Alternate History - The US forgoes the use of atomic weapons and invades Japan in 1945.

[Gaius Baltar]

In this scenario the US would not use any atomic weapons, due either to production problems or technological setbacks. So in the fall of 1945 the US Army, Navy, and Marines begin massing for an assault on Japan itself.

The Codename for this operation was "DownFall". The Japanese defense plan was "Ketsugo".

Besdies the obvious slaughter that would ensue, what other political ramifications would this event entail. How would the invasion itself effect postwar politics in the Pasific and surrounding areas, the rest of the world?

[Vezon]

Well, I think the US might have been much harsher. Bitterness would have run high. And with the enourmous casualties, who knows how the Korean War would have turned out, if it happened at all? Japan would, at best, be delayed by 15 years from becoming what they are now.

[Blatta Optima Maxima]

Many more people would die.

[Dave Strider]

Tens, if not Hundreds, of thousands of people would die.

[Blatta Optima Maxima]

You sure are optimistic, man. I would say millions.

[Tiberios]

Casualties would have been in the millions and Japan would have been completely ruined.

[Dave Strider]

You sure are optimistic, man. I would say millions.

Oh, I meant US soldiers only. Obviously, casualties would be in millions.

[Tiberios]

Some estimates for US casualties are upwards to 4 million.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasio...ted_casualties

[irontaino]

The Japanese wouldn't have given up and many, many, many more people would have died. The A-bomb was a necessary evil because they only surrendered to the threat of complete extinction of their people.

[Gaius Baltar]

Conservative estimates of the casualties were about 1 million for the invading force, and 10 million for the Japanese. The devastation to the infrastructure would have been significant as well.

In the original plan I think the allies were going to drop another 4-5 atomic bombs behind the front lines to aid the invasion. That scenario really is a nightmare.

[Blatta Optima Maxima]

Oh, I meant US soldiers only. Obviously, casualties would be in millions.

I mean the US soldiers. Given the teneciosity of the Japanese, it's hard to imagine how they'd beat an entire nation at arms only losing 100 thousand men.

[Manuel I Komnenos]

Japan would be destroyed like Germany.
Even if the Americans won, their casualties would be hundreds of thousands. We would expect not only the Japanese army to fight hard but also the Japanese civilians, providing support to their forces and even creating large resistance groups in the big cities. The Japanese casualties would be millions. The Japanese had a huge number of aircraft and small ships or submarines ready to be used in a kamikaze role so I would also expect sunken battleships and aircraft carriers with thousands of sailors in them.

[Blatta Optima Maxima]

I would expect suicide bombers, bamboo-spear armed civilian human-wave attacks and all other kinds of nasty stuff.

[Jaketh]

the utter destruction of Japan and hundreds of thousands of Allied casulties

[Poach]

The delay caused by this would probably allow the SU to invade all Korea as well, removing South Korea from the table.

[Vanoi]

I was thinking if the US did invade, that the SU might invade too, making Japan become just like North Korea and Sotuh Korea. since they did declare war on Japan (forgot when)

[Henry X]

Estimates at the time were in excess of one million US casualties. Japanese casualties could have been expected to exceed 10 million easily.

As for nuclear devices, the plan was to use at least eigh on the island of Kyushu alone. And Operation Cornet (the invasion of Kyushu) was expeced to place in October of 1945.

Operation Olympic (the invasion of Honshu) was expected to place the following spring and begin with an invasion in Tokyo Bay (probably to sever the head of the governent and to liberate POWs).

Given what I know already, I would not be surprised to see another six atomic bombs dropped on Honshu.

As for the operation names, those are the two planned names though I may have them mixed-up.

[Azog 150]

Also bear in mind that aside from Japan itself, the Japanese Empire still controlled many places in Asia (Singapore, Malaya, parts of Borneo, parts of China and Korea to name a few) where they would have to have been dislodged. I know Britain and the Commonwealth, aside from taking part in Operation Comet (Albeit a minor part compared to the US) had plans for what was believed to be a fairly bloody campaign to take back Malaya and Singapore.

[conon394]

I was thinking if the US did invade, that the SU might invade too, making Japan become just like North Korea and Sotuh Korea. since they did declare war on Japan (forgot when)

How?

[Henry X]

He means that they would also land on the island and a South Korea/North korea situation would have developed.

Though I don't know if the Soviets had any naval assets in the Pacific if any at all.