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Thread: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

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    DarthLazy's Avatar Equites Cohortales
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    Default Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    First heres the wiki article on Najam Sethi,

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Najam_Sethi

    Now, starting with the OBL raid in May , 2011, there has been huge political instability (even by Pakistani standards) , starting with the Haqqani Scandal, after that when members of the ruling govt. were questioned, Zardari even flying out while "sick", a whole erupted over the swiss bank scandals, mehran bank scandal, a huge row over Presidential immunity, and the most recent , a contempt of court conviction of the Prime Minister , basically, every opposition party wants his head on a pike .


    Countdown to Regime Change
    Posted on Friday, April 27, 2012 in The Friday Times (Editorial)
    The Friday Times: Najam Sethi’s Editorial

    The Supreme Court has punished Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani for contempt of court (imprisonment for 30 seconds till the rising of the judges) because he “willfully” flouted the court’s orders by not writing a letter to the Swiss authorities to reopen the money laundering cases against Mr (President) Asif Zardari. But the court has also judged that Mr Gillani’s actions have “tended to scandalize, defame and ridicule the court”, thereby attracting the serious consequences of Article 62(1)G of the Constitution which disqualifies him from remaining a member of parliament for five years (hence he cannot remain prime minister any more).

    The PPP’s legal eagle, Aitzaz Ahsan, has responded by arguing that the original “civil contempt” charge that was framed by the SC on 13 January 2012 against Mr Gillani referred to “flouting, disregarding and disobeying” the court’s orders and not to any “criminal or judicial contempt” as defined by Article 62(1)G. How then, asks Mr Ahsan, can the court punish Mr Gillani for something for which he was not charged in the first place and which was not defended during the trial?

    Mr Ahsan has also clarified his party’s position that Mr Gillani remains prime minister notwithstanding the SC’s conviction until the Speaker of the National Assembly determines within 30 days, as per the Constitution, that the conviction raises no unresolved question of validity before forwarding it to the Election Commission for compliance. But a serious question has indeed arisen about the charge and conviction, hence the Speaker is not obliged to send it to the EC for compliance until this issue is resolved.

    These are weighty legal arguments for a review petition by Mr Gillani. Therefore another drawn out legal battle is in the offing. We are faced with a classic constitutional deadlock between the SC and Parliament.

    But it is brutal politics rather than constitutional legalities that will determine the fate of Pakistan’s fledgling democracy and collapsing economy. The media and opposition are siding with the SC and want to kick out the PPP government. All that is required to convert the constitutional deadlock into political gridlock is for Nawaz Sharif’s PMLN and assorted independents and small groups to resign en masse from the National Assembly and Punjab provincial assembly and join forces with Imran Khan’s PTI “Tsunami” to launch a violent street protest movement to compel the government to quit and order a new round of elections.

    But this is easier said than done. The last time such a threat was hurled at the PPP was in March 2009 when a “long march” by Mr Sharif’s party in support of Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry’s restoration was launched from Lahore to Islamabad that compelled the army chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, to lean on President Zardari to relent. This time round, however, any such intervention by General Kayani is more likely to lead to a derailment of the democratic system than to any fresh general election that brings a credible and workable government to power. There are several reasons for this line of reasoning.

    First, President Zardari will not quietly defer to the army chief because the exit of his government will make him extremely vulnerable to the SC’s onslaught. Second, General Kayani is not likely to stick his neck out only to allow Mr Zardari to ride back into coalition-power after new elections on the basis of the current electoral arithmetic of Sindh and Southern Punjab. Third, the prospect of Nawaz Sharif replacing Mr Zardari as prime minister is, to say the least, decidedly discomforting for the military, given Mr Sharif’s track record.

    The “independent” judiciary under Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry is also in populist overdrive. It is in no mood to defer to “criminal and incompetent elected civilians”. So it might prefer to underwrite a non-elected government that is subservient to it rather than one thrown up by fresh elections. If the military and judiciary join forces, exactly such a political and constitutional crisis as the current one might create the perfect pretext for establishing a neutral caretaker government for an extended period of time to clean up the system, knock out the PPP and PMLN and pave the way for Imran Khan’s PTI in due course.

    Mr Zardari and Mr Sharif realize their individual and collective compulsions no less than their difficulties. The trick for Mr Zardari is to resist the SC and hang on to power so that he can decide when to call the next elections before the military’s patience runs out with the constitutional gridlock. The trick for Mr Sharif is to pressure Mr Zardari to concede an early election without pushing the system over the edge and give the military a pretext to jump the gun.

    Meanwhile, the economy is on the brink of default because political instability is hampering efforts for reforms required by the debt-servicing IMF. Equally, the US-Pak relationship needs urgent mending before desperately needed funds can pump up the economy. The sooner there is regime change democratically to resolve such issues, the better.


    In my view, the PM is going to stay there, or if he does not, he will want to achieve political Matyrdom .
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Real imperialism is shown by Western apologists who are defending Ukraine's brutal occupation of Novorossija.
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    Sovereignty of Ukraine was recognized by Yeltsin and died with him.

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    Kitsunegari's Avatar Equites
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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    It is true that most politicians are corrupt and venal no matter where you go, but the last period of military rule was definitely not a major improvement for Pakistan (although the Ayub Khan era kind of was).

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    DarthLazy's Avatar Equites Cohortales
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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    However bad the Musharraf era was, it was not as bad as the current government .

    Elections this year will be a disaster, we need Imran Khan to come in 2013, and his party is going through internal elections ( first Party in history of Pakistan to hold elections in itself ).
    Last edited by DarthLazy; May 06, 2012 at 02:52 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Real imperialism is shown by Western apologists who are defending Ukraine's brutal occupation of Novorossija.
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Sovereignty of Ukraine was recognized by Yeltsin and died with him.

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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan



    Rally by the PTI to force the govt. to implement the Supreme Court’s orders in the contempt of court case against PM Gilani.
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Real imperialism is shown by Western apologists who are defending Ukraine's brutal occupation of Novorossija.
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Sovereignty of Ukraine was recognized by Yeltsin and died with him.

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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    Quote Originally Posted by DarthLazy View Post
    Rally by the PTI to force the govt. to implement the Supreme Court’s orders in the contempt of court case against PM Gilani.
    Does the ISI goes ''Oops, terror strike'' when the political situation gets mixed ?
    So many things go wrong in life that a sense of humor, even of the macabre type, should have been standard issue.

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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    I do not quite understand, please explain , what does the ISI have to do here?
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Real imperialism is shown by Western apologists who are defending Ukraine's brutal occupation of Novorossija.
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Sovereignty of Ukraine was recognized by Yeltsin and died with him.

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    Menelik_I's Avatar Centurio Primus Pilus
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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    Quote Originally Posted by DarthLazy View Post
    I do not quite understand, please explain , what does the ISI have to do here?
    Sorry for the poor typing, I was a starving waiting for lunch

    I second though, nothing, the question I really wanted to ask was if there is a risk of someone setting off bombs in the middle of this political commotion that is going on in Pakistan.
    So many things go wrong in life that a sense of humor, even of the macabre type, should have been standard issue.

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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    I do not remember bombs in a political rally aside from 2007, but there is always a risk . They just did a rally in Quetta of all damn places, I doubt they will be worried .
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Real imperialism is shown by Western apologists who are defending Ukraine's brutal occupation of Novorossija.
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Sovereignty of Ukraine was recognized by Yeltsin and died with him.

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    Menelik_I's Avatar Centurio Primus Pilus
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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    Quote Originally Posted by DarthLazy View Post
    I do not remember bombs in a political rally aside from 2007, but there is always a risk . They just did a rally in Quetta of all damn places, I doubt they will be worried .
    I was unaware of that, thanks for the information.
    So many things go wrong in life that a sense of humor, even of the macabre type, should have been standard issue.

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    motiv-8's Avatar Tribunus Laticlavius
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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    Quote Originally Posted by DarthLazy View Post
    I do not remember bombs in a political rally aside from 2007, but there is always a risk . They just did a rally in Quetta of all damn places, I doubt they will be worried .
    Which party gets the most support in Quetta?
    قرطاج يجب ان تدمر

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    DarthLazy's Avatar Equites Cohortales
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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    ANP I guess . That is only a guess though, Baluchistan works (or does not work) in mysterious ways .
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Real imperialism is shown by Western apologists who are defending Ukraine's brutal occupation of Novorossija.
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Sovereignty of Ukraine was recognized by Yeltsin and died with him.

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    Condottiere 40K's Avatar Tribunus Augusticlavii
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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    Which regime is getting changed? If it's just the current batch of politicians holding office, nothing much changes in Pakistan without a complete purging of the military and intelligence services and bringing them under civilian control.

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    DarthLazy's Avatar Equites Cohortales
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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    Slowly does it , military does not control civil affairs , economy and corruption , which is THE biggest problem right now .
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Real imperialism is shown by Western apologists who are defending Ukraine's brutal occupation of Novorossija.
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Sovereignty of Ukraine was recognized by Yeltsin and died with him.

  14. #14
    The Noble Lord's Avatar Ba'ath Party Knight
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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    Quote Originally Posted by DarthLazy View Post
    Slowly does it , military does not control civil affairs , economy and corruption , which is THE biggest problem right now .
    I am very optimistic about Pakistan, it's a country that's experiencing huge political and social changes combined with economic reforms, but it's also a country of talented and industrious people and the country can reach huge potential in many fields.
    As for the role of the military, it's the most stable and reliable institution of the Pakistani society and one of the pillars of the country, I speak and deal with them all the time, very patriotic and totally incorruptible.

    The other areas of the society would improve, slowly but surely with the more transparency and openness in all levels, especially when it comes to economy and public sector!

    Pakistan is just now starting to blossom and this is only the beginning, there are many things that are possible, it only needs stable and productive government, more transparency and openness at all levels, more positive reinforcements from the military, independent judiciary, more civic parties and organizations to be involved and copperation from the religious establishment and parties. These things are being done and there are many positive developments, I am witnessing them every day pretty much and Pakistan has a good and strong capabilities to overcome certain problems and continue with the development and modernization of the country!
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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    What economic reforms? We are on the verge of default....

    And the military is the least transparent institution in the country , atleast the Politicans can get exposed and caught .
    Last edited by DarthLazy; May 07, 2012 at 07:25 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Real imperialism is shown by Western apologists who are defending Ukraine's brutal occupation of Novorossija.
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Sovereignty of Ukraine was recognized by Yeltsin and died with him.

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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    Pakistan has major problems with education (high illiteracy rate), living standards, and religious fervor in poorer areas. When these issues have been remedied we can more reasonably expect a stable representative government. While as Noble Lord points out, it is true military actually hasn't always been a force for repression and backwardsness, see Ayub Khan era especially, since the late 1970s its role has been mostly deplorable. The alternative was usually the Bhutto political machine which really cared more about power than the reforms they promised. IMO an "outsider" movement like the PTI apparently is could be the new blood that is needed in this kind of situation.

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    DarthLazy's Avatar Equites Cohortales
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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    Exactly .

    If the PTI doesn't win its basically game over .
    Last edited by DarthLazy; May 08, 2012 at 09:30 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Real imperialism is shown by Western apologists who are defending Ukraine's brutal occupation of Novorossija.
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Sovereignty of Ukraine was recognized by Yeltsin and died with him.

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    MathiasOfAthens's Avatar Praefectus Legionis
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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    Have they had regime change yet? Where is the count at?

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    DarthLazy's Avatar Equites Cohortales
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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    That is one very difficult question .

    ----

    A history of the judicial crisis .
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Real imperialism is shown by Western apologists who are defending Ukraine's brutal occupation of Novorossija.
    Quote Originally Posted by Heathen Hammer View Post
    Sovereignty of Ukraine was recognized by Yeltsin and died with him.

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    Default Re: Countdown to Regime Change - Pakistan

    I hope Pakistan gets some politicians with the support and balls to reign in the military and ISI. I don't care much about the economic or social situation in Pakistan but the least they can do is stop being such a problem child in the international system and get over the fear of India.
    "The Turks are never trapped. It's the people who surround them who are in trouble."Anthony Hebert

    ‎"What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence." Christopher Hitchens

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