Alternate History - Victory at Uedahara

[Heiro de Bodemloze]

To qoute Ying:

"Long post is long"

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Introduction
I was told a theory of why Takeda Shingen did not win the decisive victories at his greatest battles (Mikata ga Hara and 4th Kawanakajima). And here it is:

Until the battle at Uedahara, Shingen had been an aggressive and reckless commander. But in that battle he lost not only the battle itself, but also some of his commanders; Itagaki Nobukata, Amari Torayasu and Hajikano Den’emon. The man behind the idea thinks that this helped in the short run, by having better relations with his soldiers as they were not send off on suicide missions, but in the long run it made him not take advantage of for example, the Uesugi “retreat” at the Fourth Kawanakajima battle and the exploit after the battle of Mikata ga Hara.

So if Shingen had won the battle of Uedahara, not lost any commander, how would it be? Let us see where that leads us.

PART 1

The Immediate Aftermath

So, Takeda Shingen wins the battle of Uedahara and seize Murakami Yoshikiyo, perhaps the most powerful of the Shinano warlords. First of all, what would this do to the early incursions into northern Shinano by Uesugi Kenshin? One of the main reasons where that Yoshikiyo came to him for his help, and told him about the threat Shingen was.

The next sieges would go the way they did in history, the Murakami castles would have fallen easier though, without their lord to fight for. It was now the Ogasawara clan who would be the contenders. Yokota Takatoshi would still fall at the siege of Toshi, because here it was not Shingen who was the commander, but Sanada Yukitaka.

Let us say that now, Kenshin has seen how big and dangerous Shingen has become. And decides to go to Shinano and put this new daimyo to the test. The three first battles of Kawanakajima proceed with the same results as in history, an Uesugi win in the first and two stalemates in the second and third.

The Struggle with the Uesugi escalates

This is where it gets really exciting, the Fourth battle of Kawanakajima goes the same way it did, both Takeda Nobushige and Yamamoto Kansuke dies. But as the Uesugi withdraw or retreat from the battlefield, Shingen who is still as reckless and aggressive as for twelve years ago leads a head on charge against the Uesugi, seizing the baggage train and Kenshin himself. The Uesugi are crushed in one blow.

Now taking Echigo province is a rather easy operation. Most, if not all of the great Uesugi generals were killed or captured after the battle, and Shingen can now work his way through the rather poorly defended castles in Echigo and in the end take Katsurayama, placing one of his most skilled generals or politicians there as governor.

Now Shingen’s fast growing area contains the provinces of Kai, Shinano and Echigo. He would also most likely have control over great areas of the Kozuke province (1).

The attack on Hojo

Now Shingen will turn his sights on the Hojo, like in history, and will be in a more favorable position this time, he is not a careful commander and he does not have the constant Kenshin lurking around in his backyard.
In the invasion of the Hojo Shingen would not as in history not take Hachigata and Takiyama castles, he would siege them out and then carry on to Odawara castle, and without Kenshin in the background, he would take the castle and then carry on to take the provinces Sagami, Musashi, Izu, Musashi, Kozusa and Awa. Then an alliance with the Satomi would be beneficial for them, perhaps giving some territory to them in return for protection eastward.

The invasions of Suruga, Totomi and Mikawa

Then the historical invasion of Suruga (2) would come and make the Tokugawa of Totomi and Mikawa the next ideal target.
This would result in the battle of Mikata ga Hara, where after the rout of the Tokugawa troops the Takeda would march straight into the castle of Hamamatsu and massacre the men inside. Now Tokugawa Ieyasu and all his generals are dead.

Takeda would then sweep quickly into the province of Mikawa and seize Okazaki castle.

Owari province and the home castle of Oda Nobunaga, Gifu, are now within striking distance. The Oda control Kyoto, but are surrounded by enemies; Ikko-Ikki, Azai and Asakura, Mori and now Takeda. Mori and Takeda could seal an alliance for attacking simultaneously and crush Nobunaga between them.

The alliance with Mori and taking of Kyoto

After the alliance with Mori, Takeda can attack the provinces north of Kyoto without fearing to hard resistance. The Mori would take the provinces south together with the other enemies of Oda. The Takeda use their pace to take control over Kyoto first and Takeda Shingen as a descendant of the Minamoto can name himself Shogun.

PART 2

South or North?

Now Shingen would have the dilemma of where he would continue his expansion. To the south the Mori where too big to be left behind, but to the north Date would be rising. Further alliances in the north would be a smart move and would give him space to use all his power southwards.

A possibility would be to send Baba Nobuharu to the coast and raise an army and a navy, send him down to attack the island of Shikoku and the Chosokabe clan, while Shingen along with his other commanders took the provinces along Honshu before they rendezvous at the tip and ready for an attack at Kyushu.

Campaign against Mori

At some point the armies of Takeda Shingen and Mori Motonari would have clashed.
The Takeda numbers would have been, most likely, like this; since the Hojo were so numerous they would have contributed with 40, 000 men for Shingen. The Echigo Uesugi would be able to contribute around 15, 000. While the Takeda could raise about 35, 000 men, Tokugawa and Oda troops would have numbered around 40, 000, in total around 130, 000 men more than enough to wield a two front war. These would be split into two parts; one for the Nobuharu contingent set for Shikoku numbering around 50, 000 men. The rest, 80, 000 men, would accompany Shingen on his campaign.

The Mori would number around 50, 000 (3).

This clash would be very favorable for the Takeda, even more if it was on flat ground where the cavalry could maneuver. A victory here for the Takeda.

Chosokabe conquest

Meanwhile the force under Baba Nobuharu would advance swiftly at sea and take the Chosokabe by surprise. Chosokabe Motochika has used his entire life to take this island, piece by piece he has slowly taken it all. He lost it to Toyotomi Hideyoshi in a few months, the same it would be against the Takeda force under Nobuharu. When they had secured the island, they would move on to the tip of Honshu and wait there for the Furinkazan banner to rise to meet them.

After defeating Motonari they would have moved on to take each province one by one. The Azai and Asakura fate would rely on if they supported Takeda or not. They would then meet up with the Nobuharu force.

Taking Kyushu

Now controlling Honshu from the west to Echigo, Kozuke and Musashi in the east as well as Shikoku, Shingen would now release his fury on the island of Kyushu with 150, 000 men. I think he would have lost 10, 000 men and gained 30, 000 from conquered foes.

Being able to divide his force into three parts; one under Yamagata Masakage one under Baba Nobuharu and the last under Shingen himself. They would take the island easily and fast. After fighting so much against each other the different daimyo would not be able to fight together and therefore be crushed one after one.

Now the only part of Japan Shingen did not have was the far eastern part of Honshu.

PART 3

Date Masamune

(4) Upon leaving Kyushu Shingen could have changed soldiers from the lands there for soldiers he had brought so they would not bring unrest so easily. That, I believe, would be a smart move. For the route north the way through Etchu province and Jinbo provinces would be a good one. In the east the most preeminent was Date Masamune, the one-eyed dragon, together with the Satomi, whom were is allies. Even the whole armies of the east would not be a real match for the formidable army that came from the west, numbering about 180, 000 men. They would have flewn over the lands faster than the dragon would be able to. The last battle against Masamune would probably turn out with a last stand of the Date, with Masamune together with his most loyal supporters until their deaths.

Then there would be the Kofu Period.

So, if Shingen had won the battle of Uedahara. Would the world be different? Probably since Tokugawa Ieyasu and Takeda Shingen were so different from each other.

Note 1: I do not have much information on the Takeda campaigns in Kozuke and will therefore not tell much about them.
Note 2: Do not have any information on this either so just mention it and move on.
Note 3: The Mori have not had the same conquest as the Takeda and they are not the subject of the story so not that detailed information on this.
Note 4: I am getting tired and my knowledge is thin, a very short last part.

[Robin de Bodemloze]

I think you'll get a lot of heat for saying Shingen would have crushed Kenshin and cakewalked through Echigo. Not even I'm willing to proclaim something like that That's not even mentioning that Kozuke was also full of guys loyal to the Uesugi.

What's the rationale for saying Uedahara had a profound effect on his character? Just curious since I'd not heard of that before.

I agree that Shinano wouldn't have been a problem but even if we assume Echigo was taken it would probably take Shingen another 10 years to wipe out the Hojo, if at all. Didn't he give up sieging Odawara after about 3 days in 1569? I think he'd have gone for some kind of non-aggression settlement with the Hojo and just gunned for Kyoto instead. I personally think the Oda would have fallen had Shingen gone full out for them while Nobunaga had his hands full with the Ikko and the Azai-Asakura alliance. However for that to happen you're assuming that Shingen clears out all of Echigo and Kozuke (and the Hojo, if you're assuming that) by the late 1560's, which is a big assumption to make. Ieyasu wasn't a match for Shingen as demonstrated by Mikatagahara, so if the right conditions are met your scenario could work in that front.

My biggest problem I guess is that you're vastly underestimating the time required to clear out entire clans. Your scenario of Takeda hegemony isn't impossible but Shingen would have had to life until he was past 100 or something...

[Heiro de Bodemloze]

Post 3 from the bottom: http://forums.samurai-archives.com/v...760ba530e6c67a


I agree that I have underestimated the Uesugi, but I think the Hojo could be taken, by some of his generals if he was not done until he had to move on.


1549 - Shingen is 28 years.
1561 - Kawankajima is won, Kenshin killed, within a year a fast conquering of Echigo could be done IMO. Shingen is 40 years.
1562 - Kozuke is taken, using other generals, and Shingen moves on to Hojo.
1563 - Campaign against Hojo begins, maybe five years later, all of Hojo territory is under Takeda/Satomi rule.
1568 - Quest against Tokugawa begins. Shingen is 47 years old.
1570 - The attack on Oda and taking of Kyoto.

The rest of the campaigns could be done in 10-15 years. Leaving Shingen 59-64 years.


That's how I see it anyways.

I understand I did not do enough research on these matters.

[CptAustus]

Thats a big if. And the problem I have with if's is, you'll never know all of that would happen so well and so smoothly.

[DeMolay]

Echigo was one of the most unruly region in Japan , it was also the largest and richest province in the region , even Kenshin had problems to keep everyone happy and loyal there but eventually did through coercion and his military successes (however look at the situation of Echigo just before Kenshin took power , and barely two days after his death when Kagekatsu followed by scores of retainers rebelled ) .

IMHO the Takeda would have needed a big army there for several years just to keep order . Perhaps the Takeda could have seized the southern part of it with more success in battles though , but i doubt they could then wage war on multiple fronts immediately after , and even if they did , the slightest defeat in the south could have triggered a rebellion in Echigo . And one rebellion in southern Echigo could trigger other defections in north Shinano

Kozuke was well garrisoned with several fortresses , it was a rich and strategical region that was well defended , even with combined attacks of Hojo and Takeda , it never really submitted to either of them , instead they could only rule over a small part of it . But i agree this objective could have been met by Shingen had the Kenshin army been annihilated , but i question if he could have kept Kozuke for a long time , every clan in the region looked at Kozuke like a treasure and the region itself was fiercely loyal to the Uesugi house

Hojo had more manpower than the Takeda , were richer with a solid economy (if the war lasted , it would have advantaged them ) and had impregnable castle in Sagami and fortresses in Izu and Musashi where there was also a huge army . IMHO , one thing important to keep in mind is that in 1563 , Takeda Shingen had not finished submitting the whole of Shinano , it was achieved one year later in 1564 (also the date of the last Kawanakajima battle which caused decent losses to the Takeda army ) , Shingen was not in position to invade anyone before a few years , but had to consolidate , hence his project of a big dam and road constructions , he also needed a larger army as he had to rule a larger territory and face larger threats , that required to develop the infrastructure and spend money , thus he couldn’t fund an invasion for some time

In 1563 , Ujiyasu was still alive and near his prime and the alliance between both clans was still valid ( the alliance was fresh , made in 1562 through a marriage , and broken in 1568 ) . In 1568 the Satomi at that point were not really a threat to their territory (they only had Kazusa with a strong army but unable to regain the lost ground after the second battle of Konodai which Uiyasu fought with only a fraction of his forces and won ) but rather a major annoyance more because the Hojo were busy dealing with the Uesugi 's raids and Takeda's ambitions in Suruga , so they couldn’t really crush Kazusa , they postponed invasions to completely submit Kazusa , but eventually Satomi outlived them (funnily ) .

The Hojo couldn't really afford to submit Satomi's Kazusa at that date , but i strongly doubt the Takeda were in position to destroy the Hojo (after all it took Hideyoshi nearly 200.000 men and huge military expenses to submit them 20 years later ) .

On the other hand i think the Takeda were strong enough to defend Suruga (which they captured sneakily in 1568 from the Imagawa who were at that point isolated and at war with Tokugawa ) from the Hojo (who were forced to keep a large part of their forces in Musashi ) . However , Had Kenshin died like in your scenario , its likely the siege of Odawara and various raids of the Uesugi in Kozuke and around would have never happened , thus it would have allowed the Hojo to concentrate on the Takeda IMHO , which could have made things more difficult for Shingen , especially if his invasion was a failure , then Echigo lords sensing a weakness could rebel to recapture the lost grounds

Attack on the Tokugawa is realistic , however IMHO it would be suicidal to attack Tokugawa (being at war with Ieyasu meant being at war with Nobunaga, who at that point had Mino which borders Shinano and a large army ) whilst still at war with Hojo who could push in Kozuke , Kai and Suruga with a numerically superior forces (well in theory , because in practice the Hojo would have been obliged to keep a large part of their forces at least in Musashi ) . Sadly for the Takeda , it is almost what happened to them in the end in real history , that is why in my humble opinion , the only way the Takeda could achieve such a conquest is by maintaining the alliance with the Hojo and make sure the Hojo and Takeda interests never conflicted and that the Kanto would never submit to "outsider" clans , particularly the Oda/Tokugawa

I think the Takeda already "over-performed " compared to the financial ressources and manpower they had , they took the whole of Shinano (against the odds ) after more than a decade with basically 9000-13000 fighting men and great political scheming and manoeuvering , then they managed to defend it against Kenshin's repeated incursions for the following decade (Kenshin had more money ) , then they eventually managed to assemble a large and competent army over a decade , numbering around 25.000-30000 fighting men and invaded small parts of Hida and Kozuke , and then the totality of Suruga (which greatly annoyed the Hojo who saw it as their "garden" ) fell to Shingen , then they managed to make Nobunaga himself doubt about his future , they went as far and could even have seized Totomi and Mikawa if they had really wanted it .

I think it is already remarkable what they achieved , but i doubt they could do more than that (being surrounded by so many powerful clans , having internal problems of their own to take care of , and not being as rich as their neighbours ) , i think an even greater achievement for the Takeda would have been to simply survive , because once the Oda reached their peak , they were so much richer ( Oda's economy was on another planet compared to his rivals later on ) and so much more numerous that after Nobunaga beat Asai-Asakura , it was only a matter of time before the Takeda would be invaded , it's the struggle against the Hongwanji ikko-ikkis that slightly delayed the end of the Takeda . In this context , whether Takeda had Kozuke or not or a small part of Echigo would not really be decisive IMHO , but having the Hojo on your side probably would probably make the chance of a Takeda and Hojo survival much higher .