In my current game as Oda, I am at a pivotal point where my next decision could mean game over if I make the wrong strategic choice. I thought it would be interesting to see what others would do if faced with the same problem. I attached the current clan map. Here is the situation:
Attachment 149776
I am Oda (yellow). I've had a steady alliance with Hattori (black) since the very beginning however I suspect the only thing which has prevented them from backstabbing me has been a long drawn out war they've had with Hatakemya (3 light green territories north of me between Hattori and Takeda). Hattori and I are both at war with Ashikaga/kyoto but they have been facing the brunt of the attacks.
Hatakemya (3 light green territories north of me) have been at war with me off and on. I've moved in to support Hattori preventing them from being crippled but I haven't been interested in aqcuiring their land because it would leave me stretched too thin. Instead I've taken their southern territories. We just signed a peace treaty however if the pattern repeats itself, once they rebuild their army, we will be at war again.
Urikama?(4 green territories to the west) are unfriendly but haven't been focusing westward. I fear that won't last long. They are allied with Ashikaga and at war with Hattori.
Kiso (1 green territory to the east) is neutral. They are at peace with all surrounding clans and I suspect that is the case because of the giant army stacks in their province. They have been building up from the beginning of the game but haven't made a move.
Takeda (Red territories) are at peace with me but we are not allied. They have been expanding north and eastward which is where the majority of their military is stationed. They have just conquered the Usegei clan. They are allied with Hojo(blue). We are trading but it is an uneasy peace. They have few options left for expansion but they are not my biggest concern.
Hojo (blue) has just defeated the Date clan. They have but one more territory to consume before I fear I am the next target. They are allied with Takeda and have been for a long time. Like Takeda, their armies are far east and north of my borders.
I have 3 standing armies.
One on the southern border of Hojo and Takeda.
One bordering Takeda and Hatakemya in the north.
One in the southeast bordering Urikama.
So what is my next move?
1) Preemptive strike on Hojo - I could do some damage because their armies are far from me however this would bring Takeda down on me and eventually the full might of Hojo.
2) Preemptive strike on Takeda - Same as Hojo. I could take fewer territories initially but I would face their full armies sooner and would inevitably have Hojo on me.
3) Finish off Hatakemya - This would be easy but would stretch out my lands and make it difficult to defend. Also this could lead to Hattori deciding to be ambitious attacking my undefended territories which border their lands.
4) Take Kiso - This could slightly weaken my forces and wouldn't help me with the inevitable war against Takeda and Hojo. They might also prove a useful ally when the war starts.
5) Attack Hattori - They are my only ally and help keep the western clans at bay but I fear it is only a matter of time before they betray me. Should I spread eastward, I will anger the shogun causing them to turn and I would be extremely vunerable to their invasion with my armies far away.
6) Build a navy and invade the islands or Urikama.