- The Tavern -

[wulfgar610]

Russia does not have the economic strength to take over Ukraine (Even California has a bigger, more diversified economy than Russia), even maintaining basic services in Crimea is a big Burden under current economic conditions. Regarding the West´s promises to the dead USSR, i ask myself often how did Gorbachov or any in his government not see that eastern europe was too big of a market for the west to seek? Come on, International politics is all about realism (at least on an official level) promises are only to be kept if they benefit the national state. In my personal position i would rather see Ukraine under the west´s side as Putin´s Crony capitalism does not represent a real economic and political alternative to the current system.

I don't think you get it, rightly or wrongly Russia will not tolerate a ring of nations along its borders being pointed daggers against its throat. This is a country that has suffered two massive invasions from the West in recent history. Once, could be forgotten, but twice says the West has an avowed aim to destroy Russia. They will trust your lot not one little bit.

In the case of Novorussia until now it has been tightly linked to Russia economically. It is this factor that counts, because a huge amount of Russia's food imports, coal, iron come from Ukraine. If these resources are lost then they may as well quit the concept of Russia all together. Even in WW2 the massive Soviet effort was to recapture Ukraine, long before areas like Belorussia and the Baltic states. To preserve the major part of their independence all these states had to do was not become party with Nato and the EU and not persecute ethic Russians. These states are incapable of doing this, hence they will be made to disappear.

[Diocle]

Russia does not have the economic strength to take over Ukraine (Even California has a bigger, more diversified economy than Russia

California population is 38 millions, Russian population is 143 millions. Russia has a big army which could annihilate in few minutes whatever Germany can throw against them.
This is the standing situation in the area. Maybe restructuring the whole budget of the State, and investing what today Germany is investing on pensions and welfare state, Germany in 20 years will be able to build an army which can face the Russian army, sadly today this is not the situation on the field.
Americans can send troops in Europe but the money is not enough to build a true offensive strategy on the field against Russia, so, USA can only send weapons to the Ukrainians and then send them to die, and this has been done.

Today Crimea is already part of Russia and this was the first and main target of Mr. Putin, what it stands still of the rebel force is under siege, a siege that will last for the necessary time, while their economy is collapsed (can somebody tell me why we should give to half the Ukrainians the money we refuse to give to the Greeks, please?), Ukraine is a failed state. Putin has won, you can hate him but this doesn't change the facts: Putin has won.
Today we are just waiting that Mr. Obama finds a way to say to the American electorate:
"Sorry people, I was wrong, I have done a lot of idiotic things, dilapidating tons of money in catastrophic political adventures, in which I've ALWAYS LOST. Sorry I'm a .. dickhead."


juanplay, may I ask you, when will you close your book of dreams and will you come back on this real world on which we all have to live?
Actually, in the real world, Russia is still a super-power, European Union is not a real State, USA have the largest Public Debt of Human History, China is a Super-Power (1'500'000'000 citizens), Japan (126'000'000 citizens) is in awe watching at its big neighbor, India (1'000'000'000 citizens) is in a very precarious position, the Saudi (28'000'000 princes) are as always impotent, while Iran (77'000'000 citizens) is building the Bomb, Turks count nothing (as always).
OK, I admit it's a hard task accepting that the realty is different from our dreams, but actually what else can we do? All in all, we have not chosen on the European map, the place in which Romania, Poland, Finland, Bulgary and Czech Republic actually are, this is not a matter about Mr. Putin or the Tzar, this is a matter about geopolitics, even if the Tzars were still there, the Russian national interest would be the same.
You cannot delete Russia from geopolitic map of Europe without a war, sadly (at least for you) nobody in Europe wants to make a war against Russia, in Europe, Germany (80'000'000 citizens) and Italy (61'000'000 citizens), both with veto power in any European decision on the matter, are close supporters of Gazprom's interests, so, you can forget about any European military action against Russia, today and for the next half century (at least).
It's hard to accept this truth, but the Eastern Europeans have to deal with Russia relying on themselves.

And as final note about the newcomers in the so called Union, the Eastern Europeans, I'd suggest them: never idealize the Germans (forget not that they have invented the Idealism!) and trust not too much in the German help ..




.. you know, regimes may change, wars can be fought, horrid dictatorships can fall but .. national interests stay there, .. Tzar or Kaiser, Merkel or Putin, Stalin or Hitler, the national interest does not change for it's based on a thing that we human beings cannot change, it's called Geography and it's inherently connected with History.

(French Historical School has written great pages on the matter).

[wulfgar610]

regimes may change

No, we have always been enemies of East Asia and Allies with Pan Asia! Big Brother is watching you! {sarcasm}

[juanplay]

Diocle, National history and thus interest does change because Nations as entities created by humans (not too long ago) are subject to modifications, everything changes just too slowly for us to realize, our common friends Braudel, Febvre and Bloch would agree. Now, regarding Russia im not being an idealist, but i dont believe for a second Russia is still a superpower, it is a shell of what it once was. Tell me what gives Russia that qualification? its economy (you cant be a superpower if your economy is no bigger than any of the western countries or any US state and your economy is entirely based on selling oil and gas or weapons), its military no longer has power projection (it can only operate near its borders) its political influence wanes in the middle east as Iran takes a more proactive role and in eastern Europe it is germany who leads both economically and politically. Now, i never asked for a war between Russia and Europe, only a madman would call for something that could cause such suffering, and also today`s economies are too interdependent to be able to go to war (especially if you consider Russia-German volumen of trade). Also remember that the west still leads in technological innovation: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/21/te...=top-news&_r=0

[Diocle]

juan, what you call 'West' doesn't exist, they exist nations, the same old nations which are doing exactly what they have always done, that is, fighting to prevail, what is new today, it's that China and India are players in this same game, and this makes all the matter tragically more complex.

What gives Russia its qualification is that it has enough nuclear weapons to vaporize Europe two or three times, to erase from the face of Earth a good amount of large American and European towns, the fact that Russia has the vectors to use its nuclear arsenal as they want, the fact that the Russian army is still able to control a huge territory, as wide as the same Eurasia and you and me, we can't do anything to change this state of fact. The fact that even China knows that it would not be a wise choice attacking Russia, is the proof that at Pechino there is still some old and wise man.

This is real geopolitics, today at the beginning of the III millenium, and it's connected with real history and real geography, so juan, close your fantasy book about your phantomatic 'West' (what's this West you're talking about? I don't know ..), and try to come back to the real world, that is the world in the Age of the Capitalist development called 'Late Imperialism', sadly (at least for you) in this real world Putin is winning his personal game, whether you like it or not.

[Lt.-Col. Dan]

The aggression began with the other side. Russia's withdrawal from the occupation of Eastern Europe was contingent on those former satellites not becoming a staging post for the anti- Russian alliance. Allowing the independence of former SU nations was contingent on them not becoming a staging post for the anti-Russian alliance and further, remaining within the Russian trade system and not harassing ethnic Russians. All three principles have been violated.

With all due respect, I can't agree with your opinion. Those nations GAINED independence, they weren't "allowed" the independence. Sometimes those nations had to fight for it, just like Moldova did in Transdnestr region.
So, a nation being independ and sovereign, it can ally with whoever it whishes. All other ideas is just Russian propaganda
(again, with all due respect...).

[Lt.-Col. Dan]

And as final note about the newcomers in the so called Union, the Eastern Europeans, I'd suggest them: never idealize the Germans (forget not that they have invented the Idealism!) and trust not too much in the German help ..

No one in Romania (and i bet in Poland and Baltic states too) has forgotten Ribbentrop - Molotov Pact and it's ugly results...

in eastern Europe it is germany who leads both economically and politically.

If Germany continues it's romance with Russia, East European Nations will realize that Germany's word means crap. Some of them allready did, after Minsk.

[juanplay]

juan, what you call 'West' doesn't exist, they exist nations, the same old nations which are doing exactly what the have always done, that is, fighting to prevail, what is new today, it's that China and India are players in this same game, and this makes all the matter tragically more complex.

What gives Russia its qualification is that it has enough nuclear weapons to vaporize Europe two or three times, to erase from the face of Earth a good amount of large American and European towns, the fact that Russia has the vectors to use its nuclear arsenal as they want, the fact that the Russian army is still able to control a huge territory, as wide as the same Eurasia and you and me, we can't do anything to change this state of fact. The fact that even China knows that it would not be a wise choice attacking Russia, is the proof that at Pechino there is still some old and wise man.

This is real geopolitics, today at the beginning of the III millenium, and it's connected with real history and real geography, so juan, close your fantasy book about your phantomatic 'West' (what's this West you're talking about? I don't know ..), and try to come back to the real world, that is the world in the Age of the Capitalist development called 'Late Imperialism', sadly (at least for you) in this real world Putin is winning his personal game, whether you like it or not.

Please, no nuclear country today (or even in the past) would risk nuclear war because no one would win if most of the planet`s surface is vapirized. thats just a bully`s tool to project power. If nuclear weapons were enough to give the status of a superpower, Israel would be one.

[Diocle]

I can't agree with your opinion. Those nations GAINED independence, they weren't "allowed" the independence.

It's not a matter of rights, indipendence, or democracy, it's a matter of geopolitics, nobody in this game is evil for definition as nobody is good.
It's just the old, infamous and nauseating "Great Game", using the glamorous experssion created by Rudyard Kipling in his nice novel "Kim", in this game, you and me, we are expendable, as millions other human beings like us, we are just pawns on the same obscene imperialistic old chessboard.
As said wulfgar, also I think that the Eastern States, should think wisely and deeply about their geopolitical position between Germany and Russia:

..To preserve the major part of their independence all these states had to do was not become party with Nato and the EU and not persecute ethic Russians. These states are incapable of doing this, hence they will be made to disappear

This is not a matter of being for Putin, or being against Putin, nor this is a matter about WW3 yes or no, the war is already written, we could still choose at least if its front will run iside the European territory, or outside it.
IMO pushing Putin toward an even closer alliance with Peking, it means bringing the front exactly into Eastern Europe, and I think that this is an idiotic choice, the most idiotic, fool and moronic choice we (Eastern and Western Europeans) can do.

Am I asking for a neutralist position between Peking and USA? No, I'm not, and exactly for this reason I'm ready to sacrifice the East to Putin, only to push the warfront Eastward, out of Europe and forcing Putin to calculate wisely his next moves between Europe and Peking.
So, am I saying that Eastern European people is expendable? Yes, in some way, I am. But .. consider that we all are expendable pawns, on the same chessboard, it's just a matter of moving the front some thousand miles Eastward .. this is the reason why I think that Putin is a very important piece on this old, bloody, obscene chessboard ..

[Lt.-Col. Dan]

@Diocle
So if it's just the same old, infamous and nauseating Great Game, why are you complaining about America and its western or arab allies policy? They're pursuing their goals, just like Russia, China or every other county on this planet, big or small, with the same dirty methods and hypocrisy. The thing is that world affairs is no different from the time we had in school - remember those bullies allways picking on the weaker kids? It's not about who's wright and who's wrong, it's about who's stronger.
One other thing, Diocle. In my country there's a saying: "doua sabii nu incap in aceeasi teaca" meaning: two swords can't fit in the same scabbard". Do you really see China and Russia getting along in the future?

[Mary The Quene]

We're losing Palmyra.

[tomySVK]

We're losing Palmyra.

Horrible news

[Diocle]

@Diocle
So if it's just the same old, infamous and nauseating Great Game, why are you complaining about America and its western or arab allies policy? They're pursuing their goals, just like Russia, China or every other county on this planet, big or small, with the same dirty methods and hypocrisy. The thing is that world affairs is no different from the time we had in school - remember those bullies allways picking on the weaker kids? It's not about who's wright and who's wrong, it's about who's stronger.
One other thing, Diocle. In my country there's a saying: "doua sabii nu incap in aceeasi teaca" meaning: two swords can't fit in the same scabbard". Do you really see China and Russia getting along in the future?

For three reasons:

- I hate theocracies & priests of every kind. Christian Theocracies, Muslim Theocracies, Buddist theocracies, it's the only case in which I follow Oda Nobunaga, when he set fire to the place in which the Ikko Ikki were barricaded.

- I hate the terrorism always. I hate the Islamo-Fasist terrorism, I hate every thing connected with the Wahabite Islamo-Fascism. Terrorism it always useless and dangerous in this case it's also nauseating.

- I hate the idea that we should offer to an impotent failed state/s named Saudi Arabia the destiny of Middle East, for this means opening the Mediterranean Southern front to the most absolute Chaos.


Answering your question: I hope I will never see Russia and China allied against USA and EU, because this would be the end for us.
This is why I can accept a large Russian presence in Eastern Europe, everthing but China!


***


@Julia: Don't give up your hope, we shall prevail.

"VATICINIUM" by Diocle: The Saudi beasts have already lost, sadly they still don't see how astonishingly deep actually is their defeat.

[Reno Melitensis]

This foe me is the end of Palmyra. Even if ISIS are not forced to withdraw from the ruins in 24 hours, they will destroy it because their ignorance and hatred for others is without limit.

Cheers

[Magister Militum Flavius Aetius]

I just heard ISIS/ISIL took Palmyra. No matter what the ruins are doomed, they'll either be destroyed if the city is held, or destroyed during the terrorist retreat.

Palmyra, luckily, is a lynch-pin in the supply chain for much of East Syria, so its capture will not be ignored. There will be a military response by the regime, and probably soon.

[juanplay]

Antiquities are being moved to safe places but colonnades and the bigger structures are at risk. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/21/wo...=top-news&_r=0

I never expected the Syrian army to suffer the current wave of setbacks and losses that experiecned these last weeks, i thought Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah support would maintain the conflict frozen and the lines of fighting stable. Now, it seems the US and Europe are between the sword and the wall, ISIS represents both a military and cultural threat that can no longer be ignored, yet opposing them without supporting Assad is becoming increasingly difficult, but at this point i hope at least for a military intervention to protect the site as unlikely as that is.

[Anna_Gein]

I just heard ISIS/ISIL took Palmyra. No matter what the ruins are doomed, they'll either be destroyed if the city is held, or destroyed during the terrorist retreat.

Palmyra, luckily, is a lynch-pin in the supply chain for much of East Syria, so its capture will not be ignored. There will be a military response by the regime, and probably soon.

The regime attempt to retake it might cause just as much damaged than what these ignorant terrorist could do on their own. I fear

By the way one of the biggest prison in Syria is located in the modern city. For the record it is estimated that as far as 150 000 people were imprisoned at the same moment in Syria during this conflict. And we all know why most of them are improsoned or what they are going through in theses prisons.

[Diocle]

I think that actually ISIS displays an amazingly well detailed knowledge about battlefield and about actual dislocation, amount and movements of the Syrian Army, in this way these beasts are almost always able to jump out from the "nothing" to attack the governative forces and to quickly retreat without suffering serious damages, vanishing once again into the "nothing", this tactical quality, it's just another solid evidence (but, was it really needed?) about a relevant feature of ISIS warfare:

ISIS has a great staellite coverage!

So, congrats to the HI-TECH friends of ISIS! Palmyra kaputt!! BRAVO!!!

[Abdülmecid I]

They won't destroy Pamlyra, they'll sell her. There won't be any major difference for a randdom citizen like me, but at least a rich guy from Los Angeles could still take a bath enjoying the interior of Elahbel tomb:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Quran's directives are fine and all that, but unfortunately they don't produce money like the institution known as the black market. My only hope is that the Syrian Army will manage to launch a successful counter-offensive, recapturing Palmyra and sending some jihadists to their virgins earlier than expected, but tbh I am not very optimist.

[juanplay]

Now that ISIS has Palmyra and given the fact they will probably sell the artifacts they can move to the black market, artifacts that will most likely end up in western museums, do you think these institutions should by these artifacts in order to preserve them? or is this practice just encouraging ISIS to continue its current cultural rampage, and thus should be avoided? what about the rights of the country in which these artifacts happen to be? should they be ignored in order to protect them?