B.S]

Also due to this the markets are back up... anyone else think financial markets panic and scare far too easily? The pounds now back up due to the 6% lead... You begin to question really if most of the recessions and slumps are absolutely necessary, of if their caused by easily panicked stock market boys who haven't the sense to hold off through troubled times and ride it out.

I hate economists sometimes...

Markets tend to make self-fullfilling prophecies.
EG. you expect a market crash and sell, but everyone does the same so the market actually crashes while the movement would have been actually minimal without everyone panicking.

[hellheaven1987]

But if Scotland remains in Union British cannot vote "leaving EU", so I don't see why not just let Scotland left now.

[In3x]

I'm not watching the news currently but from what you've said mate, where your headquarters are, is where the company actually pay's it's main corporate and business rates too (i.e. it'll be now registered under the UK- hence the whole Google and other Companies scandal if you remember- who had their HQ in Ireland and Switzerland because the raters were cheaper). So in essence an independent Scotland's economy is starting to lose out already here.

Especially if they focus their attentions even more on a more populous rUK due to the larger markets. It's not great for us hearing this.

If the headquarters are always moving to London why then was Google's headquarters in Ireland? Could Scotland not do something similar?

[Dante Von Hespburg]

But if Scotland remains in Union British cannot vote "leaving EU", so I don't see why not just let Scotland left now.

I think from what little i'm gleaming reading articles about the sudden change is that it's close, but seems like a No lead again due to the message of 'wait and see' Salmond by promising that if the UK exits the EU may have rather shot himself in the foot this time around, as now we in Scotland can vote to remain the Union- see Westminster fall over themselves to give us greater devolved powers... and if they fail on that and the UK also exits the EU- Salmond and co will kick up a fuss again in 3 years time and you have referendum mark 2... Not quite happy about that (though i think a UK that leaves the EU entirely is something that may make me change my mind in terms of voting actually).

So message to the UK is Westminster is basically- Give Scotland serious and extensive devolved powers as you've promised (and that has probably helped swing the vote back a bit more) AND make sure to heck that the UK doesn't leave the EU. Otherwise we're probably looking at the break-up of two Unions on the same day. The UK to stay together and retain their 'sovereignty' and integrity leaves the EU....then Scotland ironically leaves the newly independent UK due to this.

If the headquarters are always moving to London why then was Google's headquarters in Ireland? Could Scotland not do something similar?

Sure they could indeed my friend. Offer a competitive market or indeed competitive business rates (though there are issues like the Google incident in which a company doing most of it's business in one country but HQing in another has to pay anyway- and i can't see these companies doing more business in Scotland than the rUK simply due to the rUK market size compared to ours).

But it is possible anyway to try and stop these places moving. The thing is in this case...it's already happening. So it's too late. Edinburgh was always going to struggle in all fairness against London for foreign investment- just like every other city in the UK does and will. A big part of it is the fact that London is basically a city state of it's own, it's economy accounts for a massively disproportionate percentage of the UK total. Just for some idea:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/...her-uk-regions

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-25879681

Indeed many economists have argued that actually the UK holds London back, as it drags the rest of us along behind it economically. It's a heck of a prospect to try and compete in the financial or service ssector with them.

And independent Scotland would be far better off trying to find it's own economic niche (perhaps manufacturing somehow) than compete with London on it's own terms.

[nemgod]

I think your thinking about reform in the wrong context my friend- The big changes needed and being talked about are those involving the change of Westminster in terms of the UK's centralization being reversed, and devolved powers to regional governments, and devolved parliaments. It would lead to far better political representation, along with greater economic prosperity as local government can target spending and investment more effectively in their regions. The UK needs economic rebalance and this is the way to get it.

Of course if i'm mistaken and you were merely responding to the context of the former point, my apologies (i'm knackered here, whole day of revising in books is making my head quite fuzzy!)

If you mean devolution max to all areas of the UK including regions of England then I would agree whole heartedly. Personally for the UK, England is too big to be given a same level of devolution as Wales, N.Ireland and Scotland. England can be split up into many regions of equal population of Scotland, or between the levels of Scotland and London. Less powers from Westminster to regional governments can only be a good thing. Leave maybe defense and foreign policy to Westminster and give more powers to say Edingborough, Cardiff, Belfast and what ever the regional capitals become if the regions are made.

[Stavroforos]

A very valid point, i think the big reason for this take on Independence by the Yes campaign, is because typically Scot's don't really want to leave the Union. But feel that for political change, they have no choice- We don't want a different state- we want a 'Better' state. And that's the vision the Yes campaign has been selling it's not 'well suffer hardships, but we'll be free to forge our own destiny' the rhetoric from the Yes side is actually more 'you can have what you have now AND more, AND it'll be a fairer system where we have more powers'.

Again this rather stems from the fact that actually devolution was THE most popular option originally. What we're seeing now is for the vast majority there seems to basically be the perception the Unions failure to capitalize on that fact, the Unionist failure to make a serious argument in terms of what the UK will offer Scotland, and to seriously comment (until now at the last minute really) on serious levels of devolution, Independence seems the only way to go.

In these terms as i said, i hope the Union side wins out...but they won't deserve the victory...infact they should whatever the outcome be appalled at their ineptness and how they've been pretty much highlighted that the perception of Westminster to be totally accurate- meaning the demand for serious devolved powers MUST be met..

And of course now they've left it open that even if the Union win, if the UK chooses to leave the EU, we'll be having this same debate all over again in 3 years time.

I understand the desire for reform, and that seems to be what most Scotlanders want, but they're confusing reform with independence. The lack of nationalist rhetoric just make it seem as though it's a company talking about whether they want to split one of their divisions or something.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

If you mean devolution max to all areas of the UK including regions of England then I would agree whole heartedly. Personally for the UK, England is too big to be given a same level of devolution as Wales, N.Ireland and Scotland. England can be split up into many regions of equal population of Scotland, or between the levels of Scotland and London. Less powers from Westminster to regional governments can only be a good thing. Leave maybe defense and foreign policy to Westminster and give more powers to say Edingborough, Cardiff, Belfast and what ever the regional capitals become if the regions are made.

I think i love you bro (no homo).

That's actually exactly what i suggested quite some time ago in this thread- a more federalistic approach to the UK with Westminster retaining defense, foreign policy and a Federal supplementary budget (For those regions that may need it) and the rest of the UK split into Scotland, Northumbria, Mercia, Wessex, Wales and N.Ireland, all with devo-max powers over their investment, taxes and economies etc. London ideally would be made a city state since as i said it's economy would arguably be better off that way (also London + Wessex would be unduly a power-block).

So i totally agree with you there mate.

EDIT:

I understand the desire for reform, and that seems to be what most Scotlanders want, but they're confusing reform with independence. The lack of nationalist rhetoric just make it seem as though it's a company talking about whether they want to split one of their divisions or something.

Just caught your reply Stav, i know what you mean, and actually agree. I think though for many Scots it was seen (and sold as) perhaps the only way to get change out of the UK, is to leave it. Though it appears the last ditch concrete offer (finally!) by Westminster for serious reform has managed to give the Unionist camp back it's lead.

I hope they remember how close this is though still and not get complacent again now.