If Grouchy arrived behind Blucher

[Pokelover22]

Say that Grouchy wasn't as cautious as he was in real life. Say that he did "hound" Blucher. Now let's say that Blucher still arrived at Waterloo, but Grouchy came up behind him (effectively making a Prussian sandwich on two pieces of French bread). Since Wellington's entire plan was counting on Blucher arriving and old Bonnie getting no support, do you think that Napoleon could have been victorious? What about in the long run, do you think that Napoleon would make peace or seek to quell the allies once and for all? What if Blucher and Wellington were captured, or even worse killed? I personally feel that Napoleon would gain massive support throughout his empire. Furthermore, I think that this new sense of national unity would swell the numbers of the Grand Armee. A naval invasion of Britain would still be out of the question, unless Napoleon could throw together a fleet of heavy ships of the line. I believe that the Britons would be quick to make peace and maybe the Austrians. But I think that the Prussians and Russians would continue the coalition.

[money]

I'd say that Napoleon could have defeated Wellington if Blucher never shows or if Grouchy shows up behind Wellington. If Napoleon utterly crushes Blucher and Wellington then Britain will probably not want to send another army or even better, not want to fight. The French would probably support Napoleon more and there might be more unity in France. Prussia would take a while to build a new army and if Russia does come to help out then Prussia will probably want to keep fighting. Right after Waterloo, Napoleon would overrun the Netherlands and then maybe Hanover. He might go on Berlin but more likely turn back to fight Austria who are currently invading France and Napoleon might go into Italy. Spain and Portugal will probably not want to fight anymore (especially since neithe even mobilized an army). Due to Napoleon's political marriage with Marie Louise I think Austria and France can agree on something if Napoleon leaves Rome alone (or perhaps the Austrians will allow baby Napoleon to rule it) and they decide to keep Murat as a vassal in Naples for both of them. Britain and Austria are both at political odds with Russia and Prussia, so I think that if Napoleon restricts himself to France and the land west of the Rhine then an anti Prussian-Russian coalition is possible with Austria (maybe Britain too unless they stay neutral, as it is in their interest to keep Prussia from overcoming Austria and Russia from invading the orient and becoming the dominant power in Europe). If Napoleon takes out Prussia and gives it to Austria and leaves Hanover to Britain and the rest of the German states as vassals for France and Austria (he could probably also make Poland a buffer state against Russia for Austria and France) then I think that Austria, France and Britain could all make an agreement to keep Russia and Prussia from becoming too powerful.

[Pokelover22]

Precisely, in their weakened state, the Prussians would be vulnerable to a Russian invasion. If they so pleased, the Russians could push west with their numerically superior army and maybe conquer Prussia, possibly initiating a large global scale conflict involving not just Europe. Perhaps the fledgling US would want to aid France, especially after all that debt that they owed to France. A First World War in essence, without the Japan.