A Dance With Dragons Discussion (spoilers. DO NOT ENTER UNTIL YOU HAVE FINISHED THE BOOK)

[Sardaukar One]

the plan is not to kill doran but to kill his son tristifer, and cercei's reason is because she does not want myrcella to marry him, as they are betrothed. i dont think varys has any part in changing the story as it seems like somthing cercei would probably do, she is way to protective of her kids. also when this plan is set up myrcella has not lost her ear

Thats right, the story was that Doran Martell was to witness his son Trystane being killed while both travelled to King's Landing. Though I don't know how an attack would leave the son killed but not the father without suspicion. If you can kill one, you ought to be able to kill the other.

Isn't that Cersei and the Lannisters don't know about the attack on Mrycella. I don't really see the difference though.

We see them talking about being able to invalidate the marriage between Tommen and Margaery Tyrell because it will be years before the marriage can be consumated etc, etc.
The same can be applied to Myrcella and Trystane. To me, it doesn't make any sense to do this now. Cersei seems so focused on combatting the Tyrells, it seems loony to me that she would risk war with Dorne. Especially with the Lannister military depleted from being battered by Robb Stark.
And we don't see any plotting in any of her chapters. But we do see her other plots vs Bronn, Margaery, the High Septon etc. Does she even have time to set up a hit on the Martells?

Whether he wants it or not, Westeros is going to be a wreck soon enough. The North is heavily depopulated, 4 seperate weakened factions sqaubbling with each other (Stannis, Bolton, Wildings, Nights Watch), and the whole area has not enough food stored for winter and is covered in snow

South of the neck and into the Riverlands, whilst there is "peace" now thanks to Jaime's settlements, thanks to Varys Cersei is soon going to have the Lannisters at the throats of her erstwhile allies, the Ironborn are raiding up and down the west coast and once again, the whole area is heavily depopulated, there is not enough food stored for winter and is covered in snow

The fighting and damage in the north is going to get ratcheted up a notch or two. The Riverlands still have Catelyn Stark taking it out on the Freys. And presumably other raiders too.

The South was relatively untouched. The damage to the Reach and the Tryell lands still seems relatively tame so far. The Storm Lands seem to be the same. Though the Ironborn will presumably cause a lot more damage given time, the Storm Lands have the Golden Company in their back yard and presumably the Tyrells heading their way soon. All thats missing is Dorne.

That the Vale has been untouched makes me wonder!


Does anyone think there is a link between the Wall and Storms End? ColdHands can't go under the wall and Melisandre's magic could not penetrate the walls of Storms End!
Did the Others make it that far how ever many years ago?

[donions]

Does anyone think there is a link between the Wall and Storms End? ColdHands can't go under the wall and Melisandre's magic could not penetrate the walls of Storms End!
Did the Others make it that far how ever many years ago?

Of course there is! Bran the Builder built both of them
He also built Winterfell.

Now that may be just mythology in the world of Westeros, but the main theme is that they were built during the Age of Heroes(like a thousand years ago) when magic played a much larger role.

[Korpskog]

What do you think will happen to the starks then? Bran is growing into a wierwood (and he shall fly) maybe he will ride one of the dragons as a shapeshifter? Sansa is going to marry the heir of the Vale, hopefully the Arryns + LF will go to war! Arya is being trained in the arts of assasination but how will she return to Westeros? Maybe the Iron Bank of Braavos will support Stannis and somehow that will create a opertunity for her. Rickon is living the dream at Skagos with the canibals? It would not surprise me if they have allready made him their chieftain/boyking because he has his huge direwolf with him, a nice scenario would be Davos, Rickon and a bounch of canibals landing to claim Winterfell!

[Chris Perry]

Ideal lovely Fantasy World: The Starks strike back, reclaim Winterfell, and destory the dastardly Lannisters!
GRRM's world: Starks keep on getting screwed over.

On a different note, if Brandon does ride a dragon, that means a 12~ year old boy will have to burn thousands to death.

[Prophet1331]

Well Stannis has a bright future through this.The Iron Bank is supporting him by helping him buy some sellswords and mercenaries. And if somehow Davos gets Rickon, northern lords + whatever Skagos men follow him will join Stannis. If Stannis survives the Bolton threat long enough, his gonna go from the weakest player to probably the strongest.

Arya still has some training ahead of her before she'll be going on long important missions. But somehow I believe she will abandon the temple and somehow return to Winterfell (mostly because of her refusal to let go of her sword- a sign she still thinks of her home). It wouldn't be a surprise if she ran away and the assassins go after her for "desertion".

Bran is gonna be a character used to clear more Westeros history I believe (through the Weirwood memories) and a simple way to depict what some people/ characters do without making them POV characters. I'm thinking he could be the way in which we learn more about the Others in the next book. I don't see those children of the forest playing an important role in the next books. They didn't do anything for thousands of years except hiding in the ground.

I don't know what Rickon is doing on Skagos. If the Skagossi hold to the same hereditary style rule (like the northern mountain clans) than they may help him/support him. If they are more wildlings than northeners than I don't see him having too big an influence. Probably hidding with Osha somewhere trying to lay low. He was wild enough as a child in Winterfell, spending years with the Skagos clans can only make him worse. I don't see him as a good lord.

Sansa has it the best of the Starks right now. She lives a good lifestyle. I'm not sure if she will marry the heir of the Vale. Littlefinger has a habit of changing plans (or what seems to be his plans). If he's playing Sansa, than who knows what he's up to. If what he told her is true, then he's making the mistake of telling people his plans. And that's probably because he seems to see her as a young Catelyn. I would not be surprised if he gets jealous on Harry the Heir.

[Karazor]

i was thinking since Arya in on the eastern continent maybe shed end up with Danys lot , working as an assassin or spy , i think it would be favorable for her to go to daenerys side and kill some lannisters except Tyrion cuz he's coll

[Sardaukar One]

Of course there is! Bran the Builder built both of them
He also built Winterfell.

I'm not aware that was a fact though. But what I meant was in regard to the Others.

What do you think will happen to the starks then? Bran is growing into a wierwood (and he shall fly) maybe he will ride one of the dragons as a shapeshifter? Sansa is going to marry the heir of the Vale, hopefully the Arryns + LF will go to war! Arya is being trained in the arts of assasination but how will she return to Westeros? Maybe the Iron Bank of Braavos will support Stannis and somehow that will create a opertunity for her. Rickon is living the dream at Skagos with the canibals? It would not surprise me if they have allready made him their chieftain/boyking because he has his huge direwolf with him, a nice scenario would be Davos, Rickon and a bounch of canibals landing to claim Winterfell!

Don't know what will happen to them. Bran looks like he will take over for the three eyed crow/mage the Reeds take him to north of the wall. Though exactly what that means who can say?

Sansa is going to marry the heir to the Vale, but how long will that marriage last I wonder? Once Sansa is married to Harrold Hardyng and her identity is revealed, I suspect that poor old Harrold will not live long.
Then LF can marry Sansa, as he tried to do when she was Cersei's 'guest' at Kings Landing (pg 852 ADWD).
This could potentially make LF very powerful. And by offering a way for Sansa to get Winterfell and the North back, he is giving her an incentive to see that little Robin dies. If she takes it or not, we will just have to wait and find out.

I think Arya will end up joining Dany, then coming back to Westeros. As to how this happens, I have no idea.

The Iron bank does support Stannis. Though this seems at the outset a poor investment. The core of any military available to him were lost at the Blackwater. But they seem to have provided him all the cash he needs to hire sellswords and ships. But he has to pay the Iron bank back not only the money he borrows now, but the money the crown owes them. By my math though, its not such a bad deal. The crown was six million in debt when Ned Stark was Hand of the King, with three million owed to the Lannisters. The crown borrowed almost a million from the High Septon and the 'Sparrows' etc. But Cersei cleared that debt by making it legal for the Sparrows to arm themselves. So it would seem the Crown owes the Iron Bank around two million dragons. Perhaps a little more. Stannis is never going to pay the Lannisters the three million, and one million has been cleared by Cersei.

We don't know for sure that Skagos is inhabited by cannibals. Would Osha really take Rickon, even with a direwolf in tow to Skagos if it was choc-a-bloc full of cannibals?
I suspect that Osha knows something those south of the wall don't about Skagos. Maybe because the Wildings try to get around the wall by taking boats through the Bay of Seals. Makes sense they might have checked out Skagos somewhere along the line.

How on earth does Wex trails Osha, Rickon and Shaggy Dog all the way from Winterfell to Skagos?
Or from Winterfell to where they depart from the North to Skagos? Looking at the map, thats a long way, and a lot of it is through Bolton territory.
Thats a long time to stay downwind of Shaggy Dog the whole time. And then Wex makes it to the Manderleys. All without speaking any of the local dialect? Thats a stretch to me!

I think you could be right about Skagos providing some support for Rickon and possibly Stannis.
We shall see!

If what he told her is true, then he's making the mistake of telling people his plans. And that's probably because he seems to see her as a young Catelyn. I would not be surprised if he gets jealous on Harry the Heir.

Possibly, but I think the gain makes the risk worth it. LF got rid of Lysa Arryn because she was going to kill Sansa. For Sansa, LF saved her life. Did LF set the stage for this? I think he might have.
I agree that LF has definetly transferred his affections for Catelyn to Sansa. But I also think that he is molding her. Sansa is starting to think as LF does, as evidenced by her suspicions about Lyn Corbray, whom LF tells her is in his employ.
LF might become jealous of Harry, but if he can stomach Sansa being with Tyrion, I expect he can handle her being with Harry. And marrying Harry is something that has to be done for LF to advance Sansa, and by extension himself. Assuming Sansa does marry Harry, then Harry dies, LF could then marry Sansa and become Lord of the Vale. With the way he is dismantiling the Lords Declarant, and winning the Lords of the Vale to his side, this doesn't seem that absurd to me.
Sansa doesn't have a whole lot of other options open to her. LF rescued her from Kings Landing and Sansa is now the daughter and sister to dead traitors. I think Sansa is kinda locked into this course for right now.

[Iforgot]

Didn't Theon's squire or whoever he was overhear where Osha was going? Or did I just assume it? If Skaggos is where they went I bet it was because of something that Maester Luwin told her before she mercy killed him. Some secret Northern redoubt maybe? It would make sense that he only told her and not Bran's group for the same reason he instructed them to split up in the first place. They didn't know Wex was up in the tree listening.....or hell as far as that goes Bran/Tree seem operate outside out normal time so maybe he just told them where there was a safe place to go like some secret Godswood on Skagos or something....If Theon could hear him then surely Osha who actively worships the Old Gods could recieve some message.

[Sardaukar One]

I was under the impression that Wex doesn't understand any language outside of whatever the Ironborn speak. Does Glover say to Davos that Wex doesn't understand their language?

[Pinkie Pie]

Concering the King's debt.
I do not believe it was ever shown in the books how much he owed to the Lannisters. He did however borrow money from these people.
The Lannisters - Between 2,500,000 and 3,000,000 Dragons: Being the richest family he would have borrowed much of the money from them and I would guess at the amount being around 50% of their total debt. I do not see Stannis paying an enemy but he is obsessed with paying people back so I believe as long as the Lannisters bend the knee he will repay them.
The Iron Bank - Between 1,500,000 and 2,000,000: The Bank of Brovasi are considered dangerous even to kings when it concerns an unpayed debt so I can see them not being too worried about Westeros gaining such a large debt.
The Faith - 1,000,000 Dragons: Cercie cleared the debt, it is possible that they will attempt to charge Stannis if he disbands The Faith Militant.
The Tyrells - Less than 500,000 Dragons: With Cersei being suspicious of people outside her family it is doubtful she would allow King Robert borrow much from them so i would go with about 500,000 dragons as a maximum.

[Sardaukar One]

Concering the King's debt.
I do not believe it was ever shown in the books how much he owed to the Lannisters. He did however borrow money from these people.
The Lannisters - Between 2,500,000 and 3,000,000 Dragons: Being the richest family he would have borrowed much of the money from them and I would guess at the amount being around 50% of their total debt. I do not see Stannis paying an enemy but he is obsessed with paying people back so I believe as long as the Lannisters bend the knee he will repay them.

Robert Baratheon borrowed, or rathers owes 'Tywin Lannister some three million dragons at present.'

At his juncture, the Crown is more than six million in debt total according to Little Finger.
So about three million dragons is owed to other unamed parties.

The Faith - 1,000,000 Dragons: Cercie cleared the debt, it is possible that they will attempt to charge Stannis if he disbands The Faith Militant.

Later on, we find out that the Crown owes the High Septon and the Faith 'Nine hundred thousand, six hundred and seventy four dragons.'
So just under a million dragons.

The Iron Bank - Between 1,500,000 and 2,000,000: The Bank of Brovasi are considered dangerous even to kings when it concerns an unpayed debt so I can see them not being too worried about Westeros gaining such a large debt.

The only other group who the Crown owes money to is the Iron Bank. I don't know anywhere in the books where it states exactly how much they are owed, but one would have to assume that bulk of the two million dragons is indeed owed to them. Perhaps all of it, otherwise why else would the Iron Bank finance Stannis whatever he needs?

The Tyrells - Less than 500,000 Dragons: With Cersei being suspicious of people outside her family it is doubtful she would allow King Robert borrow much from them so i would go with about 500,000 dragons as a maximum.

Where does it say that the Tyrells lent Robert 500,000 Dragons?

As for Stannis paying back the Lannisters, I doubt it. In the chapter for the next book, Stannis is not happy that he has to pay back Robert's debt as well as Joffrey's. So unless Tywin Lannister borrowed from the Iron bank to lend to Robert, I seriously doubt he will pay the Lannisters anything. Its not his debt.
And the Lannisters are not bending the knee. Had the Lannisters bent the knee and given Stannis support, its possible. But they haven't and now its not going to happen.

[Pinkie Pie]

Page 194 of A Game of Thrones:

"What treasury is that?" Littlefinger replied with a twist of his mouth."Spare me the foolishness, Maester. You know as well as I that the treasury has been empty for years. I shall have to borrow the money. No doubt the Lannisters will be accommodating. We owe Lord Tywin some three million gold dragons at present, what matter another hundred thousand?
Ned was Stunned. "Are you claiming that the crown is three million gold pieces in debt?"
"The Crown is more than six million gold pieces in debt, Lord Stark." The Lannisters are the biggest part of it, but we have also borrowed from Lord Tyrell, The Iron Bank of Braavos, and several Tyroshi trading cartels. Of late I've had to turn to the Faith. The High Septon haggles worse than a Dornish fishMonger."

You are right, it does state they owe the Lannisters 3 million.

[Sardaukar One]

I think its hilarious that I also quoted the same page, but failed to read on as to who else the crown was in debt too.

I would still have to say that the Iron Bank is most likely owed the most money out of the unnassigned two million dragons. How else do you explain the Iron Bank going postal to bankroll
Stannis.

Do you think LF has been robbing the Crown? It wouldn't suprise me if he was!

[Pinkie Pie]

I would think he did but considering he increased the Crown's income tenfold him taking a bit off the top is not a big deal.

I agree that the Bank of Braavos would have most of the remaining debt but there are still the Tyrells and Tyroshi cartels, I would not think the Iron Bank was owed more than 1.2 million.

[Mount Suribachi]

Arya still has some training ahead of her before she'll be going on long important missions. But somehow I believe she will abandon the temple and somehow return to Winterfell (mostly because of her refusal to let go of her sword- a sign she still thinks of her home). It wouldn't be a surprise if she ran away and the assassins go after her for "desertion".

No way is Needle still going to be there when she goes back for it. I think the critical point for Arya will come when she has to assasinate a "good" person. Her first hit she justified as the old guy deserving it cos he wouldn't pay up. Whether or not she can bump off someone who doesn't deserve it in her eyes will determine her future as a Faceless Man.

Sansa is going to marry the heir to the Vale, but how long will that marriage last I wonder? Once Sansa is married to Harrold Hardyng and her identity is revealed, I suspect that poor old Harrold will not live long.
Then LF can marry Sansa, as he tried to do when she was Cersei's 'guest' at Kings Landing (pg 852 ADWD).
This could potentially make LF very powerful. And by offering a way for Sansa to get Winterfell and the North back, he is giving her an incentive to see that little Robin dies. If she takes it or not, we will just have to wait and find out.

Yeah, its pretty obvious that LF's plan is for Little Robin to die, Sansa to be revealed and marry Harrold, who will also meet an unfortunate end. By then Sansa will be a woman grown and LF moves in, marries Catelyn 2.0 and inherits most of the north.

Until Cersei unveils her own Sansa, or some other fly lands in the ointment (like thousands of undead heading south).

[Karazor]

Sansas claim to the north for me seems like , whil Rickon is chilling with skagosi dudes, i can't wait to see if davos gets rickon and all will worck well for Stannis and the northmen will side with him and Rickon, if that happens what will Lf do with sansas claim to the north cuz even so Lady maege has a document where the next in line to winterfell is jON and was signe by the majority of the prominent lords , asumming Jon was alive somehow

[*Ranger*]

Sansas claim to the north for me seems like , whil Rickon is chilling with skagosi dudes, i can't wait to see if davos gets rickon and all will worck well for Stannis and the northmen will side with him and Rickon, if that happens what will Lf do with sansas claim to the north cuz even so Lady maege has a document where the next in line to winterfell is jON and was signe by the majority of the prominent lords , asumming Jon was alive somehow

If Rickon returns, he will be the next in line i believe. Well until/if Bran returns, I can't see Jon holding onto power if his brothers returns, he may hold power to till they are old enough though with their blessing.

I hope Littlefinger attempts to claim the north, then the truth about him setting up Ned Stark comes out. Bye bye Littlefinger's head.

I really want all the remaining Starks return in the next book and try to fix up the north before all hell breaks loose. But it wont happen.

[Iforgot]

I was under the impression that Wex doesn't understand any language outside of whatever the Ironborn speak. Does Glover say to Davos that Wex doesn't understand their language?

Don't they all speak the common tongue? I thought he was just mute.

[jacb547]

Don't they all speak the common tongue? I thought he was just mute.

He is mentally retarded and shocked

[HannibalExMachina]

or playing a little dumber than he is.