Speculation: Post-Shingen, Pre/Post Nagashino Kanto Daimyos vs. Oda

[Ying, Duke of Qin]

Inspired by Hresvelgr's thread on England vs. Japan, here's one that I've always wondered about. I've got two fictional scenarios for people to consider, should they be interested.

1. Suppose the Kanto Three (Hojo, Takeda, and Uesugi) banded together, is there a realistic chance for them to stop Nobunaga? If so, you are [insert whoever you want to be here. Katsuyori, Ujimasa, Kenshin). What do you do?

2. Suppose you're Oda. Short of tearing apart the alliances (which is what he did), how would you go about engaging these three clans? Assume your rear is covered by saru-chan and that he's more than competent to handle himself against the Mori, and require no reinforcements from your part, leaving you free to devote full attention to the Kanto region. What do you do?

Assumptions:

- Oda at the peaking of its strength, having just defeated the Asakura and Azai clans.
- Takeda clan strength assessed immediately after Shingen's death - ie. before Katsuyori's victory at Takatenjin.
- Hojo does not form an alliance with the Oda, but instead remains faithfully allied to the other two. Presumably, the goal for the allied forces is to eliminate Oda and then duke it out amongst themselves - if their plan succeeds, that is.

Critical point:

- Oda has formally militarized its state. Levies were in place, as are professional ashigaru. He had extensive trade networks, a legion of skilled generals, and a veritably huge fief. Most importantly are the separation between the military and the "everyone else group", and rakuichi rakuza, and business was booming.

Points to consider:
- Katsuyori will still lay siege to Takatenjin. This is a plan that's already set in motion, and to change that will change Katsuyori's character far too much to be realistic.
- Uesugi Kenshin will still die in 1578. Any major battles fought, if one wish to consider using Kenshin as commander, should take place prior to that date. We know historically that Oda was afraid of Kenshin, though we all know that the realistic chance of Uesugi taking on Oda post Nagashino is pretty much impossible.

Alternative scenario:
- This alliance takes place after Katsuyori's disastrous defeat at Nagashino. How would this affect the alliance, it is formed immediately after?

[Robin de Bodemloze]

Questions:

1. Saru-chan takes on all of Chugoku with no help? Would that be realistic? Where do the troops that were sent to help him go instead?
2. Does Honno-ji happen? Does Mitsuhide conspire against Nobunaga in any way? If not does Nobunaga still die after 1582?
3. What happens to the Oda succession? Is there a continuation of the Oda clan or does the Oda disintegrate and become a Toyotomi-Shiibata-Akechi three-way brawl?
4. Do the historical battles (e.g. Nagashino) happen? Do they happen in their original configurations or with added Hojo ally troops? For one Nagashino arguably could have gone the other way if the Takeda had more troops.
5. Does the Uesugi succession still become the mess that it did?

[Ying, Duke of Qin]

1. Saru-chan takes on all of Chugoku with no help? Would that be realistic? Where do the troops that were sent to help him go instead?

Toyotomi, realistically, may have been able to pull it off. So, for the purposes of consideration, stalemate in Chugoku. *Unless stirring up the Mori is part of your plan) Since we FIAT'd the Kanto alliance, it only makes sense to FIAT there. Essentially, assume nothing happens on the other end, allowing Oda to concentrate forces towards the Kanto region.

2. Does Honno-ji happen? Does Mitsuhide conspire against Nobunaga in any way? If not does Nobunaga still die after 1582?

Assume two things.

1. Happens historically. Hideyoshi cleans up, is successful, and the scenario remains constant.

2. Does not happen. Scenario remains constant with a steady Oda clan.

3. What happens to the Oda succession? Is there a continuation of the Oda clan or does the Oda disintegrate and become a Toyotomi-Shiibata-Akechi three-way brawl?

Three way brawl quickly resolved with a Toyotomi victory for the purpose of discussion.

4. Do the historical battles (e.g. Nagashino) happen? Do they happen in their original configurations or with added Hojo ally troops? For one Nagashino arguably could have gone the other way if the Takeda had more troops.

In pre-Nagashino scenario, Takatenjin is the only one that happens in historical configurations. Recall, however, that the Oda has plans to attack Uesugi in place.

In post-Nagashino scenario (the one I'm personally interested in), it happens exactly as history - near complete Takeda wipe with loss of major retainers.

5. Does the Uesugi succession still become the mess that it did?

Consider, once again, two scenarios.

1. Complete unrest, as historical.

2. Somehow miraculously succeeding in a way according to what Kenshin had envisioned - one of his heirs go out and fight and the other heir maintains the state.

Good luck. I'll post my own opinion if a few folks have expressed interest.

[Juggernaut]

I have a feeling they will be destroyed peace meal, since I really can't see those three being able to coordinate their strategy effectively. Also, I think economically Oda would still have the upper hand, with Sakai and Kyoto under its control.

[DeMolay]

Pre-Nagashino , IMHO the Oda would be hard pressed :

The Hojo had more than 60.000 men under their command (and possibly more , when you look at how many men they could gather to defend Odawara 20 years later in 1590 ) in the 1570's , the Takeda had the most experienced and professional army in the whole of Japan , Uesugi Kenshin was still alive , and if he could focus his military might only on the Kaga-Echizen region, even a general as competent and fierce as Shibata Katsuie , would have had little chances really

But IMHO they key point is , if the Takeda could afford to not defend Shinano against a potential Uesugi attack , If Hojo could afford to not camp his army at Suruga's border and heavily garrison Musashi to prevent any Kanto Kanrei invasion or Takeda offensive (well they 'd still have to deal with the Satomi ) , then the initiative and size of the Takeda-Hojo + Uesugi army would be devastating , probably too much for Nobunaga , i mean it's already a miracle he survived the year 1573 against a part of the Takeda army , but if the whole might of the Kanto would be unleashed against him , i don't see how he could survive that at all

A Takeda-Hojo alliance only would probably be enough IMHO , if they could project their forces in a coordinated way , 50000 attack Mino from Shinano , 50000 attack Owari from the east , even without the Uesugi , the sheer might of the attack would create a lot of threats in Oda's western front , the Mori, Miyoshi would probably opportunistically join the party , the Ikko-Ikki 's rank would swell if Oda suffered the slightest defeat (thus rebellions and defections too ) , i think the momentum would be clearly against the Oda , the banished Ashikaga Yoshiaki could have been used to make a comeback and rally even more men just by parading him at the front of an army in the Yamashiro region , it could well be a huge crusade against Nobunaga really , who was strongly loathed at that time , for his actions at Ise-Nagashima and Mt Hiei among other things



Post Nagashino , it's quite complex , i don't know , i think it would probably be a stalemate , it's too difficult to say because we have to know whether Otate no Ran happened for instance (which had a huge influence on why the Hojo sided with the Oda , why Takeda Katsuyori broke the alliance with the Hojo , and why the Uesugi became so passive later on , all these facts greatly played for the Oda ) , we have to know if Kenshin dies in 1578 or not as well

I think that if you assume that Honno-ji happened , and Hideyoshi becomes the ruler , then that means the Takeda clan doesn't exist anymore . since the Takeda clan was destroyed before Nobunaga's death (well a couple of months ) which makes answering the topic difficult . Likewise , if all this happened , then the Hojo would never ally with Uesugi , since the son of Ujiyasu (Kagetora, who was adopted by Kenshin) lost the succession war , and Kagekatsu won , so there was total animosity between the two clans

so Post Nagashino , it's difficult to say , anyway i think it was already too late to topple Nobunaga , but let's imagine Kenshin dies 3 years later in 1581 instead of 1578 , and thus there is no Otate no Ran at the crucial moment , so Katsuyori doesn't break the alliance with the Hojo , thus no Hojo-Takeda war before Nobunaga contemplates invading Shinano , and let's imagine further that Katsuyori manages to convince the Hojo to fight against the Oda , and that Kenshin personally makes sure to have Kagetora or Kagekatsu to succeed him before his death as the Only successor (thus no Kenshin's mistake to naming 2 successors ) , then yeah , we could have a Kanto united front that would work against any expansion of Oda forces in the Kanto , in such a case it is highly unlikely that the invasion of Kaga , Noto and Etchu would have happened , and the invasion of the Takeda domain against a Kanto alliance would be suicidal , so that's why i think it would probably be a stalemate or a very long war of attrition which i don't think the Kanto would lose , as they were far from short on manpower and ressources , whereas the Oda had enemies in the west (so they could not use all their forces , and the Mori clan was very powerful , with another more energetic leader , who knows what could have happened ) , disloyal generals (once Nobunaga became Sokenji deity , stopped leading his armies in person and dwelled at Azuchi , far from his generals etc ) and no allies to help east of mino

However i don't think the Kanto would be in position to launch an invasion of the Oda domain either at that point , it was too well guarded and defended by huge armies , Nobunaga circa 1580 commanded over 150.000 men , 10 years before , he had much less men , less than half the figure . The conquest of Omi and Echizen but especially the whole Kansai region gave him another dimension , when he just had Owari and Mino , and marched with Yoshiaki toward Kyoto in the late 1560's , he had only between 10.000 and 20.000 men .

[Robin de Bodemloze]

Ahhh..spaculation.

I agree to most of DeMolay's post so I'll just outline where I differ.

Uesugi Kenshin was still alive , and if he could focus his military might only on the Kaga-Echizen region, even a general as competent and fierce as Shibata Katsuie

Wasn't Kenshin generally doing what he felt like against Katsuie anyway? Despite having smaller numbers?

But IMHO they key point is , if the Takeda could afford to not defend Shinano against a potential Uesugi attack , If Hojo could afford to not camp his army at Suruga's border and heavily garrison Musashi to prevent any Kanto Kanrei invasion or Takeda offensive (well they 'd still have to deal with the Satomi ) , then the initiative and size of the Takeda-Hojo + Uesugi army would be devastating , probably too much for Nobunaga , i mean it's already a miracle he survived the year 1573 against a part of the Takeda army , but if the whole might of the Kanto would be unleashed against him , i don't see how he could survive that at all

The other thing is that Nobunaga himself was leading the campaign against the Asai-Asakura. If we assume the Takeda/Uesugi/Hojo attack before Oda takes Anegawa in 1570, then there is absolutely no way that Oda would have held. Even if you assume they attacked after the Asai-Asakura alliance fell and Azuchi castle was up and running, if the Takeda/Hojo/Uesugi attacked through Echizen/Shinano/Tokaido respectively, then Mino would most likely fall. If that were to happen then Owari and Omi would be cut off from each other, which would devastate the trade that the Oda relied desperately upon.

Post Nagashino , it's quite complex , i don't know , i think it would probably be a stalemate , it's too difficult to say because we have to know whether Otate no Ran happened for instance (which had a huge influence on why the Hojo sided with the Oda , why Takeda Katsuyori broke the alliance with the Hojo , and why the Uesugi became so passive later on , all these facts greatly played for the Oda ) , we have to know if Kenshin dies in 1578 or not as well

For post Nagashino there are just too many variables. Assuming we look at this right after the Takeda fell, whether Nobunaga survived or Hideyoshi took over I think basic condition for a POSSIBLE Uesugi-Hojo victory would be a smooth Uesugi succession with none of the historical shennanigans, and preferably Kagetora taking over the clan in one piece. If that were to happen the Uesugi would have stood closer to the Hojo and not the Takeda who were under arguably sub-par leadership in Katsuyori. Even with all those troops, and even assuming they took the Takeda lands they did, I find it hard to imagine that Nobunaga/Hideyoshi would have succeeded in invading Echigo or taking all those Hojo castles.

So in conclusion, Ying, it's all Kenshin's (your) fault.

[DeMolay]

I agree with your conclusion

For Kenshin and Shibata's relationship , it was more or less friendly until 1576-1577 , like one year before Kenshin died , because since Shibata had Echizen and Kenshin started to have problems with the ikko-ikkis of Kaga (whom Shibata was fighting ) and was at war with the Takeda (whom the Oda were enemies with at that point , post 1572) , his relationship with the Oda was fairly good until then

Things changed when Kenshin realized the Oda would not stay contempt with just Echizen (looking to invade Uesugi domain at some point ) but especially when Shibata tried to push further east and when at the same time Kenshin captured Noto (in 1577 ) , there was also the fact that the Takeda were being quite weakened ( Nagashino less than 2 years before obviously ) and the major threat to Uesugi's domain suddenly wasn't the Takeda anymore . Sadly , barely a few months after the battle of Tedorigawa , Kenshin died and a bloody succession feud broke out ... thus Oda miraculously suddenly had free reins to push east without much resistance , so Noto , a good part of Kaga which was under Uesugi influence and Etchu were lost forever

So yeah , Kenshin as long as he (she ? i don't believe this theory but it's OT ) was alive , even in his old days and numerical inferiority still proved to be more than a match

In fact if you assume that it is pre-1570 , so before Anegawa as you said ( because i was assuming in my first post that Anegawa happened and that Asai-Asakura were defeated , as if it was 1574 , just pre-Nagashino ) then i humbly think we don't even need a Kanto alliance IMHO , just a sound offensive by Shingen through Mino to deliver an almost fatal blow to the Oda ..

Cause if you look at how Nobunaga submitted Mino , it was highly likely that Shingen would have been able to make a lot of people defect to the Takeda clan , particularly the old retainers of Saito Yoshitatsu and a lot of people who could not voice their opposition to the Oda heavy handed rule , but were fiercely hostile to them (basically , most of the people who lost lands after the submission of Mino and destruction of the Saito , plus all those who resented the Oda no matter what , since there was a big rivalry between the two clans ) . But even without defection , there is no question that Shingen had a superior military might at that time

the thing is , in such a scenario (pre-1570) , i highly doubt the Hojo would launch a large scale offensive westwards , they simply couldn't , they would at best , send a big garrison to honour an alliance , perhaps to act as vanguard of the Takeda forces to show their commitment to the alliance , but with the Satomi and Satake lurking , and with the Kanto Kanrei still openly hostile to the Hojo ( Kawagoe was 20 years before but still fresh in the memories ) , at least hopeful to revive the Uesugi domination of the Kanto , it was too big of a risk for the Hojo to drop their guard at that time , and they would have little (if not nothing ) to gain from an Oda defeat , as the Oda at that point were not the juggernaut it became 10 years later after such a quick expansion . We must not forget that in 1570 , Hojo were still officially at war with the Takeda , the battle of Mimasetoge was just the year before


For Katsuyori , i think the history has been harsh to him , because as we know , history being written by the victors means those who lost like Yoshimoto or Katsuyori , are often portrayed as total noobs and stupid daymios , well i exagerate on purpose , i'm not saying you think that , but overall , they often present him as clueless and bullish guy , where in fact , in my opinion , Katsuyori may have made some huge mistake , chief of it , the fact that he broke the Hojo-Takeda alliance at the worst moment and lost the support of his generals and advisors with some very bold decisions like at Nagashino but also afterwards , so i agree he was probably a poor politician (unlike Imagawa Yoshimoto ) and a very impatient man , but as a battlefield general , he was a brave and skilled person (unlike Yoshimoto who mainly relied on Sessai ) , definitely not naive , paradoxically despite his decision at Nagashino .

The problem is that Nagashino happened just a few years after Shingen died , when the Shingen old senior generals were still doubting Katsuyori's ability to replace Shingen properly , so that pushed Katsuyori to "prove " things and makes spectacular stuffs , like the seizing Takatenjin castle when his father Shingen with a larger army could not (exactly like the young Shingen seized Umi no Kuchi castle of Shinano from Hiraga Genshin in 1536 , with just the rearguard small detachment , when his father Takeda Nobutora with his whole army could not seize it despite his best efforts ) , or attacking the Oda forces frontally when his father Shingen did not do so when he was still alive


So Katsuyori was "under pressure" to prove he would surpass Shingen or at least replace him properly , which most Takeda generals actually doubted for reasons i ignore , he may not have had the kind of charisma , intelligence but especially the sort of influence Shingen exerted on his men , but to be honest , Katsuyori was in a very difficult situation from the start : his generals did not trust him , Uesugi Kagetora was a Hojo man , so the Takeda clan was about to be surrounded by the Hojo and the Uesugi clan lead by the son of Ujiyasu (Kagekatsu's rebellion could not be foreseen ) , and on top of that , a new Formidable force in the east , the Oda , was suddenly arising and was willing to crush the Takeda as a priority target . So what to do ? Katsuyori chose to seize the initiative and tried to push toward Totomi , stabilize the northern front and if possible weaken the Hojo . It was a bad decision , but had he done nothing , who knows , defections would have happened sooner (the Kiso betrayal marked the beggining of the end for the Takeda , sadly )


In my opinion , with the trust of his generals , and Shingen not dying so young ( Harunobu died before his banished father Nobutora ) , Katsuyori could have made a fine Takeda leader , what he lacked is diplomatic expertise around him and less pressure on him on him to "perform quickly " . The unpopularity among the peasants and Takeda clansmen after Nagashino as a result of Katsuyori's bold decisions was just the result of urgency and defeat IMO . I'm pretty certain that with a slower succession in which Shingen would really make sure that Katsuyori was unquestionned , with less internal problems to deal with and less sense of urgency in the first years of his reign , Katsuyori could have made a fine leader of the Takeda in the end IMHO , but ok many people would disagree with me and i respect it

Yes , i find it hard that Oda would have invaded the Kanto too , like you Robinzx , the only reasons the Oda could do it so soon hiostorically , is the Otate no Ran event , which completely messed up the kanto political situation to Oda's advantage , breaking the Takeda-Hojo status quo , and turning the Uesugi clan into a mad house unable to deal with external threat for some time . Without gaining the support of the Hojo and with a strong Uesugi clan still lead by Kenshin , it's almost a sure fact that Nobunaga would not have invaded the Takeda so soon IMHO

[Ying, Duke of Qin]

This is the sort of discussion in which I am personally quite fond of. Thank you guys, for humoring me.

But IMHO they key point is , if the Takeda could afford to not defend Shinano against a potential Uesugi attack , If Hojo could afford to not camp his army at Suruga's border and heavily garrison Musashi to prevent any Kanto Kanrei invasion or Takeda offensive (well they 'd still have to deal with the Satomi ) , then the initiative and size of the Takeda-Hojo + Uesugi army would be devastating , probably too much for Nobunaga , i mean it's already a miracle he survived the year 1573 against a part of the Takeda army , but if the whole might of the Kanto would be unleashed against him , i don't see how he could survive that at all

Now that I see the constraints I've set on the scenario, I think the best case would be stalemate north against the Uesugi, and then ... I'm not sure. I can comfortably say that the Takeda were in no real position to start an offensive - recall Shingen's famous last words: no word of my death in three years. No military offensive campaigns within five years.

I am normally very, very biased towards the Takeda, but by the time Katsuyori took the reins of the clan, the gold mines in Takeda territory were running out. The Takeda war machine had to expand - or perish, which was why an incursion into Mikawa was absolutely necessary. In this, I did not think Katsuyori made a poor move. How he went about doing it, though, is a completely different story.

Wasn't Kenshin generally doing what he felt like against Katsuie anyway? Despite having smaller numbers?

I believe Katsuie and Toshi Maeda was up in the general area. They were instructed to expand if possible, but to be wary that they should not stir up the Uesugi prematurely. I think Nobunaga has always been wary of Kenshin - even though the two have never had an engagement.

However, it wouldn't be fair to suggest that Oda was unprepared - he totally was. Approximately forty-five thousand men were assembled at Tedori river. He clearly had a plan and his assessment of tactics would have been sound. Remember that the Hoketsu men were also known for cavalry-based tactics. It is likely that Oda wanted to see if they could repeat Nagashino -

and we all know how THAT battle turned out. I may write an article, but this is one of the most complete victories Kenshin could have secured given the circumstances. It shows that the man was either brilliant or he had some really good intel.

DeMolay, I'll come back later to comment. A lot of your analysis is very, very interesting.

[Robin de Bodemloze]

For Kenshin and Shibata's relationship , it was more or less friendly until 1576-1577 , like one year before Kenshin died , because since Shibata had Echizen and Kenshin started to have problems with the ikko-ikkis of Kaga (whom Shibata was fighting ) and was at war with the Takeda (whom the Oda were enemies with at that point , post 1572) , his relationship with the Oda was fairly good until then

Yea my bad, was thinking Tedorigawa was earlier on. Still this goes to prove that Nobunaga's teppo was not unbeatable. He was beaten by one of the best generals of the entire era, sure, but nonetheless.

Kenshin as long as he (she?

Let's not go there ....

the thing is , in such a scenario (pre-1570) , i highly doubt the Hojo would launch a large scale offensive westwards , they simply couldn't , they would at best , send a big garrison to honour an alliance , perhaps to act as vanguard of the Takeda forces to show their commitment to the alliance

I agree the Hojo would not have had a large part to play in any offensive against the Oda pre-Nagashino, but maybe that vanguard at Nagashino would have been enough? If we take seriously the notion that Nagashino was less one-sided than most people think then MAYBE an extra few thousand Hojo men could have made a difference(?!) (IIRC Oda had a two to one man advantage but still nearly lost?)

About Katsuyori, the Koyo Gunkan mentions that this was a guy who loved to duel with people and was a capable fighter amongst other things, so if you take the average of the Takeda account and the popular opinion of him as a complete turd, I think you have something closer to the truth. The fact that he took Takatenjin surely meant this man was not a complete disaster.

Did Katsuyori really have a choice at Nagashino? He had meant to capture Ozaki castle through that ruse of his which was found out, and then laid siege to Nagashino. He probably felt that if he retreated there and then he would have disgraced the Takeda name, and opened his authority to question. Both ended up happening anyway post-Nagashino, and he arguably underestimated the opposition, but if he thought he had a decent chance of winning and killing/capturing one or both of Ieyasu or Nobunaga...

Interesting take on what Katsuyori "should" have done at Nagashino:

Ieyasu is supposed to have commented later "…if he had taken up a position behind the Takigawa River he could have held us up for ten days anyhow, and we should have had to retire. Then he could have launched an attack on us, and ten to one it would have been successful. It is a pity he was such a fool." This is made the more unfortunate when one considers that Baba Nobufusa had suggested just such a course of action to Katsuyori before the attack.

My question to you both is what you think would have happened if there wasn't the whole Yoshinobu incident. If Shingen had seen fit to install him as heir, he probably would have done a better job with the Takeda economy (by maintaining his old man's ways) than Katsuyori? Yoshinobu would I think have had the support of the older generals and wouldn't have felt pressured to go and "prove himself".

This is the sort of discussion in which I am personally quite fond of. Thank you guys, for humoring me.

The things people do for you

I may write an article, but this is one of the most complete victories Kenshin could have secured given the circumstances. It shows that the man was either brilliant or he had some really good intel.

Would love to read if you do. The only thing I know about this particular battle was that he opened up Tedori River and let it flood the land in front of the Oda positions??

What do you think would have happened if Otate no Ran hadn't been so disruptive, or Kagetora had won and a Uesugi/Hojo alliance persisted?

[DeMolay]

This is the sort of discussion in which I am personally quite fond of. Thank you guys, for humoring me.

Now that I see the constraints I've set on the scenario, I think the best case would be stalemate north against the Uesugi, and then ... I'm not sure. I can comfortably say that the Takeda were in no real position to start an offensive - recall Shingen's famous last words: no word of my death in three years. No military offensive campaigns within five years.

I am normally very, very biased towards the Takeda, but by the time Katsuyori took the reins of the clan, the gold mines in Takeda territory were running out. The Takeda war machine had to expand - or perish, which was why an incursion into Mikawa was absolutely necessary. In this, I did not think Katsuyori made a poor move. How he went about doing it, though, is a completely different story.

Thanks for the topic Ying , i also love those discussion , for the article on Tedorigawa , it will be a pleasure to read it

I just learnt from you about the gold mines starting to be exhausted at that time , so that surely also further explains Katsuyori's desire to keep his armies on the offensive , interesting

Indeed Shingen last words and advice to not move were surely taking into account how difficult it was for any heir to succeed him , the full weight of responsibilities and pressure on his shoulders , plus the expectations of the vassals who had to be rewarded with something and were pushing for action . Shingen also probably understood better or earlier than others in the Kanto , how much of a threat was Nobunaga .

As Robin said , Katsuyori probably under-estimated the Oda threat . But by pushing at Totomi , even though he tried to export the war away from the Takeda lands and seize the initiative at a time when Nobunaga was busy with the Ishiyama Hongwanji , in my opinion , it was probably the wrong decision , because Hojo Ujimasa tried hard to make peace with the Takeda when he succeeded his father Ujiyasu , so Katsuyori knew it was possible to secure peace with them before doing anything risky beyond Suruga , Ujimasa did not contemplate Takeda lands , he mainly wanted the expansionist policy of the Takeda to halt and a stable border at Suruga/Sagami , so that the Hojo could focus their attention south and east of Shimosa

Yea my bad, was thinking Tedorigawa was earlier on. Still this goes to prove that Nobunaga's teppo was not unbeatable. He was beaten by one of the best generals of the entire era, sure, but nonetheless.

Let's not go there ....

No problem mate , yes sure Nobunaga was not unbeatable , i'm going to wait for Ying article cause i don't know the details of this battle , but what i know is that the flood trick used by Kenshin prevented an open battle , so we'll never really know what it would have been like in a "kawanakajima style " open type of battle

I agree the Hojo would not have had a large part to play in any offensive against the Oda pre-Nagashino, but maybe that vanguard at Nagashino would have been enough? If we take seriously the notion that Nagashino was less one-sided than most people think then MAYBE an extra few thousand Hojo men could have made a difference(?!) (IIRC Oda had a two to one man advantage but still nearly lost?)

Nagashino was indeed not a one-sided battle , the losses were high for the losers (not only due to the mass presence of teppos , about 3000 firing for hours , but also the pursuit at the end ) , but with more men and a different wheather , the outcome could have been different since in the actual battle , during the first hours , the fight on the left flank of the barricades was fierce , the Takeda forces almost made it break at some point , but the news of the rear being attacked created confusion , at that point , with more men piling in , we can speculate it could have made a difference .

However , as opposed to what Shingen always tried to avoid , Katsuyori let the enemy choose the battlefield and attacked frontally a defensive structure , so even with a Hojo vanguard of 10.000 more men for instance , i doubt the victory would have been worth it for all sides since the losses would have been so high anyway , and besides , even if the palissades would have been cleared and a part of the Oda-Tokugawa first lines routed , The Oda-Tokugawa would have retreated to the castle and waited for reinforcements from the west , whereas an exhausted Takeda army would probably have had retreated back to Suruga ,while the Hojo vanguard would have been decimated by losses . The Oda-Tokugawa alliance had much more men and far more ressources , so they did not mind a long war , whereas Katsuyori needed quick results , he wanted a decisive battle for a quick result

About Katsuyori, the Koyo Gunkan mentions that this was a guy who loved to duel with people and was a capable fighter amongst other things, so if you take the average of the Takeda account and the popular opinion of him as a complete turd, I think you have something closer to the truth. The fact that he took Takatenjin surely meant this man was not a complete disaster.

Did Katsuyori really have a choice at Nagashino? He had meant to capture Ozaki castle through that ruse of his which was found out, and then laid siege to Nagashino. He probably felt that if he retreated there and then he would have disgraced the Takeda name, and opened his authority to question. Both ended up happening anyway post-Nagashino, and he arguably underestimated the opposition, but if he thought he had a decent chance of winning and killing/capturing one or both of Ieyasu or Nobunaga...

I fully agree with you , retreating was not really an option , you see it's just my opinion , but based on what i read on this , i strongly think there was a certain negativity of the Takeda senior generals around Katsuyori , because apart from many not trusting Katsuyori's vision and leadership , they didn't want to defy Shingen's last words (that Ying posted ) , and the fact that most of them were quite old , so without the same guile of their younger days , they constantly discouraged Katsuyori to go forward , and that must have had annoyed Katsuyori a lot , as he was always willing to prove himself , and more importantly , to sort of prove them wrong and "show them" that he's "in charge" and will be a successful leader .

Nobunaga was the same kind of man , with a strong will , to the point of stubborness sometimes , but among other virtues , Katsuyori did not have the luck of Nobunaga 's early days ( i mean Nobunaga survived the plot of his mother , brother , uncle and vassals like Hayashi Michikatsu and Shibata who betrayed and tried to kill him in his early days , then the plots of the Owari bugyos to kill him , then the miracle of Okehazama , before that there was the miracle in the Ukino campaign when his uncle +Saito Yoshitatsu ganged up on him in a 2 month campaign when Nobunaga was weak , then Mino plunged into civil war and some of them defecting to Nobunaga which was unexpected , then Yoshiaki knocking at his door to offer him to march on Kyoto with official sanction which gave Nobunaga a new stature ,then not dying when he's in front of the Asakura army in north Omi , suddenly encircled by the Asai who finally decided to side with the Asakura at the last moment , so Nobunaga being attacked in the rear manages to escape in the night through Asai lines to reach Kyoto without being caught , then not dying at Anegawa with Ieyasu to save the day , then Shingen 's death just before he was about to be annihilated , then surviving the poisoning attempts on him and his wife , then surviving his wounds against the Ikko-ikki etc...

i mean Nobunaga really had some kind of "strong fate" , that takes away nothing from his genius , but Katsuyori did not have the same kind of "destiny push " , on the contrary , he had bad news all the time , even when he did well and contrary to Nobunaga , when he made bold decisions , it did not pay off

My question to you both is what you think would have happened if there wasn't the whole Yoshinobu incident. If Shingen had seen fit to install him as heir, he probably would have done a better job with the Takeda economy (by maintaining his old man's ways) than Katsuyori? Yoshinobu would I think have had the support of the older generals and wouldn't have felt pressured to go and "prove himself".

What do you think would have happened if Otate no Ran hadn't been so disruptive, or Kagetora had won and a Uesugi/Hojo alliance persisted?

For Yoshinobu , i don't know honestly , i know too little about him , but i don't think Katsuyori was the wrong man , i just think Shingen died too early , don't want to sound too confucianist , but that was probably the punishment of heaven for having banished his father (who was a very brutal and ruthless man , to Harunobu's defence ) .

Problem is that it left the Takeda in a difficult situation , and the Takeda were paranoid about the Hojo's intents and very concerned about the Uesugi succession , fearing Kagetora (son of Ujiyasu ) would eventually attack the Takeda domain with the Hojos from north and south . Likewise , as we said both Hojos and Takeda greatly under-estimated the national ambition of Nobunaga . I think those elements were the real problem , more than Yoshinobu or Katsuyori . IMHO , the Takeda-Hojo peace was crucial , and everything that could have prevented it to be broken , could have saved the Takeda clan . So if Otate no Ran had not happened , IMHO it would have helped


Still , it probably goes beyond topic scope but IMO , there were 3 interesting moments when the history could have taken an interesting turn : first is immediately after Okehazama in 1560 , had the Hojo came to help the Imagawa against Nobnaga since we know that since 1557, Imagawa , Hojo and Takeda were strongly linked by marriages . The second moment is in 1572 , when Nobunaga is encircled by Asai-Asakura , with the Takeda forces coming from Tokaido to march on Owari are already in Totomi besieging a Tokugawa fort , its the first snows falling and Asakura Yoshikage suddenly decides to retreat to Echizen instead of joining hands with Asai Nagamasa and prepare to siege Nobunaga who was in a very precarious position , 2 months before the battle of Mikata-gahara

The third moment is in 1583 , in the war between Shibata Katsuie who was supporting Nobunaga's son and Hashiba Hideyoshi who was supporting himself basically (well officially , he was suppporting Samboshi , son Nobutada , but ok even though Hideyoshi was incredibly ressourceful and intelligent , had really an amazing life , i still have problems to forgive him for having put an end to the Oda clan ) .

That war was really winnable for the Shibata-Nobutaka-Takigawa alliance against Hideyoshi (who at that particular time , had only between 20.000 and 30.000 men directly under his control, also imagine if Tokugawa Ieyasu would have sided with Shibata Katsuie ) , sadly Nobutaka was really lacking foresight and Sakuma Morimasa who was a great general , made such a mistake that the infamous battle of Shizugatake happened , then Shibata committed suicide( with poor Lady Oichi who previoously lost Asai Nagamasa ) etc .. But at this moment , imagine if the Shibata alliance had won , and the Oda clan had survived ... it would have changed quite a lot of stuffs , probably no Imjin war , probably no Tokugawa shogunate , Hojo would have probably survived etc ..

[Ying, Duke of Qin]

Cause if you look at how Nobunaga submitted Mino , it was highly likely that Shingen would have been able to make a lot of people defect to the Takeda clan , particularly the old retainers of Saito Yoshitatsu and a lot of people who could not voice their opposition to the Oda heavy handed rule , but were fiercely hostile to them (basically , most of the people who lost lands after the submission of Mino and destruction of the Saito , plus all those who resented the Oda no matter what , since there was a big rivalry between the two clans ) . But even without defection , there is no question that Shingen had a superior military might at that time

This is ... I'd really like to believe that this was the case. The problem is that if Shingen truly had a superior military support, why wouldn't he order Katsuyori to continue the offensive? Katsuyori was not really that much of a derp as we'd like to believe. He is an excellent field commander, if a bit hot-headed.

I think the truth is - and we glean more evidence from Hojo records - that the prices of rice in Kai has skyrocketed to something like 770 kan per a thousand koku. Compare this to Echigo (510 kan) or even Kyoto (550 kan), and the problem becomes self-evident. Ever wonder why Shingen worked so hard to bolster his economic backing? He probably knew that he'll have one chance in life for a real offensive, and he's been preparing for something like twenty years for this one strike.

Sadly he got shot and died (or died of the flu), because despite having five provinces (more or less) under their control, the Takeda was banking on resources that were slowly accumulated over the years. In contrast, I would argue that at this stage, the Oda's production and reserves were at least equal, if not greater than what the Takeda had.

the thing is , in such a scenario (pre-1570) , i highly doubt the Hojo would launch a large scale offensive westwards , they simply couldn't , they would at best , send a big garrison to honour an alliance , perhaps to act as vanguard of the Takeda forces to show their commitment to the alliance , but with the Satomi and Satake lurking , and with the Kanto Kanrei still openly hostile to the Hojo ( Kawagoe was 20 years before but still fresh in the memories ) , at least hopeful to revive the Uesugi domination of the Kanto , it was too big of a risk for the Hojo to drop their guard at that time , and they would have little (if not nothing ) to gain from an Oda defeat , as the Oda at that point were not the juggernaut it became 10 years later after such a quick expansion . We must not forget that in 1570 , Hojo were still officially at war with the Takeda , the battle of Mimasetoge was just the year before

Right. Realistically, without FIAT, the best the three could do is to ask for an uneasy truce, if even that. At the time, Hojo is being harassed by its "vassal" clans, as you've pointed out. They would not be able to expand anywhere - not without encroaching on Takeda or Uesugi territory, and to poke around at the little clans is asking for them to get into a war with either.

Post Nagashino , it's quite complex , i don't know , i think it would probably be a stalemate , it's too difficult to say because we have to know whether Otate no Ran happened for instance (which had a huge influence on why the Hojo sided with the Oda , why Takeda Katsuyori broke the alliance with the Hojo , and why the Uesugi became so passive later on , all these facts greatly played for the Oda ) , we have to know if Kenshin dies in 1578 or not as well

Do you think Uesugi Kenshin played that significant of a role in the affairs of -

Who are you kidding? The answer is yes. Moving on.

where in fact , in my opinion , Katsuyori may have made some huge mistake , chief of it , the fact that he broke the Hojo-Takeda alliance at the worst moment and lost the support of his generals and advisors with some very bold decisions like at Nagashino but also afterwards

You would probably like some of the more modern historian's interpretation of Katsuyori. Though, here's what I think was probably going through Katsuyori's head.

Katsuyori: Maybe Kagekatsu'll turn out to be like Kenshin. Daddy and him (her?) had a cool rivalry but she was still cool enough to bail him out. Uh... and we never bothered the Uesugi and the Uesugi was strong and will get stronger. K. Break alliance with Hojo now...
Kagekatsu: Teehee. All Takeda base are belong to us now. Will. As soon as I sort out all of this - Oh did we just lose Etchu? And Kaga? And - Oh. They're nearing Echigo now. Whoooops. Yeah. Sry. No reinforcements from Uesugi.
Ujimasa: WHY U LOOK AT ME? i NO HELP U.

...Yeah. I just realized something.

Compare: Shingen as overall leader of a country. Kenshin as field commander. Ujiyasu as tactician/strategist.

Versus: Katsuyori - Kagekatsu/Kagetora - Ujimasa.

No contest there. None of the three successors were particularly adept at administration. Katsuyori was an ok general, and none are as good as Ujiyasu when it comes to politics. I'd say the Oda has no chance against the former. Against the latter ...

, Uesugi Kagetora was a Hojo man , so the Takeda clan was about to be surrounded by the Hojo and the Uesugi clan lead by the son of Ujiyasu (Kagekatsu's rebellion could not be foreseen ) , and on top of that , a new Formidable force in the east , the Oda , was suddenly arising and was willing to crush the Takeda as a priority target . So what to do ? Katsuyori chose to seize the initiative and tried to push toward Totomi , stabilize the northern front and if possible weaken the Hojo . It was a bad decision , but had he done nothing , who knows , defections would have happened sooner (the Kiso betrayal marked the beggining of the end for the Takeda , sadly )

Precisely. What Katsuyori should have done - in hindsight - was to secure the Hojo alliance. It's known fact that Kenshin's retainers weren't all paragons of loyalty - one of the reason why Kenshin spent so much time managing his domain was because of a constant string of rebellions that seriously hampered the Uesugi's abilities to expand outward. Kagekatsu, we can agree, did not command nearly enough influence as his adopted father did.

The question was whether or not the Hojo would honor their alliance with the Takeda, and evidence is 50-50 at best. Ujiyasu was really, really good at backstabbing, and while he did instruct his son that Uesugi Kenshin could be trusted and depended on (this we actually have a letter proving this to be the case!) I think Ujimasa's decision to break the alliance with the Uesugi wasn't entirely unsound, especially not after Katsuyori's move.

I can't quite figure out when the formal declaration between the clans took place, though.

I'm pretty certain that with a slower succession in which Shingen would really make sure that Katsuyori was unquestionned , with less internal problems to deal with and less sense of urgency in the first years of his reign , Katsuyori could have made a fine leader of the Takeda in the end IMHO , but ok many people would disagree with me and i respect it

I actually agree with this wholeheartedly.

Yes , i find it hard that Oda would have invaded the Kanto too , like you Robinzx , the only reasons the Oda could do it so soon hiostorically , is the Otate no Ran event , which completely messed up the kanto political situation to Oda's advantage , breaking the Takeda-Hojo status quo , and turning the Uesugi clan into a mad house unable to deal with external threat for some time . Without gaining the support of the Hojo and with a strong Uesugi clan still lead by Kenshin , it's almost a sure fact that Nobunaga would not have invaded the Takeda so soon IMHO

Otate no Ran caused the Uesugi to pretty much lose all of Kenshin's gains and then some. Nobunaga was in position to threaten Kasugayama if it weren't for the events of Honnoji.

I'll post the rest of the follow-ups to this later. Nagashino, in particular, is definitely worth commenting. It's funny, too, because if you play it out using S2 Katsuyori would've probably won.

[DeMolay]

The question was whether or not the Hojo would honor their alliance with the Takeda, and evidence is 50-50 at best. Ujiyasu was really, really good at backstabbing, and while he did instruct his son that Uesugi Kenshin could be trusted and depended on (this we actually have a letter proving this to be the case!) I think Ujimasa's decision to break the alliance with the Uesugi wasn't entirely unsound, especially not after Katsuyori's move.

Osore nagara ...

I have a question Ying which i'm curious of

Why do you think Ujiyasu was really good at backstabbing ? i know you are pro-Uesugi but .... the Hojo being surrounded by hostile clans who relentlessly probed for a weakness during most of Ujiyasu's life , i thought he was not the worse backstabber of the region ( yes i'm looking at you Harunobu hehe )

Also i agree with you about Terutora and Echigo's fragile unity , however , i may shock you , but in my opinion , Kenshin was not an "angel" like some sources want us to believe , i really think he had such a big ego that he took the Kanto Kanrei title so seriously and was looking to enhance his personal reputation by winning battles outside of his Echigo province without actually occupying them in most cases or giving anything to the local population as opposed to the Takeda who would improve the infrastructure and well being of the province , Kenshin basically raided , plundered (his men ) , killed , celebrated , and then came back to Echigo as a hero to show his men how much of a baddass rockstar he was ( ) , then arguing about " Meiyo no tameni "like , justice and rightful flow , speech about him defending the Emperor and Shogun's will etc ...well difficult to say

Personally i don't believe it was his priority , i do think he was a military genius , but i don't think he was a sort of UFO daymio which was looking only to right things based on morality , i think he was much closer to the earth than that , but i'd like to hear your opinion , obviously what's so great about us discussing such a shady part of history , is that we have different views , so we can actually share them with good intents and feelings

Also what is FIAT ? sorry

Do you think Uesugi Kenshin played that significant of a role in the affairs of -
Who are you kidding? The answer is yes. Moving on.

Yes , just asked that cause if Kenshin had died a few years later , like 3 years later , the Takeda-Hojo alliance may not have been broken before 1581 since Otate no Ran would have been delayed , so Nobunaga may not have had the luxury of isolating the Takeda and using Hojo support to destroy Katsuyori

[Ying, Duke of Qin]

Also i agree with you about Terutora and Echigo's fragile unity , however , i may shock you , but in my opinion , Kenshin was not an "angel" like some sources want us to believe , i really think he had such a big ego that he took the Kanto Kanrei title so seriously and was looking to enhance his personal reputation by winning battles outside of his Echigo province without actually occupying them in most cases or giving anything to the local population as opposed to the Takeda who would improve the infrastructure and well being of the province , Kenshin basically raided , plundered (his men ) , killed , celebrated , and then came back to Echigo as a hero to show his men how much of a baddass rockstar he was ( ) , then arguing about " Meiyo no tameni "like , justice and rightful flow , speech about him defending the Emperor and Shogun's will etc ...well difficult to say

Insofar as Uesugi Kenshin's morality: historians can agree on one thing, and that is that he is consistently depicted, both in historical and latter sources, as some sort of idealist. His personal charisma was such that his troops pretty much worshiped him as the living incarnation of Bishamonten. In his personal artifacts and writing, we see a sort of androgynous side to his personality - it seems that whatever it may have been, he really did believe in bringing justice and what he perceived to be right and wrong.

Critics of Kenshin point to the death of Masakage, for instance, as a shrewd political move. There's a tendency to grimdarkify every historical figure, and Kenshin is no exception. The curious thing, of course, is that if Kenshin had intended to backstab his brother in the beginning, then he would not have given control of the bulk of Echigo to this man.

He basically hands most of actual power out twice - once very early on in his reign when he visited Kyoto.

When he threatened to quit, his brother was the one that hunts him down and convinces him to return. Now, either Uesugi Kenshin is a brilliant actor - in which he not only has the hearts of countless fangirls but also historians fooled, or most of what we know about him was really just as he is.

The thing is, I don't think Uesugi Kenshin wanted to become shogun. He had a mild desire to end the chaotic times, but most of it was more or less pertaining to his own people and Echigo. The Uesugi claims that none of their battles were unprovoked and without reason. If you believe that's the case, then no other clan in the Sengoku can claim such a feat.

Insofar as infrastructure - it was basically thanks to Kenshin that Echigo prospered and flourished. The first thing he did was to basically instill an incentive program in farming and slash taxation. Then he developed Echigo's hemp trade, fisheries, dye-making...

In most cases he didn't occupy provinces because well, they swore loyalty to him. They gave their word. That should be good enough, right? Kenshin IS far too trusting for his own good - look at Honjo Shigenaga. He declares independence at least twice, and Kenshin let him be both times. When inquired why, the answer was simply "Shigenaga has a free spirit. He'll see reason when he sober up."

The other reason is probably that he sort of intuitively know he can just go beat them up against if they do anything too stupid. Or that they discover that Kenshin was really a woman and start trouble.

Either way. Refreshing was the term the leading scholar in Japanese history, Sakamoto Tarou (not the TV director. The ancient guy) appointed. His analysis of Kenshin was more or less, overwhelmingly positive. The negative remark was largely that he allowed his beliefs of "justice" to hinder actual progress to power - preferring to derp around with Takeda Shingen rather than expanding outward to dominate all of Japan. His opinion was that if Kenshin didn't badger Shingen so much, we'd probably be looking at a Takeda Shogunate right now.

Thus, my answer to your question is more or less a yes-but. There is enough evidence to suggest that Uesugi Kenshin was really one-of-a-kind. You really, really could not make the same kind of interpretation with any other daimyo in Sengoku history.

Also what is FIAT ? sorry

FIAT is latin for let it be done. It's a theoretical framework that basically says: let the plan or idea be enacted be possible so we can look at its merits.

Why do you think Ujiyasu was really good at backstabbing ? i know you are pro-Uesugi but .... the Hojo being surrounded by hostile clans who relentlessly probed for a weakness during most of Ujiyasu's life , i thought he was not the worse backstabber of the region ( yes i'm looking at you Harunobu hehe )

Ujiyasu can outsmart both Kenshin and Shingen. That's no mean feat. He is also exceptionally skilled at political maneuvers - allow me to correct myself. He's not necessarily a backstabber, per say, but everyone, including the Uesugi, was really wary of his actions.

... Actually, I think Kenshin was just jealous. Ujiyasu also raised his sons extremely well - notice the high degree of cooperation and that none of his sons tried to kill each other even after he died...

Crafty is a better word. Crafty and unpredictable, but brilliant. Look at his battle against the "Kanto alliance" in 1546.

[DeMolay]

Thanks for answer Ying , nice post

About Kenshin , of course he developped his own province , but i was thinking of his frequent raids in Kozuke , and the numerous times he attacked the Hojo without warning , notably when he tried to take advantage of Ujiyasu's stepping down to Ujimasa , to attack the following year in 1561 , that was quite sneaky , and i'd love to hear the justification of the Uesugi for that (probably they'd say that Hojo should not have attacked Kozuke , but look at how Kanto Kanrei Uesugi Norimasa tried to crush the Hojo with 80.000 men , mercilessly some years before , look at how the Imagawa tried to swallow them before Kawagoe only for Shingen to interfere , like the Satomi treacherously attacked the Hojo when they were busy dealing with the Takeda etc ) . You just struck a nerve when you said Ujiyasu was a backstabber , it's my favourite daymio so i'm a bit biased i admit ( )so i'm glad you precised your thoughts about it , indeed he was an exceptional strategist , honestly for me the most intelligent daymio with Nobunaga .

It's just my opinion , i hope i won't offend you , but for me Kenshin acted for his fame in part , and as noble as were his justifications for his wars , when he came in Sagami and burned entire villages and crops , then sieged Odawara without success , then came back to Echigo , what good did he achieve and how is the Hojo's cause not fairer , or more just , one is the aggressor who wants to annihilate a clan , and the other is a defender who wants to expand east in order to be strong enough to hold against the hostile clans , which were pretty much all the Hojo neighbours

In fact , in my view , i think Ujiyasu 's motives were more nobles , he tried to protect his people and province just like Kenshin , but he tried all his life to promote trade and growth for his people when he occupied domains , he most of the time attacked to develop a region as opposed to raiding it to make a point or submit it politically for tributes and honour

Also , it belongs to the thread about Kenshin being a woman or not , but since you used "she" , i simply wouldn't understand how at the time , the important vassals chose Kagetora against Harukage while not knowing or knowing that Kagetora was a girl , it's simply unthinkable , not to mention that heavy drinking is rarely associated with women at the time , and to get into military campaigns and ride a horse in battle , you just cannot hide such a fact to your men , moreover the illness which killed (or not ) Kenshin could be just about any infection or disease that was badly diagnosed . At that time , the personal relation and contact was daily , you just cannot hide such an unseen case of a female daymio for 60 years without anyone noticing and starting a rumour , also afaik nobody ever said Kenshin was female at the time , isn't it a rather modern theory ? I can understand that his feminine part culd have been more developped than usual , that he had a lot of sensibility (spiritual , artistic, demeanour etc ), and a physical appearance with light skin and more harmonious traits though .

Well , i am sorry to go off topic , i realize we are way off , but i respect your view of Kenshin being more concerned about morality and justice than other daymios , but i also think that what we know of him is so little that it is difficult to say , personally , i just look at what he did , and since he knew he had a talent for leading men in battle , i think that he knew that sending his army on succesful military campaigns outside Echigo helped him tighten the grip and loyalty of his clansmen (or at least kept the ambitions of his vassals in check ) and enhance his status in the eyes of the Kyoto nobles , i think Kenshin had more "ego" than what is usually assumed IMHO

[Ying, Duke of Qin]

honestly for me the most intelligent daymio with Nobunaga .

Hojo Ujiyasu was one of the two men Kenshin had high regards for, and it's something that he noted personally.

It's just my opinion , i hope i won't offend you , but for me Kenshin acted for his fame in part , and as noble as were his justifications for his wars , when he came in Sagami and burned entire villages and crops , then sieged Odawara without success , then came back to Echigo , what good did he achieve and how is the Hojo's cause not fairer , or more just , one is the aggressor who wants to annihilate a clan , and the other is a defender who wants to expand east in order to be strong enough to hold against the hostile clans , which were pretty much all the Hojo neighbours

Two things.

1. Ujiyasu ordered his people to take their stuff and run to Helm's Deep - er, I mean, uh, Odawara. There was NOTHING for Kenshin to take when he got around. I'm not sure where you get the burning from - one of the reason why Uesugi Kenshin had to retreat was because there was nothing to resupply with.

2. Resupplying off enemy territory is considered to be a part of war. Every single daimyo did it, even Ujiyasu. Kenshin was acting on behalf of the Kanto Kanrei - it could be contended that he didn't expect all of the minor Kanto daimyo to side with him.

The uh, "self-defense" of Ujiyasu was ... well, he sort of invaded Uesugi territory first in 1530. Ujiyasu then lost to Imagawa at Nagakuboji Castle in 1545, which was what prompted the Uesugi allied effort to attack. They were seizing an opportunity just like any other daimyo would. He ended up taking all of Musashi and more or less, all of Kozuke because he could.

Basically, all three of daimyo invaded an area with the intent of developing. All of them I think wanted a better life for their people. Shingen's excuse was prosperity. Kenshin's was justice, and Ujiyasu probably self-defense.

Also , it belongs to the thread about Kenshin being a woman or not , but since you used "she" , i simply wouldn't understand how at the time , the important vassals chose Kagetora against Harukage while not knowing or knowing that Kagetora was a girl , it's simply unthinkable

The consensus between people who entertained this crackpot theory is that the retainers knew but didn't care and most didn't know. Usami Sadamitsu and Naoe Kanetsuna, along with ALL of Kagetora's father's old generals found young Kagetora to be impressive - he (she) took over the Uesugi at the age of 16. In comparison, Ujiyasu took over the clan at I believe ... 26?

By 16 Kenshin has put down three rebellions, fought off five invasions, and won four other small scale skirmishes. This guy (or girl) WON battles. He or she MORE OR LESS kept Echigo in one piece without it imploding in itself. All the while, Harukage was going mrrmrrmrrmrrr in Kasugayama and not doing anything.

The Nagao hasn't won any battles since the great failing of the Kanto alliance years earlier against the Jinbo. Honestly, if I was a Nagao clan retainer, I wouldn't give a damn about what the gender is either. It's about time we started WINNING. *pound fist*

By the way, I DID say it was a crackpot theory, right? I'm not serious half the time when I'm contending this argument.

not to mention that heavy drinking is rarely associated with women at the time

Three bowls of sake isn't heavy drinking by a man's standard. It was, however, pretty heavy if the drinker was female. Either way, 'rarely' isn't terribly good as an argument because IF Kenshin was female, she would have been the rarest thing on the planet.

and to get into military campaigns and ride a horse in battle , you just cannot hide such a fact to your men , moreover the illness which killed (or not ) Kenshin could be just about any infection or disease that was badly diagnosed . At that time , the personal relation and contact was daily , you just cannot hide such an unseen case of a female daymio for 60 years without anyone noticing and starting a rumour , also afaik nobody ever said Kenshin was female at the time , isn't it a rather modern theory ? I can understand that his feminine part culd have been more developped than usual , that he had a lot of sensibility (spiritual , artistic, demeanour etc ), and a physical appearance with light skin and more harmonious traits though .

Kenshin died at the age of 49. The other things - I've commented on in my gender of Uesugi Kenshin post. The general consensus was that if the people who didn't lose to Kenshin had no reason to comment on gender, and if you try to destabilize the Uesugi by going "oho, you're lead by a woman" then the Uesugi can go "oho, you were BEATEN by a woman. What now?"

So it was sort of the head of the Tachibana clan was Ginchiyo for a while, but no one gave a damn about her either.

As for people who said Kenshin was female... There's a lot of rumors and compositions, especially children's rhymes that do suggest such a thing. Sufficient to say, it's not substantial, but this rumor isn't terribly new either. It just got popularized in the 1980s and 1990s and went on from there.

Btw, I personally think Kenshin was some sort of sparkling bishie as Erwin Rommel have so kindly suggested.

Well , i am sorry to go off topic , i realize we are way off , but i respect your view of Kenshin being more concerned about morality and justice than other daymios , but i also think that what we know of him is so little that it is difficult to say , personally , i just look at what he did , and since he knew he had a talent for leading men in battle , i think that he knew that sending his army on succesful military campaigns outside Echigo helped him tighten the grip and loyalty of his clansmen (or at least kept the ambitions of his vassals in check ) and enhance his status in the eyes of the Kyoto nobles , i think Kenshin had more "ego" than what is usually assumed IMHO

Mhm. I understand that you're fond of the Lion of Sagami and respect that. And it is true - we know Kenshin far less well than Takeda Shingen or Hojo Ujiyasu (who actually left a bunch of helpful tidbits about how to discipline his sons - parents should take note. One of the anecdotes suggests that instead of punishing them, Ujiyasu would just sit down and talk with his sons). We have the Koyo Gunkan and a host of Takeda sources, and we have the Hojo family records for the latter, which is probably one of the most extensive accounts we have of Sengoku history - it goes down to talk about what Ujiyasu likes to eat (little hint: it's basically Yosenabe. He was particularly fond of seafood of the heartier type. He also thought that eating dinner was a good idea and personally expressed a heartfelt wish that he'd like to see his people make dinner a regular basis rather than a luxury at the time).

For Kenshin ... we have two records in dispute of historical authenticity/authorship. One record sanctioned by the Tokugawa shogunate. One record now lost, and a handful of letters. The fact that Kenshin had no autobiography, unlike the other two, suggests just the opposite. I don't think he was very egotistical - no more egotistical than the other Kanto daimyo, at any rate.

Also, I really do prefer to look at historical figures as figures of legend. I think it's more fun that way - after all, what's gone is gone, and nothing can be conclusive until time travel. So ... why not look at things from a brighter perspective?

[kujirakira]

This is even more interesting if we consider another infamous rumor involving a "sparkling bishie" in the Uesugi camp who, somewhat mysteriously, rose to be the most influential samurai in the clan after Kenshin's death. That is, the crackpot theory that Naoe Kanetsugu was Kenshin's boy toy.
If we combine the idea that Kenshin was really a woman, and Kanetsugu was her lover it gets quite interesting and fun.
In any case, the Uesugi do seem to have an influx of men appreciated for their effeminate facial features.

[Heiro de Bodemloze]

Hmmm. I have been wanting to post here for some time so I will just go with it.

But what will the Tokugawa do?

Anyways, if Nobunaga is going to invade he has got basically two-three options.

One: Through Southern Shinano, and up Shinano. But seeing Shingen used 13 long years taking all the castles, I do not think that would be very smart.

Two: Through Totomi and Suruga provinces, possibly dividing his forces to send one after Takeda and one after Hojo. More likely than the first.

Three: Attack Echigo and take Kenshin. He aloready attempted this somewhat, which ended with the Tedorigawa battle. Possible, but I think the second one is more likely.


The military part. I would have Kenshin as the supreme commander, with the other two having some power so that they will not feel threatened. Katsuyori will follow Kenshin on campaign and be the cavalry commander. And since Kenshin will die soon, Katsuyori will get a softer change from when he took over from Shingen. Ujimasa will stay and be the administrator of politics and their supplies and reinforcements. Also Naoe Kanetsugu will be a general at the same terms as Katsuyori. As soon as he is old enough.

The Hojo who traditionally have a huge amount of men will have the bulk of the army, while the cavalry of the Takeda will be the elite. The Uesugi troops will of course also be a big factor in the army.


Let us say the Oda march through the Totomi and Suruga provinces. The Kanto alliance will meet them first as possible. Maybe they will already meet at the Takatenjin castle. Howewer the Alliance will number from 50 000 - 100 000 men. Oda will have about the same, maybe a little less. If the Kanto looses, they will retreat the allied Takeda-Hojo navy will help covering them, as the Oda probably will follow.

If they win howewer, the Kanto will follow them, the navy will sail to try and cut their supplies and the Alliance willl take the provinces Totomi and Mikawa. Then they will enter Owari, here they will lay siege to the Azuchi castle. This will be the last stand of the Oda, and if the Kanto wins, they can take the rest and can also rely on more revolt from Ikko-Ikki and others who have been supressed. If they loose, I think they will get reinforcements and siege another time and Kyoto will be theirs. Now Kenshin will die and Katsuyori, Kagetora and Ujimasa will fight.

As a Takeda fan, my biased opinion is that Takeda will win, and the Takeda Shogunate will continue, with the Kofu Period.

I also think Katsuyori is terribly misunderstood, and falsely judged by history.

Thank you