View Poll Results: Do you believe David Cameron will remain Conservative Party Leader by 2015?

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Thread: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

  1. #1

    Default Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    The men in grey suits may be out for David Cameron as confidence in his ability to win the party the next general election shrinks. Apparently, according to the Sunday Times and the Conservativehome Blog a 'rebel reserve' of at least 55 MP's has been gathered in preparation of a leadership challenge. The number required to trigger such a challenge is a mere 46. If the party will commit regicide, the question is whom will be willing to seize Cameron's crown? Speculation grows.

    In my humble opinion it will only be possible for the Conservatives to stand any chance of achieving a majority in the House of Commons at the next election if they deal with the serious threat of UKIP. This could either be done by lurching to the right on issues such as immigration and Europe, though risking loosing the support of more moderate supports, by negotiating a bargain with UKIP, or by sitting out and crossing their fingers that the economy will be better by the time of the election - unlikely. It will only be possible for the Tories to strike any sort of agreement with Nigel Farage and his party if they ditch Cameron. If this is not done then both parties will lose out and it will almost be certain that Milibean and his band of lefties will be the better for it and win government.


    I leave you with the blog post from Conservativehome and an article from the Independent.




    "Rebel reserve" of 55 Conservative MPs "is being gathered for Cameron leadership challenge"

    By Paul Goodman



    The Sunday Times reports behind its paywall that:

    "An increasing number of backbenchers are privately discussing the possibility of attempting to unseat the prime minister before the poll in 2015 if the party continues to trail in the polls.

    For the first time, discussions about ousting Cameron before 2015 appear to be spreading beyond the so-called “usual suspects” — a hard core of about 20 backbenchers who are hostile to his leadership."


    It also claims that:

    • Up to 17 MPs had now written letters of “no confidence” to Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922 Committee.
    • A “rebel reserve”, comprised of about 55 MPs ready to write simultaneously to Brady, chairman of the 1922 backbench committee, is being gathered. 46 signatures are needed to trigger a ballot.
    • Their names are being held by a co-ordinating MP who has obtained firm pledges from them to act at the same time.
    • Reasons for dissatisfaction include same-sex marriage, the EU and - above all - the state of the polls and prospects for the next election.

    Hmm.

    I've heard similar talk within the last six months - but, although Cameron's leadership has been at risk since the boundary review, 17 MPs is only about 5% of the Parliamentary Party.

    And at least 5% of Tory MPs are always unhappy about something or other. There is no serious disaffection with the Prime Minister at Cabinet level, and no obvious successor.

    My view of a challenge is to ask: Is this the Conservative Party or the Judean People's Front? (Or the People's Front of Judea?)

    A push for a ballot would be particularly maladroit given the likelihood of an In/Out pledge in the Prime Minister's EU speech - "within days", according to the Observer.

    None the less, there hasn't been a leadership challenge story for some time, and the appearance of this one is worth noting.










    Tory MPs plot leadership challenge to Cameron
    Right-wing opposition grows as critics claim PM could be ousted if slump continues

    David Cameron's leadership was under fresh pressure last night following claims that 14 Tory MPs have backed calls to remove him.

    The Spectator magazine reported that the group had written to Graham Brady, the chairman of the party's backbench 1922 Committee, asking for a leadership challenge. The number is well short of the 46 required to trigger a contest, but it is a new indication of the growing hostility to the Prime Minister among some of his own MPs.

    Some Tory critics believe he could be at his most vulnerable next year if there is little sign of economic recovery and the party is languishing in the polls.

    A Conservative MP recently revealed he had been approached by two backbenchers asking him to mount a "stalking horse" challenge to Mr Cameron, while speculation has intensified that Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London, is preparing the ground for a return to the Commons – and an eventual tilt at the leadership.

    Mr Brady refused to be drawn on the report, but said: "Nobody else apart from me would know whether it's true or not and I haven't spoken to anyone."

    Meanwhile, The Independent understands that the Prime Minister is about to signal a major retreat on plans to redraw Britain's parliamentary map by the 2015 general election, which would have handed a major advantage to the Conservatives. The moves to cut the number of seats from 650 to 600 are being opposed by the Liberal Democrats after the Tories pulled the plug on House of Lords reforms.

    Although Mr Cameron insisted last month that he was pressing ahead with the proposals, he is preparing to authorise Tory constituency parties in marginal seats to select candidates on existing, rather than proposed, boundaries.

    The announcement will be seen as a recognition that the Government will not be able to drive the proposals on to the statute book.

    A well-placed Tory source said: "It makes sense – Labour and the Lib Dems are starting to select on the old boundaries and we can't afford to get left behind."

    The latest monthly poll of polls for The Independent puts Tory support on 33 per cent in August (unchanged), eight points behind Labour on 41 per cent (down one). The Liberal Democrats are on 12 per cent (up one).

    John Curtice, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who compiled the "poll of polls," calculated that the figures would give Ed Miliband an overall majority of 90 on the old boundaries – but 76 if the next election is fought on the revised boundaries.

    Mr Cameron also faces a new challenge with the launch of a parliamentary campaign for a referendum on EU membership – a move opposed by the Tory leadership. Although it is aimed at MPs of all parties, it is likely to attract the highest levels of support from eurosceptics on the Conservative benches and could be a new focus for internal dissent.

    Its founder, the Tory MP John Baron said: "Our objective is to pressure the Government and the political establishment generally to allow the country its say as to our membership of the EU."

    Another rebellion is brewing against the Prime Minister over his commitment to same-sex marriages, with some Conservatives saying the measure has provoked more anger among Tory members than any other issue. Although there is little doubt that the planned legislation will be passed with Labour and Liberal Democrat support in a free vote, it is becoming a rallying point for Mr Cameron's internal enemies. One said: "No one can really understand why he has invested so much energy on this. There would be uproar in my constituency if I voted in favour."

    I have also added a poll asking whether you believe Cameron will remain the Tory Party leader by the next general election in 2015.
    Last edited by ♖The Balkan Sobranie♖; January 20, 2013 at 07:00 AM.
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  2. #2
    King Gambrinus's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    He's already secured his pension, and probably doesn't care if he gets re-elected. They're a bunch of ideologically driven weasels who are out of touch with reality. It won't last.
    Fear not, crusader, Prester John will save you from the wrath of the Devil.

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    Pielstick's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    He'll still be the leader simply because the only Tory with any popular support among the electorate is Boris, and he's the Mayor of London and not an MP.

    It's also quite interesting to see it's 2013 and the issue of Europe is *still* splitting the Conservative Party.

    Cameron got the proverbial poisoned chalice when he moved into Number 10. Dealing with the defecit was going to leave anyone deeply unpopular with the electorate. In the meantime Labour are playing to the old class war agenda and are making up ground. I sincerely hope the British voter has a long enough memory span to remember who got us into this mess in the first place.


  4. #4

    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    Tories that have no idea what to do with the EU issue and keep changing leader over it. Nothing new here. It has been like this since Major.

  5. #5
    The Great Montrose's Avatar Senator
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    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pielstick View Post
    He'll still be the leader simply because the only Tory with any popular support among the electorate is Boris, and he's the Mayor of London and not an MP.

    It's also quite interesting to see it's 2013 and the issue of Europe is *still* splitting the Conservative Party.

    Cameron got the proverbial poisoned chalice when he moved into Number 10. Dealing with the defecit was going to leave anyone deeply unpopular with the electorate. In the meantime Labour are playing to the old class war agenda and are making up ground. I sincerely hope the British voter has a long enough memory span to remember who got us into this mess in the first place.
    Margaret Thatcher?......
    the dream will never die


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  6. #6

    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    I cant see who would replace David Cameron as the party leader - the party isnt exactly brimming with charismatic leadership material, but then again I suppose neither is Labours current leader. I dont think they will be able to depose him as party leader, so I imagine he will be the person fighting the next election for the Tories.

    Also I found this line in that first quote quite amusing "A push for a ballot would be particularly maladroit given the likelihood of an In/Out pledge in the Prime Minister's EU speech - "within days", according to the Observer." Its a useless gesture if he is promising it for after the next election since he wont be in power by that time. I would hope such a promise wouldnt do too much to increase his support either considering he promised a referendum on the EU before he was elected the first time and never fulfilled it. (People would be stupid to trust him to keep his word a second time)


    Quote Originally Posted by Armchair Revolutionary View Post
    He's already secured his pension, and probably doesn't care if he gets re-elected. They're a bunch of ideologically driven weasels who are out of touch with reality. It won't last.
    I dont think he cares about his pension considering he is already a multi-millionaire.

    Quote Originally Posted by Basil II the B.S View Post
    Tories that have no idea what to do with the EU issue and keep changing leader over it. Nothing new here. It has been like this since Major.
    I imagine holding a referendum on the EU before the next election would be all he needs to do to claw back a large amount of support from UKIP and at least give him the chance to make a fight of the next election.


  7. #7
    King Gambrinus's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    Quote Originally Posted by General Brittanicus View Post
    I dont think he cares about his pension considering he is already a multi-millionaire.
    Figure of speech, he knew he was dead man walking when he realised what he'd got into. Since then he's been thinking about the endgame, not the national interest, nor even the popular support.

    I imagine holding a referendum on the EU before the next election would be all he needs to do to claw back a large amount of support from UKIP and at least give him the chance to make a fight of the next election.
    The Tories' only hope is in the shape of New Labour, who are just as bad as the Tories.

    Britain is in dire need of political revolution.
    Fear not, crusader, Prester John will save you from the wrath of the Devil.

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    Pielstick's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    Quote Originally Posted by andysmfc13 View Post
    Margaret Thatcher?......
    FFS go away and come back when you've got a clue.

    Quote Originally Posted by General Brittanicus View Post
    I cant see who would replace David Cameron as the party leader - the party isnt exactly brimming with charismatic leadership material, but then again I suppose neither is Labours current leader.
    Ironically I think the Two Eds do more for the Tories' prospects than they do for Labour's.


  9. #9
    The Great Montrose's Avatar Senator
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    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pielstick View Post
    FFS go away and come back when you've got a clue.



    Ironically I think the Two Eds do more for the Tories' prospects than they do for Labour's.
    I'm kidding on calm down.
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  10. #10

    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pielstick View Post
    FFS go away and come back when you've got a clue.



    Ironically I think the Two Eds do more for the Tories' prospects than they do for Labour's.
    But in many ways he is right as well as joking. It was her reforms that turned this country into a banking economy that makes us very much one of the most vulnerable when such crisis will hit again. She also damaged a number of areas with the causing of mass unemployment on communities reliant on the mines without any kind of plan to help the same people find meaningful employment in other areas. She basically went out and said "You're all sacked, deal with it."

    Also she brought in the every man for themselves view which now has the people in their 30s and 20s with the whole no such thing as a society. Her mess up will take decades to undo.

  11. #11
    Pielstick's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    We had a thread a while back about her. I suggest you read it.


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    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pielstick View Post
    FFS go away and come back when you've got a clue.
    He's right though. Thatcher and her administration started the trend, New Labour (led by self-confessed Thatcherite) continued it. Anyone still finger pointing at either Labour or Conservative needs to get a clue because the fact is they have both landed us here.
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    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    A Pint of Farrage maybe ?

    I have no idea about UK politics party machinations, but a UKIP-Tory freak anti-Cameron coup would be funny to watch. From what some people are saying it is inevitable for Cameron to lose in one of the next 2 elections because He will either be hit by the recession train or by UKIP train gaining enough margin to hung the Parliament even more. First Past the post doesn't help a lot, but I guess there is nothing illegal about a bunch of Tories MP joining a few UKIP MP elected after causing the Tories to lose a bunch of seats.

    They need to somehow translate their good European Election numbers into Westminster Seats . they are apparently ahead of the Tories in some polls... the "How" is probably make you a very rich electoral strategist.

    Last edited by Menelik_I; January 20, 2013 at 11:54 AM.
    « Le courage est toujours quelque chose de saint, un jugement divin entre deux idées. Défendre notre cause de plus en plus vigoureusement est conforme à la nature humaine. Notre suprême raison d’être est donc de lutter ; on ne possède vraiment que ce qu’on acquiert en combattant. »Ernst Jünger
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  14. #14

    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    Quote Originally Posted by Menelik_I View Post
    A Pint of Farrage maybe ?

    I have no idea about UK politics party machinations, but a UKIP-Tory freak anti-Cameron coup would be funny to watch. From what some people are saying it is inevitable for Cameron to lose in one of the next 2 elections because He will either be hit by the recession train or by UKIP train gaining enough margin to hung the Parliament even more. First Past the post doesn't help a lot, but I guess there is nothing illegal about a bunch of Tories MP joining a few UKIP MP elected after causing the Tories to lose a bunch of seats.

    They need to somehow translate their good European Election numbers into Westminster Seats . they are apparently ahead of the Tories in some polls... the "How" is probably make you a very rich electoral strategist.
    Some polls have UKIP pushing the lib dems into third place in terms of percentage of the vote for the General Election, but I still dont think their support is concentrated enough to win any seats at the next election. They will however cost Dave a good number of seats and will also probably do rather well in the EU elections again. I did like Farages response to Cameron saying that the televised debates should only be for the parties that were going to form the government though:

    Quote Originally Posted by Farage
    If he wants to restrict it to those parties who are likely to form the next government, he’d better not be booking studio time himself.


    Quote Originally Posted by Pielstick View Post

    Ironically I think the Two Eds do more for the Tories' prospects than they do for Labour's.
    Indeed, and yet Milliband will most likely win the next election with a rather large majority I expect unless of course Dave is somehow replaced with somebody more appealing.


  15. #15
    The Great Montrose's Avatar Senator
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    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    Quote Originally Posted by General Brittanicus View Post
    Some polls have UKIP pushing the lib dems into third place in terms of percentage of the vote for the General Election, but I still dont think their support is concentrated enough to win any seats at the next election. They will however cost Dave a good number of seats and will also probably do rather well in the EU elections again. I did like Farages response to Cameron saying that the televised debates should only be for the parties that were going to form the government though:





    Indeed, and yet Milliband will most likely win the next election with a rather large majority I expect unless of course Dave is somehow replaced with somebody more appealing.
    We'll be independent by the next general election meaning labour wont get its Scottish votes.

    Also can anyone tell me any UKIP policies other than the fact their anti-E.U
    the dream will never die


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  16. #16

    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    Quote Originally Posted by andysmfc13 View Post
    Also can anyone tell me any UKIP policies other than the fact their anti-E.U
    And you can't research that for yourself because...?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...Party#Policies
    Et in Arcadia ego.

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  17. #17

    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pielstick View Post
    He'll still be the leader simply because the only Tory with any popular support among the electorate is Boris, and he's the Mayor of London and not an MP.

    It's also quite interesting to see it's 2013 and the issue of Europe is *still* splitting the Conservative Party.

    Cameron got the proverbial poisoned chalice when he moved into Number 10. Dealing with the defecit was going to leave anyone deeply unpopular with the electorate. In the meantime Labour are playing to the old class war agenda and are making up ground. I sincerely hope the British voter has a long enough memory span to remember who got us into this mess in the first place.
    How did Labour get us into this? I can't see how any of the other parties could have dealt with it better, I'm not a died-hard labour voter here, I'm part of the rising group of people who dislike all 3.

    Quote Originally Posted by Armchair Revolutionary View Post
    Britain is in dire need of political revolution.
    When the Revoloutio comes....
    I agree it is, because the 3 parties seem to be blurring together in their treatment to the middle classes in Britain, I'm not talking taxes here, I'm talking about how they all seem to act like schizophrenics when solving problems and lack of general ability to speak to people as equals.

    Quote Originally Posted by andysmfc13 View Post
    We'll be independent by the next general election meaning labour wont get its Scottish votes.

    Also can anyone tell me any UKIP policies other than the fact their anti-E.U
    Really? I didn't think a huge amount of scots wanted Independence, because every other referendum has failed for the SNP.

  18. #18
    The Great Montrose's Avatar Senator
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    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    Quote Originally Posted by ♖Sebastian Flyte♖ View Post
    And you can't research that for yourself because...?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...Party#Policies
    I was interested in seeing if anyone actually knew any.
    the dream will never die


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  19. #19
    Lord Baratheon's Avatar Decanus
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    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    Camerons big Europe speech is all a ploy.He will promise a referendum if he wins.Which he knows he wont.
    Remember, remember, the third of september, the Rome II treason and plot. I know of no reason why pre-order treason should ever be forgot.

  20. #20
    King Gambrinus's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Tory plot to oust David Cameron brews?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hibernicus II View Post
    Camerons big Europe speech is all a ploy.He will promise a referendum if he wins.Which he knows he wont.
    Yeah, except I think he believes it'll be a hung parliament with another coalition. Then he'll blame the LibDems again for not taking a tougher stance on Europe and not having a referendum.

    The LibDems will be annihilated in the next election though, no question.
    Fear not, crusader, Prester John will save you from the wrath of the Devil.

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