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Thread: Russia vs Germany..who would win?

  1. #21
    hellheaven1987's Avatar Comes Domesticorum
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    Default Re: Russia vs Germany..who would win?

    But the situiation is, USSR invaded Poland. Polishs knew they would surely lose the war if there was no helps. A silly policy could not promise a survive of Poland. The only way was asking helps from Allies. However, UK and France couldn't help Poland directly, and they didn't want to confront with USSR, as their people won't support that. The best indirect way was asking Germany to help Poland, with full support from UK and France. It could help Allies to solve two problems - the increasing of Germany power and USSR power. Allies won't need to use their own strength to solve this two big problems. Therefore the Allies would tell Polishs to ask help from Germany as they won't give any direct help. In the same time, Allies would persuade Hitler that he was doing some "holy thing" to crusade USSR, which would easily lead the Germany to the war as the threat of East Prussia. The Polish would also have no choice but to follow the way of Allies if they wanted to survive.
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  2. #22
    Seleucus I Nicator's Avatar Campidoctor
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    Default Re: Russia vs Germany..who would win?

    I doubt there would be any chance of a war between Russia and Germany in 1938. During 1941, as the Germans were massing at the German-Russian border, Stalin ignored it because he wanted peace; he did not want to fight until Russia was fully prepared. So I doubt Stalin would want to take offensive actions against Hitler in 1938.

    But if a war took place in 1938 after all, I think Russia would have won; Germany had to worry about war with France, Britain and Poland, while Russia only had small nations on its border, unlikely to attack them (except Poland, but I'm assuming they would be allied to the Russians in this sort of scenario).

    The only way I could see the Germans winning, would be if Russia attacked Poland and the war there lasted for quite a time, while Germany wiped out France meanwhile then turned against Russia. I still think Russia would have had the largest chance of winning, though.

  3. #23
    hellheaven1987's Avatar Comes Domesticorum
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    Default Re: Russia vs Germany..who would win?

    I really doubt that France and UK would join the attack. In fact, they didn't like USSR more than Germany, same as USSR (because Russia Civil War, the Allies supported the White Government indirectly-supplying arm and money.). Hence, if USSR really really started the war, which I think is totally impossible unless Stalin was too silly, the Allies would not engage the war, probably they even hope Germany and USSR would use full force to kick eachothers butt, and it was not important who won or lost, as the Allies would attack the remain one and destoryed it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Markas View Post
    Hellheaven, sometimes you remind me of King Canute trying to hold back the tide, except without the winning parable.
    Quote Originally Posted by Diocle View Post
    Cameron is midway between Black Rage and .. European Union ..

  4. #24
    cegorach's Avatar Artifex
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    Default Re: Russia vs Germany..who would win?

    Quote Originally Posted by hellheaven1987
    But the situiation is, USSR invaded Poland. Polishs knew they would surely lose the war if there was no helps. A silly policy could not promise a survive of Poland. The only way was asking helps from Allies. However, UK and France couldn't help Poland directly, and they didn't want to confront with USSR, as their people won't support that. The best indirect way was asking Germany to help Poland, with full support from UK and France. It could help Allies to solve two problems - the increasing of Germany power and USSR power. Allies won't need to use their own strength to solve this two big problems. Therefore the Allies would tell Polishs to ask help from Germany as they won't give any direct help. In the same time, Allies would persuade Hitler that he was doing some "holy thing" to crusade USSR, which would easily lead the Germany to the war as the threat of East Prussia. The Polish would also have no choice but to follow the way of Allies if they wanted to survive.


    Ok. You make the assumption that:

    The Allies abandon Czechoslovakia as in reality.
    The SU attacks Poland.

    Conclusion - it is IMPOSSIBLE.
    Why the Su would attack Poland it there was no war in Europe which could divert Polish and Romanian troops.
    Besides waging war in 1938 makes no sense - the purges were still in motion and the Red Army wasn't capable to launch an offensive just check the Soviet-Japanese fighting records from 1938.
    One weak division without any real anti-tank weaponry stopped 2 times bigger Soviet forces.
    On larger scale the problems of the Soviet army would be increased 10-fold.

    Besides WHY THE HELL THE RED ARMY WOULD ATTACK POLAND IN 1938 IF CZECHOSLOVAKIA WOULDN'T DEFEND ?

    If it did and the Red Army was mobilised Poland would remain neutral against Germany - having 2 front war isn't the best experience.
    So overall France enters war vs. Germany so does the UK, Poland remains neutral if Soviet forces are mobilised. If the SU attacks Romania declares war vs. the SU and you have Germany defeated in 1938 and Poland and Romania holding the line against the Red Army which ends with Hitler defeated and some sort of cold war between the SU and the rest of the world.:original:
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  5. #25

    Default Re: Russia vs Germany..who would win?

    Quote Originally Posted by Valdemar
    Fact 3)

    This question also ignores all the political instability and polarization that was occurring in Europe at the time. Only the most stable countries were able to avoid falling into dictatorship. Poland had a right-wing coup. Rumania's King was a figure head controled by pro-Fascists. Czechoslovakia was politically very fragile and the government there paralyzed by morally weak leaders.
    The picture is a little bit different. In 1938 the Romanian King Carol (Charles) II was the ruler of the country. His regime was known as " the Royal Dictatorship". The political parties had been recently dissolved and the pro-Fascist leaders were all in jail or into hiding. After Czechoslovakia was dismembered the King ordered the pro-Fascist leaders killed because he feared the Germans would use them to overthrow him. Therefore during the Czechoslovak crisis the Romanian government was actually very strong. Only the collapse of France in June 1940 and the loss of Northern Transylvania and Bessarabia ruined the popularity of King Charles II and resulted in his forced abdication.

    While the Romanian government feared the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia was a military ally. When the Stalin offered troops to defend Czechoslovakia the Poles refused access through their territory but Romania stated it migh grant it provided:
    1) Czechoslovakia accepts the Soviet offer;
    2) A satisfactory arrangement is reached with the Soviet Union.
    The Czechoslovak government didn't accept the Soviet aid and turned instead to the British and the French.

    In hindsight it is hard to be sure Stalin would have followed through with the promissed aid or that he would have not invaded Romania once military access through the norhtern part of the country would have been granted. All we can do is to weight the possible options.

    A: If the theory Stalin intended to invade Europe in 1941 - 1942 is true, then he had every interest in keeping Germany weak (thus denying Hitler the Czechoslovakian industry) and in preventing a coalition among France, Brittain and Germany (something that would have happened immediately had he invaded Romania in 1938).

    B: If Stalin didn't intend to invade Europe then again it would have been in his best interest to protect Czechoslovakia and not to antagonize France, Brittain and Germany.

    Either way it looks to me quite likely that he might have sent the Red Army to Czechoslovakia without causing too much inconvenience to Romania. It is hard to imagine Hitler would have then followed through with his threats or that he would have been able to remain in power long after the Soviet intervention. After all the first plot to depose Hitler was hatched by the German generals on the very occasion of the Czechoslovak crisis.

    By intervening in the politics of Central Europe Stalin would have gained a lot of goodwill with France, Brittain and the Western democracies. That would have probably resulted in better economic relations, something that would have further accelerated the development of the Soviet Union. Such an economic development would have either make a future Soviet invasion instoppable or would have convinced Stalin that Communism and Capitalism can really coexist.
    Quote Originally Posted by Valdemar
    Fact 4)

    Just about every state surrounding Czechoslovakia had territorial claims on her. Mainly from Germany, Hungary and Rumanian, but the Poles were bitterly disputing the boundry around some extremely rich coal deposits and almost went to war over them a couple of times.
    Things are a bit different again. Romania had absolutely no territorial claims against Czechoslovakia. More than being a good neighbor, Romania was a formal military ally being part of the Little Entente (Romania + Czechoslovakia + Yugoslavia) Romania had initiated as early as 1920.
    Quote Originally Posted by Valdemar
    Fact 5)

    So there is no way. No way. That the Poles or Rumanians would allow the Soviets to transit across their territory to help another anti-Communist, pro-western, democratic state like Czechoslovakia.
    Actually the Romanians might have allowed the transit of the Red Army troops had the Czechoslovak government accepted Stalin's offer. The Czechoslovak government didn't accept the Soviet aid and the rest is...history
    The Little Entente was directed only against the restauration of Austria-Hungary therefore could not have been invoked in the Czechoslovak crisis except in case Hungary would have attacked Czechoslovakia (by that time Austria had ceased to exist as the result of the Anschluss).

    While not protecting Czechoslovakia against a German attack, the Little Entente was nevertheless helping the Czechoslovaks to concentrate their armies only against Hitler.

    Quote Originally Posted by Valdemar
    As for who would win in a contest between Germany and Czechoslovakia in 1938, it is clear that German victory was inevitable. Yes, Germany's Army was ill-equipped and small at the time, but still able to overwhelm the Czechs and Slovaks. The only question really is how much time would it have taken, and how costly would it have been for the Germans in men and material. On the second point, I think the Czechs would have bloodied the Germans pretty badly. Their entire border with Germany and Austria was heavily fortified in rugged hills (low mountains, really) and they had good equipment - as good as the Germans had at the time. They only area where the Czech military was obviouosly weak was their airforce. Their airforce was small and they were using several home-grown types that were years behind the Germans in technology and performance. The Poles were able to inflict heavy casualties on the Germans despite their rapid collapse and I believe it would've been worse for the Germans versus the Czechs.
    It's less likely Hitler would have attack in face of a determined Czechoslovak government. The worst mistake of the Czechoslovak government was to accept the "arbitration". They had a valid defence treaty with France and France would have been forced to intervene in case of a war. By accepting the "arbitrage" they gave France an excuse not to intervene.
    A much better attitude would have been to state that the country's borders are non-negotiable and to offer instead more cultural rights to the German minority. Once it was impossible to claim the Germans are persecuted there was no ground for Germany to request an "arbitrage" anymore and no reason for Brittain nor for France to hasten to provide one.
    Quote Originally Posted by Valdemar
    To me, the real lesson to learn here is not some "What if" crap that this board is so famous for. It is to LEARN from the past. Europe was weak morally and politically in the face of an evil ideology, a belligerant people, and a certifiably sociopathic dictator. Sound familiar? It should. It is exactly what is happening in Europe today with the advance of Islamism. All we need now is some leftist Euro-crat waving a piece of paper proclaiming, "Peace in our time", like Neville Chamberlain did.

    Valdemar
    He, he, not so fast! There is no leader of all the European Muslims nor an identifiable radical Islamic master plan. The majority of the Muslim population in Europe is not radical either.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB MareNostrum

  6. #26

    Default Re: Russia vs Germany..who would win?

    Quote Originally Posted by cegorach
    So overall France enters war vs. Germany so does the UK, Poland remains neutral if Soviet forces are mobilised. If the SU attacks Romania declares war vs. the SU and you have Germany defeated in 1938 and Poland and Romania holding the line against the Red Army which ends with Hitler defeated and some sort of cold war between the SU and the rest of the world.:original:
    I think you're quite right about Soviet Union not having any incentive to attack Poland in 1938.

    1.The Red Army was not at its best fighting capability (and if we are to believe Suvorov this is why Stalin had initiated the purges not the result of the purges) and it took a great general (Zhukov) and overwhelming equipment and troops for the Red Army to defeat the Japanese in the 1938 Mongolian war;
    2. Attacking Poland would have resulted in a war against France and Great Brittain + war on several fronts (against the Japanese and also against a potential Franco-British attack in Caucasus and in Central Asia);
    3. Poland and Romania had a military alliance against the Soviet Union. The Romanians would have gone to war against the Soviet Union.
    - The Romanian-Soviet border on the Nistru river was easy to defend, the Romanians holding the higher bank. King Charles II of Romania was forced by his army to abdicate in 1940 among other things because he accepted to give Stalin Bessarabia without firing a single shot. The Romanian officers thought they could repell a Soviet invasion or at least to make it very costly.
    - The Polish border was also marshy and covered with forests in many areas, therefore not exactly accessible either.
    While probably Romania and Poland would not have won a long war alone against the Soviet Union, they actually didn't have to. They only needed to inflict heavy losses to the invader and then wait for a Japanese-Franco-British intervention.

    We need to keep in mind that with a determined Czechoslovak government the Germans would have not attacked, out of fear of going at war with France. The Germans would not have attacked Poland either in case of a Polish-Soviet war for the same reasons. The German army at the time was inferior to the French one.

    Besides, Hitler would have been better off by actually joining a war against the Soviet Union and by sending an expeditionary force either through Finland (not so likely) or through Romania (quite likely - lenghty explanation later on). Being part of the coalition that erradicated Bolshevism would have made him quite popular with the Western democracies (especially the British toyed a bit with that idea). He would have probably got a lot of economic concessions in return from the newly independent Ukraine and Belarus and from non-communist Russia for the very reason those states would have needed a counterweight to Poland and Romania (and maybe to Turkey as well).

    Romania would have probably honored its obligations from the Polish-Romanian treaty without fearing too much a Hungarian attack because of its Little Entente treaty. The Hungarians were on very bad terms with all the other Little Entente countries (Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia) which made at least an Yugoslav attack almost guaranteed (assuming the Czechoslovakian army would have been concentrated at the German border thus not available for important operations against Hungary). Besides Hungary would not have moved without German support. And Romania had something Germany wanted really badly: oil.

    Besides oil, Romania could have offered Germany a springboard for the invasion of the Soviet Union thus guaranteeing Hitler a seat at the peace talks once the war against the Soviet Union was over. And I've explained before why Hitler would have very much welcomed an opportunity to build close relationships with the countries that would have resulted from the desintegration of the Soviet Union. And I have also explained why those countres themselves would have probably welcomed closer ties with Germany.

    Give all the above I think cegorach is right that Stalin would have not attacked Poland nor Romania in 1938 in order to force access to Czechoslovakia.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB MareNostrum

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